Toledo Weather - Sat, Feb 8, 2014 Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Feb 8, 2014 6:05 am Today: A chance of snow, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -9. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Sunday: A chance of snow, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -6. West wind around 9 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 16. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 14. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. hr. fxus61 kcle 081146 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 646 am est sat feb 8 2014 synopsis... arctic high pressure over the ohio valley will move off the east coast today. this will allow a low pressure system to move across the area late saturday night into sunday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... no significant changes for 615 am update. original discussion... another chilly morning...but conditions remain just below wind chill advisory criteria. the center of the arctic high just to the west...the models continue to move the high across the forecast area today then off the east coast this evening. as the high shifts east of area this afternoon it opens the door for a chance of light snow late this afternoon. currently light snow into tennessee with a few flurries moving into western illinois. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... models a little slower with the weak low pressure system...holding it off until sunday morning now instead of saturday night. that said light snow will start this evening and move across the forecast area overnight with snowfall amounts around an inch. surge of moisture sunday with the low will likely produce another inch or two sunday...mainly in the morning. potential for some lake effect sunday night after the system moves through with a west flow and 850 mb temps around -16c. marginal conditions but could see another couple of inches in the snowbelt. below normal temperatures will continue into mid week another arctic high moves over the area monday night into tuesday. && long term /wednesday through friday/... generally a lower amplitude pattern progged by the models the second half of next week but the trough remains in the east with a flatter ridge out west. this opens the door for a series of short waves to cross the pacific northwest and zip across the country. this presents the models with a whole series of strength...timing... and tracking problems. wednesday should hang on to high pressure and the forecast will be dry with moderating temperatures. most of the models try to develop a surface low by thursday...most likely centered somewhere along the east coast or southeast coast...probably south and east of the local area. a cold front should cross the great lakes later in the week. i suspect that it will take until thursday night or friday to approach the area but the current forecast has a chance of snow on thursday and a cannot rule out a faster scenario...perhaps more of a phasing with the southeast system. will leave a chance of snow/snow showers in the forecast thursday through friday noting the low confidence in the timing. the moderating trend in temperatures will likely continue later next week and we could actually sneak near or above freezing thursday and/or friday depending on the timing of the next front. && aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/... first weak surge of warm advection clouds/overrunning spreading from the midwest across the forecast area this morning. we will mostly see an increase in mid clouds and then a ceiling develop between 045-065. cannot rule out a passing snow flurry/snow shower but will only mention it at kfdy this morning as we track a batch of light snow on the radar across indiana. the snow should evaporate as it comes east this morning. the next short wave will bring an increasing chance for light snow this evening into tonight and sunday morning from west to east across the area. eventually the ceilings and visibilities will likely drop to ifr as the steadier snow gets going. outlook...non vfr sunday into monday. && marine... the brisk southwest flow will gradually diminish today as high pressure builds east across the ohio valley. the eastern basin of the lake at the end of the fetch will hang on to 15 to 20 knots for a while today. the surface high pressure will be east of lake erie on sunday but the gradient will remain light until the next arctic high pressure area begins to spread east sunday night and monday. the next push of arctic air will not be as strong as recent systems and the wind should become light by tuesday. hr. Forecast.io Toledo hi and lo temp predictions as of 7:25 a.m. * today, Sat, Feb 8 : 18 and 3 * Sun, Feb 9 : 23 and 14 * Mon, Feb 10 : 17 and 3 * Tue, Feb 11 : 13 and -6 * Wed, Feb 12 : 22 and -2 * Thu, Feb 13 : 36 and 18 * Fri, Feb 14 : 33 and 16 * Sat, Feb 15 : 27 and 9 hr. short term forecast national weather service cleveland oh 824 am est sat feb 8 2014 ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-081445- wyandot oh-hancock oh-seneca oh-wood oh-lucas oh-ottawa oh- sandusky oh- 824 am est sat feb 8 2014 .now... light snow will be spreading into the area through 10am. snow accumulations will be less than a half an inch. locations that will be affected by the snow include bowling green... custar...elmore...findlay...fostoria...sylvania...tiffin...toledo and waterville. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 341 pm est sat feb 8 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-092045- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 341 pm est sat feb 8 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...this afternoon and tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. a couple of inches of snow may fall on sunday across the forecast area and then 1 to 3 inches of snow may fall in the snow belt sunday night into monday. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. fxus61 kcle 090007 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 707 pm est sat feb 8 2014 synopsis... high pressure over ohio will move east tonight as a cold front approaches the area and moves through on sunday. a ridge of high pressure will begin building in on tuesday. another weather system will affect the area late in the week. && near term /until 6 am sunday morning/... weak impulse is moving south of lake michigan this evening with lift spreading into nw ohio. this has caused snow to develop with visibilities dipping to under a 1/2 mile at times. at this point it appears that the snow will have a difficult time spreading eastward as it interacts with some drier air. have trimmed amounts east but around an inch looks reasonable across the west half of the area. previous discussion... several impulses will affect the region tonight with light snow. the first impulse will move through this evening. clouds should thicken in the east somewhat quickly this evening. the second impulse will arrive over northwest ohio very late tonight. there will be kind of a break in the snow later tonight between impulses. the snow in the eastern areas will be mainly early tonight. at this time going with an inch or less. lows are tough tonight with mild warm advection. used a blend of guidance. && short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/... the next stronger impulse/cold front will move through on sunday...the area will be in the left front quad of the jet. this may give 1 to 2.5 inches of snow. it will be somewhat of a quick shot of snow. some lake effect snow showers will develop sunday night and linger into monday. at this time a the northwest flow and the lake and 850 mb temperature difference near 16c only a few inches of snow. this will have to be watched. dry tuesday and tuesday night as a ridge is building in. temperatures for this period are tough...depending on how quickly the clouds clear and if the winds become light enough. && long term /wednesday through saturday/... upper level pattern is a changing. for the time being that is. models suggest upper level flow should become somewhat zonal from west to east across the lower 48 states. however a very broad trough will move east across the area wednesday into thursday with an associated positive vorticity maximum. however...feature is expected to be limited in moisture and will likely only bring clouds to the region. yet another potent little positive vorticity maximum and associated surface low pressure will race east into the region thursday night. this feature packs a bit of a punch with moisture and will spread some light snow into the forecast area thursday night into friday. unfortunately...the seasonable temperatures are not going to last very long because a digging trough will race into the area by the weekend and this will set the stage for a low pressure system to move east into the region and usher another shot of colder air back the region. upper level trough will become negatively tilted as it reaches the great lakes and really ramp up the positive vorticity advection. this results in fairly rapid cyclogenesis as low rounds the base of the trough into the lower great lakes on saturday and then lifts northeast. the low will bring even more snow to the region in the latter portions of the forecast period. temperatures will be on the upswing in the zonal flow to more seasonable levels for highs and lows but will drop back a bit by the end of the period in the cold air advection. && aviation /00z sunday through thursday/... one brief shot...3 or 4 hours...of snow for late evening. this will produce ifr in snow for northwest ohio...but will struggle to stay at that intensity level as this batch of snow shifts east into drier air. after that there will be a lull and ceilings may be variable between mvfr and vfr. next round of snow arrives for sunday morning...again working its way west to east during the morning and afternoon hours. this is looking to accumulate an inch or two and area will have a period of ifr. winds will be light/variable overnight...but develop a westerly direction sunday. outlook...non vfr sunday night into monday night especially in northeast ohio and nw pa. non vfr possible thursday. && marine... winds should be fairly light through tonight and then begin to increase a bit sunday night as high pressure moves off to the east. winds then diminish to light and variable by monday. this fairly light flow continues into tuesday with a slight increase by wednesday into thursday out of the south as high pressure moves off the east coast and weak low approaches from the west wednesday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...kieltyka near term...kieltyka/mullen short term...kieltyka long term...lombardy aviation...oudeman marine...lombardy #toledo - #weather