Possible Jan 1, 2014 snowstorm late sun night, dec 29, 2013 afd: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IWX&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013 COLD LONG TERM EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW AND EYE ON POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WEDS INTO THURS. BRIEF BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR START OF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUES AFTN AS UPPER LVL TROF MOVES THRU. BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH BUT MAY SKIRT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED NEAR IN/MI BORDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS (DUSTING TO INCH) POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF US 6 WITH THIS WAVE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREA WEDS INTO THURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PRONOUNCED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE OF ROCKIES WEDS AND EJECTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY BY THU. GENERAL TRACK OF SFC LOW FROM SO MO WEDS AFTN TO CENTRAL IN WEDS NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL OH BY THU AM. WITH 850MB LOW CLOSING OFF AND MOVING RIGHT ACROSS AREA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD PUT DEFORMATION ZONE OVER CWA AND IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW. 12Z MODEL SUITE STILL DIFFERS A BIT ON TIMING WITH GFS FASTEST...GEM IN THE MIDDLE...AND ECMWF REMAINING ON SLOWER BUT STRONGER SIDE OF ENVELOPE. HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE TOWARD THIS SLOWER COLDER SOLUTION WITH CONFIDENCE GROWING IN PROBABILITY OF ACCUM SNOW ESP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC ACCUMS BUT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 3-6 INCHES BASED OFF CURRENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS/QPF ACCORDINGLY ESP ACROSS NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH FOR START OF 2014. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM IN NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN BRIEFLY FOR END OF THE WEEK/START OF WEEKEND. MODEL DISCREPANCIES GROW AGAIN BY END OF PERIOD BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM BY SUNDAY INTO START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PLUNGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF EACH WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT MIDWEEK SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID TEENS TO LOW 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THRU THE WEEK. BRIEF MODERATION POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 BUT THIS MAY HINGE ON DEPTH OF SNOWPACK. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1150 PM EST SUN DEC 29 201 ##LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CREATE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THESE SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06-12Z. GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE BETTER MOISTURE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 13 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA GIVEN THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON TUESDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW PROVIDING ANOTHER COOL QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT...HOWEVER IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/wx.html#/weather/html/forecast-discussion.html afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1147 pm est sun dec 29 2013 near term /until 6 am monday morning/... dynamics slowly supporting the dendritic growth zone over the region which has in some locations reverted back from snow over to freezing drizzle. looking at ir satellite temperature estimates in the clouds over the region it looks that the freezing drizzle may linger for a few more hours. an advisory has been issued to cover the threat raised by any addition of freezing ice accumulation. fortunately the moisture is limited and the potential accumulation is limited to a light glazing on exposed surfaces. could see a transition over to snow and back to freezing drizzle over the next couple hours. the main hazard areas are in the east and in higher terrain regions. once the final transition to snow occurs the snowbelt region could still see around a half to an inch accumulation. the temperatures meanwhile continue to fall allowing for a quicker freeze/icing on any exposed wet surfaces from the earlier rain. temperatures by daybreak will be in the teens and winds will support wind chills in the single digits. short term /6 am monday morning through wednesday night/... monday 12z 850mb temps will already be down to -14-16c as the cold air deepens across the region. am expecting a little lake effect snow to occur on monday however by afternoon...winds should be backing as another low develops across the central lakes. will have around an inch for the snow belt for the day. monday night brought chance pops back the region as moisture increases as a short wave moves across the lake and deepens the surface low. tuesday am expecting the lake effect to increase with better low level moisture across the area and winds veer to onshore again. tuesday night and wednesday more overrunning moisture moves in from the west. will have chance pops for much of the area again. && hr. for the above afds, cle says nothing about a possible storm. h2. mon, dec 30 area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 715 am est mon dec 30 2013 short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... high pressure will briefly move across the lake tonight as low pressure moves into the central great lakes. any lake effect snow should shift up the lakeshore toward buffalo or completely end. this clipper will not have much moisture to lift on tuesday so snowfall will be light. the air will be slightly colder in the wake of this low tuesday night with the expectation that lake effect snow will develop. at this point it appears that 3 to 5 inches will be possible tuesday afternoon into tuesday night. later shifts will need to consider the potential for a lake effect snow advisory. we will then have another brief lull between storm systems late tuesday night into early wednesday. we will then monitor the location of a warm front that will attempt to lift into southern ohio by early thursday morning. a much stronger storm system will then track along this warm front into ohio with a heavy swath of snow possible late wednesday night into thursday. will mention this in the hwo with the possibility of significant snowfall for much of the region. h2. dec 31 urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 435 am est tue dec 31 2013 .a clipper storm system will cross the area today. as the colder air spills across lake erie this afternoon lake effect snow will develop. the heaviest snowfall will occur over northwest pennsylvania around erie. wednesday into thursday...low pressure will move out of the central plains across the ohio valley to the east coast. snowfall amounts will depend on the exact track of the low but currently the heaviest snow may occur across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania where 6 to 10 inches of snow may occur. as the low passes it will allow for some additional accumulations from lake effect snow that could persist into friday morning. ohz003-006>010-017>019-311745- /o.ext.kcle.ws.a.0005.140101t1200z-140102t1500z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk 435 am est tue dec 31 2013 ...winter storm watch now in effect from wednesday morning through thursday morning... * accumulations...2 to 3 inches of snowfall may occur on new years day. the heavier snow will arrive wednesday night with another 2 to 4 inches possible. by thursday as the snow begins to taper off an additional 1 to 2 inches may occur. this would produce a storm total of 5 to 9 inches with locally higher possible. * timing...snowfall will develop over the region on wednesday and continue into at least thursday morning. the snow will then taper off through thursday afternoon. * winds...westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common new years day but will increase out of a northerly direction at 15 to 20 mph wednesday night then continuing into thursday. * impacts...travel will be impacted tuesday through wednesday night. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you are in the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or the local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings. hr. area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 950 am est tue dec 31 2013 short term /wednesday through thursday night/... a storm system from the southern plains will move near the ohio river valley wednesday night into thursday. snowfall will spread into the area on wednesday and continue to expand in coverage and intensity into wednesday night. there is still a bit of uncertainty with the track and timing of the low but all models indicate that the heavier swath of snow will be across north ohio into nw pa. we have modified the area of the winter storm watch slightly in an attempt to give better timing of the storm system across the region. as mentioned above the heavier snow will spread into the region wednesday night and continue into thursday. as winds become northerly wednesday night into thursday there will likely be some enhancement of the snowfall as moisture is pulled off of lake erie. this could provide for higher snowfall amounts for all locations from the central highlands northeastward across ne ohio. as the storm exits on thursday the lake effect snow will likely focus from ashtabula county westward to lorain and ashland counties. by the time the storm ends many locations will likely receive 6 to 10 inches...locally higher where the best lake enhanced snowfall occurs. hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 1205 pm est tue dec 31 2013 .cold air spilling across lake erie will cause lake effect snow to occur across the area. the heaviest snowfall will occur over northwest pennsylvania around erie although additional bands will occur in northeast ohio. wednesday into thursday...low pressure will move out of the central plains across the ohio valley to the east coast. snowfall amounts will depend on the exact track of the low but currently the heaviest snow may occur across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania where 6 to 10 inches of snow may occur. as the low passes it will allow for some additional accumulations from lake effect snow that could persist into friday morning. ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-010115- /o.con.kcle.ws.a.0005.140101t1200z-140102t1500z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland 1205 pm est tue dec 31 2013 ...winter storm watch remains in effect from wednesday morning through thursday morning... * accumulations...2 to 3 inches of snowfall may occur on new years day. the heavier snow will arrive wednesday night with another 2 to 4 inches possible. by thursday as the snow begins to taper off an additional 1 to 2 inches may occur. this would produce a storm total of 5 to 9 inches with locally higher possible. * timing...snowfall will develop over the region on wednesday and continue into at least thursday morning. the snow will then taper off through thursday afternoon. * winds...westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common new years day but will increase out of a northerly direction at 15 to 20 mph wednesday night then continuing into thursday. * impacts...travel will be impacted today through wednesday night. #weather