Toledo forecasts issued on Wed, Jan 22, 2014 Solid, old-fashioned, cold and somewhat snowy, winter weather pattern continues for at least seven more days. From the "Forecast.io page":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecastio.html at ToledoWX at around 1:45 p.m. EST, on Jan 22, 2014: !http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7406/12090117774_e7fab7e8bb_o.png! hr. Clev NWS "forecast":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast.html for Toledo: Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jan 22, 2014 12:42 pm This Afternoon: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 14. Wind chill values as low as -3. South wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -12. South wind 6 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 14. Wind chill values as low as -12. Northwest wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -24. West wind 8 to 16 mph. Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 16. Windy, with a southwest wind 16 to 21 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph in the afternoon. Friday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1. Breezy. Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 2. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 12. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around -4. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. page created: Jan 22, 2014 - 1:45 p.m. EST hr. fxus61 kcle 221751 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1251 pm est wed jan 22 2014 synopsis... arctic high pressure will move across the ohio valley today...then move off the southeast coast tonight. this will allow a clipper system to move across the area overnight. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... a few light snow showers remain...mainly over lake county...and will continue to slowly spread northeast up the shoreline ahead of the building ridge into this evening. we may even see this band start to increase in strength as the system moisture arrives this evening. snow can bee seen approaching from the west but still expect it take until at least 4-5 pm for anything to start reaching the ground in nw ohio. the wind chill advisory was cancelled this morning but we may be close to needing another one across western portions of the area tonight. original discussion... with most locations between zero to -5f left the wind chill advisory going for this morning even though the winds are marginal. but even after the advisory expires...wind chill temps will still remain below zero over most of the area. high pressure...now over the mid mississippi valley...will move into the ohio valley by daybreak cutting off the scattered light snow off lake huron. left chance of flurries over the central and eastern lake shore counties for this morning. high pressure will move quickly east allowing next clipper system to move into the central great lakes this afternoon. expect snow to move into nw ohio late afternoon or early evening. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... little change in the short term as long wave trough will remain over the great lakes allowing a series of clippers to move across the area. models in reasonably good agreement on the track and timing of the first clipper due tonight. models move low into nw ohio toward midnight local...then across northern ohio into nw pa overnight. expect a quick inch or two from the clipper overnight with some lingering lake enhanced snow showers in the east lingering into thursday. another break on friday as high pressure moves across the tennessee valley. models continue to be in good agreement with another shot of arctic air due on saturday...with the 850mb temps plunging to minus 24c by daybreak sunday. && long term /sunday through tuesday/... upper level pattern keeps upper level trough holding tight over the eastern united states through this entire extended period. another shortwave trough will dig into the eastern states by tuesday morning and this will help to re-amplify the ridge along the west coast. as of right now...there does not appear to be any relief in sight for an end to this cold weather pattern that we have seen so far. a look at the overall upper level pattern over the northern hemisphere indicates flow will become more zonal in very broad trough over the entire united states by next weekend. the trend indicates another ridge will build along the west coast and this will only help to deepen the trough once again for the eastern united states. another issue at hand is high pressure is expected to develop just north of the bering sea and drift toward the north pole. lets hope this long resident high does not get caught up in the mean flow and head our way. it will have plenty of time to build up an extremely cold air mass. keep that wood pile stocked...we may be in for the long haul. models indicate low pressure will move east across the forecast area on sunday and bring with it another round of snow to the forecast area. following the low will be another surge of arctic air that will push into monday and tuesday. yet another low pressure system will race in behind the initial low pressure system and affect the area by wednesday. i will keep a mention of snow showers each day for the extended period. i probably could go with likely pops for sunday but will just keep it chance for now until we get a better look at the exact track of the low and moisture support associated with the storm system. as mentioned above...cold air will return for monday and tuesday as low pressure exits to the east. 850 mb temperatures plummet to -20 to -22 c across the area bringing in strong cold air advection. warmer air starts to return again tuesday night into wednesday ahead of the next low pressure system. && aviation /18z wednesday through monday/... clouds moisture and snow moving into the area from the northwest this afternoon ahead of another clipper system dropping through the great lakes region. core of the moisture will pass to the south but the low will draw it back across the area thursday. in short having a tough time finding an end to the snow with the system through 18z thursday at least. across the east in the sun...convective cu developing mvfr cigs around bkn025. will go with conditions dropping to mvfr toledo and fdy by 20z with mvfr conditions (other than the cu) moving east to kcle after 00z. otherwise after system moves in expect widespread mvfr and scattered ifr through the balance of the period. outlook...non vfr thursday night...then saturday through monday. && marine... winds will be on the increase through the next couple days as high pressure moves by to the south and low pressure moves east across the great lakes region with associated cold front. expecting winds to develop from the southwest friday into friday night and become strong enough to support gale force winds. winds will drop off for a period during cold frontal passage on saturday morning and then increase again to gales after frontal passage. so...will go ahead and hoist a gale watch for friday afternoon into saturday. winds should diminish saturday night below gale force and remain that way through sunday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...gale watch from friday afternoon through saturday evening for lez061-142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...djb/kec short term...djb long term...lombardy aviation...tk marine...lombardy #toledo - #weather