Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013 *8:05 p.m. - Sat, Nov 16, 2013 summary* Highest tornado threat timeline for Sun, Nov 17: * 12PM - SW MI, Much of Indiana, S Illinois * 3PM - SC MI, NW OH, Indiana, S IL, W KY, W TN * 6PM - W OH, S IN, Ohio River Valley in KY ** better dynamics may be near the TOL area where Ohio is concerned Tornado threat should diminish after 7-8pm on Sunday. Precip timing for NW OH: * 4AM - Scattered showers NW OH * 7AM - Light to moderate rain N OH * 10AM - Isolated sprinkles otherwise dry * 1PM - Mostly dry, maybe and isolated shower developing. * 4PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain * 7PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain * 10PM - Storms, moderate rain ending * 1AM - Dry Other forecast info for Sun, Nov 17: * Wind gusts to near 40 mph should develop in northwest Ohio after 2 pm. * Skies are expected to be mostly cloudy on Sunday but some breaks are possible ahead of the front. * Any peaks of sun could result in pockets of higher temperatures, a jump in instability, and better mixing, increasing the chances for severe weather. * Dewpoints will surge up immediately ahead of the cold front with a narrow corridor approaching 60 degrees. * The better placement for supercells will be from northern Indiana into southeast Michigan ahead of the cold front with the convection transitioning to more of a linear mode as it pushes east across Ohio during the evening. * Still expecting the primary severe weather threat to be strong damaging winds with the potential for gusts of 70-80 mph. * Any discrete cells could be supercellular in nature and pose a threat of tornadoes. * Isolated tornadoes are also possible with breaks in the line along the cold front. * The threat of the severe weather in northwest Ohio will increase between 5-8 pm. * The period of showers will not last long with the frontal passage as the airmass dries out quickly with strong subsidence. * Westerly winds will gust to 40-50 mph Sunday night and a wind advisory may be needed. hr. Some info comes from Nov 14, 2013 12:43:18 pm Toledo Talk thread created by JustaSooner titled "Severe Weather - Nov 17, 2013":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165108/16Nov2013/Severe_Weather_-_Nov_17_2013 h2. Nov 14 comments *Forecast for Nov 17, 2013* bq. _"Things to keep in mind with these systems. *They don't require the same level of heating* and instability as Spring/Summer events require because storms this time of the year tend to have better upper air dynamics."_ On Nov 10, 2002, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temperature of 66 degrees. The current Toledo "forecast":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast.html calls for high temps on Sun, Nov 17, 2013 to be in the low to mid 60s. While this Sunday may feel relatively nice, the lack of hot weather may be deceiving if all of the other dynamics exist for severe weather. It may not "feel" like a thunderstorm day. I assume that in 2013, more people have the ability to be alerted to bad weather than in 2002. The Van Wert tornado destroyed a movie theater that was mostly evacuated shortly before the tornado hit. Tablets, cell phones, apps, social media. Should be no excuse to be somewhat aware today. And being aware does not mean being hysterical. No need to build bunkers nor cancel anything. posted by jr on Nov 14, 2013 at 03:51:56 pm h2. Nov 17-18 forecast issued on Nov 15 A slight diff in the forecasts between Sun and Mon: bq. *Sunday:* Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. bq. *Monday:* A chance of rain showers before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Since temps are expected to fall all day Monday, temps will probably be in the 30s on Monday afternoon, which will be about 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier. Tuesday's high temp is forecast to be in the mid 30s. Toledo's record high temp for Nov 17 is 71 degrees set in 1931. Current forecast discussion from the Cleveland NWS: q. a big change is coming through this period as a november gale develops across the great lakes region over the weekend. potential still exists at this time that we will likely see at least wind advisories posted for sunday into monday. potential does exist that we will need to go higher with high wind warnings. cold front sweeps through the area sunday night and the overnight lows could possibly be the high for the day on monday. we should see nearly steady or falling temperatures during the day monday and into monday night. q.. The SPC's day 3 (Sunday) convective outlook includes all of Ohio and southeast Michigan in the Slight risk for severe thunderstorms. posted by jr on Nov 15, 2013 at 06:02:35 am h2. SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook Issued on Fri, Nov 15, 2013 for Sun, Nov 17. spc ac 150830 day 3 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0230 am cst fri nov 15 2013 valid 171200z - 181200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over a portion of the tn and oh valleys and great lakes areas... ...synopsis... a shortwave trough with attendant strong upper jet embedded within base of the synoptic trough will eject negatively tilted through the mid ms and oh valleys sunday...reaching a portion of the nern u.s. toward the end of the period. this feature will induce a sfc cyclone that is forecast to undergo significant deepening as it moves newd from the upper ms valley into the great lakes sunday afternoon. cold front trailing from the low will sweep through the mid ms...oh and tn valleys...while a warm front lifts nwd through the oh valley and great lakes. ...oh and tn valley regions... a strong 50+ kt swly llj will advect partially modified gulf air with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s into the oh valley and great lakes region with mid 60s likely farther south across the tn valley area. the moisture return will be accompanied by widespread clouds that will limit diabatic heating of the boundary layer in much of pre-frontal warm sector. moreover...areas of showers and a few thunderstorms will probably be ongoing over a portion of the oh valley warm sector. thus the primary destabilization mechanism will probably be moisture advection...but sfc based instability will likely remain somewhat marginal /mlcape aob 500 j/kg/...especially with nwd and ewd extent into the oh valley and great lakes. nevertheless...the deepening cyclone will be accompanied by an increase in frontogenetic forcing along the cold front sweeping ewd through the oh valley. storms may increase during the day along pre-frontal warm conveyor belt beneath diffluent upper jet exit region. other storms will initiate along strengthening cold front. potential will exist for pre-frontal storms to develop supercell structures given strength of vertical shear and size of hodographs along llj...but extent of any tornado threat will depend on degree of boundary layer destabilization. otherwise...storms will likely evolve into lines along the cold front with a threat for widespread damaging wind as the activity develops ewd through the oh and tn valley regions. ...ny and pa... storms will eventually outpace the moist axis sunday night and encounter much weaker instability as they approach the nern states. however...at least a modest threat for isolated damaging wind with remaining low topped convection cannot be ruled out late this period. ..dial.. 11/15/2013 click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z h2. Fri, Nov 15 Hzrd Outlk hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 503 pm est fri nov 15 2013 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-162215- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 503 pm est fri nov 15 2013 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...saturday through thursday. there is a slight risk of severe weather late sunday afternoon and sunday evening with the passage of a strong cold front. the primary threat will be strong thunderstorm winds but there will be a chance of tornadoes. there is a chance that winds will be fairly gusty ahead of the front on sunday but the strongest winds are expected behind the cold front sunday night. winds may gust to 50 mph and a wind advisory may be needed. strong winds may continue along the lakeshore into monday. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon through late sunday evening. $$ h2. Fri night info, Nov 15 bq. _"what's going to happen and when."_ Tune in on Sunday morning. At that time, the NWS should have a pretty good idea on the who, what, when, and where. But here's a little taste from the most recent "hazardous outlook":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/hazardous-weather-outlook.html message issued by the Cleveland NWS at 5:03 p.m. on Fri, Nov 15, 2013: q. there is a slight risk of severe weather *late sunday afternoon and sunday evening* with the passage of a strong cold front. the primary threat will be strong thunderstorm winds but there will be a *chance of tornadoes.* there is a chance that winds will be fairly gusty ahead of the front on sunday but the strongest winds are expected behind the cold front sunday night. *winds may gust to 50 mph* and a wind advisory may be needed. strong winds may continue along the lakeshore into monday. q.. And for the SKYWARN people: q. spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon through late sunday evening. q.. My big concern is that the NFL broadcasts could be interrupted by the local TV weather people. From the "forecast discussion":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html issued by the Cleveland NWS at 9:40 p.m. on Fri, Nov 15, 2013: q. *interesting weather* setting up during this time frame as the warm sector approaches the area with a strong wind field in place. "spc":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/convective-outlook.html has the entire area in a slight risk for severe storms which *will be conditional on the degree of heating* and instability that can be materialized. we could see a break in the showers during the daytime hours [Sunday] with showers and thunderstorms developing as the cold front approaches late in the day. southerly winds will range from 20-30 mph with a few gusts to 40 mph possible. *expecting skies to stay mostly cloudy* but if we do end up with some breaks in the clouds then winds could be stronger. *temperatures on sunday will be critical to the severe weather potential and effected by coverage of showers.* q.. I assume that means that the NWS won't know for certain until Sunday. If the region has more sunshine than expected, then the severe potential increases. But if Sunday is cloudy and a bit rainy ahead of the front, then I'm guessing that the severe threat decreases. I'll defer to JustaSooner. A bit more from the forecast discussion: q. character of the severe weather will depend on instability with line segments producing damaging winds the most likely scenario. however...there will also be a threat for mini-supercells and tornadoes given the tremendous shear. winds will remain gusty sunday night behind the front and a wind advisory may be needed with gusts of 40-50 mph possible. temperatures will drop back into the mid 40s by monday morning with falling temperatures continuing monday afternoon. winds will remain gusty on monday...especially near the lakeshore. q.. !http://i.imgur.com/hk7X4Sj.jpg! posted by jr on Nov 15, 2013 at 10:33:14 pm h2. Sat, Nov 16 It's a bit unusual for our area to be under a *Moderate Risk* for severe weather at any time of the year, especially on the Day 2 Outlook. The latest hazardous weather outlook: q. a squall line is expected to develop and move across the local area late sunday and sunday evening. very strong winds are expected just off the surface. heavy rain from the squall line could bring these strong winds down to the surface causing widespread damage. *this is very dangerous situation.* in addition...strong and gusty winds are expected behind the cold front responsible for the squall line. wind advisories may be needed sunday night into monday. q.. br. From the most recent area forecast discussion: q. it's going to be a busy period with a lot of weather. we are basically expecting a 6 hour or so period of showers late tonight and sunday morning probably followed by a period of dry weather and then another round of showers and storms late sunday and sunday evening. *this second round of precip is potentially very dangerous* the cold front associated with the low will sweep east across the area sunday night. a pre frontal squall line moving at considerable speed is expected. *widespread wind damage appears to be a possibility* and the severe weather outlook has been upgraded to moderate which seem reasonable. q.. br. From the Storm Prediction Center q. potential exists for a widespread damaging wind event and a few tornadoes sunday afternoon and night...especially in and near the moderate risk area across parts of the oh valley and great lakes. however...degree of the tornado threat /should these storms develop/ will depend on magnitude of destabilization within the warm sector boundary layer. otherwise...storms should initiate along strengthening cold front from the great lakes swwd into the mid ms and tn valleys and subsequently develop ewd. given strength of vertical shear...these storms will likely evolve into an organized linear mcs with lewp and bow echo structures capable of producing widespread damaging wind. isolated tornadoes associated with embedded meso-vortices also will be possible with the squall line. q.. br. If a line of storms does form, it will move into the area quickly with not a lot of advance warning, and any storm could be brief but intense. Regardless, it will be windy on Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday morning. Lake Erie forecast: q. *sunday night...* southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and increasing to gales to 40 knots overnight. rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. strong wind gusts possible in thunderstorms. *waves 3 to 5 feet building to 10 to 14 feet.* q.. posted by jr on Nov 16, 2013 at 10:18:26 am hr. From the latest SPC statement, it appears that the highest tornado risk will be west of the Toledo area, but our area could still receive strong thunderstorm winds. ... indicate development of supercells along/ahead of the cold front across parts of il/indiana and srn lower mi along/ahead of the strongest ewd surge of the cold front. these will have a window of opportunity from mid-late afternoon into the early evening to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts...severe hail and possibly several tornadoes /some strong/. with time...convection is expected to develop into bowing linear structures and spread rapidly ewd/newd across the lower great lakes/upper oh valley with the primary severe threat transitioning to potentially widespread damaging wind gusts. the fast-moving lines will move progressively into lesser instability...however vertical transfer of strong horizontal momentum to the surface may maintain a threat for wind damage through much of the overnight hours. posted by jr on Nov 16, 2013 at 01:38:27 pm h2. Sat, Nov 16 HWO hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 417 pm est sat nov 16 2013 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-172130- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 417 pm est sat nov 16 2013 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. the storm prediction center has indicated that there is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms on sunday afternoon and evening. a squall line is expected to develop and move across the local area late sunday and sunday evening. very strong winds are expected just off the surface. heavy rain from the squall line could bring these strong winds down to the surface causing widespread damage. this is a very dangerous situation. isolated tornadoes will also be possible. in addition...strong and gusty winds are expected behind the cold front overnight. wind advisories may be needed sunday night...possibly continuing along the eastern lakeshore into monday. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon through late sunday evening. h2. Sat, Nov 16 AFD fxus61 kcle 162349 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 649 pm est sat nov 16 2013 synopsis... low pressure will rapidly deepen as it tracks from the plains to the the upper great lakes on sunday. a very strong cold front extending south from the low will sweep across the local area late sunday and sunday evening. high pressure will slowly build over the region from the southwest the first half of the work week. && near term /until 6 am sunday morning/... showers are on schedule moving east and of course worried about some showers developing in the warm advection. made some minor changes to the pops for this evening over eastern ohio. temperatures may not drop that much. previous discussion... the upper level trough will deepen over the plains tonight with one area of low pressure tracking northeast towards lake superior and the other towards iowa. meanwhile a 145 knot upper level jet and accompanying 50 knot llj near 850mb will slide northeast up the ohio valley with increasing low level moisture advection. showers will overspread the area from west to east...mainly after midnight...with good low level moisture convergence and large scale ascent provided by the left exit region of the upper level jet. raised pops to near 100 percent for areas west of cleveland...tapering down to 70 percent towards erie pa. have also included a chance of thunderstorms into the forecast as some degree of elevated instability develops. a few of the thunderstorms in northwest ohio could be fairly robust with strong shear in the column but expecting low levels to be too stable to bring the strong winds down to the ground. there will be some breaks in the clouds late this afternoon and evening before the moisture ramps up with overcast skies later tonight. expect to reach the low temperature for tonight this evening with both temperatures and dewpoints rising towards dawn. low will only drop to the low 50s this evening. && short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/... there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather on sunday. showers with a chance of thunderstorms will linger into sunday morning across the eastern counties...shifting southeast with time as the mid-level dry slot overspreads northern ohio and lake erie. most areas will see a break in the precipitation during the late morning/afternoon before chances of showers and thunderstorms increase later in the day ahead of the cold front. the storm prediction center has placed most of the forecast area in a moderate risk for severe weather with the potential for significant severe weather outbreak. this occurs as low pressure moving out of the plains undergoes rapid deepening while tracking from near chicago to north of lake huron...pulling a cold front east across the area during the late afternoon/evening hours. a strong wind field will be in place aloft on sunday but stable conditions in the low levels will limit higher gusts from mixing down for most of the day...with gusts near 40 mph starting to develop in primarily nw ohio after 2 pm. skies are expected to be mostly cloudy on sunday but some breaks are possible ahead of the front. any peaks of sun could result in pockets of higher temperatures...a jump in instability...and better mixing. dewpoints will surge up immediately ahead of the cold front with a narrow corridor approaching 60 degrees. there have been some interesting trends observed in the models over the last 48 hours. the upper level trough does not deepen as much to our west and the stronger dynamics associated with the trough becoming negatively tilted may actually be focused slightly further north from southern michigan into ontario. agree with spc that the better placement for supercells will be from nrn indiana into se michigan ahead of the cold front with the convection transitioning to more of a linear mode as it pushes east across ohio during the evening. with that in mind...still expecting the primary severe weather threat to be strong damaging winds with the potential for gusts of 70-80 mph with a 110 knot jet streak at 500mb. it is unclear if we will see much convection develop out ahead of the front and that will be something to watch on sunday. any discrete cells could be supercellular in nature and pose a threat of tornadoes. isolated tornadoes are also possible with breaks in the line along the cold front. the threat of the severe weather will increase between 5-8 pm in nw ohio...7-10 pm towards cleveland and 9-midnight in erie. the period of showers will not last long with the frontal passage as the airmass dries out quickly with strong subsidence. westerly winds will gust to 40-50 mph overnight and a wind advisory may be needed...possibly continuing along the east lakeshore on monday. conditions will become more favorable for lake effect snow showers as temperatures drop into the 30s on monday night. minor accumulations will be possible in the snow belt but will end fairly quickly on tuesday as high pressure expands over the ohio valley. && long term /wednesday through saturday/... high pressure will cross the lower great lakes tuesday into wednesday with the return south flow developing by wednesday although temperatures will likely stay shy of normal. some question by thursday as too how far the next cold front will advance. the ecmwf pushes the front well south of the area whereas the other models hang the front in the vicinity of the forecast area. the ecmwf is often too aggressive with the southern extent of these types of fronts but with a large high pressure area over eastern canada we will eventually see a wind shift and cooler air will filter in. so...probably less chance of rain that the ecmwf would lead to believe and not as cool...but a little cooler than the gfs. probably a better chance of rain by the end of the week with the next surface wave but the models are poor and locating these frontal waves as well. not much confidence in any aspect of the forecast late in the week with a lot of compromise to temps and pops. && aviation /00z sunday through thursday/... rain showers creeping into area from the west with warm front. should reach the tol area toward midnight local and spread east across the area overnight. doubts in my mind as to how widespread ifr cigs will be overnight. expect a quarter inch of rain or so from the rain showers and then a lull by mid morning across the area. south to southwest winds will increase sunday with winds gusts into the mid 30s possible by late afternoon. outlook...non vfr conditions likely much of sunday. strong tsra possible sunday evening with high winds. non-vfr conditions will continue monday with a few shra. a few shsn monday night...mainly across ne oh/nw pa. conditions improving to vfr from west to east tuesday. && marine... will go ahead and post the gale warning. it will not officially start until sunday evening but it will get the information out and preclude the issuance of small craft advisories ahead of the warning. the south wind will be strongest sunday in the nearshore downslope areas from about fairport harbor east to buffalo and then across the lake toward long point. the warm air and stable situation will keep the wind somewhat in check elsewhere ion lake erie on sunday but as the cold front approaches the mixing of the low level jet will increase late in the day and especially sunday evening. as the front passes and cold advection begins sunday night...the gales will develop...lasting into monday before diminishing monday evening. there is a small chance for a brief period of storm force winds early monday morning but if it would happen it would be brief and localized and it is more likely the wind will peak in the 40 knot range. low water advisories may be needed on the western basin monday morning. high pressure will build across the lower great lakes by mid week. the next cold front is due thursday. the strength of the front is in question so will not commit to any moderate or strong winds yet although the ecmwf has been advertising a good gradient. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...gale warning from 6 pm sunday to 4 pm est monday for lez061- 142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec/kieltyka short term...kec long term...kosarik aviation...djb marine...kosarik h2. Sat, Nov 16 SPC Day 2 CO !http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2817/10895209913_2eb7549eee.jpg! day 2 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1132 am cst sat nov 16 2013 valid 171200z - 181200z ...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms over parts of ern il...extreme sern wi...srn lower mi...oh...indiana...and nrn ky... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the mid-south/tn valley into the great lakes region... ...potential exists for a widespread damaging wind event and several tornadoes /some possibly strong/ sunday afternoon and night across parts of the oh valley and great lakes... ...synopsis... longwave trough currently over the wrn us is forecast to intensify through sunday as a very strong mid-level jet streak digs sewd across the great basin and central rockies before progressing ewd across the central plains/mid ms valley during the afternoon. the upper trough is forecast to become negatively-tilted as it lifts newd across the great lakes region during the second half of the period. at the surface...an intense deepening low is forecast to move from ia toward ern lake superior during the day and progress into ern ontario and wrn quebec at night. a strong cold front will arc swd from the low with the nrn part of the front accelerating across the great lakes region. the srn part of the front is expected to lag swwd...reaching an ern lower mi/srn indiana/central ar/nrn tx line by 18/00z...and ern ny/nrn va/wrn nc/nrn ga and lower ms valley by the end of the period. ...oh valley into the srn great lakes... overnight storms may be continuing from parts of the oh valley swwd across the mid-south/tn valley in association with a weak shortwave trough and low level warm advection. this activity may contain a more limited severe threat for hail and strong/severe wind gusts as it shifts ewd/newd with time. although dynamic forcing for large scale ascent is expected to remain primarily north of this area...sufficient deep layer shear will support organized storm structures including potential for isolated supercells. the primary severe threat is expected to develop during the late morning into early/mid afternoon from ern ia into parts of nrn/central il...then spread ewd through the overnight hours across the great lakes and oh valley. strong sswly low level winds will continue to advect moisture nwd toward the deepening surface low with 60-65f dew points reaching as far north as nrn parts of il and indiana. a plume of steeper mid level lapse rates is forecast to extend ewd from the central plains toward the srn great lakes and will contribute to increased instability with cape of 1000-1500 j/kg forecast across parts of il and indiana. strong/severe storms may develop as early as mid/late morning over parts of ern ia near the surface low and advancing cold front...then increase in coverage into nrn/central il during the afternoon as strong dynamic forcing within the left exit region of the mid/upper level jet streak overspreads the low level moisture/instability axis. forecast soundings indicate development of clockwise turning low-level hodograph structures in association with strong veering wind profiles. several 12z convection-allowing models /especially the 4 km wrf-nssl and 1.3 km nam fire nest/ indicate development of supercells along/ahead of the cold front across parts of il/indiana and srn lower mi along/ahead of the strongest ewd surge of the cold front. these will have a window of opportunity from mid-late afternoon into the early evening to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts...severe hail and possibly several tornadoes /some strong/. with time...convection is expected to develop into bowing linear structures and spread rapidly ewd/newd across the lower great lakes/upper oh valley with the primary severe threat transitioning to potentially widespread damaging wind gusts. the fast-moving lines will move progressively into lesser instability...however vertical transfer of strong horizontal momentum to the surface may maintain a threat for wind damage through much of the overnight hours. ..weiss.. 11/16/2013 click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z page created: Nov 16, 2013 - 7:30 p.m. EST h2. Nov 16 JustaSooner's analysis !http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7336/10894960126_1940d91a82.jpg! The two lines of storms is the concerning part. Obviously exact cell placement has a margin of error, so this can't be used as an actual guide of who gets hit and who doesn't. However, seeing a line of broken supercells on the back edge with the front but also isolated supercells ahead of that main line makes it pretty concerning. Anything that can start isolated ahead of the main line is what I would be most concerned about. You can't read into what they are saying as the highest tornado risk will be west of Toledo. The highest tornado risk is going to be with any storm that can remain isolated and doesn't get undercut by outflow. Widespread damaging winds will kick in once we see things line out. Could still see a few embedded rotations/quick spin ups, but later into the evening things go the lower the tornado threat - as it looks now. Don't try to read into it right now on too micro of a level. posted by JustaSooner on Nov 16, 2013 at 01:51:31 pm hr. Highest tornado threat timeline tomorrow... 12PM - SW MI, Much of Indiana, S Illinois 3PM - SC MI, NW OH, Indiana, S IL, W KY, W TN 6PM - W OH (better dynamics may be near the TOL area where Ohio is concerned), S IN, Ohio River Valley in KY Tornado threat should be down quit a bit after 7-8pm tomorrow. Precip timing for NW OH... 4AM - Scattered showers NW OH 7AM - Light to moderate rain N OH 10AM - Isolated sprinkles otherwise dry 1PM - Mostly dry, maybe and isolated shower developing. 4PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain 7PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain 10PM - Storms, moderate rain ending 1AM - Dry posted by JustaSooner on Nov 16, 2013 at 06:51:08 pm h2. Sat, Nov 16 Wind Advisory Issued by the N. IN NWS office that includes Fulton and Henry counties. The Cleveland and Pontiac, MI offices have not issued any such statements. Statement as of 9:03 PM CST on November 16, 2013 ... Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon EST /11 am CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Sunday... Hazardous weather... * southerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Sunday afternoon will turn westerly by Sunday evening. * Higher gusts and significant wind damage will be possible with any thunderstorms. Impacts... * scattered power outages possible. * Winds strong enough to make driving difficult in open areas. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 mph... or gusts over 45 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. h2. Nov 17 - A THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR SUNDAY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS STRONG UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SENDS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE EAST TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. SIG MOIST LATENT HEAT RELEASE WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO...IN TANDEM WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS DEEP PV ANOMALY ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE TILT WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM IOWA AT 12Z TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY 00Z. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER LAKES REGION BECOMING ENTRENCHED IN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME SUNDAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN ROLL EAST THROUGH WESTERN AREAS EARLY/MID AFTN AND OUR OHIO COUNTIES LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. EXPECT SOME SFC HEATING AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY IN WARM SECTOR. CHANCES FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVE CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AND BETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN. LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF LOW TOPPED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN GIVEN POTENTIAL LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FEATURE WITH NO CAP AS DEEP UVM PLUME OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WHICH REMAINS A QUESTION MARK AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTN...DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THEN MERGING INTO A LEWP/QLCS/SQUALL LINE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN AND EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. HOW SEVERE/WIDESPREAD THIS CONVECTION ENDS UP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW EFFICIENT THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL BE ATTAINABLE WITH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING UP TO 1500 J/KG. FLOW/SHEAR/LOW LVL HELICITY IS OFF THE CHARTS WITH A 120-130 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX NOSING INTO THE AREA. THE EXPECTATION FOR WEAK/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND SUCH A STRONG WIND FIELD (LINE NORMAL 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES APPROACHING 50 KNOTS!) HINT AT A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WX EVENT...WITH RIJ/BOWING SEGMENTS AND STEEPENING LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AUGMENTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MESOVORT TORNADOES. LOW LCL'S IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ALSO SUGGEST AN ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR PUSHING 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THIS ADDED A TOR MENTION TO THE GRIDS. STAY TUNED AS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX/TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SUN AFTN/EVE. ! posted by JustaSooner on Nov 17, 2013 at 12:44:15 am # + #weather - #toledo - #blog_jr