Possible Jan 1, 2014 snowstorm late sun night, dec 29, 2013 afd: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IWX&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013 COLD LONG TERM EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW AND EYE ON POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WEDS INTO THURS. BRIEF BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR START OF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUES AFTN AS UPPER LVL TROF MOVES THRU. BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH BUT MAY SKIRT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED NEAR IN/MI BORDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS (DUSTING TO INCH) POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF US 6 WITH THIS WAVE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREA WEDS INTO THURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRONOUNCED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE OF ROCKIES WEDS AND EJECTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY BY THU. GENERAL TRACK OF SFC LOW FROM SO MO WEDS AFTN TO CENTRAL IN WEDS NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL OH BY THU AM. WITH 850MB LOW CLOSING OFF AND MOVING RIGHT ACROSS AREA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD PUT DEFORMATION ZONE OVER CWA AND IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW. 12Z MODEL SUITE STILL DIFFERS A BIT ON TIMING WITH GFS FASTEST...GEM IN THE MIDDLE...AND ECMWF REMAINING ON SLOWER BUT STRONGER SIDE OF ENVELOPE. HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARD THIS SLOWER COLDER SOLUTION WITH CONFIDENCE GROWING IN PROBABILITY OF ACCUM SNOW ESP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC ACCUMS BUT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 3-6 INCHES BASED OFF CURRENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS/QPF ACCORDINGLY ESP ACROSS NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH FOR START OF 2014. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM IN NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN BRIEFLY FOR END OF THE WEEK/START OF WEEKEND. MODEL DISCREPANCIES GROW AGAIN BY END OF PERIOD BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM BY SUNDAY INTO START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PLUNGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF EACH WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT MIDWEEK SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID TEENS TO LOW 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THRU THE WEEK. BRIEF MODERATION POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 BUT THIS MAY HINGE ON DEPTH OF SNOWPACK. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1150 PM EST SUN DEC 29 201 ##LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CREATE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THESE SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06-12Z. GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE BETTER MOISTURE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 13 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA GIVEN THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON TUESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW PROVIDING ANOTHER COOL QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/wx.html#/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1147 pm est sun dec 29 2013 near term /until 6 am monday morning/... dynamics slowly supporting the dendritic growth zone over the region which has in some locations reverted back from snow over to freezing drizzle. looking at ir satellite temperature estimates in the clouds over the region it looks that the freezing drizzle may linger for a few more hours. an advisory has been issued to cover the threat raised by any addition of freezing ice accumulation. fortunately the moisture is limited and the potential accumulation is limited to a light glazing on exposed surfaces. could see a transition over to snow and back to freezing drizzle over the next couple hours. the main hazard areas are in the east and in higher terrain regions. once the final transition to snow occurs the snowbelt region could still see around a half to an inch accumulation. the temperatures meanwhile continue to fall allowing for a quicker freeze/icing on any exposed wet surfaces from the earlier rain. temperatures by daybreak will be in the teens and winds will support wind chills in the single digits. short term /6 am monday morning through wednesday night/... monday 12z 850mb temps will already be down to -14-16c as the cold air deepens across the region. am expecting a little lake effect snow to occur on monday however by afternoon...winds should be backing as another low develops across the central lakes. will have around an inch for the snow belt for the day. monday night brought chance pops back the region as moisture increases as a short wave moves across the lake and deepens the surface low. tuesday am expecting the lake effect to increase with better low level moisture across the area and winds veer to onshore again. tuesday night and wednesday more overrunning moisture moves in from the west. will have chance pops for much of the area again. && hr. for the above afds, cle says nothing about a possible storm. h2. mon, dec 30 area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 715 am est mon dec 30 2013 short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... high pressure will briefly move across the lake tonight as low pressure moves into the central great lakes. any lake effect snow should shift up the lakeshore toward buffalo or completely end. this clipper will not have much moisture to lift on tuesday so snowfall will be light. the air will be slightly colder in the wake of this low tuesday night with the expectation that lake effect snow will develop. at this point it appears that 3 to 5 inches will be possible tuesday afternoon into tuesday night. later shifts will need to consider the potential for a lake effect snow advisory. we will then have another brief lull between storm systems late tuesday night into early wednesday. we will then monitor the location of a warm front that will attempt to lift into southern ohio by early thursday morning. a much stronger storm system will then track along this warm front into ohio with a heavy swath of snow possible late wednesday night into thursday. will mention this in the hwo with the possibility of significant snowfall for much of the region. h2. dec 31 urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 435 am est tue dec 31 2013 .a clipper storm system will cross the area today. as the colder air spills across lake erie this afternoon lake effect snow will develop. the heaviest snowfall will occur over northwest pennsylvania around erie. wednesday into thursday...low pressure will move out of the central plains across the ohio valley to the east coast. snowfall amounts will depend on the exact track of the low but currently the heaviest snow may occur across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania where 6 to 10 inches of snow may occur. as the low passes it will allow for some additional accumulations from lake effect snow that could persist into friday morning. ohz003-006>010-017>019-311745- /o.ext.kcle.ws.a.0005.140101t1200z-140102t1500z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk 435 am est tue dec 31 2013 ...winter storm watch now in effect from wednesday morning through thursday morning... * accumulations...2 to 3 inches of snowfall may occur on new years day. the heavier snow will arrive wednesday night with another 2 to 4 inches possible. by thursday as the snow begins to taper off an additional 1 to 2 inches may occur. this would produce a storm total of 5 to 9 inches with locally higher possible. * timing...snowfall will develop over the region on wednesday and continue into at least thursday morning. the snow will then taper off through thursday afternoon. * winds...westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common new years day but will increase out of a northerly direction at 15 to 20 mph wednesday night then continuing into thursday. * impacts...travel will be impacted tuesday through wednesday night. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you are in the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or the local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings. hr. area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 950 am est tue dec 31 2013 short term /wednesday through thursday night/... a storm system from the southern plains will move near the ohio river valley wednesday night into thursday. snowfall will spread into the area on wednesday and continue to expand in coverage and intensity into wednesday night. there is still a bit of uncertainty with the track and timing of the low but all models indicate that the heavier swath of snow will be across north ohio into nw pa. we have modified the area of the winter storm watch slightly in an attempt to give better timing of the storm system across the region. as mentioned above the heavier snow will spread into the region wednesday night and continue into thursday. as winds become northerly wednesday night into thursday there will likely be some enhancement of the snowfall as moisture is pulled off of lake erie. this could provide for higher snowfall amounts for all locations from the central highlands northeastward across ne ohio. as the storm exits on thursday the lake effect snow will likely focus from ashtabula county westward to lorain and ashland counties. by the time the storm ends many locations will likely receive 6 to 10 inches...locally higher where the best lake enhanced snowfall occurs. hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 1205 pm est tue dec 31 2013 .cold air spilling across lake erie will cause lake effect snow to occur across the area. the heaviest snowfall will occur over northwest pennsylvania around erie although additional bands will occur in northeast ohio. wednesday into thursday...low pressure will move out of the central plains across the ohio valley to the east coast. snowfall amounts will depend on the exact track of the low but currently the heaviest snow may occur across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania where 6 to 10 inches of snow may occur. as the low passes it will allow for some additional accumulations from lake effect snow that could persist into friday morning. ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-010115- /o.con.kcle.ws.a.0005.140101t1200z-140102t1500z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland 1205 pm est tue dec 31 2013 ...winter storm watch remains in effect from wednesday morning through thursday morning... * accumulations...2 to 3 inches of snowfall may occur on new years day. the heavier snow will arrive wednesday night with another 2 to 4 inches possible. by thursday as the snow begins to taper off an additional 1 to 2 inches may occur. this would produce a storm total of 5 to 9 inches with locally higher possible. * timing...snowfall will develop over the region on wednesday and continue into at least thursday morning. the snow will then taper off through thursday afternoon. * winds...westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common new years day but will increase out of a northerly direction at 15 to 20 mph wednesday night then continuing into thursday. * impacts...travel will be impacted today through wednesday night. hr. At TT: http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/165696#168003 q. No major tweaks to the forecast. Winter Wx Adv for the counties in the western Toledo metro area, Winter storm watch continues Central and East. Overnight and morning models came in a bit higher on snow amounts. GEM: 6-8" 06Z GFS: 10-12" 12Z GFS: 12-15" WRF (which only goes 48 hours out and is a 10:1 ratio): 2-5" 06Z NAM: 5-7" 12Z NAM: 7 to 10" Euro: 6-10" Snow ratios are going to be closer to 15:1 or 20:1 in most cases, so the WRF amounts would need to be adjusted up accordingly. So the average across these models: 6-9" of snow. That seems like a safe be but would not rule out someone getting up to 12" of powder based on the higher ratios with this system. ! posted by JustaSooner on Dec 31, 2013 at 12:48:14 pm # q.. hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 418 pm est tue dec 31 2013 .lake effect snow will continue across northern ashtabula county into the night before tapering off. wednesday low pressure will move east out of the central plains and move across the ohio valley wednesday night and early thursday. the system will spread snow across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania with light snow starting overnight. the snow could shift north of much of the region wednesday afternoon before dropping back south across the area wednesday night and thursday. in addition...winds will become gusty from the north and northeast causing blowing and drifting. ohz003-006>010-017>019-010530- /o.upg.kcle.ws.a.0005.140101t1200z-140102t1500z/ /o.new.kcle.ww.y.0019.140101t0500z-140102t2100z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk 418 pm est tue dec 31 2013 ...winter weather advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 4 pm est thursday... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter weather advisory for snow...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 4 pm est thursday. the winter storm watch is no longer in effect. * accumulations...1 to 2 inches overnight and an additional 1 to 3 inches wednesday. wednesday night and thursday another 4 to 6 inches are possible. * timing...snow will develop tonight and continue much of wednesday through thursday. * winds...northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph will occur wednesday night and thursday. * impacts...travel will be impacted tonight through thursday. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you are in the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or the local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings. a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of winter weather conditions such as light snow, blowing snow, sleet, freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be significant, the word advisory implies that severe winter weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 418 pm est tue dec 31 2013 ohz003-006>010-017>019-012130- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- 418 pm est tue dec 31 2013 ...winter weather advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 4 pm est thursday... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...this afternoon and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter weather advisory. .days two through seven...wednesday through monday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter weather advisory. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana 315 pm est tue dec 31 2013 synopsis... issued at 1249 pm est tue dec 31 2013 a frontal boundary will develop over the region by tonight...generating periods of light to moderate snowfall into wednesday. accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected along and north of us-30 during this time. additional snow is expected wednesday night into thursday as a low pressure system tracks through the ohio valley. otherwise...cold conditions will persist through friday. && short term...(this evening through wednesday) issued at 315 pm est tue dec 31 2013 ..first round of accumulating snow arriving quickly... some changes to event preparing to unfold tonight into wednesday morning mainly in higher details on timing/amounts. light snow was rapidly overspreading northern illinois with vsbys already down to 2 miles or less at ohare airport. this will quickly advance east and reach nw parts of the advisory area in the 21 to 00z window as strengthening fgen forcing occurs across mainly the northern half of the area. models continue to focus main band of snowfall along and either side of the i80/90 toll road with the southern extent of accumulating snowfall near a knox to warsaw to paulding ohio line. in general...running with snow ratios in the 15:1 range...but cold temps and nice alignment of omega and dgz later this evening into overnight hours could yield pockets of 20:1. ratios of 15:1 with a quarter or more of qpf will easily yield 2 to 5 inches of snowfall through wednesday morning. road conditions will quickly deteriorate this evening for those preparing to celebrate the new year and slippery conditions with pockets of low visibility will create further hazards overnight. no changes to headlines at this point. if higher ratios do occur...then changes could be needed to current advisory. one positive note is winds will not be overly strong...generally 5 to 15 mph range...which will help limit blowing of the snow but still be sufficient to cause drifting in outlying areas. brunt of omega will be shifting into ne parts of the region weds morning. this will allow snowfall to lessen for a period across the advisory area. in addition...arrival of slightly warmer air will lower ratios to the range of climo (13:1). have nudged pops down slightly but still held in categorical range with transition to next system quickly occurring by afternoon. && long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) issued at 315 pm est tue dec 31 2013 stronger large scale ascent associated with consolidated central conus upper trough will overspread pre-existing low/mid level baroclinic zone wed aftn-night. this will act to enhance the fgen circulation locally through deformation with organizing band of light/moderate snow expected to slowly sink sewd with time wed night into thu am. moisture/ascent on 280/285k isentropic surfaces still enough to support decent snow accums with mixing ratios increasing to btw 2.5-3.0 g/kg. however...models still disagree to some extent on handling of smaller scale waves embedded within trough axis. gfs/ecmwf continues to be more focused on a weaker/farther south solution with primary focus on southern pv anomaly digging into the tn valley...while the bulk of remaining guidance is farther north with sfc reflection and core of lift per 5-3h q-vector progs. hard to pinpoint how this will play out but expecting additional accums/impacts regardless. will issue an outlook (sps) across southern counties for potential light/moderate snow accums (2-5") and extend the advisory across the northern half of the fa into wed aftn/eve where total snow accumulations btw tonight and thu morning may end up in the 6-10 inch range. long duration and expected lull tomorrow favors an advisory instead of a warning for now. thursday into friday will feature a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air in wake of system. northerly trajectories with 850 mb temps plummeting to near -18c will bring about the concern for a lake effect single band into northwest indiana later thu aftn-thu night. bulk of guidance continues to favor areas just west of the local area / porter-lake counties in indiana / for greatest impacts but do expect band to eventually pivot into our far northwestern counties at some point with accumulations possible. brief moderating trend...tempered a bit by expected snow cover...is anticipated on saturday as flow backs southwesterly in advance of a cold front. reassertion of -epo/northeast pacific positive height anomalies this weekend will allow next shot of very cold air (potentially coldest of the season so far) to filter into the region behind this cold front sunday into early next week as piece of polar vortex displaces south toward ontario/quebec - maybe as far south of the northern great lakes. something to watch in this transition will be a potential winter storm in the sunday- monday timeframe with frontal wave as shortwave energy rounds base of trough and attempts to phase with energy pivoting around polar vortex. && hr. afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 350 pm est tue dec 31 2013 short term...through tonight the confluent flow and subsidence aloft this morning was only strong enough to briefly disrupt the lake effect snow band over the southern cwa. the strengthening sw flow was able to tighten the convergence zone once again producing a band of light snow across wayne and washtenaw counties. this band has been quite progressive thus accumulations will be held to under a half inch. the band is also tracking into a region of lower dewpoints helping to weaken it. arctic airmass will hold over the state into the overnight as the front is now lifting into the ohio valley. satellite loops show mid level clouds associated with the front streaming into the chicago area which will spread into se mi this evening. current radar reflectivity over northern illinois on the regional radar mosaic lines up well with the 850 mb front which will reach southern lower mi between 03z and 06z. as the front aligns west to east across the ohio valley...isentropic ascent along the 295k surface will increase over southern mi. looking at cross sections...models indicate an enhance plume of moisture...specific humidities of 2 g/kg...aligned with the best frontal forcing between 700-800mb nosing across the mi/oh border. a weak theta e gradient will be set up over the area by midnight but a better surge enters after 06z. northern stream jet max that dove down trough mi this afternoon will move east enough so that we start to get into the right entrance region toward morning which will lend some upper level support to the start of the event. with the very dry arctic airmass in place...dewpoints single digits across the area...how fast the column get moistened is in question. with a limited duration expected overnight kept the accumulations to around an inch south of about i696. with the north staying clear of most of the snowfall...look for temps to drop overnight into the low single digits. with thicker clouds and snowfall across the south temps should stay in the low teens. && long term... quasi-zonal wnw flow over the great lakes will strengthen as the upper height gradient tightens in response to approaching low amplitude pacific energy. the ongoing fgen response over the upper ms valley this aftn will extend east with time as this energy zips along allowing the low-level response expected to persist in a relatively steady-state through wednesday morning. during this time, modest isentropic ascent will take place along the low-level frontal boundary while an organized fgen circulation ramps up beneath the strengthening right entrance of the upper jet. moderate static stability should keep vertical motions associated with the fgen response somewhat in check, which is important for allowing some semblance of moisture transport to continue up the frontal slope and should help prevent a very sharp cutoff to the accumulating snowfall on the northern edge. the 12z guidance are all in generally good agreement regarding the important features the pattern with the main difference of note being the actual qpf output. curiously, both the nam and nmm are producing virtually identical and highly improbable qpf totals on the order of 2x that of ecmwf/gfs/arw, a sign that the similar microphysics used in both models may be to blame as they oversimulate the response to tomorrow's environment. have therefore leaned heavily toward the aforementioned trio of nwp with an emphasis on the higher resolution arw. the net result is a more narrow swath of appreciable accumulation across the central/southern cwa than would be suggested by the nam/nmm. while moderate snowfall will be ongoing south of 8 mile road in response to the aforementioned developing fgen response on wed morning, current data suggest that the bulk of accumulating snowfall - save for some bleed-over into southern livingston/oakland/macomb counties - will get underway mainly after 21z when upper forcing ramps up and the baroclinic zone begins to pivot in cyclonic fashion ahead of an approaching shortwave. snow ratios of 14:1 to 16:1 are reasonable given the cold thermal profile and dgz in the neighborhood of 300mb deep across central portions of the cwa. further south, a potentially shallower dgz over the southern two tiers of counties will be offset by lower elevation forcing along the frontal slope. here, organized vertical motion below and within the dgz should force a good degree of supersaturation and ultimately result in a good environment for dendrite formation. it is within this area that 4 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected and for which a winter weather advisory has been issued. amounts will taper to 2-4" within the next tier of counties and to 2" or less along the i-69 corridor. lake effect will also become a concern by wednesday afternoon as a favorable northeasterly fetch develops across lake huron and 0-1k theta-e lapse rates fall to moderate values around -3k/km. although it appears that the nam is oversimulating the contribution of lake enhancement to the overall low-level moisture field tomorrow, especially north of i-69, it does appear that minor accumulations will be possible across the thumb into tomorrow night. of greater concern will be thursday into thursday night when colder air and a more favorable northerly fetch will result in considerably more overlake instability and at least the potential for significant lake effect snow accumulation. extended forecast through the first weekend of the new year into the beginning of next week will see temperatures in the upper 20s before taking a plunge yet again. main story will be the temperatures as another arctic blast looks to overtake the area early next week along with continued potential for snow showers. upper level ridge will shift east on saturday...with lows dropping into the single digits saturday morning. an upper level trough then starts to dig through the midwest later in the weekend which will help to moderate temps...although readings will still remain below normal before another reinforcing shot of even colder arctic air takes over. && hr. http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2013/12/31/6-8-inches-of-snow-expected-to-blanket-Toledo-area.html #weather