Jan 5-7, 2014 Weather #weather - #toledo fxus61 kcle 051544 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1044 am est sun jan 5 2014 synopsis... low pressure over the lower mississippi valley will strengthen and move northeast across the area this evening. arctic high pressure will drop southeast out of central canada monday and cover much of the central and southeastern states by tuesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... significant changes were made to hourly temperatures and consequently precip type...wind chills and snow accumulation through the next 24 to 36 hours. warm air is mixing in across the east with a period of rain likely as precip moves in this afternoon and this evening. no change to the "big picture" however with very cold air...snow and blowing snow as well as dangerously low wind chills moving in overnight. original...currently low pressure center in central arkansas with the arctic boundary into central lower michigan. light snow is just now reaching into nw oh. forecast question of the day what will be the track and timing of the low. used the gfs solution since gfs and ecmwf very close. both models have the low reaching central ohio toward 00z. that will allow a warm surge across ne oh/nw pa this afternoon so that any precipitation this afternoon will probably start as a period of rain. with dew points in the teens and 20s evaporational cooling will help transition precip to snow by late afternoon. heaviest snows will be from late afternoon through the evening hours when the low tracks across ne oh and nw pa. low forecast to reach eastern lake erie toward midnight local. expect 4 to 8 inches of snow across nw oh today...while in the east 1 to locally 3 inches...depending on how long it takes to change over to all snow. fyi...winter storm headlines will imply/contain any wind chill warning criteria so both headlines will not exist at the same time and place. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... little change in the short term forecast. arctic front moves through sunday night plunging the area into the deep freeze. expect falling temperatures during the day monday. temperatures will plunge to -10 to -20 degrees monday night...with wind chill values of -35 to -40f. the last wind chill warning issued by this office was 16 january 2009. synoptic snow will end most locations by monday...however lake effect across the snowbelt is expected to continue into wednesday. && long term /wednesday through saturday/... temperatures will will slowly moderate through sunday. highs are on track to break 40 degrees in a few spots as early as friday...but the guidance could be a bit on the high side given the amount of snow that will be on the ground. so there will be a better chance of breaking 40 saturday and sunday. the next chance for precip remains thursday into friday...at least according to the gfs...which brings a weak low pressure center up the spine of an inverted trough towards ohio. the ecmwf does not jump on this feature and instead indicates a low pressure system will develop over the dakotas and spread precip across ohio for the first half of the weekend. with overnight lows progged to be around freezing...rain could switch over to snow or a wintry mix after sunset. && aviation /12z sunday through thursday/... snow is increasing in intensity and coverage along a stalled cold front to the west of toledo near the ohio/indiana border. so far no restrictions to visibility at tol and fdy despite intermittent snow showers. by early morning the snow pushes east and will fill in across northern ohio...leading to ifr restrictions for most of the day. considerable accumulation of snow is expected...especially at toledo. eastern sites will likely see less snow as rain mixes in and the front accelerates east. approaching midnight the wind begins to gust to 25 to 30 knots from the west behind the front...causing blowing and drifting snow. outlook...occasional non vfr in lake effect snow across ne ohio and nw pa for monday and tuesday. more non vfr possible wednesday. && marine... as low pressure clears northern ohio and tracks towards the northeast the wind will wrap around from the southwest...becoming gusty by early monday morning. by mid-morning the wind will be gale force over the lake. combined with frigid cold temperatures...freezing spray will accumulate on objects on or near the lake. upgrades to the gale and freezing spray watches will be considered in the short term. by wednesday the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles in across the southeastern u.s. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est wednesday for ohz011>014-089. winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 5 pm est monday for ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047. wind chill warning from 5 pm monday to 9 am est wednesday for ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047. winter storm warning until 4 am est monday for ohz003-006>010- 017>019-027-028-036. wind chill warning from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday for ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036. pa...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est wednesday for paz001>003. marine...gale watch from late tonight through tuesday evening for lez061-142>149-162>169. heavy freezing spray watch from late tonight through tuesday evening for lez061-144>149-164>169. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...djb/tk short term...djb long term...mayers aviation...mayers marine...mayers hr. http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/mesoscale0004.html !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd0004.gif! hr. fxus63 kdtx 051710 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 1210 pm est sun jan 5 2014 aviation... //discussion... moderate to heavy snow (lifr) will continue this afternoon...persisting into the evening hours as low pressure tracks through the eastern great lakes. additional snowfall of 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected across the area before the snow tapers off during the early morning hours. the aviation forecast becomes increasing challenging overnight into tomorrow...as northwest winds ramp up and usher in arctic air into lower michigan...with winds shifting to the west tomorrow morning...with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots. will carry mvfr conditions through the day due to blowing snow and snow showers...but snow squalls and blowing snow could easily reduce visibilities to ifr and even lifr...but timing and location is uncertain to include in tafs at this time. //dtw threshold threats... * high confidence in ceilings below 5000 ft. * high confidence in precipitation falling as snow through the forecast period. * high confidence in visibility falling below 1/2 mile in heavy snow this afternoon and early evening this evening. * high confidence in westerly wind gusts of 25 knots or greater during monday. && prev discussion...issued 1030 am est sun jan 5 2014/ update... the lull in snowfall intensity this morning has occurred as expected as the mid level fgen has waned a bit. however...the next phase of this prolonged storm system is already advancing toward the forecast area. noted cooling in the ir imagery has been occurring across illinois within an intensifying region of mid level deformation associated with the wave now lifting toward the mid ms valley. available observations and latest 12z nam/rap suggest this renewed round of mid level fgen expanding across se mi this afternoon. recent sfc observations and sfc pressure falls suggest the sfc low will track across central ohio this evening. the most intense deformation is expected to occur in the 00z to 06z time frame. there is likely to be some contraction of the mid level fgen later this evening as the mid level stability decreases. this will potentially set up a band of prolonged intense snowfall somewhere between detroit and saginaw. recent observations support a continuating of the warning for the intire forecast area. given the mid level forcing is not expected to wane until after 06z...the warning will be extended to 4 am monday morning. moisture quality continues to look good with this system. given the expected forcing...additional liquid qpf between 18z and 06z of 0.5 to 0.8 seems reasonable. liquid to snow ratios will be around 10:1 this afternoon but should fall to 12 to 14:1 during the evening as colder air begins to wrap around the sfc low. thus an additional 6 to 10 inches can be expected this afternoon through tonight. in light of the snowfall last night /amounting to 3 to 6 inches along the m 59 and i-69 corridors/ storm total snowfall of 8 to as much as 15 inches seems reasonable. again the highest totals should be between the northern detroit suburbs and southern saginaw/tuscola/sanilac counties. an update to the zones/grids/wsw will be forthcoming this morning. prev discussion...issued 427 am est sun jan 5 2014/ short term...today and tonight 05.00z global/deterministic trend was a stronger...slower...and slightly northwestward one facilitated by a greater phasing later today between the pv anomaly now rounding through the panhandles and the western hemispheric extension of the polar vortex digging into montana. this is no surprise considering the westward progression by the nwp suite has been going on for days. a few adjustments to the forecast have been made...but the headlines remain in great shape overall. last evening through 12z...strengthening midlevel frontogenesis under coherent polar jet axis allowed for the development of a long reaching swath of precipitation/snow from toronto clear down into the tx/ok panhandles. locally...the light snow has persisted throughout the night roughly 45 miles on either side of a line from lansing to flint to sandusky. snow ratios through the first half of the night were uniform across the cwa at an approximate 10:1. this has changed over the past hour with the fluff factor and snow ratios increasing due to a substantial increase in midlevel h75-h5 uvvs. the increase in vertical motion has been brought possible by increasing upper level divergence with both the magnitude of the jet streak increasing with time and an anticyclonic curvature change. snowfall rates which had been eerily steady at .3 inch per hour are undergoing an increase. have had a lack of snowfall reports recently...but feeling is 2 to 4 inches will have fallen by 12z. as long as the 4 inch amounts are more widespread...this will have outpaced the earlier forecast. for wayne/lenawee/monroe counties the snow has not started due to remnant upper level ridging. models support the erosion of the ridging after 9z...which will allow light snow to develop (regional mosaic does show returns filling in). expectations are for a half to one inch of snowfall for those counties by 12z. 12-18z...subtly...500mb charts show that loosely defined cyclonic vorticity energy migrating along the fgen zone will orphan off of the front and release northward through lower michigan and points northward. this is absolutely reasonable given the increasing influence by the panhandle energy/southern jet maximum. the abrupt disruption caused by this inbound momentum will cause downstream amplification of a shortwave ridge feature. and while shortwave ridging component will not be nearly as strong as it will be much farther east...it should be enough to cause for a relative lull in activity this morning. do not like to totally abandon active/saturated frontal forcing because mid to upper level energy can exit but the low levels can still churn away generating precipitation. models are definitely onboard with this from a uvv perspective. no real dry air to speak of so categorical pops with light snow should suffice. generally looking at an inch...locally two during this timeframe. 18-00z...a classic midlatitude cyclone is expected to lift northward through the ohio river valley impacting southeastern michigan. the 00z suite checked in with very good agreement with strengthening a surface cyclone to 993mb near hamilton ontario by 6z. it has been fun to watch the evolution of the model solutions with regards to the amount of advertised phasing between the southern pv anomaly and the much stronger lobe of the polar vortex. in fact...the main 500mb vorticity maximum is now expected to go from a flat-positive tilt at 12z over nd to a meridional- neutral configuration by 3z over iowa. this will cause a secondary maximum of rapidly deepening 1000-500mb height falls which will cause the deepening surface low to at least draw back west. that is the explanation for the westward trend as time has been approaching zero. there remains some uncertainty with regards to exact track of the midlevel low circulation which will persist into the nowcast timeframe. the idea is that it will track northward to just east of lake erie shoreline/detroit river or slightly to the west...eclipsing a small portion of the cwa between 00-03z. now dry slot issues are expected but will likely result in lower snow ratios (sub 10:1) for the extreme southeastern cwa due to warmer air. if anything...the midlevel circulation passing just into the cwa will increase low to midlevel convergence in advance of and to the north. it is with this increase in low to midlevel forcing that will bring a dramatic increase in precipitation rates due to heavy snow. adjusted accumulations slightly westward to account for location of the midlevel circulation and deformation feature. expecting 2 to 4 inches of snowfall for the eastern cwa...3 to 5 inches across the western cwa. 00-06z...deformation snows will be ongoing at the start of the tonight period with the deepening surface cyclone. combination of rh fields in combination with forecasted wind trajectory analysis suggests precipitation will hold through 3z...then rapidly falling off after. the general pop forecast is unchanged...but qpf amounts after 00z were adjusted upward. snowfall amounts after 00z are expected to range 1 to 3 inches in many locations...2 to 4 inches for locations north and east of detroit. with the expectation that up to 2 inches may fall through the morning hours...will exercise patience and not make an adjustment to the start time for wayne/lenawee/monroe counties. the end time of 6z for the winter storm warning still offers a clean headline across the board...refinements can be made later. overall...looking at event totals of 9 to 12 (locally greater than 12 inches) for the central part of the cwa...5 to 11 inches in the saginaw valley...6 to 9 inches for the lower terrain of southern macomb/wayne/monroe counties. long term...monday through saturday arctic airmass will overspread the region quickly on monday in the wake of this winter storm with the coldest air pivoting around lake michigan into far southern portions of the cwa. temperatures will be falling at daybreak and will continue to do so throughout the day as temperatures fall below zero (perhaps near -10f near the ohio border by midday). further north...this process will be muted slightly by modification of this airmass...so temperatures will fall to around zero during the day from metro detroit northward. with westerly winds of 20 mph or more ushering this arctic air into the area...wind chills will fall to dangerous levels during monday ranging from -10f to -20f over the northern cwa by midday and -20f to -30f from metro detroit south. cold air advection will continue unabated into monday night and temperatures will plunge to around -15f south of i 94 and -5f to -10f over the remainder of the area. wind chills will continue to fall...bottoming out between -25f and -40f monday night and then persisting at these levels through tuesday morning before slight improvement late in the day as winds diminish and temperatures struggle to near zero. still...dangerous conditions will persist into tuesday night. will be issuing a wind chill warning from monday morning to midnight tuesday night for the entire area. lake effect squalls/snow showers can also be expected with this bitter west to southwest flow. initial activity will focus along i 94 in westerly flow monday and then drift to near the m 59 corridor by evening as winds back further to the west/southwest. southwest flow will then maintain at least some snow shower activity into tuesday...focused in the vicinity of the i 69/m 59 corridors. low level inversion heights do fall from around 5kft monday to 3kft on tuesday...so accumulating snow showers will be more likely monday into monday night. while difficult to judge...such a setup should garner localized amounts up to a few inches in the favored corridor between i 94 and i 69. will not make any changes to forecast as of yet. temperatures will begin a moderating trend late this week into the weekend as highs climb back into the 20s to 30s with time. within this waa pattern...another period of light snow will be possible in the wednesday night to thursday night time frame as warmer air overruns the retreating arctic airmass. marine... north to northeast winds will increase rapidly this evening into tonight as deepening low pressure tracks from the ohio valley to southern ontario and the pressure gradient tightens over the area. gale warnings will be issued for much of lake huron...beginning around midnight sunday night. before these conditions set in over the area...expect a wide area of snow to occur from southern lake huron southward through this evening. as this low tracks to near lake erie late today...periods of heavy snow will become likely. wind gusts will then hover around low end gales through monday and increase some on monday evening as arctic air pivots into area as winds back to the west and southwest. these conditions will then persist through tuesday as this arctic airmass progresses through the great lakes. during this process...westerly gales will also develop over western lake erie...with the strongest winds expected throughout the day monday. with these windy and bitterly cold conditions...heavy freezing spray will become a significant issue over lake huron as well. expect an extended period of widespread freezing spray over much of the open waters from monday morning on through tuesday night. && dtx watches/warnings/advisories... mi...winter storm warning...miz047-miz048-miz049-miz053-miz054-miz055- miz060-miz061-miz062-miz063-miz068-miz069-miz070-miz075-miz076- miz082-miz083...until 4 am monday. wind chill warning...miz047-miz048-miz049-miz053-miz054-miz055- miz060-miz061-miz062-miz063-miz068-miz069-miz070-miz075-miz076- miz082-miz083...from 7 am monday to 1 am wednesday. lake huron... gale warning...lhz362-lhz363-lhz462...from midnight monday to 10 pm tuesday. heavy freezing spray warning...lhz362-lhz363-lhz462...from 7 am monday to 7 am wednesday. gale warning...lhz421-lhz441-lhz442-lhz443-lhz463-lhz464...from midnight monday to 10 pm monday. small craft advisory for winds...inner saginaw bay...from midnight monday to midnight tuesday. heavy freezing spray warning...lhz463-lhz464...from 7 am monday to 7 pm tuesday. lake st clair...none. mi waters of lake erie... gale warning...from 10 am monday to 10 pm monday. && $$ aviation.....sf update.......sc short term...cb long term....dg marine.......dg you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit (all lower case). hr. fxus63 kiwx 051638 afdiwx area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana 1138 am est sun jan 5 2014 synopsis... issued at 520 am est sun jan 5 2014 a strong system will bring heavy snow to the area today and into this evening. amounts of 8 to 14 inches are possible. a winter storm warning is in effect through this evening. extremely cold arctic air will move in behind the system through early next week with wind chills of around 40 below zero sunday night into tuesday. a wind chill warning is in effect for this period. low temperatures tonight will crash to between 5 below zero and 18 below zero by daybreak monday. && update... issued at 1135 am est sun jan 5 2014 no changes to the going forecast/headlines this morning. moderate to heavy snow currently blossoming over the area with cyclogenesis well underway over the mid-mississippi valley in the exit region of an impressive...and steadily strengthening...cyclonically curved upper level jet streak. phasing of intense polar vortex dropping out of the northern plains with southern stream pv anomaly will force further height falls as the trough axis takes on a negative tilt this evening. 12z models continued earlier noted trend of just a slight nudge to the west...not unusual with these strongly phased...negatively tilted systems. this has allowed for a brief rain/snow mix in our far east/southeast counties but expect mainly snow this afternoon/evening based on latest forecast soundings. exceptional warm/moist air advection with this system is clearly evident on regional radar mosaic. strong 280-285k isentropic upglide along strengthening 850-700mb fgen axis with mixing ratios approaching 4 g/kg is already generating snowfall rates of 2"/hour in the heaviest band. very heavy snow will continue through the afternoon...and though it will begin to taper off shortly after 00z...still expecting total amounts of 8 to 14 inches across the area. still concerned about the potential for blizzard conditions in our northwest this evening. slight westward shift will bring lighter winds and lower snow ratios to our central and southeast counties but northwest areas...especially near the lake...could see enough wind/fluffier snow to generate blizzard conditions. hi-res models also still indicate the potential for a lake effect band to materialize this evening that could further decrease visibilities. after coordination with surrounding offices...decided to hold off on an upgrade given potential for wetter/heavier snow with surface temperatures just slightly below freezing and low confidence in lake effect band development this evening. will continue to hit near blizzard conditions hard in wsw and re-evaluate with the afternoon package. again...best chance for blizzard conditions will be in our northwest third from roughly 00-06z this evening. && short term...(today and tonight) issued at 516 am est sun jan 5 2014 ..near blizzard conditions expected late this afternoon and tonight... numerous issues to deal with in this short term period. frontal boundary has been draped across far nw areas overnight with little eastward movement. fgen forcing with mid level jet has led to persistent light snow with accums in the expected 2 to 4 inch range so far. central and eastern areas have only seen some light snow or flurries at times with drier air and lack of forcing. sfc temps have also remained quite warm east of front with many locations in the mid 30s at 06z. no model guidance has a handle on this with warmest models showing 30 to 32f sfc temps at best. this an initial concern but with dew points in the low to mid 20s expect evap cooling to bring these temps down quickly this morning as deeper saturation occurs. surface low still expected to deepen and ride boundary northward today with snow increasing in coverage and intensity through the day. water vapor shows short wave digging into southern plains early this morning and radar mosaic shows burgeoning area of precipitation across southern plains into mid ms valley region in response. water vapor also showing impressive subtropical moisture plume being tapped over east central pacific. results will be an impressive storm system with incredible moisture. 00z models are indeed a little slower and stronger with system as it moves into the ohio valley today. biggest concern now is with slight westward shift as noted in nam and ukmet given stronger system. nam is furthest west with warm nose nudging into nw ohio mid day. this would cut down snow amounts considerably with a period of sleet or even rain possible. while nam is furthest west and a slight outlier...it does warrant attention as we know models have an eastward bias with these type lows lifting northeast with a negatively tilted system. 500mb short wave this afternoon begins to take on more of a negative tilt as it moves through indiana and this could very well pull surface low back west as it lifts north through the ohio valley. reference similar system in january of 1999 which had very similar near blizzard conditions and a further west track through indiana. have opted to blend a bit of this solution into snow ratios for this afternoon which cuts down amounts over far southeast but still keeps amounts in the 5 to 8 inch range with snow ahead of warm nose and in deformation area this evening. elsewhere few significant changes made with heavy snow still expected...especially from late morning into early evening. used a blend of wpc...nam12 and ecmwf for qpf and snow amounts. this puts heart of heavy snow through central cwa from about cass in up to hillsdale mi. still expect some adjustment in 12z model solutions for axis of heavy snow as surface low just beginning to take form across southern plains. still expect a heavy snow axis of 10 to 14 inches with bulk of that falling between 18z and 00z with incredible moisture flux and deep lift through the region. lake enhancement and pure lake effect late tonight will also add to snowfall totals across southwest lower michigan and far nw indiana with storm totals there possibly approaching 16 to 18 inches. next issue is wind late this afternoon and overnight and possible blizzard conditions. much discussion internally among nws offices concerning upgrade to blizzard warning...which we do not take lightly and reserve for the truest conditions. strongest winds begin on back side of system late this afternoon as bulk of heavier snow is ending. 00z nam bufkit analysis indicates a period of a few hours this evening with gust potential to 40 knots. however...strict definition for blizzard warning would require sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph and visibility below 1/4 mile for 3 hours or longer. the discussion has centered around whether these conditions will be met and for how long. consensus among regional offices was to hold off on upgrading to blizzard warning given the second period event and monitor low development during the morning hours for possible upgrade later this morning. quite possible that a larger deformation area could keep heavier snow around longer to mesh with stronger winds and create true blizzard conditions. regardless of headline...forecast for heavy snow...strong winds and blowing and drifting snow will lead to many closed roads...especially rural and county roads which will likely be left alone through the period of strongest winds tonight. have continued to hit near blizzard conditions hard in warning. stay tuned to updates later this morning as system develops further and possible upgrade. final note is temps which will crash impressively tonight as low deepens and moves away. models in good agreement on strong cold air advection late tonight but still significant differences in just how cold these surface temps will be. continued with a consensus blend which yields lows of 0 to 5 below far north where lake clouds will keep temps up a bit to about 18 below zero in far southwest. wind chills will drop to about 40 below in the south by daybreak monday. && long term...(monday through saturday) issued at 516 am est sun jan 5 2014 historic/potentially life-threatening cold expected in the wake of weekend winter storm continued concern for bitterly cold wind chills early monday into tuesday with values around -40f to -45f for over 24 hours. the ecmwf has been very consistent with these bitterly cold temperatures...so will continue with highs near record coldest highs monday and lows monday night near all time record lows...especially at fwa. wind chill warning certainly warranted into tuesday. temperatures should moderate somewhat during the day tuesday...although bitterly cold conditions will continue into tuesday evening. temperatures will continue to modify as massive polar vortex moves north toward greenland. kept a chance for snow mainly wednesday night into thursday associated with the passage of a weak upper level trof. unsettled conditions are possible over the coming weekend...although temperatures should recover to above normal readings late this week. held off with the very mild ecmwf temps in the lower to mid 40s saturday given uncertainty and likely deep snow cover. && aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z monday morning) issued at 636 am est sun jan 5 2014 few changes to previous forecasts and thinking with this package. light snow will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this morning. a little freezing drizzle on leading edge possible at kfwa for a few hours this morning. heavy snow by early afternoon into this evening. winds increase late afternoon and early evening with significant blowing and drifting expected but snow will be diminishing so visibilities may increase to between one half and one mile depending on amount and height of blowing snow. && iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...winter storm warning until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. wind chill warning from 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday to 8 pm est /7 pm cst/ tuesday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027- 032>034. mi...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for miz077>081. wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for miz077>081. oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025. wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. lm...heavy freezing spray warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am est tuesday for lmz043-046. small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for lmz043- 046. gale warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am est tuesday for lmz043-046. && $$ update...agd synopsis...lashley short term...lashley long term...skipper aviation...lashley visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx (all lower case) follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at: www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.northernin.gov www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana h2. WWUS43 KDTX 051622 WSWDTX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... .SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY REINTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND ROUND OF THIS PROLONGED STORM SYSTEM BEGINS. THIS SECOND ROUND OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE COLDEST AIR TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN PERHAPS THE PAST 20 YEARS WILL THEN BLAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM. THIS BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MIZ047-048-053-060300- /O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140106T0900Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0001.140106T1200Z-140108T0600Z/ MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW 1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. * 36 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 14 INCHES. * NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. * WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO. IMPACTS... * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS. * VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY AFFECTING WEST-EAST ORIENTED ROADS. * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE FROST BITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ049-054-055-060>063-060300- /O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140106T0900Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0001.140106T1200Z-140108T0600Z/ HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO... FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON 1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT TO 6 TO 10 INCHES. * 36 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES. * NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. * WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO. IMPACTS... * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS. * VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY AFFECTING WEST-EAST ORIENTED ROADS. * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE FROST BITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ068>070-075-060300- /O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140106T0900Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0001.140106T1200Z-140108T0600Z/ LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR 1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT TO 6 TO 10 INCHES. * 36 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES. * NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. * WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO. IMPACTS... * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS. * VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY AFFECTING WEST-EAST ORIENTED ROADS. * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE FROST BITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ MIZ076-082-083-060300- /O.EXT.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140106T0900Z/ /O.CON.KDTX.WC.W.0001.140106T1200Z-140108T0600Z/ WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE 1122 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AMOUNT TO 5 TO 9 INCHES. * 36 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 INCHES. * NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. * WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO. IMPACTS... * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS. * VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...PARTICULARLY AFFECTING WEST-EAST ORIENTED ROADS. * EXPOSURE TO SUCH BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE FROST BITE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ hr. Toledo "hourly forecast":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/hourly-forecast.html from 3:00 p.m. today to 2:00 p.m. Monday, issued by the Cleveland NWS: table{width:500px}. |*Time*|*Temp*|*Wind*|*Wind Chill*| |3:00 pm|32 F|NE 7 mph|25 F| |4:00 pm|32 F|NE 8 mph|24 F| |5:00 pm|31 F|NNE 9 mph|23 F| |6:00 pm|30 F|NNE 10 mph|22 F| |7:00 pm|29 F|N 11 mph|20 F| |8:00 pm|28 F|N 15 mph|17 F| |9:00 pm|27 F|NNW 17 mph|14 F| |10:00 pm|26 F|NW 20 mph|12 F| |11:00 pm|25 F|NW 22 mph|10 F| |12:00 am|23 F|NW 22 mph|8 F| |1:00 am|22 F|WNW 22 mph|6 F| |2:00 am|20 F|WNW 21 mph|4 F| |3:00 am|17 F|W 18 mph|1 F| |4:00 am|15 F|W 17 mph|-2 F| |5:00 am|11 F|W 16 mph|-5 F| |6:00 am|8 F|W 16 mph|-10 F| |7:00 am|5 F|W 16 mph|-14 F| |8:00 am|4 F|W 17 mph|-15 F| |9:00 am|4 F|W 18 mph|-16 F| |10:00 am|3 F|W 20 mph|-18 F| |11:00 am|3 F|W 21 mph|-19 F| |12:00 pm|2 F|W 22 mph|-20 F| |1:00 pm|1 F|W 23 mph|-21 F| |2:00 pm|1 F|W 23 mph|-22 F| br. Toledo air temps, not wind chills, are "expected":http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=digital&textField1=41.59241&textField2=-83.80838&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0 to be below zero by dinner time on Monday. * 5:00 pm : -4 * 8:00 pm : -10 * 11:00 pm : -12 Dropping to around -15 at daybreak on Tuesday with wind chill temps around -40. hr. short term forecast national weather service cleveland oh 252 pm est sun jan 5 2014 ohz003-006-052045- wood oh-lucas oh- 252 pm est sun jan 5 2014 .now... heavier snow will be moving into the area through 5pm. locations that will be affected include bowling green... custar...sylvania...toledo and waterville. snowfall rates of inch an hour are expected through 5pm. untreated roads will become snow covered and slick in spots. drive with caution and allow extra time to reach your destination. $$ thompson hr. Storm Prediction Center issued a new "mesoscale discussion":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/mesoscale0006.html at 3:49 pm EST about the heavy snow that includes some of the Toledo area. !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd0006.gif! q. concerning heavy snow for scntrl through ecntrl il...cntrl and nrn ind...nwrn oh and srn lower mi bands of moderate to heavy snow will develop newd through scntrl and ecntrl il...cntrl and nrn ind...nwrn oh and srn lower mi into early evening. snowfall rates may locally exceed 1 inch per hour within the heavier snow bands. q.. hr. fxus63 kiwx 052329 afdiwx area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana 629 pm est sun jan 5 2014 synopsis... issued at 520 am est sun jan 5 2014 a strong system will bring heavy snow to the area today and into this evening. amounts of 8 to 16 inches are possible. a winter storm warning is in effect through this evening. extremely cold arctic air will move in behind the system through early next week with wind chills of around 40 below zero sunday night into tuesday. a wind chill warning is in effect for this period. low temperatures tonight will crash to between 5 below zero and 18 below zero by daybreak monday. && short term...(this evening through monday) issued at 350 pm est sun jan 5 2014 height of historic winter storm now well underway across the region at press time. culmination of factors supporting widespread accumulations of 10-16 inches. coupled upper level jet streaks favoring effective divergence aloft with southern branch strengthening to 170+ kts overnight and showing a great deal of cyclonic curvature. low to midlevel fgen/deformation response is superb and the track of the surface low is nearly ideal for a long duration of heavy snow in our cwa. water vapor loop shows polar vortex phasing with potent southern stream pv anomaly and rapidly becoming negatively tilted. this is not only supporting rapid deepening of the surface cyclone but also pulling it a bit to the left as previously discussed. this has allowed surface temperatures to climb to around 32f and with warmer profiles aloft...caused snow ratios to be only around 10:1 for our central and southeast counties. this has been one potential limiting factor but has been more than made up for with impressive qpf totals. moisture convergence is excellent with 280k mixing ratios approaching 4 g/kg. elevated instability above roughly 600mb is also aiding highly efficient uvm and bands of heavy snowfall are clearly evident on radar. snowfall rates have exceeded 2"/hr in these bands. expect status quo to continue for another 4-6 hours and with accumulations already exceeding 8 inches in some spots...a few storm totals in excess of 16 inches may be possible by later tonight. cyclone will lift rapidly northeast by 03z though and expect most of the synoptic snow to wind down shortly thereafter. one of the biggest questions regarding this storm has been the potential for blizzard conditions. explosive cyclogenesis now underway will lead to a very strong isallobaric component to the wind by later this evening. coupled with a tight gradient and relatively deep mixing heights...this will lead to a brief period of 30-35 mph gusts while new snow is still falling this evening. this will lead to near blizzard conditions with widespread blowing and drifting snow. visibility requirement of less than a quarter mile for three consecutive hours is extremely tough to get in this part of the country though and only one upstream station (kcmi) has reported such a low visibility. after further collaboration with neighboring offices...decided to hold off on a blizzard warning unless new observational evidence suggests otherwise this evening. significant impacts will continue through the overnight and into tomorrow. modest lake response expected given strong instability and lingering synoptic moisture. winds will quickly back to a westerly direction this evening and the bulk of the additional accumulation overnight and into tomorrow will be mainly confined north of the toll road. increasing dry air advection and low snow ratios will limit additional accumulations to around 2-4 inches. biggest hazard will be the dangerously cold temperatures/wind chills. still expecting lows to plummet into the mid teens below zero by late tonight with no diurnal recovery tomorrow in the face of strong caa. wind speeds of 20-30 mph will generate wind chill temperatures of around -40f. no changes to wind chill warning necessary. && long term...(monday night through sunday) issued at 350 pm est sun jan 5 2014 historic/potentially life-threatening cold will give way to significant warming by end of the week. only minor changes made given ongoing winter storm. period will start with the much advertised core of arctic air overhead as lows still on target to drop to 15 to 20 below with wind chills of 30 to 45 below into mid morning tuesday. in addition extreme instability will be ongoing over the lake as delta t's all the way to 700 mb top out around 30 c with inversion hgts around 8000 ft. light to moderate snow should be occurring but general westerly flow will keep most snow confined to far southern lower michigan. have increased pops into cat range across n berrien county in most favorable area and nudged up accums a touch. one more bitter cold day in store for tuesday although some areas will be a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer than monday. nevertheless..only locations along the lake will see temps climb above zero. winds will still be in the 10 to 20 mph range will result in widespread drifting...but actual blowing snow/reduced vsbys will probably be isolated. for now will leave out of grids for both monday night and tuesday. center of polar vortex will retreat north to east of hudson bay allowing hgts to increase and the start of a warmup which looks to last through the long term period. this will bring challenges of its own as active flow continues with several waves moving in for chances for snow or eventually a mixed bag. in addition to precip chances temps should rise to above freezing for highs fri-sun into the 30s. euro guidance continues to point towards highs in the 40s and mex now trying follow suit. while not impossible...amount of snowpack across the area will likely limit full potential...especially friday with best chance for 40s possibly by sunday. the increasing temps will cause a release of the snowpack and will result in rising river levels and increased concerns for both river and low lying flooding. have generally kept forecast as is through this time frame with timing/track of each wave likely to vary over the next several days. for now with so many other details in the hwo...will hold off on mention in hwo as duration of release could be over a long enough period to keep risks minimized. && aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z monday evening) issued at 627 pm est sun jan 5 2014 intense commahead deformation zone conts acrs nrn in this evening w/heavy snow in most locations including the terminals. lifr conds in heavy snow will cont through approx 02z bfr diminishing rapidly through 06z. deformation band just now exiting east of ksbn but rapid upstream dvlpmnt of intense lk enhanced band will swing into ksbn vcnty twd 02-03z but will await evolution nxt few hours and reaccess. hwvr winds ramp exponentially with gusts to 35kts likely based on upstream obs and shld yield a prolonged pd of blsn overnight which shld improve some mon am. && iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...winter storm warning until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. wind chill warning from 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday to 8 pm est /7 pm cst/ tuesday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027- 032>034. mi...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for miz077>081. wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for miz077>081. oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025. wind chill warning from 1 am monday to 8 pm est tuesday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. lm...heavy freezing spray warning until 4 am est tuesday for lmz043- 046. gale warning until 4 am est tuesday for lmz043-046. && $$ synopsis...lashley short term...agd long term...fisher aviation...t visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx (all lower case) follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at: www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.northernin.gov www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana hr. I shoveled snow from 9:45 pm to Midnight. Temps were around 25 when I started and 20 degrees when I ended. I'm also glad that I completed this on Sunday night. The blowing snow will create some additional work on Monday, but it will be nothing like the chore on Sunday night. The snow was 8 to 9 inches deep, and it was heavy. It snowed hard for much of the time that I was outside. Another 2.5 to 3.0 inches of snow fell between 8:00 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. Total snowfall for Sun, Jan 5, 2014 that I measured was 8.5 to 9.0 inches. The snow ended around 11:00 to 11:30 p.m. The winds increased, creating at times large clouds of blowing snow that rolled across the landscape. It will probably be tough in the rural areas west and north of Toledo. I've got some big walls of snow piled along the sidewalks and driveway and along my shoveled paths through the backyard to the bird feeding areas. This has to be approaching the most snow that I've seen in the Toledo area during my time that I've lived in northwest Ohio. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending upon your viewpoint), the weather warms up later this week, fouling things up. High temps are forecast to be 35 to 40 degrees each day from Friday through next Monday. hr.