Toledo Weather - Sun, Feb 9, 2014 short term forecast national weather service cleveland oh 533 am est sun feb 9 2014 lez143-144-ohz003-006>011-017>021-027>031-091215- reno beach to the islands oh-the islands to vermilion oh-lucas- wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca-huron- medina-summit-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...findlay...tiffin... norwalk...medina...akron...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus... mansfield...ashland...wooster 533 am est sun feb 9 2014 .now... light to moderate snow will continue across northwest and north central ohio through the morning hours. snow accumulations of a half inch per hour are possible in the heavier snow bands. motorists should use caution as visibilities may quickly drop below 1 mile. hr. Feb 9, 2014 6:52 am Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist Temperature : 14 F Humidity : 88% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 30.05 in Dewpoint: 11 F Visibility : 1.50 statute miles (formerly Metcalf Airport) Feb 9, 2014 6:53 am Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist Temperature : 15 F Humidity : 84% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 30.07 in Dewpoint: 11 F Visibility : 0.75 statute miles (near Lambertville) Feb 9, 2014 7:15 am Weather : Light Snow Temperature : 18 F Humidity : 79% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 30.06 in Dewpoint: 12 F Visibility : 1.75 statute miles hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Feb 9, 2014 6:02 am Today: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 22. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind 7 to 9 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -3. Wind chill values as low as -12. West wind around 6 mph. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 14. Light and variable wind. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday: Cloudy, with a high near 28. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. hr. fxus61 kcle 091110 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 610 am est sun feb 9 2014 synopsis... a quick moving low pressure system will move across the area today dragging a cold front across the area. high pressure will move across the lower lakes tuesday...then move off the new england coast wednesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... speeded up timing of the second wave of snow over the area for the 630 update. original discussion... first wave of snow moved through as jet max moved east. next wave also associated with next little jet max just moving into western ohio. will spread across entire area this morning. expect a quick couple of inches this morning with the snow diminishing from the west during the afternoon hour. stayed close to mav temps for today. && short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/... left likely pops going in the snowbelt overnight as the 850 mb temps dip to -16 and secondary trough swinging across eastern lake erie overnight. but even with that...it is so dry and with lake frozen dont expect much more than an inch or two. tuesday and wednesday are dry but continued cold as another arctic high moves across the lower great lakes. models diverge significantly by wednesday night. gfs moves weak front through the area with coastal low off georgia coast. ecmwf on the other hand much slower with the front and has the coastal low off the mid atlantic coast by thursday morning. for now will just continue with the dry gfs forecast. && long term /thursday through saturday/... the extended forecast continues to vary from run to run and model to model. the flow is progged to become more zonal with relatively fast moving systems. heights are progged to rise slowly across much of the country and pacific air should gradually replace the arctic air but there remains a trough over the northeastern states through next weekend. the ecmwf is the only model deepening the surface low so quickly mid week. the other models continue to develop a surface low along the southeast coast with the impact more along the coast which is reasonable. it is likely that several clipper type low pressure systems will cross the great lakes late in the week. the next system would seem on track for thursday night into friday. another wave would be likely over the weekend but not sure what track it would take or the relative strength. will keep a chance of snow/snow showers next weekend. not much confidence in the temperature forecast which will still be somewhat below normal. there remains a wide range of possible temperatures late in the week depending on how much arctic air can hang on or how fast the moderating temperatures can move in. && aviation /12z sunday through thursday/... conditions improving as one impulse exits. some residual light lift may keep flurries going most of the night with only occasional dips into mvfr. kept the timing for the next impulse for the daytime sunday. this round has better moisture with it and will have ifr in snow for several hours as it works its way across the region. this is looking like it will accumulate a couple of inches. light/variable winds overnight will develop a westerly direction in the afternoon. snow exits for evening...but mvfr ceilings may linger...especially downwind of the lake. outlook...non vfr sunday night into monday night especially in northeast ohio and nw pa. non vfr possible thursday. && marine... the surface high is just east of lake erie and a light southeast to east flow will continue to veer to the south this morning. the gradient is quite light for the time being. a weak low pressure area will cross the lake midday and afternoon and winds will pick up a bit from the west behind the system. more arctic high pressure will build across the midwest and lower great lakes early in the week. winds will lighten back up by tuesday. we should see a wind shift back around from the south tuesday night into wednesday. a couple of clipper low pressure systems will cross the lakes later in the week. the models are not in agreement of the strength or track of the systems so hard to gauge how much wind we may have to deal with on lake erie just yet. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. hr. forecast.io hi-lo pred feb 9 : 23 and 12 feb 10 : 16 and 4 feb 11 : 12 and -4 feb 12 : 20 and -5 feb 13 : 35 and 12 feb 14 : 35 and 14 feb 15 : 24 and 9 feb 16 : 27 and 12 hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 840 am est sun feb 9 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-101345- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 840 am est sun feb 9 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. snow will be tapering off today except in the snow belt where lake effect snow showers will develop by this evening. total snowfall including last nights snow and todays snowfall will generally range from 2 to 4 inches. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. special weather statement national weather service cleveland oh 1001 am est sun feb 9 2014 ohz003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-037-091715- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot- crawford-marion-morrow- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...marion...mount gilead 1001 am est sun feb 9 2014 the snow will taper off this morning...additional snowfall between 10 am and 1 pm will be around an inch. untreated roads will be slippery and motorists will have to use caution. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 353 pm est sun feb 9 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-102100- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 353 pm est sun feb 9 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...this afternoon and tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. wind chill readings late monday evening into early tuesday morning will be in the 10 below to 15 below range mainly over northwest and north central ohio. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Feb 9, 2014 6:39 pm Tonight: A chance of flurries before midnight, then a chance of flurries after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -9. West wind 7 to 10 mph. Monday: A chance of flurries before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as -9. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -2. Wind chill values as low as -13. West wind around 9 mph. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 12. Wind chill values as low as -14. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -5. Light south wind. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 23. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. hr. fxus61 kcle 092354 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 654 pm est sun feb 9 2014 synopsis... a cold front will continue to move east of the area tonight. a ridge will begin building into the ohio valley overnight and remain across the area through wednesday night before shifting east. a cold front will move across the region late in the work week. && near term /until 6 am monday morning/... 5h jet moving just south of the great lakes. weak lift on the north side of the jet will assist in keeping some light snow showers/flurries going through much of the night. lake effect snow may occur overnight but it will be on the light side. best chances of seeing over an inch will ba across inland nw pa...especially in the vicinity from edinboro to corry to the i-86 corridor. previous discussion... the synoptic snow associated with the cold front has moved through. some flurries or light snow showers are lingering late this afternoon. some decrease in clouds were occurring over nw ohio...but they should fill back in. the question is how much lake effect snow will occur over ne oh and nw pa tonight in the northwest flow with the lake mostly ice covered. at this time will keep likely pops along the lake shore but with the inversion low and the moisture barely adequate but the lake and 850 mb temperature difference near 19c will only forecast around an inch. some question whether the pop should be more in the chance category. the other question is how far west to carry the threat of snow showers. with the lake ice covered kept the threat of snow showers mainly from cle east. elsewhere some flurries could occur this evening...otherwise trying to deal with the clouds. the clouds should decrease over northwest ohio late tonight but some mid and high clouds headed toward the area. went a little toward the warmer side of guidance over the entire area with some clouds around. if the clouds decrease more over nw oh...it could be a little colder there than expected. && short term /6 am monday morning through wednesday night/... some lake effect snow showers continuing over ne oh and nw pa into tuesday. the moisture is limited much of the time and the inversion is low. so kept likely pops for monday and then back off to chance pops. still the question how far west and south to carry the snow shower chance...kept it more near the typical snow belt area. elsewhere dry as the ridge builds into the ohio valley and doesn't move east until wednesday. used a blend of guidance for the temperature forecast especially the lows. we could be close to wind chill advisory criteria monday night over nw ohio...this will have to be watched. && long term /thursday through sunday/... model differ on surface features thru the period. looks like some kind of low will track across the lakes followed by reinforcing push of colder air. due to general upper troughing through sun will keep chance pops going for snow while keeping temps below normal. && aviation /00z monday through friday/... what remains for the rest of the evening is flurries and conditions that will vary between mvfr and vfr. some additional lake effect shsn possible off of the lake toward erie into monday. but with nothing to really pinpoint...have chosen to sit with mvfr conditions. low level clouds may try to clear from fdy to mfd overnight...and possibly fill back in on monday. elsewhere mvfr will be most likely for the overnight and monday. overall high pressure will be trying to work into the ohio valley. outlook...non-vfr conditions will persist into monday night ne oh/nw pa. non-vfr may redevelop late thursday. && marine... west to wnw winds of about 10 to 20 knots should be common into mon eve until high pressure move over the lake to produce light and variable winds for tue into tue night. the high moves off to the east tue night thru wed which will lead to south winds around 10 to 15 knots wed. the models differ by thu so not sure which way to go but for now will go with hpc to maintain collaboration with surrounding forecasts. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...kieltyka near term...kieltyka/mullen short term...kieltyka long term...adams aviation...oudeman marine...adams #toledo - #weather