Toledo Weather - Wed, Feb 19, 2014 fxus61 kcle 191146 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 646 am est wed feb 19 2014 synopsis... a cold front will move east across the area this morning. high pressure will build east across the area by this evening. a warm front will lift north across the region thursday morning a low pressure moves into the middle mississippi valley. the low will move north into the western great lakes by friday morning while deepening. a cold front will sweep east across the region thursday night into friday morning bringing a return back to the colder air for the weekend. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... showers that were over southeast ohio continue to lift northeast and away from the area. the cold front was still just northwest of toledo and will slide east during the morning hours. this feature may cause a stray shower to develop over the east so will leave a slight chance of showers for this morning. otherwise...no other major changes. previous discussion... upper level trough will move east across the region with resultant surface low pressure lifting northeast through central ontario canada. a surface cold front associated with the low pressure system will move east across the forecast area this morning and usher some cooler air into the forecast area. upper level positive vorticity maximum and associated moisture causing showers to move northeast across the southeastern half of the state of ohio at this time. expecting the bulk of this activity to remain south of the forecast area. as cold front moves east...it will collide with some of the mean moisture and result in at least a chance for some rain shower activity this morning. as cold front pushes east...drier air and clearing skies will work there way east into the area this afternoon. maximum temperatures will likely be nearly steady through the day even though we see cold air advection behind the front. sun should help compensate for the cooling air mass. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... upper level trough over the region will move east allowing upper level ridge to build into the region tonight along with surface ridge. more troughiness digging in the central plains region and then western great lakes will set in motion the development of a surface low pressure over the oklahoma panhandle for the classic panhandle hook. the track of the storm will be closer to the typical fall track where the center stays west of the local area keeping this area in the warm sector. a warm front will lift north across the forecast area thursday morning. temperatures upstream appear to be quite mild considering the extensive snow pack in place over a large part of the northern u.s. thinking is that even though we have an extensive snow pack as well...increased gradient winds will likely push temperatures well into the 50s over the southwest portion of the forecast area and around 50 elsewhere. due to the instability expected with the cold front expected to move across the area late thursday into thursday night...potential exists for thunderstorms to develop along or ahead of the frontal boundary. current upper air soundings indicate quite a bit of shear. if this hodograph remains present through the passage of the cold front...potential exists for some strong to severe thunderstorms on thursday and thursday evening...especially in the western half of the forecast area. actually...latest day two outlook for severe thunderstorms has the western half of our forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. as always...will have to monitor this situation and see how it develops over the next 24 hours. i cant remember a time when we had an extensive snow pack on the ground and we had to worry about severe weather. will see how much snow pack as an effect on reducing severe weather threat. latest guidance is not in agreement on how much qpf we will receive with the storm system on thursday. some indications are that we will get a quick shot of rain and then begin to quickly dry slot with the cold frontal passage. the gfs and european solutions appear to be the wettest...while the sref and nam are drier. will take the middle of the road and go with qpf amounts of around a half an inch across the area thursday into thursday night. snow pack contains a lot of dry snow within it and can hold a little bit of rain before runoff begins. at this time...will hold off on any flood watches due to the possibility of a quick shot of rain on the snow pack. warmer temperatures yesterday through tomorrow will cause snow pack to moisten up a bit. critical ingredients for flood potential will be the wet bulb temperature and winds. wet bulbs are progged to be above freezing so we should continue to see snow melt through friday. south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will act as a warm blow drier on the snow pack and this could very well cause the snow pack to melt at a faster than usual rate. runoff from snow melt and rainfall has the potential to cause some problems on rivers due to the ice cover. if the dry slot shoots in here fast like the nam suggests then qpf amounts will be much lighter. once cold front pushes through thursday night...we will see a return back to some fair weather and slightly cooler temperatures for highs and lows. much cooler air really does not arrive until saturday night so will adjust temperatures accordingly. && long term /sunday through tuesday/... models continue to have differences in the long term so confidence is below average today. about the only thing that is certain is that temps will return to below normal during the period. some of the guidance is hinting at a weak wave passing just to the south of the area on sunday. moisture appears to be limited so will keep things dry for now. a cold front will move through sometime sunday night or early monday. again it looks fairly dry and will limit precip chances to far ne oh and nw pa. it appears the best chances for precip during the period will be monday night into tuesday as another waves moves through in the fast flow aloft. high temps both monday and tuesday will be at least 15 degrees below normal. && aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/... a cold front is just about to enter the west end of the area. currently no precip and very little in the way of cloudiness associated with the front. new guidance continues to show some mvfr cigs developing later this morning over the se end of the area as the front arrives. will go with a tempo mention of mvfr cigs for a few hours at kmfd...kcak and kyng. there could be some vfr cigs elsewhere through about 18z and then expecting no more than some high clouds. sw flow will become west behind the front and then southerly again tonight. just some high cloudiness expected tonight. outlook...non-vfr redeveloping thursday and continuing thursday night...lingering in ne oh/nw pa into friday. some non-vfr possible sunday. && marine... a cold front will cross the lake this morning causing the flow to become westerly. the flow will become east to southeast by daybreak thursday as low pressure moves over the western lakes. expect speeds to gradually increase. speeds will become southerly late thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. the front will eventually cross the lake thursday night. southwest winds behind the front will increase to near gale force friday. speeds will diminish friday night with west to southwest flow then expected through the weekend. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Feb 19, 2014 6:41 am Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. West wind 9 to 11 mph. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Thursday: Rain and snow showers likely before 11am, then rain showers. Some thunder is also possible. High near 50. Southeast wind 8 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Night: Rain before 1am, then a chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 33. Breezy, with a south wind 18 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a southwest wind 22 to 25 mph. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Breezy. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 433 am est wed feb 19 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-200945- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 433 am est wed feb 19 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. melting snow and rainfall could possibly cause runoff into streams and creeks late thursday into the weekend. the potential for flooding is highly dependent on how much rainfall occurs and how fast the snow melts. at this time...the computer models are considerably different in the amount of rainfall expected. the potential exists for flooding from run off and ice jamming if significant rainfall amounts occur along with rapid snow melt. in addition...thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible thursday night as a strong cold front crosses the area. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. #toledo - #weather