Toledo forecasts issued on Fri, Jan 24, 2014 urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 325 am est fri jan 24 2014 ohz003-006-008-017-018-027>031-036>038-047-241630- /o.upg.kcle.ws.a.0002.140125t0000z-140125t2100z/ /o.new.kcle.ww.y.0005.140124t1800z-140126t0300z/ /o.ext.kcle.wc.y.0004.000000t0000z-140124t1800z/ lucas-wood-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-crawford-richland- ashland-wayne-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...fremont... findlay...tiffin...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield... ashland...wooster...marion...mount gilead...millersburg... mount vernon 325 am est fri jan 24 2014 ...wind chill advisory now in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon... ...winter weather advisory in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est saturday... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow which is in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est saturday. the winter storm watch is no longer in effect. * wind chill readings...10 to 24 degrees below zero. * timing...low winds chills until 1 pm today. blowing snow this afternoon then snow and blowing snow tonight into saturday evening. * winds...increasing to 20 to 30 mph today with gusts of 35 to 40 mph then continuing tonight with a little decrease for saturday. * accumulations...accumulating snow is expected tonight through late saturday. accumulation by saturday evening is expected to range from 2 to 5 inches. * visibilities...visibilities this afternoon into saturday evening may be reduced to a quarter mile at times in snow and blowing snow. * temperatures...rising from around zero early this morning to the teens this afternoon then holding nearly steady tonight. * impacts...hypothermia can occur rapidly in those unprepared for the cold. exposed skin will be susceptible to frostbite. the combination of snow and blowing snow will have the potential to significantly impact travel conditions across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. precautionary/preparedness actions... a wind chill advisory is issued when the wind combines with the temperature to make it feel like it is 10 degrees below zero or colder for several hours or more. if you will be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed skin is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged exposure to the cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or updates. a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of winter weather conditions such as light snow, blowing snow, sleet, freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be significant, the word advisory implies that severe winter weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. && $$ hazardous weather outlook hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 400 am est fri jan 24 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-250900- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 400 am est fri jan 24 2014 ...wind chill advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon... ...winter weather advisory in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est saturday... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. wind chill advisory. winter weather advisory. .days two through seven...saturday through thursday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter weather advisory. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jan 24, 2014 6:29 am Today: Areas of blowing snow after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -19. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Tonight: Areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 9pm, then snow showers likely between 9pm and 10pm, then snow showers with areas of blowing snow after 10pm. Low around 15. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday: Snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow before 9am, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -3. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Night: Areas of blowing snow before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -15. Southwest wind 13 to 16 mph. Sunday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Southwest wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 8. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -10. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 4. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 12. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%. hr. fxus61 kcle 241137 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 637 am est fri jan 24 2014 synopsis... a series of clipper lows will move across the great lakes through early monday then high pressure will push up the ohio valley tuesday and wednesday. && near term /through tonight/... a few patches of low clouds continue to move quickly east across the cleveland and mansfield areas. this cloud deck will be very brief and hit akron canton...youngstown...and erie pa in the next hour or so. otherwise...skies will remain clear for a few hours and then some high clouds will begin to spread in from the northwest. winds will be on the increase today causing any existing snow to blow around and drift. some light snow will spread into the extreme northwest this afternoon. previous discussion... drier air moving in at lower levels from the west should end any remaining lake effect this morning. warm advection will be occurring today which should be able to drive temps all the way up into the mid teens. these sweltering temps should be just warm enough to allow the wind chill advisory to end around noon. the winds will be on the increase today and may be gusting 35 to 40 mph later today and tonight. blowing and drifting snow will thus become a problem for motorists. based on snowfall amounts mentioned below would prefer to go with a winter wx advisory from this afternoon thru 10 pm sat evening for the snow and blsn. && short term /saturday through sunday night/... the next in an endless series of clipper will move thru the eastern lakes late tonight and sat. snow accumulation looks to run about 2 to 4 inches west and 4 to 6 inches east with maybe another inch or two of lake effect in the snowbelt late sat and sat night. the lake effect could be more if the strong winds today thru sat break up and shift ice on leri to open up more exposed water than expected. conditions only briefly calm down early sun for a few hours before snow from the next clipper is expected to spread back into the area. accumulation with this clipper look to be lighter with maybe 1 to 3 inches occurring. successive pushes of reinforcing arctic air will move in in the wake of each clipper. && long term /monday through thursday/... yet another digging upper level 500 mb trough will move into the eastern united states with another surge of arctic air. this pattern has been brutal and it does not look like there will be any relief in sight for some time. european model indicates this shot of arctic expected monday into tuesday will dive south across the forecast area...lift northeast to nova scotia and then move back west across central ontario canada and then move back south over us again by weeks end. talk about a one two punch. but that remains to be seen and if that does happen...it appears the air mass will have a chance to moderate over the east coast a bit. a look at the hemispheric loop of the air masses drifting around the north pole indicates there is a lot of wobble in the polar jet stream. in other words...these cold air out breaks are affecting all of the countries in the northern hemisphere. low pressure is progged to move east across the forecast area monday with a trailing cold front. or should i say bitterly cold arctic front. this may be some of the coldest air we have seen all winter so far as flow comes right out of the north pole. we have already seen snowy owls south of lake erie. the polar bears may become snow birds and head south too because it is too cold up north. as arctic air moves into the region...enough moisture will be present for some snow across the entire forecast area. this will transition into some lake effect snow across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. as we saw last night...there is still quite a bit of moisture flux taking place through the cracks in the ice on lake erie to produce lake effect snow. albeit some moisture enhancement from the upstream lakes also helps in this process as well. the flow will shift from a westerly fetch monday to more of west southwest fetch by tuesday. this should help to concentrate the lake effect snow bands over the northeast through this period. the snow should finally begin to let up tuesday afternoon into tuesday night as large high pressure builds over texas and moves northeast toward the area. this is in response to upper level ridge over the western united states flattening out and ejecting east coast trough out toward the ocean. as high pressure builds northeast...we should start to see some minor relief from the bitter cold to a slightly warmer trend but not above freezing for any time soon. && aviation /12z friday through tuesday/... a few patches of low clouds continue to move quickly east across the cleveland and mansfield areas. this cloud deck will be very brief and hit akron canton...youngstown...and erie pa in the next hour or so. otherwise...skies will remain clear for a few hours and then some high clouds will begin to spread in from the northwest. so...expecting vfr through the morning hours until the winds increase later this afternoon. winds will be on the increase today causing any existing snow to blow around and drift. the blowing and drifting of the snow will cause visibilities to drop to mvfr today and continue into tonight. snowfall will also become a problem with the blowing snow helping to reduce the visibilities down to ifr at times. some light snow will begin spread into the extreme northwest this afternoon and then spread across the region as the day progresses in association with the next low pressure system. outlook...non vfr through monday night in periods of moderate snow along with blowing snow. && marine... gale warning will be posted from about 3 pm this afternoon through about 7 am saturday morning. winds appear they will be marginal at 35 knots on lake erie for gales so to remain collaborated with buffalo and our friends in toronto...will hoist the warning. winds diminish on saturday below gales and remain that way through sunday. expecting the low pressure system to move east across the southern great lakes and this will likely cause winds to increase once again and reach potential gale force sunday night into monday morning as fairly strong low level jet moves over the lake. winds die down fairly quickly with low passage monday and become westerly and below gales by afternoon. diminishing west to southwest flow expected into tuesday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est saturday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089. wind chill advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for ohz003- 006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. pa...winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est saturday for paz001>003. wind chill advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for paz001>003. marine...gale warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 7 am est saturday for lez061-142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...adams near term...lombardy/adams short term...adams long term...lombardy aviation...lombardy marine...lombardy hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 124 pm est fri jan 24 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-250230- /o.con.kcle.ww.y.0005.000000t0000z-140126t0300z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage- trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning- marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie- southern erie-crawford pa- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon... jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron... ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield... ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead... millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro... meadville 124 pm est fri jan 24 2014 ...winter weather advisory remains in effect until 10 pm est saturday... * wind chills between -5 and -15 for this afternoon and into tonight. * timing...accumulating snow will move into northwest ohio late this evening...then move over the entire forecast area overnight. * winds...southwest winds 20 to 30 mph today with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. * accumulations...accumulating snow is expected tonight through saturday afternoon with some lake effect snow showers likely saturday night in the snowbelt. accumulation by saturday evening is expected to range from 4 to 6 inches in the east to 3 to 5 inches across northwest ohio. * visibilities...visibilities this afternoon into saturday evening may be reduced to a quarter mile at times in snow and blowing snow. * temperatures...single digits into the lower teens. * impacts...hypothermia can occur rapidly in those unprepared for the cold. exposed skin will be susceptible to frostbite. the combination of snow and blowing snow will have the potential to significantly impact travel conditions across northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. precautionary/preparedness actions... if you will be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly... making sure that all exposed skin is covered. if possible...avoid prolonged exposure to the cold to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or updates. the combination of snow and blowing and drifting snow can quickly reduce visibilities to a quarter mile of less at times. if you must travel tonight and saturday remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or the local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings. && $$ hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jan 24, 2014 5:06 pm Tonight: Areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers before 9pm, then snow showers with areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Temperature rising to around 19 by 5am. Wind chill values as low as -9. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday: Snow showers with areas of blowing snow before 8am, then snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow between 8am and noon, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow showers after noon. Temperature falling to around 9 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -9. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -19. West wind 14 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday: Snow showers, mainly after 7am. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as -19. Southwest wind 13 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 8. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -10. Tuesday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 1. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -8. Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 9. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 3. Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 21. hr. fxus61 kcle 250005 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 705 pm est fri jan 24 2014 synopsis... a cold front will move across the area saturday. this will be followed by a clipper system that will move across the great lakes sunday. the clipper will drag another arctic front across the area sunday night. && near term /until 6 am saturday morning/... little change from previous forecast. cold front across the upper lakes will move into southeast lower michigan overnight...then across the entire forecast area saturday. snow will spread into northwest ohio late this evening and then spread over the entire area overnight. widespread 2-3 inches expected overnight. this combined with southwest winds gusting upwards of 40 mph will create problems with blowing and drifting snow. with a strong southwest flow and the cloud cover temps will not drop significantly overnight. in fact all indications are that they will rise around a handful of degrees overnight...therefore made this adjustment to temps with this early update. wind chills will still be below zero with the strong winds. && short term /6 am saturday morning through sunday night/... models in good agreement with the cold front moving across the forecast area saturday morning. except for the snowbelt snow will gradually taper of from the west saturday afternoon. high temp for saturday will be in the morning...with falling temps during the afternoon. total snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches northwest ohio and 4 to 6 inches elsewhere looks reasonable. an additional inch or two of lake effect in the snowbelt are possible saturday night. the lake effect could be more if the strong winds today thru sat break up and shift ice on lakes erie to open up more exposed water than expected. brief respite before the next clipper moves across the area on sunday with widespread accumulations of maybe 1 to 3 inches. the next arctic blast will follow sunday night as arctic front pushes across the area. && long term /monday through friday/... the upper level pattern remains unchanged throughout the extended forecast. the gfs and ec solutions depict stubborn deep layer troughing parked over the the eastern half of the united states. temperatures will generally run well below normal as long as this pattern remains in place. the pacific north american pattern ensemble mean outlook trending negative through the rest of the month suggests the pattern will slowly break in early february...but until then...low temps tuesday night will dip to ten degrees below zero in spots...especially in the southwest corner of the cwa where there will be less cloud cover. the gfs is a bit more optimistic than the european and attempts to briefly break down the trough and pull it back into the canadian interior by wednesday night in a weakened state. the ecmwf...on the other hand...develops an upper level low upstream of the primary longwave axis by friday morning...which reinforces the southern extent of the parent trough across northern ohio. friday high temps moderate into the low to mid twenties as the wind shifts from the south. this is still almost ten degrees below normal for this time of year. && aviation /00z sunday through wednesday/... a clipper system will cross the area on saturday. in the meantime the winds will gust to between 30 and 35 knots but decrease just a little late tonight. snow will develop from the northwest this evening. it should be snowing over the entire forecast area by 06z/1 am est. with the wind the visibility should be under a mile in the snow. once the front associated with the clipper moves through conditions should improve to mvfr with some light snow and continued blowing and drifting snow. outlook...non vfr mainly in the snow belt saturday night. non vfr redeveloping over the entire area sunday and continuing into monday. non vfr mainly in the snow belt monday night into tuesday. && marine... a gale warning is in effect from 3 pm this afternoon through 7 am saturday morning. the wind will peak around 9 to 10 pm friday night then begin to decrease through the early morning on saturday. the wind will be marginally gale fore by sunrise saturday...but still gusty. while most of lake erie is ice covered...there is a large section of thinner ice north of erie county in ohio that could break up and create large drifting ice floes. backed off from another gale scenario sunday night into monday based on latest nam guidance...but it is still entirely possible with mixing heights of 6.5k feet tapping into 50 knots of flow aloft. the winds will decrease fairly quickly with low passage monday and become westerly by afternoon. diminishing west to southwest flow is expected into tuesday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter weather advisory until 10 pm est saturday for ohz003- 006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. pa...winter weather advisory until 10 pm est saturday for paz001>003. marine...gale warning until 7 am est saturday for lez061-142>149- 162>169. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...djb/oudeman short term...djb long term...mayers aviation...kieltyka marine...mayers #toledo - #weather