Mon, Dec 9, 2013 winter storm forecast for Sat, Dec 14 #toledo #weather Computer models predicting extended forecasts. 1:00 p.m., Dec 9, 2013 "comment":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166676 by JustaSooner at ToledoTalk.com: q. Last couple of GFS runs hinting at a possible significant snow for you guys by the weekend. Forecast will likely change around a bit, but will throw this out there. QPF - total liquid equivalent of precipitation Timeline By Midnight Saturday AM - Light snow dev, 0.05-0.1" QPF, < 1" Snow Midnight Sat to 6AM Sat - Moderate snow, 0.25 to 0.35" QPF, 3-5" Snow 6AM to Noon Sat - Light/Mod Snow, 0.15 to 0.25" QPF, 2-3" snow Noon to 6PM Sat - Light Snow, 0.10 to 0.15" QPF, 1-2" snow 6AM Sat to Midnight Sun - Light snow, 0.05 to 0.15" QPF, 1-2" snow Midnight to 6AM Sun - System snow ending, < 0.05" QPF, < 1" Remaining of the day - some snow showers from lake effect off of Lake Michigan possible. I went with a basic 10:1 ratio for the snow amounts here, though forecast soundings indicate that the ratio could be closer to 15:1 at times, especially towards the end. This is all worst case scenario stuff as things evolve a lot being this far out. Air profile doesn't support sleet or freezing rain, so at least icing should be minimal. Snow range on this model run is about 7 to 14" across the Toledo metro area. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 09, 2013 at 01:01:55 pm # + q.. br. Mon morning, Dec 9 area forecast discussion by the Cleveland NWS: q. long term /friday through sunday/ [dec 13-15] ... more wintry weather expected during the long term period. will start the period out dry friday but precip chances will increase friday night into saturday. the new 00z models have differing solutions but both give the area another round of snow. the ecmwf solution which has been more consistent and is preferred today has low pressure passing to the south with an inverted trough swinging across the local area. this setup is favorable for accumulating snow and if the 00z run is correct some areas may need headlines. the gfs has a much more northern low but also gives several inches of snow to the area. expect confidence to increase as the week progresses and the models sort themselves out. ! posted by jr on Dec 09, 2013 at 01:45:26 pm # + q.. br. Mon evening, Dec 9 TT "comment":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166696 by JustaSooner q. Toledo area specific timeline on the latest models. 12Z Euro Model Friday through 10PM: Snow starting from the SW, no accum. 10PM to 1AM Sat: Light snow, 1-2" 1AM to 4AM: Light snow, 1-2" 4AM to 10AM: Light/Mdt snow, 1" north to 3" south 10AM to 4PM: Light snow, ~1" Worst case: 4-8" snow 18Z GFS Through 1AM Sat: Light snow starting, < 1" 1AM to 7AM: Mdt/Hvy snow, 3-5" 7AM to 1PM: Mdt snow, 2-3" 1PM to 7PM: Light/Mdt snow, 1-2" 7PM to 1AM Sun: Mdt snow, 2-3" 1AM to 7AM: Light snow, 1-2" After 7AM: Scattered light snow/squalls from Lake Michigan Worst case: 9-16" So the main take away... Models are being consistent now about bring in a snow storm up the Ohio River valley at the end of the week. It is likely that there will be an area of heavy storm. The exact path will vary and intensities will jump around a bit the next few days. The GFS is pretty intense right now on amounts and a lot of that is due to projected strong wrap around. It wouldn't be unrealistic based on the forecast surface winds to assume there will be some lake enhancement to the snow for the Toledo area - as rare as that usually is. Late Saturday there is a chance some warmer air will get pulled up and this could induce a bit more sleet into the precip, which of course brings snow totals down. Again, nothing locked in. I've seen GFS switch 48 hours out and have a completely different solution. However, right now ECMWF and GFS are in a pretty good agreement overall - so that deserves attention. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 09, 2013 at 06:08:06 pm # + q.. br. My Tue, morning TT comment regarding the morning's area forecast discussion issued by the Cle NWS: q. Tue, Dec 10, 2013 - 6:39 a.m. NWS area forecast discussion long term /saturday through monday/... an interesting forecast shaping up. the 00z models are in much better agreement than they were yesterday. the gfs has come around to the ecmwf solution of low pressure passing to the south. later shifts will have to monitor this but for now will go with all snow. there is a good possibility some headlines may be needed. ! posted by jr on Dec 10, 2013 at 09:09:14 am # + q.. br. Noon time, Tue, Dec 10 TT "comment":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166757 by JustaSooner q. Quick run down of the latest models precip amounts...keep in mind these are going to keep fluctuating, so just expect that it is going to snow. :) All amounts are snow using 10:1 ratio. 00Z Euro/ECMWF Through 10AM Sat - Trace to 1" (east to west) 10AM Sat to 1AM Sun - Light Snow, by 1AM an add'l 2-3" Totals down to 3-4". 12Z GFS Through 1AM Sat - Trace to a half inch of snow. 1AM to 7AM - 1" to 2" 7AM to 1PM - 0.5 to 1" 1PM to 7PM - 1 to 2" 7PM to 1AM Sun - 1 to 2" After 1AM - System snow ending, < 1" Totals: 3 to 8 inches. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 10, 2013 at 12:09:51 pm # + q.. br. Noon time, Tue, Dec 10 info from http://forecast.io/lines assuming 10:1 ratio of snow to liquid precip: gfs totals: 0.636 equals 6.4 inches of total snowfall ForecastIO totals: 0.442 equals 4.4 inches of total snowfall fnmoc totals: 0.242 equals 2.4 inches of total snowfall Seems most of the snow is forecast to fall between 7am Saturday and 2am Sunday. A snowy day and evening on Saturday. Good day to finish painting a room in our house. It's possible that the heaviest snowfall may occur in the area defined by Findlay, Mansfield, Columbus, and Cincinnati. liquid precip : in/hr sat, dec 14, 2013 5am gfs 0.013 Forecast 0.011 cmc: 0.010 fnmoc: 0.002 6am gfs: 0.021 Forecast: 0.015 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.002 7am gfs: 0.027 Forecast: 0.018 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.003 8am gfs: 0.029 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.003 9am: gfs: 0.029 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.002 10am: gfs: 0.029 Forecat: 0.019 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.002 11am: gfs: 0.029 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.002 12pm: gfs: 0.028 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.010 fnmoc: 0.002 1pm: gfs: 0.028 Forecast: 0.018 cmc: 0.010 fnmoc: 0.002 2pm: gfs: 0.028 Forecat: 0.018 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.004 3pm: gfs: 0.027 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.006 4pm: gfs: 0.027 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.009 5pm: gfs: 0.028 Forecast: 0.020 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.011 6pm: gfs: 0.030 Forecat: 0.022 fnmoc: 0.014 cmc: 0.012 7pm: gfs: 0.032 Forecast: 0.023 fnmoc: 0.015 cmc: 0.012 8pm: gfs: 0.033 Forecast: 0.023 fnmoc: 0.017 cmc: 0.012 9pm: gfs: 0.035 Forecast: 0.024 fnmoc: 0.018 cmc: 0.011 10pm: gfs: 0.035 Forecast: 0.024 fnmoc: 0.019 cmc: 0.010 11pm: gfs: 0.032 Forecast: 0.022 fnmoc: 0.020 cmc: 0.009 Sun, Dec 15, 2013 12am: gfs: 0.029 Forecast: 0.020 fnmoc: 0.020 cmc: 0.008 1am: gfs: 0.025 fnmoc: 0.020 Forecast: 0.018 cmc: 0.007 2am: gfs: 0.020 fnmoc: 0.019 Forecast: 0.015 cmc: 0.006 3am: fnmoc: 0.017 gfs: 0.014 Forecast: 0.011 cmc: 0.006 4am: fnmoc: 0.013 gfs: 0.008 Forecast: 0.007 cmc: 0.005 h2. Wed, Dec 11 from this morning's nws afd: the snow should end from west to east saturday night. suspect that much of the area could see 4 to 6 inches of snow by that time. since I don't watch tv news, I'm guessing that end-of-the-world scenarios are being discussed by the climaterrorists for four inches of snowfall that may be spread out over a 15 to 20 hour time period. ! posted by jr on Dec 11, 2013 at 07:56:59 am hr. http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166837 12Z models can all be seen in the first post. Not a lot of changes. The storm is now in NAM's forecast window and its first shot of it has a more southern path than GFS/Euro were doing. NAM: 1-3" North, 2-4" South GFS: 6-8" metro wide GEM: 6-8" metro wide 12Z Euro is just now coming in, it is only up through 7AM Saturday as of right now with 2-4" by then. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 11, 2013 at 01:48:12 pm h2. thu, dec 12 Pretty good model consistency and agreement among almost all of them now on the snow this weekend. Model Snow Forecast GEM - 6-8" GFS - 4-6" at the MI border to 6-8" south of the turnpike. NAM - 3-6" Winter Storm Watches will likely go up tomorrow to cover Saturday. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 02:41:47 am   hr. my early morning comment: dec 12, 2013 3:15 am cleveland nws "area forecast discussion":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html that includes the counties of lucas and wood: q. it appears that periods of heavy snow will be possible on saturday. much of the area will see 4 to 6 inches of snow from friday evening through saturday afternoon. this isn't enough for a watch and expect that later shifts will go with advisories for most of the area. q.. br. 3:39 am detroit/pontiac nws "area forecast discussion":http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 that includes monroe county: q. expecting a widespread advisory snow event for all of southeastern michigan beginning saturday at midnight and persisting to approximately 00z sunday. these inverted trough type systems can turn into a longer duration grinder. the cold system and the lack of true higher theta e content in the low levels suggests higher snow ratios in the 12:1 to 13:1 range. highest snowfall amounts...3 to 5 inches...are expected to fall south of 8 mile. q.. br. 4:27 am northern indiana nws "area forecast discussion":http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IWX&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 that includes the counties of fulton and henry: q. roebber snow ratio probabilities tied to consensus blended qpf of one quarter inch nw corner to one half in se corner portends a general 3 to 6 inch snow. hwvr as stated yda upside potential can not be ignored w/potential for band of 6 to 8 inches alg/s of a winimac...columbia city...wauseon line. q.. hr. NWS IWX's thoughts... ..SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... CURRENT COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WOULD BE FAVORED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROCHESTER TO TOLEDO LINE. HOWEVER SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 02:28:38 pm hr. The 18Z model run... NAM Through 4AM Sat: 1 or less near I-75, 1-2" closer to IN Border 4AM to 7AM: ~1 inch I-75 and east north of US 6. West/South of that area 1-2" 7AM to 10AM: ~1 inch near Lake to 1-2" further SW away from the lake. 10AM to 1PM: ~1 inch North of US 6, 1-2" south Range: 2-4" near the lake, 4-8" west and south of that area. GFS Through 4AM Sat: 1 inch 4AM to 7AM: 1 inch 7AM to 10AM: 1 inch 10AM to 1PM: 1" north to 1-2" south 1PM to 4PM: 1 inch Range: 3-6" ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 04:57:31 pm