Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013 - Part 2 This post [[Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013]] is getting to big, so continuing here. h2. Nov 17 - 1411 Short while ago !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5488/10910438853_5a0dc53a33.jpg! !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5526/10910438823_985695f8ec.jpg! h2. 1417 !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd2018.gif! md 2018 concerning tornado watch 561...562...564... for far ern il...ind...lower mi mesoscale discussion 2018 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0106 pm cst sun nov 17 2013 areas affected...far ern il...ind...lower mi concerning...tornado watch 561...562...564... valid 171906z - 172030z the severe weather threat for tornado watch 561...562...564...continues. summary...widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes...some of which should be significant...will evolve from il into ind and lower mi through mid-afternoon. discussion...the nrn two-thirds of an extensive convective band has consolidated into a qlcs from srn lk mi into e-cntrl il. with an impressively large surface pressure rise/fall couplet noted across the mid-ms valley to midwest...tendency for fast-moving linear organization should continue across nrn ind and lower mi. embedded mesovortices will remain capable of damaging tornadoes while extensive swaths of strong to severe wind gusts should remain attendant to the qlcs as an 886 mb surface cyclone over sern wi continues to deepen. farther s...tendency for more discrete supercell structures appear probable for convection emanating newd out of srn il. although downstream surface temperatures are cooler...very strong low-level shear noted in kvwx vwp data will support a considerable risk of significant tornadoes as convection remains coincident within a plume of lower to middle 60s surface dew points. ..grams.. 11/17/2013 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...dtx...apx...lmk...iwx...grr...ind...pah...lot... ilx... lat...lon 44528595 44528470 44118430 43138440 39638542 38508650 38168746 38138787 38238832 38638834 40298780 42508673 44528595 h2. 1442 Toledo Express weather at 2pm. Weather : Overcast Temperature : 65 F Humidity : 76% Wind Speed : S 17 mph - Gust 30 mph Barometer : 29.50 in Dewpoint: 57 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles h2. 1452 !http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3731/10910903885_ef18458d85.jpg! I'm seeing only a small amount of the white inside cells that indicate severe. !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5545/10911209843_7f166f48ed.jpg! !http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2853/10911043934_0b95284305.jpg! h2. 1501 A couple of those cells along or near the IL-IN border are isolated at least along the western and southern edges. !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5473/10911096436_35c8f8793f.jpg! !http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3711/10911173414_7e157270c7.jpg! h2. 1503 This was prob posted in the other post: fxus61 kcle 171738 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1238 pm est sun nov 17 2013 synopsis... low pressure over the plains states will deepen rapidly as it moves northeast today reaching northern lake michigan by this evening and into quebec on monday. this will push a strong cold front across the area this evening. high pressure will move east out of the southern plains states into the ohio valley by tuesday and then off the east coast on wednesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... removed thunder across north central ohio and points east until very late afternoon/evening. while i cannot rule out thunder... would like to make the thunder and wind with the front more of the focal point of the forecast. tough to do in these days of automated text formatters...so not sure exactly what the wording will say. better chance for thunder at any time in the dry slot that is creeping across northwest ohio. sort of looks like oklahoma in the spring time...hmmm. no other significant changes to the forecast. did nudge up high temperatures a couple of degrees across nw ohio and parts of north central ohio where there will not be as many showers. record high in toledo is 71 and we will take a run at it. 72 at cle is potentially within reach. relevant early morning updated discussion... showers continue to move east and out of the area at this time. cellular convection continues to move into extreme northwest ohio and southern lower michigan. the water vapor plume is also pushing east allowing for some drier air to move east and allow for a break in the action. latest hrrr model shows massive squall line developing over illinois and rapidly intensifies as it moves east toward ohio. timing would put the line at toledo and findlay at 22z and to cleveland and mansfield by about 00z and finally to erie and youngstown by 02z or so. so the wait begins. stay tuned. previous discussion... the long anticipated severe weather threat day has arrived. two low pressure systems in the upper midwest are beginning to merge and intensify this morning. southerly flow has increased across the forecast area and this will be the beginning of the strengthening wind flow throughout the day. moderately strong low level jet will remain persistent over the forecast area today and with the warm air advection...some of the stronger winds will mix down to the surface. so...will go ahead and issue a wind advisory for the entire area but will be for mainly later this evening into tonight since the strongest winds will take place after the cold frontal passage. 60 to 70 knot speed maximum at 850 mb will pose a problem as convection develops later this morning into the afternoon hours. the stronger winds could be forced to the surface in the thunderstorms and produce widespread wind damage. latest storm prediction center outlook continues to highlight a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across the area today. there is a high risk just west of the forecast area. even though the main threats will be the strong damaging winds...latest model sounding hodographs indicate some fairly high levels of helicity...especially across areas from cleveland to akron canton west. i cant rule out the potential for any thunderstorms that develop that they could begin to rotate rather quickly and produce tornadoes. temperature dew point spreads are progged to be at or below the 5 degree threshold and this is one key ingredient for tornadoes to develop. && short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/... the severe weather threat will not be over tonight. the cold front and potential squall line is expected to move through the area this evening and this is when we have the highest threat for widespread wind damage. one factor is we will be losing the day time heating and this may help to stabilize things a bit. as the cold front shifts east...cold air advection will take place and allow winds to mix down to the surface. will hoist a wind advisory for tonight due to the post frontal winds expected. as the strong low pressure system moves rather quickly to the northeast...winds are expected to diminish fairly quickly monday into tuesday. cyclonic flow around the back side of the low and in advance of the next high pressure will cause showers to continue over the extreme northeast portion of the forecast area. otherwise...drier air will begin to return back to the region on monday. the cold air advection will likely produce some lake effect rain and snow showers over the northeast monday night and tuesday. the high will build in across the ohio valley and shift the flow away from the lake ending the lake effect threat. otherwise...fair weather is expected across the rest of the forecast area monday into tuesday and over all areas tuesday night through wednesday night. the cold front will result in cold air advection and plunge temperatures back to near normal in the 40s for highs and overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s. && long term /thursday through saturday/... not many changes to the long term today. the new guidance continues to show the possibility of warm air advection showers on thursday...especially in the west. unsettled weather will then continue into next weekend as a series of frontal systems affects the region. it appears best chances for precip will be friday night into saturday as a wave moves across the ohio valley. most of the precip should be liquid although mixed rain and snow could occur early saturday. temps during the period will be seasonable and have stayed fairly close to guidance. && aviation /18z sunday through thursday/... southerly winds will increase through the afternoon with gusts to 35 knots common across the west and along the lakeshore. expect to see mvfr cloud cover to spread back into the area from the southwest. this may be a bit slower to occur across the east but with some scattered showers we expect there will still be at least some patchy mvfr conditions. the main concern will be the severe thunderstorm potential along a strong cold front that will arrive in the toledo area around 22z...kcle and kmfd around 00z and kyng and keri around 02z. severe gusts will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. winds in the wake of the front will shift to the southwest and increase. most locations will see gusts 35 to 40 knots through the overnight. outlook...non-vfr conditions will be scattered across the region in showers. a few shsn monday night...mainly across ne oh/nw pa. conditions improving to vfr from west to east tuesday. && marine... no changes to the headlines on the lake today. the gale still looks good for late today and tonight. still expecting a squall line to move across the lake this evening and wind gusts could approach 50 knots. winds will become westerly behind the cold front responsible for the squall line. speeds should gradually diminish on monday and expect a prolonged period of small craft advisories once the gale comes down. local guidance also shows water levels making a run for the critical mark late tonight. will see how things develop but later shifts may need to go with a low water advisory. the flow will become nw on monday as high pressure begins to build in from the west. a surface ridge will eventually move east of the lake tuesday night allowing the flow to become southerly. south to southwest flow will then continue till a cold front crosses the lake at the very end of the period. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est monday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. pa...wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est monday for paz001>003. marine...gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 4 pm est monday for lez061-142>149-162>169. low water advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est monday for lez142>144-162>164. && $$ synopsis...kosarik/lombardy near term...kosarik/lombardy short term...lombardy long term...kubina aviation...mullen marine...kubina