Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013 *8:05 p.m. - Sat, Nov 16, 2013 summary* Highest tornado threat timeline for Sun, Nov 17: * 12PM - SW MI, Much of Indiana, S Illinois * 3PM - SC MI, NW OH, Indiana, S IL, W KY, W TN * 6PM - W OH, S IN, Ohio River Valley in KY ** better dynamics may be near the TOL area where Ohio is concerned Tornado threat should diminish after 7-8pm on Sunday. Precip timing for NW OH: * 4AM - Scattered showers NW OH * 7AM - Light to moderate rain N OH * 10AM - Isolated sprinkles otherwise dry * 1PM - Mostly dry, maybe and isolated shower developing. * 4PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain * 7PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain * 10PM - Storms, moderate rain ending * 1AM - Dry Other forecast info for Sun, Nov 17: * Wind gusts to near 40 mph should develop in northwest Ohio after 2 pm. * Skies are expected to be mostly cloudy on Sunday but some breaks are possible ahead of the front. * Any peaks of sun could result in pockets of higher temperatures, a jump in instability, and better mixing, increasing the chances for severe weather. * Dewpoints will surge up immediately ahead of the cold front with a narrow corridor approaching 60 degrees. * The better placement for supercells will be from northern Indiana into southeast Michigan ahead of the cold front with the convection transitioning to more of a linear mode as it pushes east across Ohio during the evening. * Still expecting the primary severe weather threat to be strong damaging winds with the potential for gusts of 70-80 mph. * Any discrete cells could be supercellular in nature and pose a threat of tornadoes. * Isolated tornadoes are also possible with breaks in the line along the cold front. * The threat of the severe weather in northwest Ohio will increase between 5-8 pm. * The period of showers will not last long with the frontal passage as the airmass dries out quickly with strong subsidence. * Westerly winds will gust to 40-50 mph Sunday night and a wind advisory may be needed. hr. Some info comes from Nov 14, 2013 12:43:18 pm Toledo Talk thread created by JustaSooner titled "Severe Weather - Nov 17, 2013":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165108/16Nov2013/Severe_Weather_-_Nov_17_2013 h2. Nov 14 comments *Forecast for Nov 17, 2013* bq. _"Things to keep in mind with these systems. *They don't require the same level of heating* and instability as Spring/Summer events require because storms this time of the year tend to have better upper air dynamics."_ On Nov 10, 2002, Toledo Express Airport recorded a high temperature of 66 degrees. The current Toledo "forecast":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast.html calls for high temps on Sun, Nov 17, 2013 to be in the low to mid 60s. While this Sunday may feel relatively nice, the lack of hot weather may be deceiving if all of the other dynamics exist for severe weather. It may not "feel" like a thunderstorm day. I assume that in 2013, more people have the ability to be alerted to bad weather than in 2002. The Van Wert tornado destroyed a movie theater that was mostly evacuated shortly before the tornado hit. Tablets, cell phones, apps, social media. Should be no excuse to be somewhat aware today. And being aware does not mean being hysterical. No need to build bunkers nor cancel anything. posted by jr on Nov 14, 2013 at 03:51:56 pm h2. Nov 17-18 forecast issued on Nov 15 A slight diff in the forecasts between Sun and Mon: bq. *Sunday:* Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. bq. *Monday:* A chance of rain showers before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Since temps are expected to fall all day Monday, temps will probably be in the 30s on Monday afternoon, which will be about 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier. Tuesday's high temp is forecast to be in the mid 30s. Toledo's record high temp for Nov 17 is 71 degrees set in 1931. Current forecast discussion from the Cleveland NWS: q. a big change is coming through this period as a november gale develops across the great lakes region over the weekend. potential still exists at this time that we will likely see at least wind advisories posted for sunday into monday. potential does exist that we will need to go higher with high wind warnings. cold front sweeps through the area sunday night and the overnight lows could possibly be the high for the day on monday. we should see nearly steady or falling temperatures during the day monday and into monday night. q.. The SPC's day 3 (Sunday) convective outlook includes all of Ohio and southeast Michigan in the Slight risk for severe thunderstorms. posted by jr on Nov 15, 2013 at 06:02:35 am h2. SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook Issued on Fri, Nov 15, 2013 for Sun, Nov 17. spc ac 150830 day 3 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0230 am cst fri nov 15 2013 valid 171200z - 181200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over a portion of the tn and oh valleys and great lakes areas... ...synopsis... a shortwave trough with attendant strong upper jet embedded within base of the synoptic trough will eject negatively tilted through the mid ms and oh valleys sunday...reaching a portion of the nern u.s. toward the end of the period. this feature will induce a sfc cyclone that is forecast to undergo significant deepening as it moves newd from the upper ms valley into the great lakes sunday afternoon. cold front trailing from the low will sweep through the mid ms...oh and tn valleys...while a warm front lifts nwd through the oh valley and great lakes. ...oh and tn valley regions... a strong 50+ kt swly llj will advect partially modified gulf air with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s into the oh valley and great lakes region with mid 60s likely farther south across the tn valley area. the moisture return will be accompanied by widespread clouds that will limit diabatic heating of the boundary layer in much of pre-frontal warm sector. moreover...areas of showers and a few thunderstorms will probably be ongoing over a portion of the oh valley warm sector. thus the primary destabilization mechanism will probably be moisture advection...but sfc based instability will likely remain somewhat marginal /mlcape aob 500 j/kg/...especially with nwd and ewd extent into the oh valley and great lakes. nevertheless...the deepening cyclone will be accompanied by an increase in frontogenetic forcing along the cold front sweeping ewd through the oh valley. storms may increase during the day along pre-frontal warm conveyor belt beneath diffluent upper jet exit region. other storms will initiate along strengthening cold front. potential will exist for pre-frontal storms to develop supercell structures given strength of vertical shear and size of hodographs along llj...but extent of any tornado threat will depend on degree of boundary layer destabilization. otherwise...storms will likely evolve into lines along the cold front with a threat for widespread damaging wind as the activity develops ewd through the oh and tn valley regions. ...ny and pa... storms will eventually outpace the moist axis sunday night and encounter much weaker instability as they approach the nern states. however...at least a modest threat for isolated damaging wind with remaining low topped convection cannot be ruled out late this period. ..dial.. 11/15/2013 click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z h2. Fri, Nov 15 Hzrd Outlk hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 503 pm est fri nov 15 2013 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-162215- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 503 pm est fri nov 15 2013 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...saturday through thursday. there is a slight risk of severe weather late sunday afternoon and sunday evening with the passage of a strong cold front. the primary threat will be strong thunderstorm winds but there will be a chance of tornadoes. there is a chance that winds will be fairly gusty ahead of the front on sunday but the strongest winds are expected behind the cold front sunday night. winds may gust to 50 mph and a wind advisory may be needed. strong winds may continue along the lakeshore into monday. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon through late sunday evening. $$ h2. Fri night info, Nov 15 bq. _"what's going to happen and when."_ Tune in on Sunday morning. At that time, the NWS should have a pretty good idea on the who, what, when, and where. But here's a little taste from the most recent "hazardous outlook":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/hazardous-weather-outlook.html message issued by the Cleveland NWS at 5:03 p.m. on Fri, Nov 15, 2013: q. there is a slight risk of severe weather *late sunday afternoon and sunday evening* with the passage of a strong cold front. the primary threat will be strong thunderstorm winds but there will be a *chance of tornadoes.* there is a chance that winds will be fairly gusty ahead of the front on sunday but the strongest winds are expected behind the cold front sunday night. *winds may gust to 50 mph* and a wind advisory may be needed. strong winds may continue along the lakeshore into monday. q.. And for the SKYWARN people: q. spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon through late sunday evening. q.. My big concern is that the NFL broadcasts could be interrupted by the local TV weather people. From the "forecast discussion":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html issued by the Cleveland NWS at 9:40 p.m. on Fri, Nov 15, 2013: q. *interesting weather* setting up during this time frame as the warm sector approaches the area with a strong wind field in place. "spc":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/convective-outlook.html has the entire area in a slight risk for severe storms which *will be conditional on the degree of heating* and instability that can be materialized. we could see a break in the showers during the daytime hours [Sunday] with showers and thunderstorms developing as the cold front approaches late in the day. southerly winds will range from 20-30 mph with a few gusts to 40 mph possible. *expecting skies to stay mostly cloudy* but if we do end up with some breaks in the clouds then winds could be stronger. *temperatures on sunday will be critical to the severe weather potential and effected by coverage of showers.* q.. I assume that means that the NWS won't know for certain until Sunday. If the region has more sunshine than expected, then the severe potential increases. But if Sunday is cloudy and a bit rainy ahead of the front, then I'm guessing that the severe threat decreases. I'll defer to JustaSooner. A bit more from the forecast discussion: q. character of the severe weather will depend on instability with line segments producing damaging winds the most likely scenario. however...there will also be a threat for mini-supercells and tornadoes given the tremendous shear. winds will remain gusty sunday night behind the front and a wind advisory may be needed with gusts of 40-50 mph possible. temperatures will drop back into the mid 40s by monday morning with falling temperatures continuing monday afternoon. winds will remain gusty on monday...especially near the lakeshore. q.. !http://i.imgur.com/hk7X4Sj.jpg! posted by jr on Nov 15, 2013 at 10:33:14 pm h2. Sat, Nov 16 It's a bit unusual for our area to be under a *Moderate Risk* for severe weather at any time of the year, especially on the Day 2 Outlook. The latest hazardous weather outlook: q. a squall line is expected to develop and move across the local area late sunday and sunday evening. very strong winds are expected just off the surface. heavy rain from the squall line could bring these strong winds down to the surface causing widespread damage. *this is very dangerous situation.* in addition...strong and gusty winds are expected behind the cold front responsible for the squall line. wind advisories may be needed sunday night into monday. q.. br. From the most recent area forecast discussion: q. it's going to be a busy period with a lot of weather. we are basically expecting a 6 hour or so period of showers late tonight and sunday morning probably followed by a period of dry weather and then another round of showers and storms late sunday and sunday evening. *this second round of precip is potentially very dangerous* the cold front associated with the low will sweep east across the area sunday night. a pre frontal squall line moving at considerable speed is expected. *widespread wind damage appears to be a possibility* and the severe weather outlook has been upgraded to moderate which seem reasonable. q.. br. From the Storm Prediction Center q. potential exists for a widespread damaging wind event and a few tornadoes sunday afternoon and night...especially in and near the moderate risk area across parts of the oh valley and great lakes. however...degree of the tornado threat /should these storms develop/ will depend on magnitude of destabilization within the warm sector boundary layer. otherwise...storms should initiate along strengthening cold front from the great lakes swwd into the mid ms and tn valleys and subsequently develop ewd. given strength of vertical shear...these storms will likely evolve into an organized linear mcs with lewp and bow echo structures capable of producing widespread damaging wind. isolated tornadoes associated with embedded meso-vortices also will be possible with the squall line. q.. br. If a line of storms does form, it will move into the area quickly with not a lot of advance warning, and any storm could be brief but intense. Regardless, it will be windy on Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday morning. Lake Erie forecast: q. *sunday night...* southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and increasing to gales to 40 knots overnight. rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. strong wind gusts possible in thunderstorms. *waves 3 to 5 feet building to 10 to 14 feet.* q.. posted by jr on Nov 16, 2013 at 10:18:26 am hr. From the latest SPC statement, it appears that the highest tornado risk will be west of the Toledo area, but our area could still receive strong thunderstorm winds. ... indicate development of supercells along/ahead of the cold front across parts of il/indiana and srn lower mi along/ahead of the strongest ewd surge of the cold front. these will have a window of opportunity from mid-late afternoon into the early evening to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts...severe hail and possibly several tornadoes /some strong/. with time...convection is expected to develop into bowing linear structures and spread rapidly ewd/newd across the lower great lakes/upper oh valley with the primary severe threat transitioning to potentially widespread damaging wind gusts. the fast-moving lines will move progressively into lesser instability...however vertical transfer of strong horizontal momentum to the surface may maintain a threat for wind damage through much of the overnight hours. posted by jr on Nov 16, 2013 at 01:38:27 pm h2. Sat, Nov 16 HWO hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 417 pm est sat nov 16 2013 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-172130- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 417 pm est sat nov 16 2013 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. the storm prediction center has indicated that there is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms on sunday afternoon and evening. a squall line is expected to develop and move across the local area late sunday and sunday evening. very strong winds are expected just off the surface. heavy rain from the squall line could bring these strong winds down to the surface causing widespread damage. this is a very dangerous situation. isolated tornadoes will also be possible. in addition...strong and gusty winds are expected behind the cold front overnight. wind advisories may be needed sunday night...possibly continuing along the eastern lakeshore into monday. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed from late sunday afternoon through late sunday evening. h2. Sat, Nov 16 AFD fxus61 kcle 162349 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 649 pm est sat nov 16 2013 synopsis... low pressure will rapidly deepen as it tracks from the plains to the the upper great lakes on sunday. a very strong cold front extending south from the low will sweep across the local area late sunday and sunday evening. high pressure will slowly build over the region from the southwest the first half of the work week. && near term /until 6 am sunday morning/... showers are on schedule moving east and of course worried about some showers developing in the warm advection. made some minor changes to the pops for this evening over eastern ohio. temperatures may not drop that much. previous discussion... the upper level trough will deepen over the plains tonight with one area of low pressure tracking northeast towards lake superior and the other towards iowa. meanwhile a 145 knot upper level jet and accompanying 50 knot llj near 850mb will slide northeast up the ohio valley with increasing low level moisture advection. showers will overspread the area from west to east...mainly after midnight...with good low level moisture convergence and large scale ascent provided by the left exit region of the upper level jet. raised pops to near 100 percent for areas west of cleveland...tapering down to 70 percent towards erie pa. have also included a chance of thunderstorms into the forecast as some degree of elevated instability develops. a few of the thunderstorms in northwest ohio could be fairly robust with strong shear in the column but expecting low levels to be too stable to bring the strong winds down to the ground. there will be some breaks in the clouds late this afternoon and evening before the moisture ramps up with overcast skies later tonight. expect to reach the low temperature for tonight this evening with both temperatures and dewpoints rising towards dawn. low will only drop to the low 50s this evening. && short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/... there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather on sunday. showers with a chance of thunderstorms will linger into sunday morning across the eastern counties...shifting southeast with time as the mid-level dry slot overspreads northern ohio and lake erie. most areas will see a break in the precipitation during the late morning/afternoon before chances of showers and thunderstorms increase later in the day ahead of the cold front. the storm prediction center has placed most of the forecast area in a moderate risk for severe weather with the potential for significant severe weather outbreak. this occurs as low pressure moving out of the plains undergoes rapid deepening while tracking from near chicago to north of lake huron...pulling a cold front east across the area during the late afternoon/evening hours. a strong wind field will be in place aloft on sunday but stable conditions in the low levels will limit higher gusts from mixing down for most of the day...with gusts near 40 mph starting to develop in primarily nw ohio after 2 pm. skies are expected to be mostly cloudy on sunday but some breaks are possible ahead of the front. any peaks of sun could result in pockets of higher temperatures...a jump in instability...and better mixing. dewpoints will surge up immediately ahead of the cold front with a narrow corridor approaching 60 degrees. there have been some interesting trends observed in the models over the last 48 hours. the upper level trough does not deepen as much to our west and the stronger dynamics associated with the trough becoming negatively tilted may actually be focused slightly further north from southern michigan into ontario. agree with spc that the better placement for supercells will be from nrn indiana into se michigan ahead of the cold front with the convection transitioning to more of a linear mode as it pushes east across ohio during the evening. with that in mind...still expecting the primary severe weather threat to be strong damaging winds with the potential for gusts of 70-80 mph with a 110 knot jet streak at 500mb. it is unclear if we will see much convection develop out ahead of the front and that will be something to watch on sunday. any discrete cells could be supercellular in nature and pose a threat of tornadoes. isolated tornadoes are also possible with breaks in the line along the cold front. the threat of the severe weather will increase between 5-8 pm in nw ohio...7-10 pm towards cleveland and 9-midnight in erie. the period of showers will not last long with the frontal passage as the airmass dries out quickly with strong subsidence. westerly winds will gust to 40-50 mph overnight and a wind advisory may be needed...possibly continuing along the east lakeshore on monday. conditions will become more favorable for lake effect snow showers as temperatures drop into the 30s on monday night. minor accumulations will be possible in the snow belt but will end fairly quickly on tuesday as high pressure expands over the ohio valley. && long term /wednesday through saturday/... high pressure will cross the lower great lakes tuesday into wednesday with the return south flow developing by wednesday although temperatures will likely stay shy of normal. some question by thursday as too how far the next cold front will advance. the ecmwf pushes the front well south of the area whereas the other models hang the front in the vicinity of the forecast area. the ecmwf is often too aggressive with the southern extent of these types of fronts but with a large high pressure area over eastern canada we will eventually see a wind shift and cooler air will filter in. so...probably less chance of rain that the ecmwf would lead to believe and not as cool...but a little cooler than the gfs. probably a better chance of rain by the end of the week with the next surface wave but the models are poor and locating these frontal waves as well. not much confidence in any aspect of the forecast late in the week with a lot of compromise to temps and pops. && aviation /00z sunday through thursday/... rain showers creeping into area from the west with warm front. should reach the tol area toward midnight local and spread east across the area overnight. doubts in my mind as to how widespread ifr cigs will be overnight. expect a quarter inch of rain or so from the rain showers and then a lull by mid morning across the area. south to southwest winds will increase sunday with winds gusts into the mid 30s possible by late afternoon. outlook...non vfr conditions likely much of sunday. strong tsra possible sunday evening with high winds. non-vfr conditions will continue monday with a few shra. a few shsn monday night...mainly across ne oh/nw pa. conditions improving to vfr from west to east tuesday. && marine... will go ahead and post the gale warning. it will not officially start until sunday evening but it will get the information out and preclude the issuance of small craft advisories ahead of the warning. the south wind will be strongest sunday in the nearshore downslope areas from about fairport harbor east to buffalo and then across the lake toward long point. the warm air and stable situation will keep the wind somewhat in check elsewhere ion lake erie on sunday but as the cold front approaches the mixing of the low level jet will increase late in the day and especially sunday evening. as the front passes and cold advection begins sunday night...the gales will develop...lasting into monday before diminishing monday evening. there is a small chance for a brief period of storm force winds early monday morning but if it would happen it would be brief and localized and it is more likely the wind will peak in the 40 knot range. low water advisories may be needed on the western basin monday morning. high pressure will build across the lower great lakes by mid week. the next cold front is due thursday. the strength of the front is in question so will not commit to any moderate or strong winds yet although the ecmwf has been advertising a good gradient. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...gale warning from 6 pm sunday to 4 pm est monday for lez061- 142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec/kieltyka short term...kec long term...kosarik aviation...djb marine...kosarik h2. Sat, Nov 16 SPC Day 2 CO !http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2817/10895209913_2eb7549eee.jpg! day 2 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1132 am cst sat nov 16 2013 valid 171200z - 181200z ...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms over parts of ern il...extreme sern wi...srn lower mi...oh...indiana...and nrn ky... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the mid-south/tn valley into the great lakes region... ...potential exists for a widespread damaging wind event and several tornadoes /some possibly strong/ sunday afternoon and night across parts of the oh valley and great lakes... ...synopsis... longwave trough currently over the wrn us is forecast to intensify through sunday as a very strong mid-level jet streak digs sewd across the great basin and central rockies before progressing ewd across the central plains/mid ms valley during the afternoon. the upper trough is forecast to become negatively-tilted as it lifts newd across the great lakes region during the second half of the period. at the surface...an intense deepening low is forecast to move from ia toward ern lake superior during the day and progress into ern ontario and wrn quebec at night. a strong cold front will arc swd from the low with the nrn part of the front accelerating across the great lakes region. the srn part of the front is expected to lag swwd...reaching an ern lower mi/srn indiana/central ar/nrn tx line by 18/00z...and ern ny/nrn va/wrn nc/nrn ga and lower ms valley by the end of the period. ...oh valley into the srn great lakes... overnight storms may be continuing from parts of the oh valley swwd across the mid-south/tn valley in association with a weak shortwave trough and low level warm advection. this activity may contain a more limited severe threat for hail and strong/severe wind gusts as it shifts ewd/newd with time. although dynamic forcing for large scale ascent is expected to remain primarily north of this area...sufficient deep layer shear will support organized storm structures including potential for isolated supercells. the primary severe threat is expected to develop during the late morning into early/mid afternoon from ern ia into parts of nrn/central il...then spread ewd through the overnight hours across the great lakes and oh valley. strong sswly low level winds will continue to advect moisture nwd toward the deepening surface low with 60-65f dew points reaching as far north as nrn parts of il and indiana. a plume of steeper mid level lapse rates is forecast to extend ewd from the central plains toward the srn great lakes and will contribute to increased instability with cape of 1000-1500 j/kg forecast across parts of il and indiana. strong/severe storms may develop as early as mid/late morning over parts of ern ia near the surface low and advancing cold front...then increase in coverage into nrn/central il during the afternoon as strong dynamic forcing within the left exit region of the mid/upper level jet streak overspreads the low level moisture/instability axis. forecast soundings indicate development of clockwise turning low-level hodograph structures in association with strong veering wind profiles. several 12z convection-allowing models /especially the 4 km wrf-nssl and 1.3 km nam fire nest/ indicate development of supercells along/ahead of the cold front across parts of il/indiana and srn lower mi along/ahead of the strongest ewd surge of the cold front. these will have a window of opportunity from mid-late afternoon into the early evening to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts...severe hail and possibly several tornadoes /some strong/. with time...convection is expected to develop into bowing linear structures and spread rapidly ewd/newd across the lower great lakes/upper oh valley with the primary severe threat transitioning to potentially widespread damaging wind gusts. the fast-moving lines will move progressively into lesser instability...however vertical transfer of strong horizontal momentum to the surface may maintain a threat for wind damage through much of the overnight hours. ..weiss.. 11/16/2013 click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z page created: Nov 16, 2013 - 7:30 p.m. EST h2. Nov 16 JustaSooner's analysis !http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7336/10894960126_1940d91a82.jpg! The two lines of storms is the concerning part. Obviously exact cell placement has a margin of error, so this can't be used as an actual guide of who gets hit and who doesn't. However, seeing a line of broken supercells on the back edge with the front but also isolated supercells ahead of that main line makes it pretty concerning. Anything that can start isolated ahead of the main line is what I would be most concerned about. You can't read into what they are saying as the highest tornado risk will be west of Toledo. The highest tornado risk is going to be with any storm that can remain isolated and doesn't get undercut by outflow. Widespread damaging winds will kick in once we see things line out. Could still see a few embedded rotations/quick spin ups, but later into the evening things go the lower the tornado threat - as it looks now. Don't try to read into it right now on too micro of a level. posted by JustaSooner on Nov 16, 2013 at 01:51:31 pm hr. Highest tornado threat timeline tomorrow... 12PM - SW MI, Much of Indiana, S Illinois 3PM - SC MI, NW OH, Indiana, S IL, W KY, W TN 6PM - W OH (better dynamics may be near the TOL area where Ohio is concerned), S IN, Ohio River Valley in KY Tornado threat should be down quit a bit after 7-8pm tomorrow. Precip timing for NW OH... 4AM - Scattered showers NW OH 7AM - Light to moderate rain N OH 10AM - Isolated sprinkles otherwise dry 1PM - Mostly dry, maybe and isolated shower developing. 4PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain 7PM - Severe Storms, heavy rain 10PM - Storms, moderate rain ending 1AM - Dry posted by JustaSooner on Nov 16, 2013 at 06:51:08 pm h2. Sat, Nov 16 Wind Advisory Issued by the N. IN NWS office that includes Fulton and Henry counties. The Cleveland and Pontiac, MI offices have not issued any such statements. Statement as of 9:03 PM CST on November 16, 2013 ... Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon EST /11 am CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Sunday... Hazardous weather... * southerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Sunday afternoon will turn westerly by Sunday evening. * Higher gusts and significant wind damage will be possible with any thunderstorms. Impacts... * scattered power outages possible. * Winds strong enough to make driving difficult in open areas. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 mph... or gusts over 45 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. h2. Nov 17 - A THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR SUNDAY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS STRONG UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SENDS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE EAST TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. SIG MOIST LATENT HEAT RELEASE WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO...IN TANDEM WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AS DEEP PV ANOMALY ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE TILT WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM IOWA AT 12Z TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY 00Z. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER LAKES REGION BECOMING ENTRENCHED IN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME SUNDAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN ROLL EAST THROUGH WESTERN AREAS EARLY/MID AFTN AND OUR OHIO COUNTIES LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. EXPECT SOME SFC HEATING AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY IN WARM SECTOR. CHANCES FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVE CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AND BETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN. LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF LOW TOPPED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN GIVEN POTENTIAL LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FEATURE WITH NO CAP AS DEEP UVM PLUME OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WHICH REMAINS A QUESTION MARK AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTN...DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THEN MERGING INTO A LEWP/QLCS/SQUALL LINE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN AND EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. HOW SEVERE/WIDESPREAD THIS CONVECTION ENDS UP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW EFFICIENT THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF INSTABILITY IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL BE ATTAINABLE WITH SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING UP TO 1500 J/KG. FLOW/SHEAR/LOW LVL HELICITY IS OFF THE CHARTS WITH A 120-130 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX NOSING INTO THE AREA. THE EXPECTATION FOR WEAK/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND SUCH A STRONG WIND FIELD (LINE NORMAL 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES APPROACHING 50 KNOTS!) HINT AT A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WX EVENT...WITH RIJ/BOWING SEGMENTS AND STEEPENING LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AUGMENTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MESOVORT TORNADOES. LOW LCL'S IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ALSO SUGGEST AN ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR PUSHING 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THIS ADDED A TOR MENTION TO THE GRIDS. STAY TUNED AS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX/TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SUN AFTN/EVE. ! posted by JustaSooner on Nov 17, 2013 at 12:44:15 am # + h2. Nov 17 - B SPC issued its first Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, November 17, 2013, and the SPC upgraded parts of the larger **Moderate Risk** area to be **High Risk.** The High Risk is west of Ohio. The High Risk area includes most of Indiana and eastern Illinois. The Toledo area, however, is still under the Moderate Risk. High Risk statements are rarely issued by the SPC. [[Severe Weather Info]] day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1152 pm cst sat nov 16 2013 valid 171200z - 181200z ...there is a high risk of svr tstms across parts of ern il...ind and far sw lower mi... ...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across parts of il...lower mi...oh...ind...ky and wrn tn...... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the mid to upper ms valley...oh valley...srn great lakes and tn valley... ...tornado outbreak with multiple significant tornadoes and widespread damaging winds expected across the oh valley and srn great lakes region today... an impressive negatively-tilted upper-level trough and powerful 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will move across the ncntrl u.s. today. at the sfc...a low will track newd into the upper midwest as a cold front advances ewd into the mid to upper ms valley. ahead of the front...strong moisture advection will occur due to a well-developed and broad 60 to 75 kt low-level jet. an extensive area of thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat should be ongoing along the ern edge of the low-level jet from ne ar newd into srn ind at daybreak with this activity moving ewd away from the instability axis this morning. further to the west...the low-level jet will transport low to mid 60s f sfc dewpoints into the mid ms valley and oh valley resulting in a corridor of moderate instability from ne ar nnewd into cntrl il by mid morning. due to strong large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough...sfc-based cell initiation should occur ahead of the front by mid morning across nrn and cntrl il with storm coverage expanding ewd into ind and lower mi by early afternoon. although cells may remain discrete through much of the afternoon...the development of a squall-line appears likely during the late afternoon across the oh valley with the line developing swd into the tn valley during the early evening. forecast soundings at urbana il and indianapolis ind in the 18z to 21z timeframe show sbcape near 1500 j/kg...0-6 km shear around 70 kt...low-lcl heights and long looped hodographs suggesting supercells and tornadoes will be likely as discrete cells intensify. 0-3 km storm relative helicities of 400 to 450 m2/s2 will be favorable for strong tornadoes with several long-track damaging tornadoes expected to occur from ern il enewd across much of wrn and cntrl ind from late morning into early afternoon. as cell coverage increases ahead of the fast moving front...a squall-line should organize late this afternoon. widespread wind damage will be associated with the line along with tornadoes with rotating cells embedded in the line. the severe threat should ramp up south of the oh river during the late afternoon as cells initiate swd along the front. the potential for wind damage and tornadoes should develop as a far south as the tn valley during the evening as an extensive line of severe storms moves ewd into the upper oh valley and cntrl appalachian mtns. several factors appear to be coming together for a tornado outbreak across the oh valley. the first factor is that the system is negatively-titled and very well-organized. the second is that the low and mid-level jets will become favorably coupled in the oh valley today coinciding with an outbreak of storms across the warm sector. the third is that supercells are expected to remain discrete into the mid-afternoon. these factors combined with extremely favorable low-level shear profiles justifies the issuance of a high risk across ern il...ind and sw lower mi. ..broyles/bunting.. 11/17/2013 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z h2. Nov 17 - c (my early morning comment at TT) JustaSooner has updated the post that started this thread with the latest info from the Storm Prediction Center. Here are some snippets, which are based upon the SPC's outlook that was issued at 12:52 a.m. EST on Sun, Nov 17, 2013. br. SPC text and image info: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Excerpts: bq. tornado outbreak with multiple significant tornadoes and widespread damaging winds expected across the oh valley and srn great lakes region today bq. several factors appear to be coming together for a tornado outbreak across the oh valley. the first factor is that the system is negatively-titled and very well-organized. the second is that the low and mid-level jets will become favorably coupled in the oh valley today coinciding with an outbreak of storms across the warm sector. *the third is that supercells are expected to remain discrete into the mid-afternoon.* these factors combined with extremely favorable low-level shear profiles justifies the issuance of a high risk across ern il...ind and sw lower mi. br. Risk for severe weather, which includes the rarely-issued *High Risk* area. !http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7317/10898838624_437d172621_o.png! br. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. !http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3743/10898838584_edb5e82944_o.png! br. Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. !http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7378/10898688995_7e9a0fddb0_o.png! br. Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. !http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3770/10898838674_5974b335f0_o.png! br. Past "notes":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/154531/Severe_Weather_Info about severe weather: *Moderate Risk* bq. Typically, the SPC does not misfire on its prediction for severe weather when a moderate risk is issued. It's usually a rough time in or near the moderate risk areas. bq. It's a bit uncommon to have a moderate risk issued for northwest Ohio and/or southeast Michigan. Such a forecast may not happen every year for our region. br. This is the second time in 2013 that the Toledo area has landed under a Moderate Risk for severe weather. The previous time "occurred":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/154446/10Jun2013/Severe_Weather_-_6122013 on June 12, 2013. On that day, the severe weather "occurred":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/154446#154874 in northern Indiana and north central and northeast Ohio. It missed the immediate Toledo area. br. *High Risk* bq. What's really rare anywhere in the U.S. is for the SPC to issue a High Risk forecast for severe weather as indicated by magenta-colored legend in the above image. br. Back on June 12, 2013, the SPC issued a High Risk for northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and extreme northwest Ohio. June 12, 2013 "comment":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/154446#154744 by JustaSooner : q. As someone may ask...all watches in the high risk today will be PDS watches. So we'll see our first PDS Severe in probably 2 years. q.. June 13, 2013 "comment":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/154446#154978 by JustaSooner : q. PDS = Particularly Dangerous Situation. It is the highest level of a watch box and they are very rare. They will only be issued when conditions are in place for a widespread, high end event. Sometimes they do bust but that is because high end situations are extremely volatile and if one ingredient is off it can keep things from happening. q.. So some tornado watches are considered worse than others. Not all get the PDS status. Could a PDS-type watch be issued on Sunday? br. Some basic info: *Watches* bq. Remember, the SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Tornado watches. These watch-boxes are issued for large regions that include many counties. And they are usually issued for a six-hour period, but that can vary. The watch means the likelihood exists that severe thunderstorms or tornadoes could occur in the watch box. *Warnings* bq. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings are issued by the regional National Weather Service. The warnings can be issued for an entire county or for only a portion of a county. And the warnings usually exist for 60 minutes. Obviously, the warnings mean severe weather is imminent for the warned area. br. *National Weather Service Offices* bq. JustaSooner has mentioned in the past about how Toledo is in an unfortunate black hole, regarding radar and National Weather Service coverage. bq. *Three different National Weather Service offices* issue forecasts, warnings, and advisories for the immediate Toledo area. bq. The Detroit/Pontiac NWS covers Monroe and Lenawee counties. bq. The northern Inidana NWS covers Fulton and Henry counties. bq. The Cleveland NWS covers Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa counties. bq. Toledo is at the very edge of coverage for all three offices. br. *Sirens* If Sunday's weather gets to be tornado-like in the Toledo area, do not rely on the sirens to inform you. bq. As we learned in June 2010, the tornado sirens are NOT designed to be heard by people inside a home or a building with the TV, stereo, vacuum cleaner, or air conditioner running. bq. The sirens are meant to warn people who are outside. bq. Some sirens will malfunction. bq. The sheriff's office is charged with sounding the sirens. The sheriff is suppose to sound the siren if the county is under a tornado warning. bq. But we also learned in June 2010, that the sheriff can sound the siren at his or her own discretion, depending upon the severity of the advancing weather. The sheriff does not have to wait for NWS to issue a tornado warning for the county. bq. The NWS could issue a tornado warning for only a portion of a county. But when the sirens sound, I think they sound throughout the entire county. br. I understand that the local TV media will probably interrupt normal Sunday afternoon/evening broadcasts (NFL) because of the weather, but it might be a good idea, at least for those people who do not have Internet access. The storms will probably move through very fast, so you won't have the normal amount of lag time between the moment your dog first detects thunder and when the storm actually hits. And even if we do not get any severe weather, we'll still have some strong November winds on Sunday and especially Sunday night. With the leaves down, that means we'll hear the low, howling, growling, rumbling wind blow through the big oak trees in our neighborhood. That's always an eerie sound, especially at night. Hopefully, we won't need this: "First Energy Power Outage Map":http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/oh.html And if anyone plans to do any kayaking on Lake Erie on Sunday night or Monday in the central and eastern basins, here's the near shore marine forecast: bq. gale warning in effect from sunday evening through monday afternoon bq. *sunday night...* south gales to 35 knots becoming west gales to 40 knots. showers and thunderstorms in the evening. waves 3 to 5 feet building to 11 to 15 feet. bq. *monday...* west gales to 40 knots decreasing to 35 knots. mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. *waves 12 to 16 feet.* #weather - #toledo - #blog_jr