Mon, Dec 9, 2013 winter storm forecast for Sat, Dec 14 #toledo #weather Computer models predicting extended forecasts. 1:00 p.m., Dec 9, 2013 "comment":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166676 by JustaSooner at ToledoTalk.com: q. Last couple of GFS runs hinting at a possible significant snow for you guys by the weekend. Forecast will likely change around a bit, but will throw this out there. QPF - total liquid equivalent of precipitation Timeline By Midnight Saturday AM - Light snow dev, 0.05-0.1" QPF, < 1" Snow Midnight Sat to 6AM Sat - Moderate snow, 0.25 to 0.35" QPF, 3-5" Snow 6AM to Noon Sat - Light/Mod Snow, 0.15 to 0.25" QPF, 2-3" snow Noon to 6PM Sat - Light Snow, 0.10 to 0.15" QPF, 1-2" snow 6AM Sat to Midnight Sun - Light snow, 0.05 to 0.15" QPF, 1-2" snow Midnight to 6AM Sun - System snow ending, < 0.05" QPF, < 1" Remaining of the day - some snow showers from lake effect off of Lake Michigan possible. I went with a basic 10:1 ratio for the snow amounts here, though forecast soundings indicate that the ratio could be closer to 15:1 at times, especially towards the end. This is all worst case scenario stuff as things evolve a lot being this far out. Air profile doesn't support sleet or freezing rain, so at least icing should be minimal. Snow range on this model run is about 7 to 14" across the Toledo metro area. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 09, 2013 at 01:01:55 pm # + q.. br. Mon morning, Dec 9 area forecast discussion by the Cleveland NWS: q. long term /friday through sunday/ [dec 13-15] ... more wintry weather expected during the long term period. will start the period out dry friday but precip chances will increase friday night into saturday. the new 00z models have differing solutions but both give the area another round of snow. the ecmwf solution which has been more consistent and is preferred today has low pressure passing to the south with an inverted trough swinging across the local area. this setup is favorable for accumulating snow and if the 00z run is correct some areas may need headlines. the gfs has a much more northern low but also gives several inches of snow to the area. expect confidence to increase as the week progresses and the models sort themselves out. ! posted by jr on Dec 09, 2013 at 01:45:26 pm # + q.. br. Mon evening, Dec 9 TT "comment":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166696 by JustaSooner q. Toledo area specific timeline on the latest models. 12Z Euro Model Friday through 10PM: Snow starting from the SW, no accum. 10PM to 1AM Sat: Light snow, 1-2" 1AM to 4AM: Light snow, 1-2" 4AM to 10AM: Light/Mdt snow, 1" north to 3" south 10AM to 4PM: Light snow, ~1" Worst case: 4-8" snow 18Z GFS Through 1AM Sat: Light snow starting, < 1" 1AM to 7AM: Mdt/Hvy snow, 3-5" 7AM to 1PM: Mdt snow, 2-3" 1PM to 7PM: Light/Mdt snow, 1-2" 7PM to 1AM Sun: Mdt snow, 2-3" 1AM to 7AM: Light snow, 1-2" After 7AM: Scattered light snow/squalls from Lake Michigan Worst case: 9-16" So the main take away... Models are being consistent now about bring in a snow storm up the Ohio River valley at the end of the week. It is likely that there will be an area of heavy storm. The exact path will vary and intensities will jump around a bit the next few days. The GFS is pretty intense right now on amounts and a lot of that is due to projected strong wrap around. It wouldn't be unrealistic based on the forecast surface winds to assume there will be some lake enhancement to the snow for the Toledo area - as rare as that usually is. Late Saturday there is a chance some warmer air will get pulled up and this could induce a bit more sleet into the precip, which of course brings snow totals down. Again, nothing locked in. I've seen GFS switch 48 hours out and have a completely different solution. However, right now ECMWF and GFS are in a pretty good agreement overall - so that deserves attention. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 09, 2013 at 06:08:06 pm # + q.. br. My Tue, morning TT comment regarding the morning's area forecast discussion issued by the Cle NWS: q. Tue, Dec 10, 2013 - 6:39 a.m. NWS area forecast discussion long term /saturday through monday/... an interesting forecast shaping up. the 00z models are in much better agreement than they were yesterday. the gfs has come around to the ecmwf solution of low pressure passing to the south. later shifts will have to monitor this but for now will go with all snow. there is a good possibility some headlines may be needed. ! posted by jr on Dec 10, 2013 at 09:09:14 am # + q.. br. Noon time, Tue, Dec 10 TT "comment":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166757 by JustaSooner q. Quick run down of the latest models precip amounts...keep in mind these are going to keep fluctuating, so just expect that it is going to snow. :) All amounts are snow using 10:1 ratio. 00Z Euro/ECMWF Through 10AM Sat - Trace to 1" (east to west) 10AM Sat to 1AM Sun - Light Snow, by 1AM an add'l 2-3" Totals down to 3-4". 12Z GFS Through 1AM Sat - Trace to a half inch of snow. 1AM to 7AM - 1" to 2" 7AM to 1PM - 0.5 to 1" 1PM to 7PM - 1 to 2" 7PM to 1AM Sun - 1 to 2" After 1AM - System snow ending, < 1" Totals: 3 to 8 inches. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 10, 2013 at 12:09:51 pm # + q.. br. Noon time, Tue, Dec 10 info from http://forecast.io/lines assuming 10:1 ratio of snow to liquid precip: gfs totals: 0.636 equals 6.4 inches of total snowfall ForecastIO totals: 0.442 equals 4.4 inches of total snowfall fnmoc totals: 0.242 equals 2.4 inches of total snowfall Seems most of the snow is forecast to fall between 7am Saturday and 2am Sunday. A snowy day and evening on Saturday. Good day to finish painting a room in our house. It's possible that the heaviest snowfall may occur in the area defined by Findlay, Mansfield, Columbus, and Cincinnati. liquid precip : in/hr sat, dec 14, 2013 5am gfs 0.013 Forecast 0.011 cmc: 0.010 fnmoc: 0.002 6am gfs: 0.021 Forecast: 0.015 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.002 7am gfs: 0.027 Forecast: 0.018 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.003 8am gfs: 0.029 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.003 9am: gfs: 0.029 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.002 10am: gfs: 0.029 Forecat: 0.019 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.002 11am: gfs: 0.029 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.002 12pm: gfs: 0.028 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.010 fnmoc: 0.002 1pm: gfs: 0.028 Forecast: 0.018 cmc: 0.010 fnmoc: 0.002 2pm: gfs: 0.028 Forecat: 0.018 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.004 3pm: gfs: 0.027 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.011 fnmoc: 0.006 4pm: gfs: 0.027 Forecast: 0.019 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.009 5pm: gfs: 0.028 Forecast: 0.020 cmc: 0.012 fnmoc: 0.011 6pm: gfs: 0.030 Forecat: 0.022 fnmoc: 0.014 cmc: 0.012 7pm: gfs: 0.032 Forecast: 0.023 fnmoc: 0.015 cmc: 0.012 8pm: gfs: 0.033 Forecast: 0.023 fnmoc: 0.017 cmc: 0.012 9pm: gfs: 0.035 Forecast: 0.024 fnmoc: 0.018 cmc: 0.011 10pm: gfs: 0.035 Forecast: 0.024 fnmoc: 0.019 cmc: 0.010 11pm: gfs: 0.032 Forecast: 0.022 fnmoc: 0.020 cmc: 0.009 Sun, Dec 15, 2013 12am: gfs: 0.029 Forecast: 0.020 fnmoc: 0.020 cmc: 0.008 1am: gfs: 0.025 fnmoc: 0.020 Forecast: 0.018 cmc: 0.007 2am: gfs: 0.020 fnmoc: 0.019 Forecast: 0.015 cmc: 0.006 3am: fnmoc: 0.017 gfs: 0.014 Forecast: 0.011 cmc: 0.006 4am: fnmoc: 0.013 gfs: 0.008 Forecast: 0.007 cmc: 0.005 h2. Wed, Dec 11 from this morning's nws afd: the snow should end from west to east saturday night. suspect that much of the area could see 4 to 6 inches of snow by that time. since I don't watch tv news, I'm guessing that end-of-the-world scenarios are being discussed by the climaterrorists for four inches of snowfall that may be spread out over a 15 to 20 hour time period. ! posted by jr on Dec 11, 2013 at 07:56:59 am hr. http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#166837 12Z models can all be seen in the first post. Not a lot of changes. The storm is now in NAM's forecast window and its first shot of it has a more southern path than GFS/Euro were doing. NAM: 1-3" North, 2-4" South GFS: 6-8" metro wide GEM: 6-8" metro wide 12Z Euro is just now coming in, it is only up through 7AM Saturday as of right now with 2-4" by then. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 11, 2013 at 01:48:12 pm h2. thu, dec 12 Pretty good model consistency and agreement among almost all of them now on the snow this weekend. Model Snow Forecast GEM - 6-8" GFS - 4-6" at the MI border to 6-8" south of the turnpike. NAM - 3-6" Winter Storm Watches will likely go up tomorrow to cover Saturday. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 02:41:47 am � hr. my early morning comment: dec 12, 2013 3:15 am cleveland nws "area forecast discussion":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html that includes the counties of lucas and wood: q. it appears that periods of heavy snow will be possible on saturday. much of the area will see 4 to 6 inches of snow from friday evening through saturday afternoon. this isn't enough for a watch and expect that later shifts will go with advisories for most of the area. q.. br. 3:39 am detroit/pontiac nws "area forecast discussion":http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 that includes monroe county: q. expecting a widespread advisory snow event for all of southeastern michigan beginning saturday at midnight and persisting to approximately 00z sunday. these inverted trough type systems can turn into a longer duration grinder. the cold system and the lack of true higher theta e content in the low levels suggests higher snow ratios in the 12:1 to 13:1 range. highest snowfall amounts...3 to 5 inches...are expected to fall south of 8 mile. q.. br. 4:27 am northern indiana nws "area forecast discussion":http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IWX&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 that includes the counties of fulton and henry: q. roebber snow ratio probabilities tied to consensus blended qpf of one quarter inch nw corner to one half in se corner portends a general 3 to 6 inch snow. hwvr as stated yda upside potential can not be ignored w/potential for band of 6 to 8 inches alg/s of a winimac...columbia city...wauseon line. q.. hr. NWS IWX's thoughts... ..SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... CURRENT COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WOULD BE FAVORED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROCHESTER TO TOLEDO LINE. HOWEVER SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 02:28:38 pm hr. The 18Z model run... NAM Through 4AM Sat: 1 or less near I-75, 1-2" closer to IN Border 4AM to 7AM: ~1 inch I-75 and east north of US 6. West/South of that area 1-2" 7AM to 10AM: ~1 inch near Lake to 1-2" further SW away from the lake. 10AM to 1PM: ~1 inch North of US 6, 1-2" south Range: 2-4" near the lake, 4-8" west and south of that area. GFS Through 4AM Sat: 1 inch 4AM to 7AM: 1 inch 7AM to 10AM: 1 inch 10AM to 1PM: 1" north to 1-2" south 1PM to 4PM: 1 inch Range: 3-6" ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 04:57:31 pm hr. Winter Wx Adv for counties west of I-75. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 INCHES BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IMPACTS... * ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED... SLICK AND HAZARDOUS FRIDAY NIGHT... CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY... MAKING TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA DIFFICULT. * USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING SNOW AS THIS CAN BE A VERY STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 12, 2013 at 07:29:31 pm # + hr. excerpts from the "area forecast discussion":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html national weather service cleveland oh 655 pm est thu dec 12 2013 q. it appears that much of the area will see 4 to 6 inches of snow from friday evening through saturday afternoon. i think the snow will arrive fairly quickly friday night. probably around midnight or soon after from west to east. some of the better snow (moderate snow perhaps briefly heavy??) could occur saturday morning the storm track makes me nervous... the tracks into the ohio valley often lead to a band of heavier snow somewhere on the north side of the system...but none of the models so far this week have generated heavy qpf. a long lasting advisory from late friday night into saturday evening is likely. we will wait to take a peak at tonight's runs just to make sure that the qpf amounts are not sneaking up. in any case...very little wind and temperatures up near freezing *should make the event manageable* and give some good sledding/cross country snow. q.. h2. Fri, Dec 13 urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 321 am est fri dec 13 2013 .an area of low pressure will move up the ohio valley tonight and saturday spreading snow across the region. this is a classic set up for accumulating snow across the area. the snow should begin from west to east tonight and then last for around 24 hours. periods of moderate to heavy are possible at times...especially saturday morning. ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-131630- /o.new.kcle.ww.y.0016.131214t0200z-131215t0000z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot- crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion... mount gilead...mount vernon 321 am est fri dec 13 2013 ...winter weather advisory in effect from 9 pm this evening to 7 pm est saturday... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter weather advisory which is in effect from 9 pm this evening to 7 pm est saturday. * accumulations...5 to 6 inches. * timing...the snow will spread across the region from west to east this evening and then taper off saturday evening. * winds...southeast to east winds at 5 to 15 mph. * impacts...snow accumulation can make roads slick...requiring lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while driving. * temperatures...in the 20s tonight climbing into the lower 30s on saturday. * visibilities...less than one half mile at times. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of winter weather conditions such as light snow, blowing snow, sleet, freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be significant, the word advisory implies that severe winter weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. hr. short term /saturday through sunday night/... models remain fairly consistent handling the low moving up the ohio valley tonight and saturday. confidence is fairly high today. qpf amounts are up a little with the new 00z runs with much of area now progged to get around 0.50 inches liquid equivalent. with snow to water ratios dipping to around 10 to 1 on saturday expect most of the area to get between 5 and 6 inches of snow. this is consistent with the earlier thinking of 4 to 6 inches. have gone ahead and hoisted a winter weather advisory for the entire area. the precip will arrive in the west this evening and will start the headline a little sooner there. by 06z sunday most of the snow should be gone. the scenario the next 36 hours is a classic setup for good snow across the area with an inverted trough sliding east across the region. the gulf should open and expecting good isentropic lift. some moderate to heavy snow could occur on saturday morning for a few hours. some banding is likely as strong low level convergence is likely somewhere across the forecast area. locations under this preferred area could see locally higher snow amounts. unfortunately right now it is tough to tell where and if this will occur. later shifts may need to upgrade a row of counties to a warning at some point. other concern today is possibility of mixed precip saturday afternoon in the far south. the southern end of our area should be close to the transition zone. the worst case scenario would be a period of sleet falling on top of snow in the millersburg...canton and youngstown areas. for now will continue with all snow but this too will need to be watched. some lake effect snow is likely sunday and sunday night. it does not look like the moisture will be deep enough to sustain accums high enough for more headlines. after getting close to freezing on saturday...temps will again plummet. have used a blend of guidance numbers today. hr. Includes Fulton County ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR OR SOUTH OF US ROUTE 6 ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. IMPACTS... * ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED...SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TONIGHT... CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. * USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING SNOW AS THIS CAN BE A VERY STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 13, 2013 at 01:57:47 pm # + hr. Lucas County, Ohio Winter Weather Advisory Statement as of 3:45 PM EST on December 13, 2013 ... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday... * accumulations... 5 to 7 inches. * Timing... the snow will spread across the region from west to east tonight and then taper off Saturday evening. * Winds... southeast to east winds at 5 to 15 mph. * Impacts... snow accumulation will make roads slick... requiring lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while driving. * Temperatures... in the 20s tonight climbing to 28 to 32 on Saturday. * Visibilities... less than one half mile at times. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Weather Advisory is normally issued for a variety of winter weather conditions such as light snow... blowing snow... sleet... freezing rain and wind chills. While the weather will be significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter weather is not anticipated. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates. hr. Fulton County, Ohio Fulton Winter Storm Warning Statement as of 10:38 AM CST on December 13, 2013 ... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Saturday... The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Saturday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect. Hazardous weather... * snow will overspread the area from southwest to northeast this evening... becoming heavy at times overnight through early Saturday afternoon. * Total accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are expected by early Saturday evening with locally higher amounts possible. At this time... the highest amounts are expected near or south of US Route 6 across Indiana and Northwest Ohio. Impacts... * roads will become snow covered... slick and hazardous tonight... continuing into Saturday. This will make travel dangerous across the warning area. * Visibilities will be reduced to less than one quarter mile with the heavy snow. * Use caution when shoveling snow as this can be a very strenuous activity. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. hr. Monroe County, Michigan Monroe Winter Weather Advisory Statement as of 12:32 PM EST on December 13, 2013 ... Winter Weather Advisory now in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EST Saturday night... The Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EST Saturday night. Hazardous weather... * light snow will develop tonight. Moderate snow will fall tomorrow... ending Saturday evening. * 4 to 6 inches of snow is expected by Saturday evening. * East winds will increase to around 20 mph late tonight and continue on Saturday... causing some minor blowing and drifting of the snow. Impacts... * roads will be snow covered and slippery. * Visibilities will be reduced to as low as a half mile at times. * Minor blowing and drifting snow will occur along north-south roads in open areas. Precautionary/preparedness actions... * a Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. * Prepare... plan... and stay informed. Visit http://go.USA.Gov/rr8 hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 933 pm est fri dec 13 2013 .an area of low pressure will move up the ohio valley late tonight and saturday and spread snow across the region. the snow should begin in the west toward midnight and spread to the east before sunrise. the snow will persist around 24 hours before tapering to lake effect snow showers in the snow belt. periods of moderate snow are expected...especially saturday morning. ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-141045- /o.con.kcle.ww.y.0016.000000t0000z-131215t0000z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot- crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion... mount gilead...mount vernon 933 pm est fri dec 13 2013 ...winter weather advisory remains in effect until 7 pm est saturday... * accumulations...5 to 7 inches. * timing...the snow will spread across the region from west to east tonight and then taper off saturday evening. * winds...southeast to east winds at 5 to 15 mph. * impacts...snow accumulation will make roads slick...requiring lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while driving. * temperatures...in the 20s tonight climbing to 28 to 32 on saturday. * visibilities...less than one half mile at times. precautionary/preparedness actions... while the weather will be significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. h2. Sat, Dec 14 I went outside this morning at about 6:50 a.m. to clear paths in the driveway and backyard for areas where I scatter millet for the juncos. I finished at 7:05 a.m. The first juncos, however, arrived between 6:55 and 7:00 a.m. I measured 1.5 inches of snow at 6:50 a.m. #home #birds #weather From: JR's : micro blog - Dec 14, 2013 - reply 2 replies JR: Light snow fell at 7:00 a.m. The 7am TOL temp was 23 degrees. Total snow accum by the end of today is predicted to be 4 to 7 inches. At least 10 juncos foraged in our backyard at 7:10 a.m. - 1 min ago - # - reply JR: with the E-NE wind blowing at 10 to 15 mph, we may get some lake enhancement snow today in the Toledo area. - 1 secs ago - # - reply hr. I measured 1.5 inches of new snowfall at 7:00 a.m. Light snow continued to fall, but radar shows the snow may end for a bit in the Toledo area this morning. A big hole in the snow pattern is centered over Findlay. 6:04 a.m. "AFD":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html q. short term models indicate somewhat of a lull in snow intensity thru 10 or 11 am then things should pick up again. still looks like about 2 to 4 inches of accumulation today...possibly 3 to 5 in some places where some heavier banding takes place. including early tonight...should see a total of 5 to 7 inches on average. still would prefer to keep an advisory going for this event as the snow should be light most of the time and overall totals not expected to get to the 8 inches or more criteria for the 24 hour period to warrant a warning. also a little sleet could mix into the snow at times which would lead to lesser accumulation totals. q.. hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 1133 am est sat dec 14 2013 ohz003-006>008-017-018-150045- /o.upg.kcle.ww.y.0016.000000t0000z-131215t0100z/ /o.new.kcle.ws.w.0005.131214t1633z-131215t0100z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...findlay...tiffin 1133 am est sat dec 14 2013 ...winter storm warning in effect until 8 pm est this evening... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter storm warning for heavy snow...which is in effect until 8 pm est this evening. the winter weather advisory is no longer in effect. * accumulations...additional accumulations of 3 to 5 inches for a storm total of 6 to 9 inches. * timing...snow will intensify this afternoon and be moderate to heavy for several hours. snow will decrease this evening. * winds...east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph turning north this evening. * impacts...snow accumulation will make roads slick...requiring lower speeds and greater distances between vehicles while driving. * temperatures...climbing to 28 to 32 today then falling to 17 to 21 late tonight. * visibilities...will drop to less than one half mile this afternoon. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm warning is issued when severe winter weather is expected. heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving conditions. if you will be traveling in the warning area you should choose an alternate route if possible, or you should use extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. hr. fxus61 kcle 141758 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1258 pm est sat dec 14 2013 synopsis... a low will move northeast into ohio by early tonight then shift off the mid atlantic coast into sunday leaving a trough extending west from the low into the great lakes. high pressure will move east across the area early monday then a series of cold fronts will move southeast across the region tuesday into tuesday night before high pressure pushes up the ohio valley wednesday into wednesday night. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... winter storm warning has been issued for portions of northwest ohio as band of moderate to heavy snow is developing nicely across central and northern indiana. reports as high as 4 inches have come in from the toledo area already and the snow is going to increase for the afternoon with an additional 3 to 5 inches of snowfall expected...mainly by 6-7 pm. this would push the storm total into the 6-9 inch range for most of the warning area. cloud tops are cooling on ir satellite imagery as the deformation axis pivots aloft. the dry- slot is starting to spread into extreme southern ohio and will continue northeast this afternoon. the warning area should remain to the northwest of the dry-slot in the favorable region for the heavier snowfall. visibilities will drop to 1/2 mile for much of the afternoon...occasionally drop to 1/4 mile. further to the south we see temperatures starting to warm both aloft and at the surface and columbus has been reporting rain since about 10 am. the temperature is now up to 35 degrees. the surface low is forecast to track to central ohio by 00z and then continue northeast to northwest pennsylvania. this should effectively pull the warm air north to roughly a cak-yng line...but we could see precip type try to mix with sleet or change over even as far north as cle as the dry-slot pulls north. could see the southern counties change over to just rain for a period of time. did not include any freezing rain in the forecast as the change over upstream has been occurring concurrently with warming at the surface. did lower forecast snowfall in the southern counties with only an additional 1 to 3 expected...with a storm total in the 2-4 inch range. precipitation will change back over to snow as the event comes to an end. previous discussion... the latest models continue to keep things on track with a low lifting ne into se oh early tonight then weakening as a new low deepens along the mid atlantic coast. short term models indicate somewhat of a lull in snow intensity thru 10 or 11 am then things should pick up again. still looks like about 2 to 4 inches of accumulation today...possibly 3 to 5 in some places where some heavier banding takes place. including early tonight...should see a total of 5 to 7 inches on average. still would prefer to keep an advisory going for this event as the snow should be light most of the time and overall totals not expected to get to the 8 inches or more criteria for the 24 hour period to warrant a warning. also a little sleet could mix into the snow at times which would lead to lesser accumulation totals. due to the cloud and snow prefer to only allow high temps to rise around the freezing point at most for all but the far se co's where warm advection a little better so could see temps get to 33 or 34 there. && short term /6 pm this evening through monday night/... the dynamics and deeper moisture shift east tonight as a new low develop near the nj coast. expect snow to taper to flurries west to east during the first half of the night leaving just light accumulating snow left in the east for the second half of the night with maybe up to another inch possible. will extend ending of advisories a little more into early tonight in the west and further into the night in the east. colder temps will lead to improving lake effect conditions sun into sun night but lack of decent moisture above 850 mb should mean accumulations stay light with maybe an inch or two for favored areas sun and again sun night. the models indicate a weak warm advection pattern setting up mon and mon night. upper energy dropping se into the lakes in combination with the warm advection should provide lift to create the forcing for some light snow to affect the area. the better threat should be closer to leri where overall conditions will remain more favorable. think accumulation will run an inch or less mon and again mon night although some higher terrain locations in the snowbelt could see a little more. && long term /tuesday through friday/... a cold front will move through on tuesday causing some snow showers with the best chance in the snow belt. all parts of the forecast area will have a chance of snow showers as the upper trough moves through. tuesday night into wednesday the snow belt will have snow showers with a west to northwest flow. moisture is marginal...an advisory may or may not be needed. snow showers will be ending quickly wednesday night as the high over the ohio valley moves east and the flow becomes southwest. thursday will be dry and warming in a strong southwest flow. some rain showers will developing during the night. temperatures should be rising or steady during the night. a pretty good chance of rain showers on friday ahead of the front with mild temperatures. && aviation /18z saturday through wednesday/... low pressure has now reached the middle ohio river valley to the southwest of cincinnati. the low will continue to track to the northeast near the ohio river valley. all locations will be ifr for the first 6 hours of the taf. ceilings may fluctuate into mvfr levels but believe visibilities will remain under 2 miles with the snowfall. the heaviest swath of snow will likely move across nw ohio into early evening. however the remainder of the area will still get light snow all afternoon. easterly winds will continue into the evening at 10 knots or less. of concern late in the afternoon into the early evening is the amount of rain that can move into the southern areas. the best chances for this to occur will be kcak and kyng. it appears temperatures will warm just enough to avoid any freezing rain. the rain will change back to snow at all locations by 03z. the snow will begin to taper off after 04z across nw ohio...around 05z central areas...and 09z across the east. at this point winds will have shifted around to the northwest. some light lake enhanced snowfall may then occur across ne ohio in nw pa. outlook...frequent non vfr especially across ne oh/nw pa. && marine... another very active period for the lake. east winds are picking up on the lake today with the low moving through the ohio valley and the high to the north. winds and or waves will just meet small craft advisory criteria on much of the nearshore. the winds will switch from east to north or northeast tonight. it is possible that the winds and waves could briefly drop below small craft advisory criteria...it will be brief so will keep the small craft advisory going. some ice cover near the islands may lower the waves down a little. on sunday with high pressure starting to build toward the ohio valley and low pressure over the central lakes a small craft advisory will continue to be needed. the threat for small craft advisory conditions will last into sunday night. a break from the small craft advisory is expected on monday with a southwest flow...however...waves could still be high on the east end. a cold front moves through on tuesday and in its wake...winds and waves will meet small craft advisory criteria over much of the lake. a break from the small craft advisory late wednesday night into thursday. however...late on thursday the southwest flow ahead of a front that will move through late friday will be increasing. the winds aloft will be very strong so eventually some of those winds will make it to the lake so a small craft advisory will likely be needed thursday evening into friday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for ohz010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089. winter storm warning until 8 pm est this evening for ohz003- 006>008-017-018. winter weather advisory until 8 pm est this evening for ohz009- 019-027>030-036-037-047. pa...winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for paz001>003. marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est monday for lez142>149. && $$ synopsis...adams near term...adams/kec short term...adams long term...kieltyka aviation...mullen marine...kieltyka