Jan 5-7, 2014 Weather #weather - #toledo fxus61 kcle 051544 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1044 am est sun jan 5 2014 synopsis... low pressure over the lower mississippi valley will strengthen and move northeast across the area this evening. arctic high pressure will drop southeast out of central canada monday and cover much of the central and southeastern states by tuesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... significant changes were made to hourly temperatures and consequently precip type...wind chills and snow accumulation through the next 24 to 36 hours. warm air is mixing in across the east with a period of rain likely as precip moves in this afternoon and this evening. no change to the "big picture" however with very cold air...snow and blowing snow as well as dangerously low wind chills moving in overnight. original...currently low pressure center in central arkansas with the arctic boundary into central lower michigan. light snow is just now reaching into nw oh. forecast question of the day what will be the track and timing of the low. used the gfs solution since gfs and ecmwf very close. both models have the low reaching central ohio toward 00z. that will allow a warm surge across ne oh/nw pa this afternoon so that any precipitation this afternoon will probably start as a period of rain. with dew points in the teens and 20s evaporational cooling will help transition precip to snow by late afternoon. heaviest snows will be from late afternoon through the evening hours when the low tracks across ne oh and nw pa. low forecast to reach eastern lake erie toward midnight local. expect 4 to 8 inches of snow across nw oh today...while in the east 1 to locally 3 inches...depending on how long it takes to change over to all snow. fyi...winter storm headlines will imply/contain any wind chill warning criteria so both headlines will not exist at the same time and place. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... little change in the short term forecast. arctic front moves through sunday night plunging the area into the deep freeze. expect falling temperatures during the day monday. temperatures will plunge to -10 to -20 degrees monday night...with wind chill values of -35 to -40f. the last wind chill warning issued by this office was 16 january 2009. synoptic snow will end most locations by monday...however lake effect across the snowbelt is expected to continue into wednesday. && long term /wednesday through saturday/... temperatures will will slowly moderate through sunday. highs are on track to break 40 degrees in a few spots as early as friday...but the guidance could be a bit on the high side given the amount of snow that will be on the ground. so there will be a better chance of breaking 40 saturday and sunday. the next chance for precip remains thursday into friday...at least according to the gfs...which brings a weak low pressure center up the spine of an inverted trough towards ohio. the ecmwf does not jump on this feature and instead indicates a low pressure system will develop over the dakotas and spread precip across ohio for the first half of the weekend. with overnight lows progged to be around freezing...rain could switch over to snow or a wintry mix after sunset. && aviation /12z sunday through thursday/... snow is increasing in intensity and coverage along a stalled cold front to the west of toledo near the ohio/indiana border. so far no restrictions to visibility at tol and fdy despite intermittent snow showers. by early morning the snow pushes east and will fill in across northern ohio...leading to ifr restrictions for most of the day. considerable accumulation of snow is expected...especially at toledo. eastern sites will likely see less snow as rain mixes in and the front accelerates east. approaching midnight the wind begins to gust to 25 to 30 knots from the west behind the front...causing blowing and drifting snow. outlook...occasional non vfr in lake effect snow across ne ohio and nw pa for monday and tuesday. more non vfr possible wednesday. && marine... as low pressure clears northern ohio and tracks towards the northeast the wind will wrap around from the southwest...becoming gusty by early monday morning. by mid-morning the wind will be gale force over the lake. combined with frigid cold temperatures...freezing spray will accumulate on objects on or near the lake. upgrades to the gale and freezing spray watches will be considered in the short term. by wednesday the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles in across the southeastern u.s. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est wednesday for ohz011>014-089. winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 5 pm est monday for ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047. wind chill warning from 5 pm monday to 9 am est wednesday for ohz020>023-029>033-037-038-047. winter storm warning until 4 am est monday for ohz003-006>010- 017>019-027-028-036. wind chill warning from 4 am monday to 9 am est wednesday for ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036. pa...winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am est wednesday for paz001>003. marine...gale watch from late tonight through tuesday evening for lez061-142>149-162>169. heavy freezing spray watch from late tonight through tuesday evening for lez061-144>149-164>169. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...djb/tk short term...djb long term...mayers aviation...mayers marine...mayers hr. http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/mesoscale0004.html !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd0004.gif!