Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013 - Part 2 This post [[Severe weather threat for Sun, Nov 17, 2013]] is getting to big, so continuing here. h2. Nov 17 - 1411 Short while ago !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5488/10910438853_5a0dc53a33.jpg! !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5526/10910438823_985695f8ec.jpg! h2. 1417 !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd2018.gif! md 2018 concerning tornado watch 561...562...564... for far ern il...ind...lower mi mesoscale discussion 2018 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0106 pm cst sun nov 17 2013 areas affected...far ern il...ind...lower mi concerning...tornado watch 561...562...564... valid 171906z - 172030z the severe weather threat for tornado watch 561...562...564...continues. summary...widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes...some of which should be significant...will evolve from il into ind and lower mi through mid-afternoon. discussion...the nrn two-thirds of an extensive convective band has consolidated into a qlcs from srn lk mi into e-cntrl il. with an impressively large surface pressure rise/fall couplet noted across the mid-ms valley to midwest...tendency for fast-moving linear organization should continue across nrn ind and lower mi. embedded mesovortices will remain capable of damaging tornadoes while extensive swaths of strong to severe wind gusts should remain attendant to the qlcs as an 886 mb surface cyclone over sern wi continues to deepen. farther s...tendency for more discrete supercell structures appear probable for convection emanating newd out of srn il. although downstream surface temperatures are cooler...very strong low-level shear noted in kvwx vwp data will support a considerable risk of significant tornadoes as convection remains coincident within a plume of lower to middle 60s surface dew points. ..grams.. 11/17/2013 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...dtx...apx...lmk...iwx...grr...ind...pah...lot... ilx... lat...lon 44528595 44528470 44118430 43138440 39638542 38508650 38168746 38138787 38238832 38638834 40298780 42508673 44528595 h2. 1442 Toledo Express weather at 2pm. Weather : Overcast Temperature : 65 F Humidity : 76% Wind Speed : S 17 mph - Gust 30 mph Barometer : 29.50 in Dewpoint: 57 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles h2. 1452 !http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3731/10910903885_ef18458d85.jpg! I'm seeing only a small amount of the white inside cells that indicate severe. !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5545/10911209843_7f166f48ed.jpg! !http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2853/10911043934_0b95284305.jpg! h2. 1501 A couple of those cells along or near the IL-IN border are isolated at least along the western and southern edges. !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5473/10911096436_35c8f8793f.jpg! !http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3711/10911173414_7e157270c7.jpg! h2. 1503 This was prob posted in the other post: fxus61 kcle 171738 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1238 pm est sun nov 17 2013 synopsis... low pressure over the plains states will deepen rapidly as it moves northeast today reaching northern lake michigan by this evening and into quebec on monday. this will push a strong cold front across the area this evening. high pressure will move east out of the southern plains states into the ohio valley by tuesday and then off the east coast on wednesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... removed thunder across north central ohio and points east until very late afternoon/evening. while i cannot rule out thunder... would like to make the thunder and wind with the front more of the focal point of the forecast. tough to do in these days of automated text formatters...so not sure exactly what the wording will say. better chance for thunder at any time in the dry slot that is creeping across northwest ohio. sort of looks like oklahoma in the spring time...hmmm. no other significant changes to the forecast. did nudge up high temperatures a couple of degrees across nw ohio and parts of north central ohio where there will not be as many showers. record high in toledo is 71 and we will take a run at it. 72 at cle is potentially within reach. relevant early morning updated discussion... showers continue to move east and out of the area at this time. cellular convection continues to move into extreme northwest ohio and southern lower michigan. the water vapor plume is also pushing east allowing for some drier air to move east and allow for a break in the action. latest hrrr model shows massive squall line developing over illinois and rapidly intensifies as it moves east toward ohio. timing would put the line at toledo and findlay at 22z and to cleveland and mansfield by about 00z and finally to erie and youngstown by 02z or so. so the wait begins. stay tuned. previous discussion... the long anticipated severe weather threat day has arrived. two low pressure systems in the upper midwest are beginning to merge and intensify this morning. southerly flow has increased across the forecast area and this will be the beginning of the strengthening wind flow throughout the day. moderately strong low level jet will remain persistent over the forecast area today and with the warm air advection...some of the stronger winds will mix down to the surface. so...will go ahead and issue a wind advisory for the entire area but will be for mainly later this evening into tonight since the strongest winds will take place after the cold frontal passage. 60 to 70 knot speed maximum at 850 mb will pose a problem as convection develops later this morning into the afternoon hours. the stronger winds could be forced to the surface in the thunderstorms and produce widespread wind damage. latest storm prediction center outlook continues to highlight a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across the area today. there is a high risk just west of the forecast area. even though the main threats will be the strong damaging winds...latest model sounding hodographs indicate some fairly high levels of helicity...especially across areas from cleveland to akron canton west. i cant rule out the potential for any thunderstorms that develop that they could begin to rotate rather quickly and produce tornadoes. temperature dew point spreads are progged to be at or below the 5 degree threshold and this is one key ingredient for tornadoes to develop. && short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/... the severe weather threat will not be over tonight. the cold front and potential squall line is expected to move through the area this evening and this is when we have the highest threat for widespread wind damage. one factor is we will be losing the day time heating and this may help to stabilize things a bit. as the cold front shifts east...cold air advection will take place and allow winds to mix down to the surface. will hoist a wind advisory for tonight due to the post frontal winds expected. as the strong low pressure system moves rather quickly to the northeast...winds are expected to diminish fairly quickly monday into tuesday. cyclonic flow around the back side of the low and in advance of the next high pressure will cause showers to continue over the extreme northeast portion of the forecast area. otherwise...drier air will begin to return back to the region on monday. the cold air advection will likely produce some lake effect rain and snow showers over the northeast monday night and tuesday. the high will build in across the ohio valley and shift the flow away from the lake ending the lake effect threat. otherwise...fair weather is expected across the rest of the forecast area monday into tuesday and over all areas tuesday night through wednesday night. the cold front will result in cold air advection and plunge temperatures back to near normal in the 40s for highs and overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s. && long term /thursday through saturday/... not many changes to the long term today. the new guidance continues to show the possibility of warm air advection showers on thursday...especially in the west. unsettled weather will then continue into next weekend as a series of frontal systems affects the region. it appears best chances for precip will be friday night into saturday as a wave moves across the ohio valley. most of the precip should be liquid although mixed rain and snow could occur early saturday. temps during the period will be seasonable and have stayed fairly close to guidance. && aviation /18z sunday through thursday/... southerly winds will increase through the afternoon with gusts to 35 knots common across the west and along the lakeshore. expect to see mvfr cloud cover to spread back into the area from the southwest. this may be a bit slower to occur across the east but with some scattered showers we expect there will still be at least some patchy mvfr conditions. the main concern will be the severe thunderstorm potential along a strong cold front that will arrive in the toledo area around 22z...kcle and kmfd around 00z and kyng and keri around 02z. severe gusts will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. winds in the wake of the front will shift to the southwest and increase. most locations will see gusts 35 to 40 knots through the overnight. outlook...non-vfr conditions will be scattered across the region in showers. a few shsn monday night...mainly across ne oh/nw pa. conditions improving to vfr from west to east tuesday. && marine... no changes to the headlines on the lake today. the gale still looks good for late today and tonight. still expecting a squall line to move across the lake this evening and wind gusts could approach 50 knots. winds will become westerly behind the cold front responsible for the squall line. speeds should gradually diminish on monday and expect a prolonged period of small craft advisories once the gale comes down. local guidance also shows water levels making a run for the critical mark late tonight. will see how things develop but later shifts may need to go with a low water advisory. the flow will become nw on monday as high pressure begins to build in from the west. a surface ridge will eventually move east of the lake tuesday night allowing the flow to become southerly. south to southwest flow will then continue till a cold front crosses the lake at the very end of the period. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est monday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. pa...wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est monday for paz001>003. marine...gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 4 pm est monday for lez061-142>149-162>169. low water advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est monday for lez142>144-162>164. && $$ synopsis...kosarik/lombardy near term...kosarik/lombardy short term...lombardy long term...kubina aviation...mullen marine...kubina h2. 1509 Toledo Express Airport Nov 17, 2013 2:52 pm Weather : Mostly Cloudy Temperature : 66 F Humidity : 73% Wind Speed : S 20 mph - Gust 30 mph Barometer : 29.45 in Dewpoint: 57 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles h2. 1513 !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5527/10911601983_3cc85f0739.jpg! h2. 1521 Here is the tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings map as of 3:09 p.m. EST. Over the past hour, the number of tornado warnings in the northern half of Indiana has increased. Storms are moving northeast. Whether the storms hold together long enough to make it to northwest Ohio, well ... !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5527/10911601983_3cc85f0739.jpg! br. Here is the warnings map from earlier today at 1:28 p.m. EST. The storms are moving quickly. !http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7349/10909504466_9fa57f03ee.jpg! h2. 1525 !http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3795/10911558166_61b60aefa2.jpg! h2. 1534 !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd2020.gif! md 2020 concerning severe potential...tornado watch likely for oh mesoscale discussion 2020 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0205 pm cst sun nov 17 2013 areas affected...oh concerning...severe potential...tornado watch likely valid 172005z - 172130z probability of watch issuance...95 percent summary...tornado watch issuance downstream of ww 562 is expected by 2130z as a qlcs races ewd from ind. widespread damaging winds along with a few tornadoes appear likely...some of which may be significant. discussion...current 55-60 kt movement of a qlcs and semi-discrete supercells across wrn ind extrapolates to a 2230-2300z timing at the ern edge of ww 562. while widespread cloudiness and a band of low-level waa driven rainfall have yielded negligible buoyancy per 19z iln raob...a large isallobaric response accompanying a powerful cyclone over lk mi should result in a narrow corridor of marginal buoyancy into oh by early evening. already strong wind profiles will strengthen further...supporting the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ..grams/mead.. 11/17/2013 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...pbz...rlx...cle...iln...dtx... lat...lon 41738357 42118096 41818037 40558065 39248185 38618291 38608340 38858378 39118393 40028389 41738357 h2. 1540 !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5507/10911832356_7dcd9d73d4.jpg! h2. 1549 It's looking a bit rough in Indiana in this 3:37 p.m. EST warnings map. Warnings can be issued for only a small part of the county, but this map fills in the entire county. !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5507/10911832356_7dcd9d73d4.jpg! br. Here's the "Wunderground.com severe weather map":http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp?region=mw&setprefs.0.key=SVRMAP&setprefs.0.val=mw%23gotoMap from around 3:40 p.m. EST. red = tornado warning yellow = severe thunderstorm warning !http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7301/10911910026_afb560ce5b_z.jpg! h2. 1632 New "tornado watch issued":http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0566.html for areas east of I-75. This one includes Lucas County. This is not a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch. !http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0566_radar_init_resize.gif! br. The 4:23 p.m. warnings map looks less imposing. !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5513/10912636535_5866038333.jpg! br. Some small cells have formed in the Toledo area out ahead of the main line. Thunder can be heard now in West Toledo. !http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7434/10912649345_9130579567.jpg! br. Loop ending at 4:20 p.m. showing the small isolated cells. !http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2841/10912682526_dd60b9e7b2_o.gif! h2. 1647 fxus61 kcle 172132 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 432 pm est sun nov 17 2013 synopsis... strong low pressure tracking across the great lakes will push a strong cold front across the area this evening. high pressure from the plains states will cross the area by tuesday night and move off the east coast by wednesday night. the next cold front will move in on thursday and there will likely be a wave of low pressure develop on the front. && near term /until 6 am monday morning/... updated to added tornado watch to the ohio portion of the forecast area. more then likely a watch will be needed for nw pa it is possible that it could be a severe thunderstorm watch. no changes to the wording. dangerous situation with 90-100 kt 500 mb west jet sliding in over top of the 65 knot low level south jet. plenty of bulk shear and 1 km shear 30-80 knots. the dry slot in the lower layers will be filling in with deeper moisture from the southwest to lower the lcl. decent cooling aloft. the cape is not very high...generally under 500 j/kg...but it is not all that much higher to the west and it is obviously enough given the terrific dynamics. the broken line of super cells to the west will move east steadily...eventually picking up speed. the thinking is that the activity will merge into a squall line with widespread damaging winds. this may be most likely by the time it reaches i-71. in the meantime...spc tells us the tornado watch will be out by 2130z and probably get the entire forecast area. it is worth emphasizing this evening that people should not wait for visual or audio confirmation of a warning/event. if a warning is issued they should take shelter immediately. timed the line through fairly quickly early tonight...exiting nw pa by 11 pm. drying out afterward but the isallobaric pressure rises are impressive. not great cold advection but enough for the wind advisory overnight. in fact...will start the wind advisory for nw ohio with the afternoon issuance...no need to wait. warm to start...lows in the lower 40s late. && short term /6 am monday morning through wednesday night/... dry southwest flow to start on monday. it will still be windy and not sure we will not need to extend the wind advisory...especially for northern ohio near the lake erie lake shore and all of northwest pa. eventually gets cold enough aloft for lake effect and winds shift onshore in the afternoon. showers should develop along the east lakeshore and come onshore in the late afternoon/early evening. probably all rain to start as the boundary layer remains rather mild...then changing to snow monday night. an inch or two or three of snow is possible in the snowbelt if the bands are persistent...most likely across inland nw pa. high pressure builds in on tuesday. any remaining lake effect activity will taper off in the morning. && long term /thursday through sunday/... the next cold front will be moving into the central lakes on thursday and should move across the region on friday. expect showers to move across the region thursday night and friday. there should be enough cold air into the region by friday night to change over to snow then persisting into saturday. the snow will mainly be in the snowbelt saturday into saturday night. thursday will be the warmest day of the extended with highs in the upper 40s to near 50. cooler by saturday with highs in the 30s. && aviation /18z sunday through thursday/... southerly winds will increase through the afternoon with gusts to 35 knots common across the west and along the lakeshore. expect to see mvfr cloud cover to spread back into the area from the southwest. this may be a bit slower to occur across the east but with some scattered showers we expect there will still be at least some patchy mvfr conditions. the main concern will be the severe thunderstorm potential along a strong cold front that will arrive in the toledo area around 22z...kcle and kmfd around 00z and kyng and keri around 02z. severe gusts will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. winds in the wake of the front will shift to the southwest and increase. most locations will see gusts 35 to 40 knots through the overnight. outlook...non-vfr conditions will be scattered across the region in showers. a few shsn monday night...mainly across ne oh/nw pa. conditions improving to vfr from west to east tuesday. && marine... winds will shift from the south to the west southwest this evening as a cold front moves across the lake. severe thunderstorms may produce wind gusts over 50 knots with the frontal passage. the winds in the wake of the front should remain around 40 knots. since we will have gales we expect water levels to drop with it bottoming out about 40 inches below levels for safe navigation. the gales will continue into at least monday afternoon. water levels will not recover until winds begin to shift to the nw and decrease. high pressure will move across the lake on tuesday with lighter winds. as the high moves east of the region on wednesday southerly winds will return. these southerly winds will increase into thursday as another cold front moves into the central great lakes. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...wind advisory until 7 am est monday for ohz011>014-020>023- 031>033-038-089. wind advisory until 7 am est monday for ohz003-006>010-017>019- 027>030-036-037-047. pa...wind advisory until 7 am est monday for paz001>003. marine...gale warning until 4 pm est monday for lez061-142>149-162>169. low water advisory until 4 pm est monday for lez142>144- 162>164. && $$ synopsis...kosarik near term...kieltyka/kosarik short term...kosarik long term...mullen aviation...mullen marine...mullen h2. 1700 Statement as of 4:47 PM EST on November 17, 2013 The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Defiance County in Northwest Ohio... Fulton County in Northwest Ohio... northern Henry County in Northwest Ohio... southeastern Williams County in Northwest Ohio... * until 530 PM EST * at 442 PM EST... severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 5 miles east of Edgerton to 10 miles east of Hicksville to Paulding... and moving northeast at 70 mph. Hazard... 70 mph wind gusts. Source... radar indicated. Impact... expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to Mobile homes... roofs and outbuildings. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Stryker around 455 PM EST. Archbold around 500 PM EST. Wauseon and Napoleon around 505 PM EST. Liberty Center around 510 PM EST. Delta around 515 PM EST. Swanton around 520 PM EST. Other locations in the warning include Jewell... Evansport... Pettisville... Elmira... Burlington... Ridgeville Corners... Okolona... Tedrow... Gerald and Oakshade. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. h2. 1704 Statement as of 4:58 PM EST on November 17, 2013 ... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for northern Allen... southeastern Paulding... Van Wert... Putnam and east Central Adams counties until 515 PM EST... At 455 PM EST... severe thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado were located along a line extending from 5 miles northwest of Continental to Kalida to Delphos... and moving east at 70 mph. Hazard... tornado and quarter size hail. Source... radar indicated rotation. Impact... Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals. Tree damage is likely. These dangerous storms will be near... Ottawa and Glandorf around 505 PM EST. Leipsic and Columbus Grove around 510 PM EST. Bluffton and Pandora around 515 PM EST. Other locations in the warning include Gomer... Vaughnsville... Miller City... Cairo... Prentiss... West Leipsic... Belmore... Rockport... Beaverdam and Gilboa. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Lat... Lon 4072 8460 4072 8479 4069 8480 4068 8490 4085 8486 4103 8459 4116 8406 4116 8387 4083 8387 time... Mot... loc 2158z 250deg 62kt 4117 8428 4102 8421 4085 8431 Tornado... radar indicated hail... 1.00in Marsili h2. 1710 Severe Thunderstorm Warning Statement as of 5:01 PM EST on November 17, 2013 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Hancock County in Northwest Ohio Lucas County in Northwest Ohio Wood County in Northwest Ohio * until 600 PM EST * at 455 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from 20 miles west of Whitehouse to 29 miles west of Rawson... and moving east at 60 mph. * Locations impacted include... Custar... Waterville... Sylvania... Toledo... Bowling Green... Findlay... Whitehouse... Weston... Weston... McComb... Holland... Precautionary/preparedness actions... This is a dangerous storm. Seek shelter inside now and stay away from windows. This storm has a history of producing damaging winds. Seek shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight. Tornadoes could develop with little to no advance warning. Lat... Lon 4171 8389 4174 8345 4172 8341 4170 8342 4169 8337 4172 8334 4163 8318 4175 8310 4174 8309 4162 8316 4162 8341 4099 8342 4099 8346 4091 8348 4090 8352 4082 8351 4081 8388 time... Mot... loc 2159z 262deg 53kt 4160 8409 4087 8425 Laplante h2. 1719 Statement as of 5:07 PM EST on November 17, 2013 The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a * Tornado Warning for... southeastern Defiance County in Northwest Ohio... southeastern Henry County in Northwest Ohio... northwestern Putnam County in west central Ohio... * until 530 PM EST * at 503 PM EST... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Continental... and moving northeast at 70 mph. Hazard... tornado and quarter size hail. Source... radar indicated rotation. Impact... Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Holgate around 515 PM EST. Deshler around 520 PM EST. McClure around 525 PM EST. Other locations in the warning include Prentiss... Gallup... Hamler... Elery... Malinta and Grelton. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Lat... Lon 4104 8423 4116 8434 4119 8433 4148 8387 4137 8386 4118 8387 time... Mot... loc 2207z 234deg 59kt 4116 8419 Tornado... radar indicated hail... 1.00in Marsili h2. 1725 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Wood County in Northwest Ohio... * until 600 PM EST * at 517 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located near Deshler... or 7 miles southwest of Custar... and moving northeast at 70 mph. * Locations impacted include... Custar... Bowling Green... North Baltimore... Weston... Perrysburg... Rossford... Northwood... Hoytville... Milton Center... Grand Rapids... Bairdstown... Cygnet... Bloomdale... Tontogany... Jerry City... Portage... Haskins... West Millgrove... Wayne and Risingsun. Precautionary/preparedness actions... This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning that was in effect for the same area. The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. If no basement is available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or closet. Lat... Lon 4141 8389 4144 8379 4146 8378 4146 8375 4149 8371 4153 8371 4155 8368 4157 8361 4162 8357 4162 8343 4117 8342 4116 8389 time... Mot... loc 2219z 239deg 63kt 4124 8388 Laplante h2. 1727 JustaSooner comment at TT: "Concerned aobut this area near Neapolis moving towards Whitehouse, Monclova, and Holland." posted by JustaSooner on Nov 17, 2013 at 05:24:26 pm h2. 1740 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 535 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO... UNTIL 600 PM EST AT 534 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PERRYSBURG...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... TOLEDO AROUND 540 PM EST. OREGON AROUND 550 PM EST. ! posted by JustaSooner on Nov 17, 2013 at 05:36:38 pm h2. 1745 lowercase version Statement as of 5:35 PM EST on November 17, 2013 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... eastern Lucas County in Northwest Ohio... * until 600 PM EST * at 534 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located near Perrysburg... or 5 miles northeast of Waterville... and moving northeast at 60 mph. * This tornadic storm will be near... Toledo around 540 PM EST. Oregon around 550 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic storm include Harbor View. Precautionary/preparedness actions... The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. If no basement is available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or closet. Lat... Lon 4172 8376 4174 8345 4172 8341 4170 8342 4169 8337 4172 8334 4163 8318 4174 8311 4175 8310 4174 8309 4163 8316 4162 8357 4157 8363 time... Mot... loc 2235z 238deg 54kt 4156 8364 h2. 1805 +*Lucas County*+ {{feed=http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=OHC095&y=0 desc}} +*Fulton County*+ {{feed=http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=OHC051&y=0 desc}} +*Monroe County*+ {{feed=http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=MIC115&y=0 desc}} h2. 1606 This XML feed from the NWS broke down this afternoon. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.61000&lon=-83.8&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=dwml It redirects to a Web page and the message at the top states: q. The "Forecast At A Glance" icons, hourly weather graph feature, Spanish version, and temperatures in Celsius are temporarily not available for this location for technical reasons. We apologize for any inconvenience. q.. forecast.io also could not display watches and warnings, probably because of the broken XML. http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/138464/Toledo_area_weather_alerts h2. 1811 Maybe I should access the Atom feeds listed above in the feed commands at TT. Lucas County Atom feed: http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=OHC095&y=0 Lucas County Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for Lucas (OHC095) Ohio Issued by the National Weather Service - 2013-11-17T18:00:00-05:00 Severe Weather Statement issued November 17 at 6:00PM EST until November 17 at 6:00PM EST by NWS - 2013-11-17T18:00:00-05:00 ...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LUCAS COUNTY EXPIRES AT 600 PM... THE STORM HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE COUNTY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN OHIO. Tornado Watch issued November 17 at 4:25PM EST until November 18 at 12:00AM EST by NWS - 2013-11-17T16:25:00-05:00 TORNADO WATCH 566 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND ASHTABULA ATHENS BELMONT BROWN Wind Advisory issued November 17 at 3:25PM EST until November 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS - 2013-11-17T15:25:00-05:00 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WINDS...WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. HIGHER WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS IN WHICH CASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR STORMS WITH ROTATION. * TIMING...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD Fulton County Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for Fulton (OHC051) Ohio Issued by the National Weather Service - 2013-11-17T12:04:00-05:00 High Wind Warning issued November 17 at 12:04PM EST until November 18 at 1:00AM EST by NWS - 2013-11-17T12:04:00-05:00 ...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... .SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM IOWA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD. EVEN HIGHER WIND Monroe County Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for Monroe (MIC115) Michigan Issued by the National Weather Service - 2013-11-17T17:58:00-05:00 Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued November 17 at 5:58PM EST until November 17 at 6:30PM EST by NWS - 2013-11-17T17:58:00-05:00 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 630 PM EST * AT 555 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARLETON TO MONROE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Tornado Watch issued November 17 at 11:20AM EST until November 17 at 8:00PM EST by NWS - 2013-11-17T11:20:00-05:00 TORNADO WATCH 562 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY BAY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN High Wind Warning issued November 17 at 10:29AM EST until November 18 at 5:00AM EST by NWS - 2013-11-17T10:29:00-05:00 ...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH THIS EVENING... .THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BE MARKED BY INTENSE WINDS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE ONSET OF COLDER POST FRONTAL AIR AND THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW FOR WIND h2. 1818 md 2024 concerning tornado watch 566... for oh...far nrn ky mesoscale discussion 2024 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0506 pm cst sun nov 17 2013 areas affected...oh...far nrn ky concerning...tornado watch 566... valid 172306z - 180000z the severe weather threat for tornado watch 566 continues. summary...dmgg wind and tornado risk will persist across oh and far nrn ky. with time...dmgg wind gusts /some significant/ should become the dominant threat. discussion...qlcs continues to progress across sern ind into nwrn oh...with synoptic cold front overtaking srn portions of this line. embedded circulations continue to be noted...and significant low-level shear present /e.g. 45 kt in 0-1 km layer per iln vwp data/ will support svr wind gust and isolated tornadic potential. pre-frontal showers/tstms into cntrl oh have largely remained unorganized...but an accompanying tornado risk may exist with any sustained rotating storms that can evolve. into the late evening...the cold front will continue to overtake the entire length of the qlcs. despite the loss of diurnal heating and a slightly less moist boundary layer with ewd progression...the magnitude of large-scale forcing combined with very strong low-level flow/shear will continue to support a dmgg wind gust threat /potentially significant/ across all of oh...including the columbus and cleveland metro areas. ..rogers.. 11/17/2013 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...pbz...rlx...cle...iln...iwx... lat...lon 41688058 40128075 39498145 38688243 38568386 38888455 40098455 41648381 41568227 41688058