November weather in the Great Lakes Region --(My Nov 14, 2013 comment in a ToledoTalk.com "thread":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165108/14Nov2013/Severe_Weather_-_Nov_17_2013 about possible severe weather on Nov 17, 2013.)-- Thanks for the heads up. I don't include the 4-plus day convective outlook in my "weather web app.":http://toledotalk.com/weather/ bq. _"I don't think it bears reminding of *how violent storms can be in November,* considering what happened just a few years ago."_ more. br. "November weather":http://www.toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/6884/Nov_10_is_5-year_anniversary_of_Ohio_tornado_outbreak#November_Weather in the Great Lakes ... bq. "#":http://www.toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/comments.pl/13/1601#12276 - ... when it comes to volatile weather for the Great Lakes region, I believe November is second after the March-April period. Floods, strong winds, heavy lake-effect snow storms, bitter cold, and warm temps are somewhat common occurrences in November. As one weather dude said, it's winter and summer fighting it out. bq. "#":http://www.toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/comments.pl/20/3206#44654 - A few Novembers ago, the northeast Ohio snowbelt got hammered with a multi-day lake effect snowstorm that dumped snow amounts that were measured in feet not inches. And we're only a few days away from the four-year anniversary of the deadly tornados that hit western Ohio. In the Great Lakes region, I don't think any other month produces the weather extremes like November. To a meteorologist, November is a fascinating time. br. *Nov 10, 2002* The "Veterans Day Weekend tornado outbreak":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Day_Weekend_tornado_outbreak_of_2002 that impacted parts of northwest Ohio "occurred on November 10, 2002.":http://www.toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/6884/Nov_10_is_5-year_anniversary_of_Ohio_tornado_outbreak An F4 tornado "hit":http://www.toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/6884/Nov_10_is_5-year_anniversary_of_Ohio_tornado_outbreak#Van_Wert_tornado_track_map Van Wert, Ohio, killing two people. November 2012 Toledo Blade "story":http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2012/11/11/Storms-fatal-fury-recast-lives-seared-day-into-memories.html about the 10-year anniversary of the Van Wert tornado. 20 tornado touchdowns were recorded in Ohio on Nov 10, 2002. Here are the ones reported closer to Toledo. table{border:1px solid black; width: 600px;}. |*Intensity*|*Location*|*County*|*Time*|*Path Length*|*Damage*| |F1|E of Cygnet|Wood|4:54 pm|4.5 miles|| |F2|N of Fostoria|Hancock, Seneca|4:57 pm|9 miles|| |F0|SE of Perrysburg|Wood|5:10 pm|0.1 mile|| |F3|SE of Tiffin|Seneca|5:15 pm|21 miles|1 death|| |F1|NW of Millbury|Wood|5:19 pm|0.5 mile|| |F1|Fremont|Sandusky|5:20 pm|3.5 miles|| |F2|Port Clinton|Ottawa|5:30 pm|10 miles|| |F1|W of Norwalk|Huron|5:42 pm|7.5 miles|| --(Prior to 2007, the National Weather Service used the "Fujita scale":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujita_scale to rate tornadoes. Now they use the "Enhanced Fujita scale.":http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Fujita_scale )-- br. *Nov 17, 2013* bq. _"Things to keep in mind with these systems. *They don't require the same level of heating* and instability as Spring/Summer events require because storms this time of the year tend to have better upper air dynamics."_ On Nov 10, 2002, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temperature of 66 degrees. The current Toledo "forecast":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast.html calls for high temps on Sun, Nov 17, 2013 to be in the low to mid 60s. While this Sunday may feel relatively nice, the lack of hot weather may be deceiving if all of the other dynamics exist for severe weather. It may not "feel" like a thunderstorm day. I assume that in 2013, more people have the ability to be alerted to bad weather than in 2002. The Van Wert tornado destroyed a movie theater that was mostly evacuated shortly before the tornado hit. Tablets, cell phones, apps, social media. Should be no excuse to be somewhat aware today. And being aware does not mean being hysterical. No need to build bunkers nor cancel anything. *End Toledo Talk comment* [[Posts related to Nov 17, 2013 severe weather]] h2. Tornado to Lake Effect Snow [[Fri evening, Nov 22, 2013 Area Forecast Discussion]] Gaylord, Michigan is located near the top of the lower peninsula of Michigan. Gaylord is the county seat of Otsego County. On Sun, Nov 17, 2013, a small tornado, EF-0, touched down in Otsego County. bq. EF-0 CONFIRMED JUST SOUTH OF EXIT 270 ALONG INTERSTATE 75 IN EXTREME SOUTHERN OSTEGO COUNTY. TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST PAST MILE MARKER 268 AND TRAVELED FOR JUST OVER ... As of Fri, Nov 22, 2013, nearby Antrim County in Michigan is under a Lake Effect Snow Watch. Statement as of 4:15 PM EST on November 22, 2013 ... Lake effect snow watch in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday morning... The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a lake effect snow watch... which is in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Hazardous weather... * a period of heavier snowfall expected overnight with the passage of the Arctic front. * Heavy lake effect snow showers develop on Saturday and persist through Saturday night. * Lake effect snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches by Sunday morning with localized accumulations exceeding 12 inches possible. * Gusty northwest winds will produce some blowing snow and single digit wind chill readings. Impacts... * snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing snow will result in hazardous travel. Precautionary/preparedness actions... * a lake effect snow watch means there is a potential for a large amount of snow in only a few hours. Visibilities and snowfall can vary greatly... impacting travel significantly. To learn more... visit US online at weather.Gov/Gaylord or find US on facebook and twitter. h2. Nov 23, 2013 Statement as of 4:12 AM EST on November 23, 2013 ... Lake effect Snow Advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to 10 am EST Sunday... The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a lake effect Snow Advisory... which is in effect from 10 am this morning to 10 am EST Sunday. Hazardous weather... * timing... lake effect snow showers will develop later this morning and increase in coverage into the afternoon. More organized... stronger... lake effect snow bands are expected to develop later this evening into tonight. * Snow accumulations... 2 to 5 inches. As is typical in lake effect... the highest accumulations will be entirely dependent on the placement of snow bands. Areas outside of the heaviest bands may only see a dusting to 1 inch of snow through Sunday morning. * Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph may lead to some blowing and drifting... especially in open rural areas. Impacts... * hazardous travel conditions due to reduced visibility in lake effect snow. * Untreated roads may become snow covered and slippery. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A lake effect Snow Advisory Means Lake-effect snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas. Lake-effect snow showers typically align themselves in bands and will likely be intense enough to drop several inches in localized areas. Use caution when traveling. hr. 11/23/2013 0900 am 10 miles S of Grayling, Crawford County. Snow m3.0 inch, reported by spotter. 12 hr total thru 9 am. Snowdepth 3 in. 11/23/2013 0900 am 10 miles S of Grayling, Crawford County. Snow m3.0 inch, reported by spotter. 12 hr total thru 9 am. Snowdepth 3 in. hr. Antrim, MI Lake Effect Snow Warning Statement as of 9:55 AM EST on November 23, 2013 ... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST Sunday... A lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST Sunday. Hazardous weather... * through late morning: lake snow showers will continue... with 1 to 2 inches of snow by noon under the heaviest and most persistent bands. * This afternoon and tonight: widespread lake effect snows will occur... but with one or two primary heavy snow bands likely to dominate. * Storm total snowfall: as is typical with lake effect snow... accumulations will vary widely across the warned area. Storm total accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches will be the most common... but accumulations over 12 inches will likely occur under the most persistent and heaviest snow bands. Areas outside of the heaviest bands may only see a few inches of snow through tonight. * Other hazards: gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph will lead to some blowing and drifting snow. In addition... wind chill readings will fall to around zero at times. Impacts... * snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing snow will result in hazardous travel. Precautionary/preparedness actions... * a lake effect snow warning means localized heavy lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel very hazardous. * We welcome your snowfall reports anytime at 1-800-647-8676 or online via facebook and twitter. hr. 11/23/2013 0852 am Alba, Antrim County. Snow m3.5 inch, reported by spotter. 12 hr total thru 9 am. Snowdepth 5 in. 11/23/2013 0852 am Alba, Antrim County. Snow m3.5 inch, reported by spotter. 12 hr total thru 9 am. Snowdepth 5 in. hr. Grand Traverse Lake Effect Snow Warning Statement as of 9:55 AM EST on November 23, 2013 ... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST Sunday... A lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST Sunday. Hazardous weather... * through late morning: lake snow showers will continue... with 1 to 2 inches of snow by noon under the heaviest and most persistent bands. * This afternoon and tonight: widespread lake effect snows will occur... but with one or two primary heavy snow bands likely to dominate. * Storm total snowfall: as is typical with lake effect snow... accumulations will vary widely across the warned area. Storm total accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches will be the most common... but accumulations over 12 inches will likely occur under the most persistent and heaviest snow bands. Areas outside of the heaviest bands may only see a few inches of snow through tonight. * Other hazards: gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph will lead to some blowing and drifting snow. In addition... wind chill readings will fall to around zero at times. Impacts... * snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing snow will result in hazardous travel. Precautionary/preparedness actions... * a lake effect snow warning means localized heavy lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel very hazardous. * We welcome your snowfall reports anytime at 1-800-647-8676 or online via facebook and twitter. hr. Missaukee, MI Lake Effect Snow Warning Statement as of 9:55 AM EST on November 23, 2013 ... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST Sunday... A lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 7 am EST Sunday. Hazardous weather... * through late morning: lake snow showers will continue... with 1 to 2 inches of snow by noon under the heaviest and most persistent bands. * This afternoon and tonight: widespread lake effect snows will occur... but with one or two primary heavy snow bands likely to dominate. * Storm total snowfall: as is typical with lake effect snow... accumulations will vary widely across the warned area. Storm total accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches will be the most common... but accumulations over 12 inches will likely occur under the most persistent and heaviest snow bands. Areas outside of the heaviest bands may only see a few inches of snow through tonight. * Other hazards: gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph will lead to some blowing and drifting snow. In addition... wind chill readings will fall to around zero at times. Impacts... * snow covered roads and poor visibility in falling and blowing snow will result in hazardous travel. Precautionary/preparedness actions... * a lake effect snow warning means localized heavy lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel very hazardous. * We welcome your snowfall reports anytime at 1-800-647-8676 or online via facebook and twitter. hr. Ashtabula Inland Lake Effect Snow Warning Statement as of 10:15 AM EST on November 23, 2013 ... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until midnight EST Sunday night... * accumulations... total accumulations of 6 inches to around one foot are forecast by midnight Sunday night. The highest accumulations will be across the higher terrain of inland northwest Pennsylvania. * Timing... lake effect snow will develop this afternoon and continue tonight and Sunday before tapering off Sunday evening. The snow will become heavy at times... especially tonight and early Sunday. * Winds... northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph on Saturday night... decreasing on Sunday afternoon. * Impacts... motorists should be alert for rapidly changing conditions that occur within bands of lake effect snow. Blowing and drifting snow is also likely. * Temperatures... will fall to the near 20 degrees Saturday night and and hold nearly steady on Sunday. * Visibilities... could be below a quarter of a mile at times. Precautionary/preparedness actions... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in Road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates. #weather - #blog_jr