Toledo Weather - Fri, Feb 14, 2014 short term forecast national weather service cleveland oh 408 am est fri feb 14 2014 ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-141030- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot- crawford-richland-marion-morrow- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...marion... mount gilead 408 am est fri feb 14 2014 .now... a cold front will move across the region early this morning. as the front passes and winds shift to the west they will briefly increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph possible. these stronger winds should decrease by sunrise but will remain 10 to 20 mph through the day. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 431 am est fri feb 14 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-151100- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 431 am est fri feb 14 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...saturday through thursday. the region will see a warming trend starting monday and continuing through thursday. temperatures may very well be topping 50 degrees by thursday. the biggest concern with the warming...snowmelt...and any potential rainfall will be for ice jam flooding. other nuisance flooding will also be possible. continue to stay informed about the forecast for the coming week as we are able to put more detail into the forecast. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. Toledo Express Airport Feb 14, 2014 7:52 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 24 F Humidity : 84% Wind Speed : W 16 mph - Gust 25 mph Barometer : 29.58 in Dewpoint: 20 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 11 F hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Feb 14, 2014 6:52 am Today: A chance of flurries before 1pm, then a chance of flurries after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. West wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Tonight: A chance of flurries before 7pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -6. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 18. Wind chill values as low as -9. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Saturday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 12. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday: A chance of snow, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Washington's Birthday: A chance of snow before 2pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 50%. hr. fxus61 kcle 141139 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 639 am est fri feb 14 2014 synopsis... a warm front moving across northeast ohio and nw pa will be quickly followed by a cold front as a clipper low moves across the great lakes this morning. another low will move across the lower ohio valley and kentucky later today. high pressure will build across the region for saturday with another weak clipper moving across ohio saturday night and early sunday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... center of clipper low over lower michigan early this morning. temperatures with its minor warm air push are reaching the freezing mark. temperatures will still rise a bit more across the east...but the cold front quickly follows today. therefore for places like cleveland and wooster...they are at their highs for today now. not a huge drop off for today...but the majority of the day will be in the 20s. light snow and flurries working its way across the lake and into the lakeshore counties. just a brief shot of snow otherwise for much of the day not too much moisture to work with and worded today mainly as a chance of flurries for most. a location here or there may have a dusting and have allowed for a couple tenths of accumulation to no more than an inch for ne oh/nw pa. southern system looks to be too far south and may only bring some very light snow into the southern tier of counties. && short term /6 pm this evening through monday night/... by this evening northern clipper will have been absorbed into low across new england. southern clipper will keep moving to the mid atlantic. expecting little help from the lake...h8 temps marginal and lake iced over well. do get a little convergence this evening for ne oh/nw pa while there is still some moisture to work with. therefore have continued the 30 to 40 percent snow chances...again with only light accumulations if any. by late friday night and saturday morning ridge begins to build in and any remaining snow/flurries will come to an end. this will also help allow temperatures across the west get back into single digits friday night. cool but fair saturday. next clipper will be quick to move across saturday night/sunday morning. again not too much moisture with this...snow around...but limited amounts. high pressure and even better ridging move into the area sunday and sunday night. still running below normal...but no different than we have been experiencing lately. next clipper in the series arrives for monday as the flow aloft is trying to become more zonal and therefore closer to normal temperatures. expecting temperatures to get above freezing monday and may very well have some rain as the precip type for a time during the day with this system. high builds quickly to our south monday night and no real push of cold air...finally. && long term /tuesday through thursday/... low pressure will be east of the region by tuesday morning with any precipitation well to the east. we will then shift to a pattern that will bring warmer air back into the area for the middle and end of next week. increased warm advection and weak ripples of energy moving through an increasing southwesterly middle level flow may bring some light precipitation to the region tuesday night into early wednesday morning. it appears the precipitation will be very light but we will have to monitor surface temperatures closely if it ends up being liquid falling to the surface. the region will continue to warm into thursday as low pressure moves closer. still some timing differences in the models on when the heaviest rainfall will occur but all indicate it should be thursday into thursday night. tuesday will be the coldest day next week with highs in the middle to upper 30s. the warming continues into thursday when highs will make a run at the middle...maybe upper 50s. this will all hinge on how much the snowpack erodes through the week. in any event it will be much warmer than the region has seen over the last few weeks. the warmth and rainfall will raise concerns about flooding near any of the rivers and creeks across the region. we will continue to monitor for the potential of ice jam flooding over the next week. && aviation /12z friday through tuesday/... mvfr ceilings have spread across most of the region as a cold front moves across northern ohio this morning. the front as of 1130z was located near a kcle to kbjj to kvtz line. ifr conditions will occur with the heavier returns on radar. it appears that it will be short lived at most locations with 20 to maybe 40 minutes of visibilities dipping to as low as 3/4 of a mile. the lower visibilities will be near and north of a line from kcle to kakr to kyng. keri will see the ifr conditions persist the longest with a couple hours possible. gusty westerly winds will occur near the frontal boundary and may reach 25 to 30 knots. the winds will decrease through mid afternoon. winds will become northwest during the evening but should be under 10 knots. outlook...non-vfr possible saturday through sunday and monday afternoon into tuesday. && marine... a series of weak clipper storm systems will track across the region today through saturday night. the strongest piece of jet energy will pass today with westerly winds increasing in the wake of a cold front. winds will likely increase to 25 to 30 knots friday afternoon into early saturday. high pressure will then increase its influence over the lake into sunday. as the high moves off to the east sunday night it will allow for increasing southerly winds on monday. the next weak cold front should cross the lake on tuesday with gusty westerly winds once again likely. hr. fzus51 kcle 140837 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 337 am est fri feb 14 2014 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>149-141515- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva- on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 337 am est fri feb 14 2014 today...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. cloudy. a chance of flurries. tonight...west winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. saturday...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. partly sunny. a chance of snow showers in the morning. saturday night...west winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy. a chance of snow overnight. waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered. see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday. the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 33 degrees. hr. Cle NWS info from this morning, Feb 14: bq. the region will see a warming trend starting monday and continuing through thursday. temperatures may very well be topping 50 degrees by thursday. the biggest concern with the warming...snowmelt...and any potential rainfall will be for ice jam flooding. other nuisance flooding will also be possible. bq. still some timing differences in the models on when the heaviest rainfall will occur but all indicate it should be thursday into thursday night. br. Forecast for next week: bq. *Tuesday:* Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. bq. *Wednesday:* Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. bq. *Thursday:* A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 50%. hr. Forecast.io predictions: * today, Feb 14 : 28 and 19 * Sat, Feb 15 : 19 and 11 * Sun, Feb 16 : 25 and 15 * Mon, Feb 17 : 35 and 10 * Tue, Feb 18 : 40 and 30 * Wed, Feb 19 : 40 and 29 * Thu, Feb 20 : 49 and 31 * Fri, Feb 21 : 43 and 34 #weather - #toledo