Jan 5-6, 2014 possible storm h2. Fri, Jan 3, 2014 Morning forecast discussions: * Cleveland: depending upon the exact track and timing of the low most if not all the area could see a widespread 2-4 or 3-5 inches. * Detroit/Pontiac: the latest model runs suggest that a solid 5 to 8 inches of snow will be possible over a good part of the cwa [county warning area] * Northern Indiana: the garcia method with mixing ratios of 3 to over 4 g/kg supports snowfall of 4 to 8 inches in a 12 hour window. hr. bq. _"Winter Storm Watch hoisted for the counties in the NWS Northern Indiana area."_ That includes the counties of Fulton and Henry. Also, the Detroit/Pontiac NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch that includes Monroe and Lenawee counties. q. Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Saturday night through late Sunday night. q.. br. From the N. IN office: q. light snow is expected to begin late Saturday evening. The snow may become heavy at times Sunday into Sunday evening. Accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible through Sunday night. Gusty northwest winds will cause blowing and drifting snow Sunday into Sunday night. q.. br. From the Detroit/Pontiac office: q. accumulating snow will begin late Saturday and will peak in intensity on Sunday afternoon. Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are forecast by Sunday night with the highest amounts along and south of a Howell to Sandusky line. Temperatures will hold in the mid 20s. q.. br. Northern Indiana National Weather Service office: * http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx * Jan 3, 2014 - YouTube video - "Major Winter Storm Briefing":http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcvDVUitZfg&list=PLddrIMwRTCioGtUwKsu95SVzgaTzNFZHe&index=1 !http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2888/11736000785_34a0f6658e_o.png! youtube=gcvDVUitZfg hr. 6-12 is playing margin of error for the model spread right now. So that is a safe one to go with. All the forecast models are in the top of this thread and the totals shown in them are NEW snowfall, not what is on the ground. Quick recap of the totals... GEM: 6-8" 12Z GFS: 12-15" 12Z NAM: 6-8" 12Z Euro: 8-10" ! posted by JustaSooner on Jan 03, 2014 at 03:12:00 pm # + hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 406 pm est fri jan 3 2014 ...snow and dangerously low wind chills are on the way... .low pressure will move through the ohio valley on sunday. snow will develop across northwest ohio ahead of the low towards morning sunday with snow continuing through the day and into the evening before ending. north central and northeast ohio as well as northwest pennsylvania will see snow from mainly sunday afternoon on although a little rain could mix in as well. a strong cold front will follow the low bringing in very cold air to the region through mid week. ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-040515- /o.new.kcle.ws.a.0001.140105t0900z-140106t0600z/ /o.new.kcle.wc.a.0001.140106t0600z-140107t2000z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-marion- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion 406 pm est fri jan 3 2014 ...winter storm watch in effect from late saturday night through late sunday night... ...wind chill watch in effect from late sunday night through tuesday afternoon... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter storm watch...which is in effect from late saturday night through late sunday night. a wind chill watch has also been issued. this wind chill watch is in effect from late sunday night through tuesday afternoon. * accumulations...4 to 8 inches of snow. * timing...mainly sunday and sunday evening. dangerous wind chills will move in sunday night and continue through tuesday * winds...generally light sunday. sunday night through tuesday from the west to southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph. * impacts...snow covered roads and travel delays sunday and sunday evening. * temperatures...highs near or below monday and tuesday with morning lows in the teens below zero. * wind chill readings...as low as 35 to 40 degrees below zero at times especially tuesday morning and wednesday morning. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or the local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings. a wind chill watch is issued when strong winds will combine with cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 15 degrees below zero or colder for a period of several hours. if you will be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed skin is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged exposure to the cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or updates. hr. For the next storm ... "Detroit/Pontiac NWS site":http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx : * "Jan 4-6th, 2014 Winter Storm":http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=99359&source=0 ** "Event Slide Briefing":http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dtx/web/DTX_Briefing_20140103_2pm.pdf - pdf file ** Around 10 inches of snow predicted for Monroe County. A couple slides from the briefing: !http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3800/11741651843_86054bd75d_z.jpg! br. !http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2870/11742238376_164df9e32b_z.jpg! h2. Jan 4 Cleveland NWS this morning: q. 6 to 8 inch storm totals for northwest ohio seems reasonable at this point. q.. A bit more snow is expected in southeast Michigan. Toledo's forecast low for Tuesday morning is -15. hr. Last two runs of the NAM model have taken a slight jog to the west with the heaviest snow. This could likely result in a very tight gradient across the Toledo Metro area specifically if it verifies (GFS is still east). Example of what I'm talking about... Delta, Swanton, and much of western Lucas County 8-10". Monroe, Toledo, Maumee, Waterville, down through Henry County 6-8". Eastern Lucas County through BG 3-5" Port Clinton to Findlay 1-2" It's not unusual to have a tight gradient like this over a small area, so people just need to have some understanding of the possibility. When people don't get this then end up calling out forecasters for screwing up the forecast because their street corner didn't get X amount of snow. If you get really close in to the NAM solution on Lucas County itself, it does go from 8-10" NW and WC part of the county to 4-5" in the eastern tip. Keep in mind there is always a margin of area on placement in forecast models, and I definitely don't think it's going to end up exactly like that...but could sway 20-40 miles either way. ! posted by JustaSooner on Jan 04, 2014 at 10:03:43 am hr. Toledo area temps warmed to 30 - 32 degrees this afternoon with sunny skies for most of the day. Our temps will reach the 30s again late in the upcoming week, but the next four days will be tricky. From this afternoon's area forecast discussion, issued by the "Cleveland National Weather Service":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/area-forecast-discussions.html : +Snowfall - Sunday and early Monday:+ q. as for the winter storm warning...will drop all watches and upgrade. warning will begin across the western counties about 9z sunday morning and continue through sunday night. expecting 4 to 8 inches there with the *heaviest snow fdy to tol.* sunday night expect another 1-3/2-4 more inches although winds will increase significantly as temps plummet. this will cause *significant blowing/drifting.* q.. br. +Wind Chill Temps - Monday and Tuesday:+ q. very dangerous situation evolving as arctic air is still on track to blast across the region. during the forecast period wind chill values of -35 to -40f are possible will the depth of the cold air monday night into tuesday morning. will cover this with a wind chill warning *(my first in 28 years)* in the absence of a winter storm warning. q.. br. +Late week "warmer" weather:+ q. temperatures will warm wednesday through friday. highs will be back into the 30s thursday into friday with a couple more ripples of low pressure bringing chances of snow to the region. accumulations of snow may occur thursday into thursday night then again on saturday. q.. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jan 4, 2014 2:59 pm Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 7 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday: Snow. High near 26. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow before 11pm, then snow likely between 11pm and 1am, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow after 1am. Low around -2. Wind chill values as low as -16. Blustery, with a north wind 11 to 20 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 8am, then widespread blowing snow and a slight chance of snow showers between 8am and 3pm, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0. Wind chill values as low as -32. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around -16. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 8am, then widespread blowing snow after 8am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 1. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: Widespread blowing snow before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Friday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%. hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 406 pm est sat jan 4 2014 ...snow and dangerously low wind chills are on the way... .a winter storm system will move northeast across ohio sunday spreading snow across the entire area. a strong arctic front will follow ushering in bitter cold arctic air for the beginning of the work week. ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-050515- /o.upg.kcle.ws.a.0001.140105t0900z-140106t0600z/ /o.new.kcle.ws.w.0002.140105t0900z-140106t0900z/ /o.upg.kcle.wc.a.0001.140106t0600z-140107t2000z/ /o.new.kcle.wc.w.0001.140106t0900z-140108t1400z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-marion- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion 406 pm est sat jan 4 2014 ...winter storm warning in effect from 4 am sunday to 4 am est monday... ...wind chill warning in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow which is in effect from 4 am sunday to 4 am est monday. a wind chill warning has also been issued. this wind chill warning is in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday. * accumulations...sunday snowfall of 4 to 6 inches. sunday night snowfall of 1 to 3 inches. storm totals of 5 to 9 inches. * timing...snow will begin before sunrise with the heaviest snow expected to fall between 10 am and 6 pm. snow will continue into sunday night but will decrease in intensity. the main concern after midnight will be strong westerly winds that will usher frigid air into the region. dangerous wind chills of 20 to 40 degrees below zero will be possible. blowing and drifting snow will also be a problem. * winds...generally light sunday. 15 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 mph possible sunday night through tuesday. winds from the northwest sunday night then backing to the west and southwest. * visibilities...will drop to below a half mile at times in the heaviest snowfall on sunday. as the stronger winds arrive sunday night visibilities may drop to near zero in blowing snow. * impacts...snow covered roads. blowing and drifting snow sunday night through tuesday. it may take 10 minutes or less to get frostbite on exposed skin monday into tuesday. * temperatures...dropping to below zero on monday and remaining near or below zero into wednesday. morning lows in the teens below zero tuesday morning. * wind chill readings...20 to as low as 40 degrees below zero at times especially monday through wednesday morning. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm warning is issued when severe winter weather is expected. heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving conditions. if you will be traveling in the warning area you should choose an alternate route if possible, or you should use extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. a wind chill warning is issued when a strong wind will combine with cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 25 degrees below zero or colder for several hours. those planning to venture outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly. && $$ hazardous weather outlook hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 409 pm est sat jan 4 2014 ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-052115- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-marion- 409 pm est sat jan 4 2014 ...winter storm warning in effect from 4 am sunday to 4 am est monday... ...wind chill warning in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter storm warning. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter storm warning. wind chill warning. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. h2. Jan 5 Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jan 5, 2014 6:15 am Today: Snow. High near 31. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. Low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -16. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Monday: A chance of snow showers before 9am, then widespread blowing snow and a slight chance of snow showers between 9am and 3pm, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after 3pm. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 2. Wind chill values as low as -24. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday Night: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around -16. Wind chill values as low as -40. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 8am, then widespread blowing snow after 8am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near -6. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: Widespread blowing snow before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6. Wednesday: Snow showers likely after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 326 am est sun jan 5 2014 ...snow and dangerously low wind chills are on the way... .a winter storm system will move northeast across ohio this afternoon and evening spreading snow across the entire area. a strong arctic front will follow ushering in bitter cold arctic air for the beginning of the work week. ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-051630- /o.con.kcle.ws.w.0002.140105t0900z-140106t0900z/ /o.con.kcle.wc.w.0001.140106t0900z-140108t1400z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-marion- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion 326 am est sun jan 5 2014 ...winter storm warning remains in effect until 4 am est monday... ...wind chill warning remains in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday... * accumulations...snowfall totals today of 4 to 6 inches. snowfall tonight of 2 to 4 inches. storm totals of 6 to 10 inches. * timing...light snow will develop this morning with the heaviest snow expected to fall between 12 am and 8 pm. snow will continue tonight but will gradually diminish in intensity. the main concern after midnight will be strong westerly winds that will usher frigid air into the region. dangerous wind chills of 20 to 30 degrees below zero will be possible. blowing and drifting snow will also be a problem. * winds...generally light today....becoming northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 mph tonight. west to southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph will continue into tuesday. * visibilities...will drop to a half mile or less at times today in moderate snow. visibilities may drop to near zero in blowing snow tonight. * impacts...snow covered roads. blowing and drifting snow sunday night through tuesday. it may take 10 minutes or less to get frostbite on exposed skin monday into tuesday. * temperatures...dropping to below zero on monday and remaining near or below zero into wednesday. morning lows in the teens below zero tuesday morning. * wind chill readings...20 to as low as 40 degrees below zero at times especially monday through wednesday morning. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm warning is issued when severe winter weather is expected. heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving conditions. if you will be traveling in the warning area you should choose an alternate route if possible... or you should use extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. a wind chill warning is issued when a strong wind will combine with cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 25 degrees below zero or colder for several hours. those planning to venture outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly. && $$ hazardous weather outlook hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 500 am est sun jan 5 2014 ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-061000- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-marion- 500 am est sun jan 5 2014 ...winter storm warning in effect until 4 am est monday... ...wind chill warning in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter storm warning. wind chill warning. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. wind chill warning. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. md 0004 concerning heavy snow for ecntrl mo into scntrl through nern il...cntrl and nrn ind and swrn lower mi mesoscale discussion 0004 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0942 am cst sun jan 05 2014 areas affected...ecntrl mo into scntrl through nern il...cntrl and nrn ind and swrn lower mi concerning...heavy snow valid 051542z - 052045z summary...bands of moderate to heavy snow will develop newd through the upper midwest and srn great lakes from ecntrl mo through cntrl and nern il into cntrl and nrn ind and swrn lower mi. snowfall rates locally up to 1-1.5 inches per hour will remain possible into the afternoon. discussion...this morning a quasi-stationary front /demarcating the leading edge of an intrusion of arctic air/ extends from a surface low in nern ar through sern mo...srn il...nrn ind and sern lower mi. the sfc low should deepen as it develops newd along the front...reaching the oh valley later today in response to forcing within exit region of an upper jet rotating through base of the synoptic trough. the sly low level jet will strengthen to near 70 kt across the tn and oh valleys...likely augmenting frontogenetic forcing and isentropic ascent within baroclinic zone extending from cntrl mo newd into srn lower mi. sub-zero vertical temperature profiles north of the front will promote snow with rates augmented by frontogenetic forcing and low static stability in the 700-500 mb layer. rates could locally exceed 1 inch per hour within the heavier bands. ..dial.. 01/05/2014 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...iwx...grr...ind...pah...lot...ilx...lsx...sgf... lat...lon 41188494 39838648 37449038 37759215 42178669 42598480 41188494 hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 500 am est sun jan 5 2014 ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-061000- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-marion- 500 am est sun jan 5 2014 ...winter storm warning in effect until 4 am est monday... ...wind chill warning in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter storm warning. wind chill warning. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. wind chill warning. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ winter storm warning urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 1007 am est sun jan 5 2014 ...snow and dangerously low wind chills are on the way... .a winter storm system will move northeast across ohio this afternoon and evening spreading snow across the entire area. a strong arctic front will follow ushering in bitter cold arctic air for the beginning of the work week. ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-052315- /o.con.kcle.ws.w.0002.000000t0000z-140106t0900z/ /o.con.kcle.wc.w.0001.140106t0900z-140108t1400z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron- wyandot-crawford-marion- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion 1007 am est sun jan 5 2014 ...winter storm warning remains in effect until 4 am est monday... ...wind chill warning remains in effect from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday... * accumulations...snowfall totals today of 4 to 6 inches. snowfall tonight of 2 to 4 inches. storm totals of 6 to 10 inches. * timing...snow will occur across the area today turning occasionally heavy at times through the afternoon and early evening hours. snow will continue tonight but will gradually diminish in intensity. the main concern after midnight will be strong westerly winds that will usher frigid air into the region. dangerous wind chills of 20 to 30 degrees below zero will be possible. blowing and drifting snow will also be a problem. * winds...generally light today....becoming northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 mph tonight. west to southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph will continue into tuesday. * visibilities...will drop to a half mile or less at times today in moderate snow. visibilities may drop to near zero in blowing snow tonight. * impacts...snow covered roads. blowing and drifting snow sunday night through tuesday. it may take 10 minutes or less to get frostbite on exposed skin monday into tuesday. * temperatures...dropping to below zero on monday and remaining near or below zero into wednesday. morning lows in the teens below zero tuesday morning. * wind chill readings...20 to as low as 40 degrees below zero at times especially monday through wednesday morning. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm warning is issued when severe winter weather is expected. heavy snow and/or ice will cause hazardous driving conditions. if you will be traveling in the warning area you should choose an alternate route if possible... or you should use extreme caution if travel is unavoidable. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. a wind chill warning is issued when a strong wind will combine with cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. the wind will make it feel like it is 25 degrees below zero or colder for several hours. those planning to venture outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly. hr. fxus61 kcle 051544 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1044 am est sun jan 5 2014 synopsis... low pressure over the lower mississippi valley will strengthen and move northeast across the area this evening. arctic high pressure will drop southeast out of central canada monday and cover much of the central and southeastern states by tuesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... significant changes were made to hourly temperatures and consequently precip type...wind chills and snow accumulation through the next 24 to 36 hours. warm air is mixing in across the east with a period of rain likely as precip moves in this afternoon and this evening. no change to the "big picture" however with very cold air...snow and blowing snow as well as dangerously low wind chills moving in overnight. original...currently low pressure center in central arkansas with the arctic boundary into central lower michigan. light snow is just now reaching into nw oh. forecast question of the day what will be the track and timing of the low. used the gfs solution since gfs and ecmwf very close. both models have the low reaching central ohio toward 00z. that will allow a warm surge across ne oh/nw pa this afternoon so that any precipitation this afternoon will probably start as a period of rain. with dew points in the teens and 20s evaporational cooling will help transition precip to snow by late afternoon. heaviest snows will be from late afternoon through the evening hours when the low tracks across ne oh and nw pa. low forecast to reach eastern lake erie toward midnight local. expect 4 to 8 inches of snow across nw oh today...while in the east 1 to locally 3 inches...depending on how long it takes to change over to all snow. fyi...winter storm headlines will imply/contain any wind chill warning criteria so both headlines will not exist at the same time and place. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... little change in the short term forecast. arctic front moves through sunday night plunging the area into the deep freeze. expect falling temperatures during the day monday. temperatures will plunge to -10 to -20 degrees monday night...with wind chill values of -35 to -40f. the last wind chill warning issued by this office was 16 january 2009. synoptic snow will end most locations by monday...however lake effect across the snowbelt is expected to continue into wednesday. && long term /wednesday through saturday/... temperatures will will slowly moderate through sunday. highs are on track to break 40 degrees in a few spots as early as friday...but the guidance could be a bit on the high side given the amount of snow that will be on the ground. so there will be a better chance of breaking 40 saturday and sunday. the next chance for precip remains thursday into friday...at least according to the gfs...which brings a weak low pressure center up the spine of an inverted trough towards ohio. the ecmwf does not jump on this feature and instead indicates a low pressure system will develop over the dakotas and spread precip across ohio for the first half of the weekend. with overnight lows progged to be around freezing...rain could switch over to snow or a wintry mix after sunset. && aviation /12z sunday through thursday/... snow is increasing in intensity and coverage along a stalled cold front to the west of toledo near the ohio/indiana border. so far no restrictions to visibility at tol and fdy despite intermittent snow showers. by early morning the snow pushes east and will fill in across northern ohio...leading to ifr restrictions for most of the day. considerable accumulation of snow is expected...especially at toledo. eastern sites will likely see less snow as rain mixes in and the front accelerates east. approaching midnight the wind begins to gust to 25 to 30 knots from the west behind the front...causing blowing and drifting snow. outlook...occasional non vfr in lake effect snow across ne ohio and nw pa for monday and tuesday. more non vfr possible wednesday. && marine... as low pressure clears northern ohio and tracks towards the northeast the wind will wrap around from the southwest...becoming gusty by early monday morning. by mid-morning the wind will be gale force over the lake. combined with frigid cold temperatures...freezing spray will accumulate on objects on or near the lake. upgrades to the gale and freezing spray watches will be considered in the short term. by wednesday the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles in across the southeastern u.s. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est wednesday for ohz011>014-089. winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 5 pm est monday for ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047. wind chill warning from 5 pm monday to 9 am est wednesday for ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047. winter storm warning until 4 am est monday for ohz003-006>010- 017>019-027-028-036. wind chill warning from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday for ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036. pa...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est wednesday for paz001>003. marine...gale watch from late tonight through tuesday evening for lez061-142>149-162>169. heavy freezing spray watch from late tonight through tuesday evening for lez061-144>149-164>169. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...djb/tk short term...djb long term...mayers aviation...mayers marine...mayers hr. fxus63 kiwx 051138 afdiwx area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana 638 am est sun jan 5 2014 synopsis... issued at 520 am est sun jan 5 2014 a strong system will bring heavy snow to the area today and into this evening. amounts of 8 to 14 inches are possible. a winter storm warning is in effect through this evening. extremely cold arctic air will move in behind the system through early next week with wind chills of around 40 below zero sunday night into tuesday. a wind chill warning is in effect for this period. low temperatures tonight will crash to between 5 below zero and 18 below zero by daybreak monday. && short term...(today and tonight) issued at 516 am est sun jan 5 2014 ..near blizzard conditions expected late this afternoon and tonight... numerous issues to deal with in this short term period. frontal boundary has been draped across far nw areas overnight with little eastward movement. fgen forcing with mid level jet has led to persistent light snow with accums in the expected 2 to 4 inch range so far. central and eastern areas have only seen some light snow or flurries at times with drier air and lack of forcing. sfc temps have also remained quite warm east of front with many locations in the mid 30s at 06z. no model guidance has a handle on this with warmest models showing 30 to 32f sfc temps at best. this an initial concern but with dew points in the low to mid 20s expect evap cooling to bring these temps down quickly this morning as deeper saturation occurs. surface low still expected to deepen and ride boundary northward today with snow increasing in coverage and intensity through the day. water vapor shows short wave digging into southern plains early this morning and radar mosaic shows burgeoning area of precipitation across southern plains into mid ms valley region in response. water vapor also showing impressive subtropical moisture plume being tapped over east central pacific. results will be an impressive storm system with incredible moisture. 00z models are indeed a little slower and stronger with system as it moves into the ohio valley today. biggest concern now is with slight westward shift as noted in nam and ukmet given stronger system. nam is furthest west with warm nose nudging into nw ohio mid day. this would cut down snow amounts considerably with a period of sleet or even rain possible. while nam is furthest west and a slight outlier...it does warrant attention as we know models have an eastward bias with these type lows lifting northeast with a negatively tilted system. 500mb short wave this afternoon begins to take on more of a negative tilt as it moves through indiana and this could very well pull surface low back west as it lifts north through the ohio valley. reference similar system in january of 1999 which had very similar near blizzard conditions and a further west track through indiana. have opted to blend a bit of this solution into snow ratios for this afternoon which cuts down amounts over far southeast but still keeps amounts in the 5 to 8 inch range with snow ahead of warm nose and in deformation area this evening. elsewhere few significant changes made with heavy snow still expected...especially from late morning into early evening. used a blend of wpc...nam12 and ecmwf for qpf and snow amounts. this puts heart of heavy snow through central cwa from about cass in up to hillsdale mi. still expect some adjustment in 12z model solutions for axis of heavy snow as surface low just beginning to take form across southern plains. still expect a heavy snow axis of 10 to 14 inches with bulk of that falling between 18z and 00z with incredible moisture flux and deep lift through the region. lake enhancement and pure lake effect late tonight will also add to snowfall totals across southwest lower michigan and far nw indiana with storm totals there possibly approaching 16 to 18 inches. next issue is wind late this afternoon and overnight and possible blizzard conditions. much discussion internally among nws offices concerning upgrade to blizzard warning...which we do not take lightly and reserve for the truest conditions. strongest winds begin on back side of system late this afternoon as bulk of heavier snow is ending. 00z nam bufkit analysis indicates a period of a few hours this evening with gust potential to 40 knots. however...strict definition for blizzard warning would require sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph and visibility below 1/4 mile for 3 hours or longer. the discussion has centered around whether these conditions will be met and for how long. consensus among regional offices was to hold off on upgrading to blizzard warning given the second period event and monitor low development during the morning hours for possible upgrade later this morning. quite possible that a larger deformation area could keep heavier snow around longer to mesh with stronger winds and create true blizzard conditions. regardless of headline...forecast for heavy snow...strong winds and blowing and drifting snow will lead to many closed roads...especially rural and county roads which will likely be left alone through the period of strongest winds tonight. have continued to hit near blizzard conditions hard in warning. stay tuned to updates later this morning as system develops further and possible upgrade. final note is temps which will crash impressively tonight as low deepens and moves away. models in good agreement on strong cold air advection late tonight but still significant differences in just how cold these surface temps will be. continued with a consensus blend which yields lows of 0 to 5 below far north where lake clouds will keep temps up a bit to about 18 below zero in far southwest. wind chills will drop to about 40 below in the south by daybreak monday. && long term...(monday through saturday) issued at 516 am est sun jan 5 2014 historic/potentially life-threatening cold expected in the wake of weekend winter storm continued concern for bitterly cold wind chills early monday into tuesday with values around -40f to -45f for over 24 hours. the ecmwf has been very consistent with these bitterly cold temperatures...so will continue with highs near record coldest highs monday and lows monday night near all time record lows...especially at fwa. wind chill warning certainly warranted into tuesday. temperatures should moderate somewhat during the day tuesday...although bitterly cold conditions will continue into tuesday evening. temperatures will continue to modify as massive polar vortex moves north toward greenland. kept a chance for snow mainly wednesday night into thursday associated with the passage of a weak upper level trof. unsettled conditions are possible over the coming weekend...although temperatures should recover to above normal readings late this week. held off with the very mild ecmwf temps in the lower to mid 40s saturday given uncertainty and likely deep snow cover. && aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z monday morning) issued at 636 am est sun jan 5 2014 few changes to previous forecasts and thinking with this package. light snow will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this morning. a little freezing drizzle on leading edge possible at kfwa for a few hours this morning. heavy snow by early afternoon into this evening. winds increase late afternoon and early evening with significant blowing and drifting expected but snow will be diminishing so visibilities may increase to between one half and one mile depending on amount and height of blowing snow. && iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...winter storm warning until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. wind chill warning from 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday to 8 pm est /7 pm cst/ tuesday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027- 032>034. mi...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for miz077>081. wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for miz077>081. oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025. wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. lm...heavy freezing spray warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am est tuesday for lmz043-046. small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for lmz043- 046. gale warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am est tuesday for lmz043-046. && $$ synopsis...lashley short term...lashley long term...skipper aviation...lashley visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx (all lower case) follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at: www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.northernin.gov www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana hr. fxus63 kdtx 051530 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 1030 am est sun jan 5 2014 update... the lull in snowfall intensity this morning has occurred as expected as the mid level fgen has waned a bit. however...the next phase of this prolonged storm system is already advancing toward the forecast area. noted cooling in the ir imagery has been occurring across illinois within an intensifying region of mid level deformation associated with the wave now lifting toward the mid ms valley. available observations and latest 12z nam/rap suggest this renewed round of mid level fgen expanding across se mi this afternoon. recent sfc observations and sfc pressure falls suggest the sfc low will track across central ohio this evening. the most intense deformation is expected to occur in the 00z to 06z time frame. there is likely to be some contraction of the mid level fgen later this evening as the mid level stability decreases. this will potentially set up a band of prolonged intense snowfall somewhere between detroit and saginaw. recent observations support a continuating of the warning for the intire forecast area. given the mid level forcing is not expected to wane until after 06z...the warning will be extended to 4 am monday morning. moisture quality continues to look good with this system. given the expected forcing...additional liquid qpf between 18z and 06z of 0.5 to 0.8 seems reasonable. liquid to snow ratios will be around 10:1 this afternoon but should fall to 12 to 14:1 during the evening as colder air begins to wrap around the sfc low. thus an additional 6 to 10 inches can be expected this afternoon through tonight. in light of the snowfall last night /amounting to 3 to 6 inches along the m 59 and i-69 corridors/ storm total snowfall of 8 to as much as 15 inches seems reasonable. again the highest totals should be between the northern detroit suburbs and southern saginaw/tuscola/sanilac counties. an update to the zones/grids/wsw will be forthcoming this morning. && aviation...issued 549 am est sun jan 5 2014/ //discussion... the widespread area of light to moderate snow is expected to break up or ease this morning as upper level support shifts northward. uncertainty is high with regards to how this will exactly play out...but ifr conditions are expected to ease to mvfr for some time this morning. heavy snowfall is then expected to lift northward into lower michigan this afternoon in advance of the deepening winter storm system. an extended period of lifr conditions are expected between 21-03z with visibility lowering to less than 1/2 mile. snowfall rates of one inch per hour can be expected during that timeframe. for dtw...light snow has filled in over far southeastern michigan this morning as the last of the upper air ridging becomes squeezed eastward. the snow intensity this morning will remain light with an inch or two possible through noon. heavy snowfall will then spread over the terminal during the afternoon and continue into the evening as a winter storm lifts through the ohio river valley. //dtw threshold threats... * high confidence in ceilings below 5000 ft. * high confidence in precipitation falling as snow through the forecast period. * high confidence in visibility falling below 1/2 mile in moderate to heavy snow late sunday afternoon and early evening. && prev discussion...issued 427 am est sun jan 5 2014/ short term...today and tonight 05.00z global/deterministic trend was a stronger...slower...and slightly northwestward one facilitated by a greater phasing later today between the pv anomaly now rounding through the panhandles and the western hemispheric extension of the polar vortex digging into montana. this is no surprise considering the westward progression by the nwp suite has been going on for days. a few adjustments to the forecast have been made...but the headlines remain in great shape overall. last evening through 12z...strengthening midlevel frontogenesis under coherent polar jet axis allowed for the development of a long reaching swath of precipitation/snow from toronto clear down into the tx/ok panhandles. locally...the light snow has persisted throughout the night roughly 45 miles on either side of a line from lansing to flint to sandusky. snow ratios through the first half of the night were uniform across the cwa at an approximate 10:1. this has changed over the past hour with the fluff factor and snow ratios increasing due to a substantial increase in midlevel h75-h5 uvvs. the increase in vertical motion has been brought possible by increasing upper level divergence with both the magnitude of the jet streak increasing with time and an anticyclonic curvature change. snowfall rates which had been eerily steady at .3 inch per hour are undergoing an increase. have had a lack of snowfall reports recently...but feeling is 2 to 4 inches will have fallen by 12z. as long as the 4 inch amounts are more widespread...this will have outpaced the earlier forecast. for wayne/lenawee/monroe counties the snow has not started due to remnant upper level ridging. models support the erosion of the ridging after 9z...which will allow light snow to develop (regional mosaic does show returns filling in). expectations are for a half to one inch of snowfall for those counties by 12z. 12-18z...subtly...500mb charts show that loosely defined cyclonic vorticity energy migrating along the fgen zone will orphan off of the front and release northward through lower michigan and points northward. this is absolutely reasonable given the increasing influence by the panhandle energy/southern jet maximum. the abrupt disruption caused by this inbound momentum will cause downstream amplification of a shortwave ridge feature. and while shortwave ridging component will not be nearly as strong as it will be much farther east...it should be enough to cause for a relative lull in activity this morning. do not like to totally abandon active/saturated frontal forcing because mid to upper level energy can exit but the low levels can still churn away generating precipitation. models are definitely onboard with this from a uvv perspective. no real dry air to speak of so categorical pops with light snow should suffice. generally looking at an inch...locally two during this timeframe. 18-00z...a classic midlatitude cyclone is expected to lift northward through the ohio river valley impacting southeastern michigan. the 00z suite checked in with very good agreement with strengthening a surface cyclone to 993mb near hamilton ontario by 6z. it has been fun to watch the evolution of the model solutions with regards to the amount of advertised phasing between the southern pv anomaly and the much stronger lobe of the polar vortex. in fact...the main 500mb vorticity maximum is now expected to go from a flat-positive tilt at 12z over nd to a meridional- neutral configuration by 3z over iowa. this will cause a secondary maximum of rapidly deepening 1000-500mb height falls which will cause the deepening surface low to at least draw back west. that is the explanation for the westward trend as time has been approaching zero. there remains some uncertainty with regards to exact track of the midlevel low circulation which will persist into the nowcast timeframe. the idea is that it will track northward to just east of lake erie shoreline/detroit river or slightly to the west...eclipsing a small portion of the cwa between 00-03z. now dry slot issues are expected but will likely result in lower snow ratios (sub 10:1) for the extreme southeastern cwa due to warmer air. if anything...the midlevel circulation passing just into the cwa will increase low to midlevel convergence in advance of and to the north. it is with this increase in low to midlevel forcing that will bring a dramatic increase in precipitation rates due to heavy snow. adjusted accumulations slightly westward to account for location of the midlevel circulation and deformation feature. expecting 2 to 4 inches of snowfall for the eastern cwa...3 to 5 inches across the western cwa. 00-06z...deformation snows will be ongoing at the start of the tonight period with the deepening surface cyclone. combination of rh fields in combination with forecasted wind trajectory analysis suggests precipitation will hold through 3z...then rapidly falling off after. the general pop forecast is unchanged...but qpf amounts after 00z were adjusted upward. snowfall amounts after 00z are expected to range 1 to 3 inches in many locations...2 to 4 inches for locations north and east of detroit. with the expectation that up to 2 inches may fall through the morning hours...will exercise patience and not make an adjustment to the start time for wayne/lenawee/monroe counties. the end time of 6z for the winter storm warning still offers a clean headline across the board...refinements can be made later. overall...looking at event totals of 9 to 12 (locally greater than 12 inches) for the central part of the cwa...5 to 11 inches in the saginaw valley...6 to 9 inches for the lower terrain of southern macomb/wayne/monroe counties. long term...monday through saturday arctic airmass will overspread the region quickly on monday in the wake of this winter storm with the coldest air pivoting around lake michigan into far southern portions of the cwa. temperatures will be falling at daybreak and will continue to do so throughout the day as temperatures fall below zero (perhaps near -10f near the ohio border by midday). further north...this process will be muted slightly by modification of this airmass...so temperatures will fall to around zero during the day from metro detroit northward. with westerly winds of 20 mph or more ushering this arctic air into the area...wind chills will fall to dangerous levels during monday ranging from -10f to -20f over the northern cwa by midday and -20f to -30f from metro detroit south. cold air advection will continue unabated into monday night and temperatures will plunge to around -15f south of i 94 and -5f to -10f over the remainder of the area. wind chills will continue to fall...bottoming out between -25f and -40f monday night and then persisting at these levels through tuesday morning before slight improvement late in the day as winds diminish and temperatures struggle to near zero. still...dangerous conditions will persist into tuesday night. will be issuing a wind chill warning from monday morning to midnight tuesday night for the entire area. lake effect squalls/snow showers can also be expected with this bitter west to southwest flow. initial activity will focus along i 94 in westerly flow monday and then drift to near the m 59 corridor by evening as winds back further to the west/southwest. southwest flow will then maintain at least some snow shower activity into tuesday...focused in the vicinity of the i 69/m 59 corridors. low level inversion heights do fall from around 5kft monday to 3kft on tuesday...so accumulating snow showers will be more likely monday into monday night. while difficult to judge...such a setup should garner localized amounts up to a few inches in the favored corridor between i 94 and i 69. will not make any changes to forecast as of yet. temperatures will begin a moderating trend late this week into the weekend as highs climb back into the 20s to 30s with time. within this waa pattern...another period of light snow will be possible in the wednesday night to thursday night time frame as warmer air overruns the retreating arctic airmass. marine... north to northeast winds will increase rapidly this evening into tonight as deepening low pressure tracks from the ohio valley to southern ontario and the pressure gradient tightens over the area. gale warnings will be issued for much of lake huron...beginning around midnight sunday night. before these conditions set in over the area...expect a wide area of snow to occur from southern lake huron southward through this evening. as this low tracks to near lake erie late today...periods of heavy snow will become likely. wind gusts will then hover around low end gales through monday and increase some on monday evening as arctic air pivots into area as winds back to the west and southwest. these conditions will then persist through tuesday as this arctic airmass progresses through the great lakes. during this process...westerly gales will also develop over western lake erie...with the strongest winds expected throughout the day monday. with these windy and bitterly cold conditions...heavy freezing spray will become a significant issue over lake huron as well. expect an extended period of widespread freezing spray over much of the open waters from monday morning on through tuesday night. && dtx watches/warnings/advisories... mi...winter storm warning...miz047-miz048-miz049-miz053-miz054-miz055- miz060-miz061-miz062-miz063-miz068-miz069-miz070-miz075-miz076- miz082-miz083...until 10 pm sunday. wind chill warning...miz047-miz048-miz049-miz053-miz054-miz055- miz060-miz061-miz062-miz063-miz068-miz069-miz070-miz075-miz076- miz082-miz083...from 7 am monday to 1 am wednesday. lake huron... gale warning...lhz362-lhz363-lhz462...from midnight monday to 10 pm tuesday. heavy freezing spray warning...lhz362-lhz363-lhz462...from 7 am monday to 7 am wednesday. gale warning...lhz421-lhz441-lhz442-lhz443-lhz463-lhz464...from midnight monday to 10 pm monday. small craft advisory for winds...inner saginaw bay...from midnight monday to midnight tuesday. heavy freezing spray warning...lhz463-lhz464...from 7 am monday to 7 pm tuesday. lake st clair...none. mi waters of lake erie... gale warning...from 10 am monday to 10 pm monday. && $$ update.......sc aviation.....99 short term...cb long term....dg marine.......dg you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit (all lower case). hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jan 5, 2014 9:44 am This Afternoon: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tonight: Snow before 3am, then snow likely between 3am and 4am, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -5. Blustery, with a north wind 11 to 16 mph becoming northwest 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Monday: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 8am, then widespread blowing snow and a slight chance of snow showers between 8am and 2pm, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after 2pm. Cloudy and cold, with a temperature falling to around -4 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -29. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday Night: Widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around -16. Wind chill values as low as -41. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: Widespread blowing snow. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near -6. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 22 mph. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6. Wednesday: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Friday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. hr. Toledo Area Forecast Summaries (using forecast.io data) Now: Overcast 33 F - SE at 4 mph Next 24 Hours: Windy starting tonight, with heavy snow (6–9 in) throughout the day. Next 7 Days: Snow off-and-on until Thursday; temperatures bottoming out at [high temp] -3° on Tuesday. -16 for low predicted on Tuesday.-5 on Wednesday. #weather