Toledo weather - Thu, Jan 30, 2014 Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jan 30, 2014 12:24 am Overnight: Clear, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -8. South wind around 11 mph. Thursday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -11. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 21 mph. Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 9pm and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Friday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Night: Snow likely before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 22. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 6. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%. hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 1010 pm est wed jan 29 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-301115- /o.con.kcle.wc.y.0009.000000t0000z-140130t1400z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage- trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning- marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie- southern erie-crawford pa- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon... jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron... ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield... ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead... millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro... meadville 1010 pm est wed jan 29 2014 ...wind chill advisory remains in effect until 9 am est thursday... * wind chill readings...will dip to -10 to -15 degrees after midnight. some portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania may see wind chills as low as -20 degrees. * winds...southwest winds will range from 5 to 10 mph overnight. portions of northwest ohio and areas near the lakeshore will see winds increase overnight to 10 to 20 mph. * temperatures...overnight temperatures will fall to around 5 degrees in northwest ohio...with temperatures as low as -3 degrees in inland northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. * impacts...frostbite can occur on exposed skin with prolonged exposure to the cold. precautionary/preparedness actions... if you will be outdoors use common sense and dress warmly... making sure that all exposed skin is covered. avoid prolonged exposure to the cold...if possible... to prevent frostbite and hypothermia. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or updates. hr. fxus61 kcle 300415 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1115 pm est wed jan 29 2014 synopsis... high pressure over the ohio valley will move off the east coast thursday. a cold front will move southeast across the area friday and stall in the vicinity. a wave of low pressure will move along the front across the forecast area saturday. && near term /until 6 am thursday morning/... lowered wind speeds a little more for the early part of tonight with many locations in the 5 to 10 mph range this evening. the surface high will build to the east overnight which will result in winds starting to come back up after 1 or 2 am...especially in the west and along the lakeshore. given the lighter winds in the east...tweaked lows down a degree or two. depending on the wind speeds...the wind chill advisory may be marginal in northwest ohio with wind chill values only falling to around -10 degrees. elsewhere wind chill values will overnight to -10 to -15 degrees with some portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania dipping as low as -20 degrees. temperatures will recover into the mid 20s through the day on thursday...bringing some welcomed relief from the cold. previous discussion...have issued a wind chill advisory for tonight. lowered overnight forecast a few few degrees judging from temps upstream. met was over forecasting temps last night by an average of 5+ degrees and believe that it is doing the same for tonights forecast. currently wind chills hovering around the zero to minus 5 degree range. do not expect winds to decouple overnight so wind chills should fall into the minus 10 to minus 15 degree range overnight. && short term /6 am thursday morning through saturday night/... brief warm up as high shifts east and area comes under s-sw flow. models in good agreement moving next cold front through the area thursday night into friday morning. pops significantly different between gfs and nam. gfs is forecasting 20-30 pops while nam 60-80 pops...nam seems more realistic so went likely pops thursday night with an inch or so accumulation. weekend forecast not so clear cut. all three models stall front near the cwa on friday...so will continue likely pops on friday. after that models diverge on track of the low pressure system that will track across ohio on saturday. both the ecmwf and nam track low across nw ohio late saturday. if this is indeed the case would see good warm up with snow in the morning changing to rain in the afternoon. gfs on the other hand tracks low across ne ohio which would lead to a colder and snowier forecast. for now went with continuity which was to split the difference. snow in the morning with rain across the south and a rain snow mix across the north during the afternoon. much uncertainty remains with qpf amounts on saturday as well. nam is the outlier with around an inch of qpf for the 12 hour period saturday...while ecmwf is around half that. for now will stay with ecmwf solution. && long term /sunday through wednesday/... since the ecmwf is slower with the low sat into sat night not sure if all the snow will have cleared the east part of the area by sun so may carry a small chance in the east to cover this. high pressure moves over the area sun night then hangs over the area thru mon night so will hold on to dry conditions. the models start to differ on tue and more so by wed so forecast becomes more uncertain. however...today's 12z of the ecmwf has trended more toward the gfs. splitting the difference in the models leads to an increasing chance for snow tue and a good chance tue night with a chance mainly in the east on wed. temps will trend back below normal early next week but not like the recent arctic outbreaks. && aviation /06z thursday through monday/... high pressure and dry stable airmass will continue overnight across nrn ohio and nwrn pa. expect vfr/clear skies to persist through much of thursday as well. do expect winds to increase quickly through the morning reaching sustained 15 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 30 kts from the ssw. a cold front will move into nwrn ohio after 00z so vfr conditions will come to an end thursday evening. brought in mvfr cigs and vsbys after 02z kfdy and ktol and brought to kcle by 04z. also added wind shear to ktol kfdy keri and kcle for the overnight/early morning. outlook...non vfr possible thursday evening/night through friday night in light snow and then in mixed precipitation saturday into saturday night. && marine... winds look to mainly run 20 to 30 knots into fri then diminish. a cold front will move into the lake during the day fri and stall until a low moves along the front near the lake sat and pulls the front se of the lake. winds should line up out of the nw sat night into sun but only at about 10 to 20 knots. high pressure moves over the lake sun night and mon to provide light and changeable winds. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...wind chill advisory until 9 am est thursday for ohz003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. pa...wind chill advisory until 9 am est thursday for paz001>003. marine...none. #toledo - #weather