Possible March 5-6, 2013 Snowstorm As of Monday morning, March 4, most of the snow (6 to 9 inches) is expected to fall south of Wood County. The northern edge of the Winter Storm Watch box ends with the Ohio counties along the Michigan border. Monroe County is not under any type of weather watch or advisory. Even if Toledo gets some snow, it will be the heavy, wet snow, since temps are expected to be around 32 degrees. And it will warm into the mid to upper 30s on Wednesday and Thursday and into the 40s for the weekend, so it will be sloppy and messy if we get snow. Last week was horrible with the wet snow, rain, slush, puddles, and overall mess. If it's going to be this "warm," I prefer we get rain or no snow/slop. h2. NWS Stmnt Mon, Mar 4 3:03am urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 303 am est mon mar 4 2013 .an area of low pressure over the northern plains tonight will move southeast across ohio late tuesday and tuesday night. snow associated with this storm will spread across the area tuesday afternoon. periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible tuesday evening and night. this may be the largest snowfall so far this winter for much of the watch area. ohz003-006>008-017>019-027>031-036>038-047-041615- /o.new.kcle.ws.a.0002.130305t1800z-130306t1700z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-crawford- richland-ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...upper sandusky...carey... bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...wooster...marion...mount gilead... millersburg...mount vernon 303 am est mon mar 4 2013 ...winter storm watch in effect from tuesday afternoon through wednesday morning... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter storm watch...which is in effect from tuesday afternoon through wednesday morning. * *accumulations... ++6 to 9 inches.++ the greatest amounts are expected* *+south of a line+ from bowling green to wooster. snowfall totals* *will drop off quickly further north.* * timing...snow will overspread the watch area *tuesday afternoon* *with the heaviest snow expected tuesday evening.* the snow will taper off from west to east on wednesday. * winds...northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * impacts...an accumulation of snow could make for difficult travel. some blowing and drifting is likely as well. * *temperatures...in the lower 30s.* * visibilities...less than one half mile at times. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or the local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings. h2. Forecast Mon, Mar 4 6:35am *Today:* Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around 5 mph. *Tonight:* Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. East winds around 5 mph. *Tuesday:* Cloudy...snow...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation around an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. *Tuesday Night:* Snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. *Wednesday:* Snow likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent. *Wednesday Night:* Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. *Thursday:* Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. *Thursday Night:* Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. *Friday:* Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. *Friday Night:* Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. *Saturday:* Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. *Saturday Night:* Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. *Sunday:* Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s. h2. NWS frcst disc Mon, Mar 4 6:48am area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 648 am est mon mar 4 2013 .short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... have already issued a watch from the sw end of the area. this may be a little overdone and expecting marginal warning criteria at best. went with the watch since for most of the watch area this could be the biggest event of the season. expect greatest accums from fdy to mfd and south. have stretched the watch north into the tol area for coordination purposes. there should be a sharp drop off on snowfall totals on the northern end. will probably end up with a warning for a handful of counties in the south with an advisory further n. like the new 00z ecmwf and have followed it. the nam supports this model so confidence is fairly high. the models having been slowly trending further south with this storm and if this trend continues may end up needing only advisories. the snow should start tomorrow afternoon as it will take some time to overcome the dry ne to e flow at the surface. the snow should peak in intensity during the evening hours and then quickly taper off from west to east early wednesday. if the models are correct much of nw pa could end up dry. not comfortable cutting the bologna that close so will maintain at least chance wording. by wednesday dry weather should prevail with high pressure building over the area thursday and thursday night as well. so in summary... expecting a sharp snowfall gradient with maybe a couple inches east of kcle to around 6 inches south of u.s 30. have used a blend of guidance temps. .long term /friday through sunday/... strong high pressure will be over the region on friday beneath a ridge building aloft. after a cool start to the day...temperatures will recover to near normal values in the low 40s with partly to mostly sunny skies. the exception to this will be ne oh/nw pa where northerly flow off the lake will limit highs to the upper 30s for another day. warming trend will continue on saturday as winds shift around to the south and warm advection increases. model differences increase over the weekend with the evolution of the closed upper low over the western states. the ecmwf and gem hold onto a split upper level pattern longer with a weak cold front brushing the eastern great lakes late saturday while the upper low remains near the 4 corners region. the gfs is much faster to eject energy out of the upper low and try to phase with the northern stream. preference lies with the split flow which will result in warming through the weekend with the next good chance of precipitation holding off until early next week. h2. Links NWS products for the Toledo area: * "Lucas County Zone Forecast and Toledo Express Airport conditions":http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=OHZ003 * "Hazardous Weather Outlook":http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/fl/flus41.kcle.hwo.cle.txt * "Area Forecast Discussion":http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CLE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Map of watches, warnings, and advisories: "Click for county details":http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp?region=mw&setprefs.0.key=SVRMAP&setprefs.0.val=mw#gotoMap !http://icons-pe.wxug.com/data/640x480/2xmw_severe.gif 400x262! #weather #winter #storm