early jan 2014 weather forecast

morning jan 1 2014 info


Today at 7:00 a.m., I measured 2.25 inches of new snow that accumulated since it began last evening between 9:00 and 10:00 p.m.

From this morning's "winter weather advisory":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/winter-weather-advisory.html statement for our area:

bq. accumulations...2 to 4 inches of [additional] snow is possible today.
snowfall will become heavier tonight with another 4 to 6 inches
possible by thursday night.

bq. in addition...winds will shift to the north/northeast and increase in
intensity on thursday. this will cause blowing and drifting
snow...along with decreased visibility.

bq. north to northeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph.


br. A solid mid-winter weather pattern is setting up for the near-term, anyway. Forecast calls for some below zero temps and possibly another snowstorm on Sunday and Monday, followed by even "cooler" air early next week, which could create a significant lake effect snow event in the northeast Ohio snowbelt. Forecast:

bq.. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2. Wind chill values as low as -17. North wind 10 to 16 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 12. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 31.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. 

Sunday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. 

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1.

*Tuesday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 8.*

br.

p. Jan 1, 2014 Cle NWS morning statements:

bq. the potential exists for another major winter storm to affect the
local area sunday through tuesday. an arctic cold front with the
coldest air in quite some time is expected to move east across the
area on sunday while low pressure moves northeast along the front.
the storm will bring with it snow to the area. the arctic air mass along with
gusty winds could also bring some dangerously cold wind chills to
the area as well.

bq. early next week some of the strongest 
cold air is forecast to move into the region by all of the long 
range models. as upper level ridge moves east of the area by 
sunday...large or should i say massive polar low slides south toward 
eastern canada and the united states by monday. 

bq.. models are starting to come into agreement with the development of a 
low pressure system that will move northeast along the cold front 
sunday at the surface. the storm system is expected to intensify as 
it moves into the region. 

some of the biggest storms for this area originate out of the gulf coast 
region when an extreme cold air out break takes place. 

as arctic air spills into the 
region sunday night into monday...conditions could possibly become 
really nasty. *the front and low pressure system on sunday could have
the potential to bring some significant snow and dangerously cold 
wind chills to the entire forecast area.* added to that will be gusty 
winds with the storm system producing blowing and drifting snow.

then...as low pressure moves east with the arctic front...we are not 
done yet. the synoptic snow will transition into a lake effect snow 
event. the potential exists with lake temperatures in the lower 30s 
and lake wide open for some intense lake effect snow bands.


hr. 

I like "using":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecastio.html data provided by "Forecast.io":https://developer.forecast.io who  also maintains the "Dark Sky":http://darkskyapp.com/ iOS app. 

* http://forecast.io/lines - displays forecasts from the various data sources used by Forecast.io.
* http://forecast.io/raw - Forecast.io raw data sources.
* "Forecast.io 7-day forecast for Toledo":http://forecast.io/#/f/41.6656,-83.5753

If you view "Forecast.io Lines":http://forecast.io/lines/ for Tuesday, January 7, Forecast.io only shows two models predicting temps that far in advance: GFS (Global Forecast System) and CMC (Canadian Meteorological Center).

And those two models show a wild range of morning low temp predictions for Toledo for Tue, Jan 7:

* cmc: +3 
* gfs:  -19 

For Tue, Jan 7, Forecast.io predicts a morning low temp of -10, and the National Weather Service predicts -2.

!http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5515/11690731494_3ce1ddc1b8_z.jpg!


br. For Friday morning, January 3, here are Toledo's morning low predictions:

* gfs: 0
* Cleveland NWS: -2
* nam: -5
* Forecast.io: -6
* cmc: -6
* sref: -6

 #weather