early jan 2014 weather forecast morning jan 1 2014 info Today at 7:00 a.m., I measured 2.25 inches of new snow that accumulated since it began last evening between 9:00 and 10:00 p.m. From this morning's "winter weather advisory":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/winter-weather-advisory.html statement for our area: bq. accumulations...2 to 4 inches of [additional] snow is possible today. snowfall will become heavier tonight with another 4 to 6 inches possible by thursday night. bq. in addition...winds will shift to the north/northeast and increase in intensity on thursday. this will cause blowing and drifting snow...along with decreased visibility. bq. north to northeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. br. A solid mid-winter weather pattern is setting up for the near-term, anyway. Forecast calls for some below zero temps and possibly another snowstorm on Sunday and Monday, followed by even "cooler" air early next week, which could create a significant lake effect snow event in the northeast Ohio snowbelt. Forecast: bq.. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2. Wind chill values as low as -17. North wind 10 to 16 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 12. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 4. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Sunday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1. *Tuesday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 8.* br. p. Jan 1, 2014 Cle NWS morning statements: bq. the potential exists for another major winter storm to affect the local area sunday through tuesday. an arctic cold front with the coldest air in quite some time is expected to move east across the area on sunday while low pressure moves northeast along the front. the storm will bring with it snow to the area. the arctic air mass along with gusty winds could also bring some dangerously cold wind chills to the area as well. bq. early next week some of the strongest cold air is forecast to move into the region by all of the long range models. as upper level ridge moves east of the area by sunday...large or should i say massive polar low slides south toward eastern canada and the united states by monday. bq.. models are starting to come into agreement with the development of a low pressure system that will move northeast along the cold front sunday at the surface. the storm system is expected to intensify as it moves into the region. some of the biggest storms for this area originate out of the gulf coast region when an extreme cold air out break takes place. as arctic air spills into the region sunday night into monday...conditions could possibly become really nasty. *the front and low pressure system on sunday could have the potential to bring some significant snow and dangerously cold wind chills to the entire forecast area.* added to that will be gusty winds with the storm system producing blowing and drifting snow. then...as low pressure moves east with the arctic front...we are not done yet. the synoptic snow will transition into a lake effect snow event. the potential exists with lake temperatures in the lower 30s and lake wide open for some intense lake effect snow bands. hr. I like "using":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecastio.html data provided by "Forecast.io":https://developer.forecast.io who also maintains the "Dark Sky":http://darkskyapp.com/ iOS app. * http://forecast.io/lines - displays forecasts from the various data sources used by Forecast.io. * http://forecast.io/raw - Forecast.io raw data sources. * "Forecast.io 7-day forecast for Toledo":http://forecast.io/#/f/41.6656,-83.5753 If you view "Forecast.io Lines":http://forecast.io/lines/ for Tuesday, January 7, Forecast.io only shows two models predicting temps that far in advance: GFS (Global Forecast System) and CMC (Canadian Meteorological Center). And those two models show a wild range of morning low temp predictions for Toledo for Tue, Jan 7: * cmc: +3 * gfs: -19 For Tue, Jan 7, Forecast.io predicts a morning low temp of -10, and the National Weather Service predicts -2. !http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5515/11690731494_3ce1ddc1b8_z.jpg! br. For Friday morning, January 3, here are Toledo's morning low predictions: * gfs: 0 * Cleveland NWS: -2 * nam: -5 * Forecast.io: -6 * cmc: -6 * sref: -6 hr. fxus61 kcle 020534 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1234 am est thu jan 2 2014 synopsis... low pressure over the central plains will cross the ohio valley on thursday and redevelop along the east coast thursday night...then move out to sea. arctic high pressure from the northern plains will slide across the ohio valley and lower great lakes on friday. the high will be east of the area on saturday and temperatures will moderate a little. the next arctic cold front is due on sunday. a wave of low pressure my develop on the front. even colder arctic high pressure is expected the first half of next week. && near term /through today/... light snow continues to slowly progress to the east. the current area of snow matches the models fairly well and is consistent with the current forecast. snow should spread over all sections of the forecast area after midnight. no major adjustments to this forecast. i will tweak temperatures and dewpoints to reflect the current trends but the remainder of the forecast will remain intact. previous discussion... tough forecast to categorize. erie pa has already had close to 5 inches of snow since midnight but they will have a lull through this evening. snow will increase overnight from northwest to southeast as the relatively weak panhandle hook tracks northeast for part two of the event. we already obviously have a nice baroclinic zone in place which will tighten as cold advection increases on the north and west side of the surface low with the arctic high in place. the trough aloft is still well to the west and the best jet dynamics are not progged to be over head until thursday. the jet dynamics are progged to increase by thursday night but that will primarily affect the coastal redevelopment. no gulf inflow of moisture into the storm. we will have to make all of the snow from dynamic and thermodynamic forcing/upward motion. the snow will remain relatively fluffy although the flakes may be small much of the time. the northeast wind will pick up by thursday morning and blowing and drifting will start to become an issue...especially across northwest ohio. i am about 50-50 on upgrading to a winter storm warning for the lakeshore counties from lorain county across the snowbelt into nw pa. the deciding factor at this point is that i think the snowfall rates will not become very high...probably staying less than a half an inch an hour. would rather see a period of 1/2 to 1 inch an hour snowfall rates for a while to have a bigger impact. will stick with the winter weather advisory but it will be high end at a number of locations as far as snow totals. will not issue wind chill advisories until the winter weather advisories expire...the winter weather advisories also include low wind chill. temperatures will not drop off much tonight...then steady or slowly falling on thursday. && short term /tonight through friday night/... the snow will pull out from west to east thursday afternoon/evening and evolve into a lake effect event. the wind will be northerly for a while thursday night so the secondary snow belt...southern cuyahoga county into medina and summit counties...will continue to see snow showers. the remainder of the snowbelt will also see snow showers. the arctic air will not hold much moisture and the snow showers will not amount to anything heavy...but the snow showers will probably be persistent. it will clear across northwest ohio. with fresh snow cover...low temps will drop below zero where there is clearing. wind chill advisories will be needed...at least the first half of thursday night until the wind diminishes. the fluffy snow will settle nicely on friday. the lake effect snow showers will gradually end as high pressure moves overhead. there should be a plenty of sunshine for northwest ohio. highs barely getting out of the single digits. used the raw boundary layer model temps in the forecast...usually works better than mos guidance during an arctic outbreak. && long term /saturday through wednesday/... after a chilly end to the work week...the roller coast ride continues. high pressure will be across the east coast with southerly flow for the ohio valley. area gets a surge of warmer air saturday and will bring temperatures up around freezing. cold front from the upper midwest with the first blast of cold air crosses the area early on sunday. a wave of low pressure will develop along the front...question is when. ecmwf is strongest with the low development across eastern oh and keeps the cold air held back. tend to side with the colder solution of the gfs/ensgfs and allow that cold front to cross the area fully sunday. unfortunately with so much uncertainty and model high temperatures ranging from the teens to the lower 30s. have settled around 30 with an early high. snow most likely with this system...especially with the colder solution we are going with. likely a shovel-able snow. the next big weather impact will come with temperatures early next work/school week. good agreement amongst the models with the degree of cold air that will spread across the region. this will be some of the coldest air we have seen in a few years. some single digit lows for sunday night. monday night and tuesday night will be at or below zero for lows. the last time cleveland hopkins airport had a low temperature below zero was just shy of 3 years ago. added concern with these temperatures will be the wind. there will be enough to make it feel even colder. at this point for early next week...everyday sensible weather will be tough to pinpoint. upper trough lingers across the great lakes with minor disturbances that are too hard to time this far out. && aviation /06z thursday through monday/... a recent break in the ceilings has quickly deteriorated as we can expected mvfr ceiling for most areas this evening...which will drop to ifr as the snow spreads east over the next 3 to 6 hours. the best forcing for snow will be after daybreak...which will coincide with an increase in winds. wind speeds near the lakeshore will be gusting near 30 mph...closer to 20 mph inland. the wind combined with the light snow cover and ongoing snow showers will likely lead to visibilites under a mile for the better part of thursday. the low is expected to pull away thursday evening...however blowing snow will continue to reduce visibilities. as the winds shift to the north by evening some lake huron snow bands could develop and impact cle...but too difficult to pin point the lake effect bands at this time. outlook...ifr conditions will linger in snow showers late thursday night...especially from cle/mfd east. non- vfr conditions will return saturday night into sunday with snow showers accompanying the next cold front. && marine... biggest concerns for the lake will be the increasing north-northeast winds tonight through thursday night and elevated heavy freezing spray conditions for that same time period. some concern that winds could reach low end gales for the central third of the lake thursday afternoon. glerl ice accumulation/freezing spray model showing a period of freezing spray reaching the extreme category thursday night. low temperatures thursday night expected to reach single digits. after deepening low pressure tracks across the ohio valley thursday...high pressure will move over the lower lakes and ohio valley friday. by this point wind/waves will be diminishing. next cold front crosses sometime on sunday with a wind shift to the northwest. winds not overly strong with this...but pick up again...20-25 knots monday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter weather advisory until 1 am est friday for ohz011>014- 020>023-031>033-038-089. winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. pa...winter weather advisory until 1 am est friday for paz001>003. marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lez142>149. && $$ synopsis...kosarik near term...garnet short term...kosarik long term...oudeman aviation...jamison marine...oudeman #weather