Toledo Weather - Feb 20, 2014 hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 549 am est thu feb 20 2014 ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-211100- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot- crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox- 549 am est thu feb 20 2014 ...flood watch in effect from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning... ...wind advisory in effect from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. flood watch. wind advisory. in addition...thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible thursday night as a strong cold front crosses the area. .days two through seven...friday through wednesday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. flood watch. wind advisory. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. hr. flood watch national weather service cleveland oh 532 am est thu feb 20 2014 ...flooding from snowmelt...rain...and ice jams possible thursday afternoon into friday... .rain will overspread the area today as a warm front lifts north of lake erie. a secondary round of rain will accompany a cold front sweeping east across the region overnight. most areas will receive between a half inch and an inch of rain...with locally higher amounts possible where thunderstorms occur. additional run off will be released from the melting snow pack as temperatures approach 50 degrees by this evening. with the ground frozen...run off from melting snow and rainfall will lead to rises on area rivers. most rivers contain a considerable amount of ice which could break up and jam as rivers rise and temperatures warm. ponding of water and flooding of some roads and basements will also be possible as snow continues to block drainage systems. ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-202200- /o.con.kcle.fa.a.0001.140220t2000z-140221t1500z/ /00000.0.rs.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage- trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning- marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie- southern erie-crawford pa- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon... jefferson...findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron... ravenna...warren...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield... ashland...wooster...canton...youngstown...marion...mount gilead... millersburg...mount vernon...ashtabula...erie...edinboro... meadville 532 am est thu feb 20 2014 ...flood watch remains in effect from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning... the flood watch continues for * portions of ohio and northwest pennsylvania...including the following areas...in ohio...ashland...ashtabula inland... ashtabula lakeshore...crawford...cuyahoga...erie oh...geauga... hancock...holmes...huron...knox...lake...lorain...lucas... mahoning...marion...medina...morrow...ottawa...portage... richland...sandusky...seneca...stark...summit...trumbull... wayne...wood and wyandot. in northwest pennsylvania...crawford pa...northern erie and southern erie. * from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning * a combination of melting snow and rain will produce a threat of flooding from thursday afternoon into friday. ice jams on area rivers may also produce flooding. * new rainfall of a half to one inch is expected. localized amounts up to two inches are possible from thunderstorms. * a significant amount of water will be released by the melting snow as warmer temperatures move in on thursday. rain will enhance the flood threat and any heavy rain could produce significant flooding. some river flooding is likely. ice jam flooding can develop quickly and make for a more dangerous flood risk. in addition to flooding on streams and rivers... flooding of basements and poor drainage areas is also possible. precautionary/preparedness actions... a flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. you should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. stay tuned to weather radio for further details or updates hr. urgent - weather message national weather service cleveland oh 411 am est thu feb 20 2014 .a strong cold front will move across the region tonight. southeast winds will increase ahead of this front today. by late afternoon wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will be possible near the lake erie shoreline in northwest pennsylvania. winds elsewhere will increase tonight as the front moves across the region. a line of showers with some thunderstorms is also expected to develop ahead of the front. winds could briefly gust to 50 mph or more as this line moves through. behind the front...winds will gust to more than 45 mph into friday evening. ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-201715- /o.con.kcle.wi.y.0001.140221t0300z-140222t0000z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot- crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion... mount gilead...mount vernon 411 am est thu feb 20 2014 ...wind advisory remains in effect from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday... * winds...southeast to south winds will become southwest late this evening and increase to 20 to 35 mph with gusts in excess of 45 mph. wind gusts in excess of 45 mph are then expected into friday evening. * timing...late this evening to friday evening. * impacts...a few limbs...trees and power lines may be blown down. precautionary/preparedness actions... a wind advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. hr. TOL Feb 20, 2014 5:52 am Weather : Fog/Mist Temperature : 29 F Humidity : 92% Wind Speed : ESE 6 mph Barometer : 29.95 in Dewpoint: 27 F Visibility : 6.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 23 F hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Feb 20, 2014 3:54 am Today: Rain or freezing rain likely before 11am, then rain. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of fog after 11am. High near 49. Southeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Areas of fog before 11pm. Low around 32. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Windy, with a southwest wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 18. hr. fxus61 kcle 200932 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 432 am est thu feb 20 2014 synopsis... low pressure over the southern plains will undergo rapid deepening as it tracks northeast across the upper midwest today. this system will lift a warm front north across the area towards midday...followed by a strong cold front sweeping east tonight. the low will move north across lake superior on friday...with a ridge building over the southern great lakes on sunday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... active forecast as a developing area of low pressure over the southern plains tracks northeast and undergoes rapid intensification. an area of showers and thunderstorms can be seen over illinois moving northeast along the elevated front aloft and this area of precipitation will make rapid progress towards nw ohio this morning as a 50-60 knot low level jet approaches. the dry resident airmass in place will quickly be overcome with moisture as pw values increase from 0.25 to 1.00 by 18z. concerns early this morning include patchy freezing fog in ne ohio/nw pa where skies have been clear most of the night. also some concern that easterly flow off lake erie in nw ohio will slow warming this morning with a brief window of freezing rain possible before temperatures warm. upstream observations show temperatures warming into the mid 30s immediately ahead of the rain...and given that it won't arrive until around 10 am think rain is the most likely scenario. however...warm fronts tend to slow as they approach the frozen lake erie so did include a brief mention of freezing rain. this will not occur until after the morning commute is over. thunderstorm activity continues to expand to the west and did include a chance of thunderstorms all areas today as elevated instability increases. a flood watch remains in effect as we continue to melt the snowpack compounded by multiple rounds of rain expected today. the heaviest rain during the daytime hours will be focused across nw ohio where 0.50 to 1.00 of rain is likely. the ground remains frozen so this water and water being released from the snowpack will channel into area waterways. ponding of water may be aggravated by drainage systems that are clogged by lingering snow. thunderstorms during the daytime hours are not expected to pose a threat of severe weather due to the very stable layer near the surface. there will be a very strong wind field aloft with winds near 850mb of 50 knots but these are not expected to mix to the surface. the exception to this will be erie county pa where southeasterly downsloping winds will gust to 45 mph by late afternoon. temperatures will be a little deceiving for today as forecast highs in the mid 40s to low 50s will not occur until this evening. the warming will be slowed by clouds and rain through mid day with southerly winds ramping up into tonight. areas of fog are expected mainly across nw ohio as dewpoints increase with additional moisture from the melting snowpack and cool flow off lake erie. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... by 00z...a 982 surface low will be located west of chicago...continuing to move north with a cold front pushing east out ahead of it. convection is expected to develop along the cold front moving eastward with some uncertainty in how far north the surface based convection will extend. for now the storm prediction center has kept the slight risk for severe thunderstorms just south of the forecast area. it is possible that these thunderstorms could only reach as far north as central ohio...but think there is a decent chance of them extending into north central and north east ohio. have issued a wind advisory for the entire forecast area for tonight as the strong cold front moves through the area. if convection does reach nrn ohio then severe thunderstorm watches/warnings may also be needed. thunderstorms will mostly likely occur between 9 pm and 2 am. there is some concern that models may be struggling with temperatures this evening because of the snow pack and that we may actually make a run at the mid 50s...increasing the severe weather threat. whether it is from the convection or just strong downward momentum along the front...think wind gusts to 50 mph are likely and could exceed 60 mph with convection. winds may also be a little stronger in nw ohio where the strongest winds and downward momentum will occur behind the front. qpf will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch again but the heaviest rain will likely extend from central ohio to nw pa which may not receive as much during the first round thursday afternoon. winds will remain strong through the day on friday as the low departs to the north. the atmosphere will be well mixed through nearly 800mb and a 45-50 knot wind field remains in place at 850mb. wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible again...likely strongest in the north. there will be some warm advection on saturday ahead of the next weak frontal push. highs will reach the 40s most areas and include a chance of showers most areas...possibly mixing with snow in nw ohio. && long term /sunday through wednesday/... the flow aloft will be fast and zonal at the start of the period. the models continue to have differing solutions as far as the timing and movement of the individual impulses is concerned. sunday should be dry but some lake enhanced snow showers could occur sunday night into monday. it appears the best chances for precip during the period will come monday night into tuesday. the ecmwf continues to show a wave moving across the region at that time. a period of light snow is probable. this solution is similar to the models previous couple of runs. the gfs continues to vary a lot from run to run so will follow the more consistent ecmwf. will need to continue with a mention of lake effect into wednesday. for those wanting spring...you will have to wait a while longer. high temps the entire period will be well below normal and at least 15 degrees below normal from monday on. && aviation /06z thursday through monday/... rain shield now into western illinois should reach nw oh toward daybreak and spread across the entire area by early afternoon. still possible to see some freezing rain nw oh...roughly in the 13 to 15z time frame...but did not put into taf as still doubts in my mind. think temps will rise above freezing point at other taf sites by the time precip arrives. warm front now across tennessee will lift across the area tomorrow afternoon. as it does expect to see at least areas of ifr cig/br until front lifts north. by 18z the 925mb winds increase to 40-50 knots...may see a little llws with the warm front itself. strong cold front will move across the area thursday night. expect tsra to develop ahead of the front and move across the area thursday evening. doubts in my mind as to how widespread it will be in our forecast area. spc keeps slt risk area to our south. outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa friday and maybe sat in -shsn. some non-vfr possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon. && marine... a strong cold front is still on track to cross the lake later tonight. will see increasing se flow today and s flow tonight ahead of the front. sw flow behind the front will increase to gale force on friday. have trimmed the watch start time back several hours. it still a little far out to hoist the gale. have coordinated with buffalo and expect the day crew to go with a warning. speeds will gradually diminish friday night. west to southwest flow will then continue through the end of the period. a line of convective showers will likely cross the lake tonight. expect gusts with the line to be close to gale force. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089. wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz010>014- 020>023-031>033-038-089. wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. pa...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning for paz001>003. wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for paz003. wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est friday for paz001-002. marine...gale watch from friday morning through friday evening for lez061-142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec/kieltyka short term...kec long term...kubina aviation...djb marine...kubina hr. Toledo Area Forecast Summaries (using forecast.io data) Now: Mostly Cloudy 30 F - ESE at 8 mph Next 24 Hours: Windy starting tonight, with heavy mixed rain and snow (2–4 in) throughout the day. Next 7 Days: Mixed precipitation today and tomorrow; temperatures falling to 20° on Wednesday. 30 degrees at 8:44 a.m. hr. special weather statement national weather service cleveland oh 816 am est thu feb 20 2014 ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-201530- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot- crawford-richland-marion-morrow- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...marion... mount gilead 816 am est thu feb 20 2014 rain will spread across northwest ohio this morning. temperatures will rise through the mid 30s. even though the temperatures will rise above freezing... the ground is cold and ice may form on untreated roads and sidewalks. use caution this morning and be alert for black ice. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Feb 20, 2014 3:54 am Today: Rain or freezing rain likely before 11am, then rain. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of fog after 11am. High near 49. Southeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Areas of fog before 11pm. Low around 32. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Windy, with a southwest wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 18. hr. fxus61 kcle 201231 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 731 am est thu feb 20 2014 synopsis... low pressure over the southern plains will undergo rapid deepening as it tracks northeast across the upper midwest today. this system will lift a warm front north across the area towards midday...followed by a strong cold front sweeping east tonight. the low will move north across lake superior on friday...with a ridge building over the southern great lakes on sunday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... area of rain already into nw ohio with temperatures slowly creeping up. lima was up to 36 degrees and defiance was up to 33 degrees ahead of the rain although temperatures at tol/fdy remain at or below freezing. some evaporational cooling may occur as rain begins with dewpoints still in the upper 20s. left a brief chance of freezing rain in the forecast for nw ohio this morning but still expecting it to be short lived with temperatures warming through the morning. minor adjustments to pops made for this afternoon with a decent break in precip from late this afternoon into the evening between rain associated with the warm front and showers with the cold front overnight. original discussion...active forecast as a developing area of low pressure over the southern plains tracks northeast and undergoes rapid intensification. an area of showers and thunderstorms can be seen over illinois moving northeast along the elevated front aloft and this area of precipitation will make rapid progress towards nw ohio this morning as a 50-60 knot low level jet approaches. the dry resident airmass in place will quickly be overcome with moisture as pw values increase from 0.25 to 1.00 by 18z. concerns early this morning include patchy freezing fog in ne ohio/nw pa where skies have been clear most of the night. also some concern that easterly flow off lake erie in nw ohio will slow warming this morning with a brief window of freezing rain possible before temperatures warm. upstream observations show temperatures warming into the mid 30s immediately ahead of the rain...and given that it won't arrive until around 10 am think rain is the most likely scenario. however...warm fronts tend to slow as they approach the frozen lake erie so did include a brief mention of freezing rain. this will not occur until after the morning commute is over. thunderstorm activity continues to expand to the west and did include a chance of thunderstorms all areas today as elevated instability increases. a flood watch remains in effect as we continue to melt the snowpack compounded by multiple rounds of rain expected today. the heaviest rain during the daytime hours will be focused across nw ohio where 0.50 to 1.00 of rain is likely. the ground remains frozen so this water and water being released from the snowpack will channel into area waterways. ponding of water may be aggravated by drainage systems that are clogged by lingering snow. thunderstorms during the daytime hours are not expected to pose a threat of severe weather due to the very stable layer near the surface. there will be a very strong wind field aloft with winds near 850mb of 50 knots but these are not expected to mix to the surface. the exception to this will be erie county pa where southeasterly downsloping winds will gust to 45 mph by late afternoon. temperatures will be a little deceiving for today as forecast highs in the mid 40s to low 50s will not occur until this evening. the warming will be slowed by clouds and rain through mid day with southerly winds ramping up into tonight. areas of fog are expected mainly across nw ohio as dewpoints increase with additional moisture from the melting snowpack and cool flow off lake erie. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... by 00z...a 982 surface low will be located west of chicago...continuing to move north with a cold front pushing east out ahead of it. convection is expected to develop along the cold front moving eastward with some uncertainty in how far north the surface based convection will extend. for now the storm prediction center has kept the slight risk for severe thunderstorms just south of the forecast area. it is possible that these thunderstorms could only reach as far north as central ohio...but think there is a decent chance of them extending into north central and north east ohio. have issued a wind advisory for the entire forecast area for tonight as the strong cold front moving through the area should at least bring wind gusts to 45 mph. if convection does reach nrn ohio then severe thunderstorm watches/warnings may also be needed. thunderstorms will mostly likely occur between 9 pm and 2 am. there is some concern that models may be struggling with temperatures this evening because of the snow pack and that we may actually make a run at the mid 50s...increasing the severe weather threat. whether it is from the convection or just strong downward momentum along the front...think wind gusts to 50 mph are likely and could exceed 60 mph with convection. winds may also be a little stronger in nw ohio where the strongest winds and pressure falls will occur behind the front. qpf will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch again but the heaviest rain will likely extend from central ohio to nw pa which may not receive as much during the first round thursday afternoon. winds will remain strong through the day on friday as the low departs to the north. the atmosphere will be well mixed through nearly 800mb and a 45-50 knot wind field remains in place at 850mb. wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible...likely strongest in the north. there will be some warm advection on saturday ahead of the next weak frontal push. highs will reach the 40s most areas and include a chance of showers most areas...possibly mixing with snow in nw ohio. && long term /sunday through wednesday/... the flow aloft will be fast and zonal at the start of the period. the models continue to have differing solutions as far as the timing and movement of the individual impulses is concerned. sunday should be dry but some lake enhanced snow showers could occur sunday night into monday. it appears the best chances for precip during the period will come monday night into tuesday. the ecmwf continues to show a wave moving across the region at that time. a period of light snow is probable. this solution is similar to the models previous couple of runs. the gfs continues to vary a lot from run to run so will follow the more consistent ecmwf. will need to continue with a mention of lake effect into wednesday. for those wanting spring...you will have to wait a while longer. high temps the entire period will be well below normal and at least 15 degrees below normal from monday on. && aviation /12z thursday through monday/... a warm front over southern ohio will lift north across the area by 18z. precip associated with this front will move into nw oh by mid morning. temps at ktol and kfdy remain below freezing. think kfdy may climb above freezing before the rain starts but ktol may see a brief period of fzra. will try to time the precip east across the remainder of the area. expect keri to remain dry till late afternoon. warmer and more humid air will arrive behind the front and expect widespread ifr cigs and vsbys to develop as the snow continues to melt. little improvement is expected till a cold front arrives later tonight. it appears that a line of convection will develop ahead of the front and move across the local area beginning later this evening. will not include any thunder in the tafs for now...but thunder is certainly a possibility...especially in the south. the other big concern today is the winds. se flow will gradually increase today and then become s toward evening. the flow will become sw behind the cold front. gusts to 30 knots are likely by late afternoon most areas with gusts to 40 knots or greater with any convection that forms and also right behind the cold front. keri will see a good set up for downsloping winds and gusts to 40 knots are possible there by late afternoon. outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa friday and maybe sat in -shsn. some non-vfr possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon. && marine... a strong cold front is still on track to cross the lake later tonight. will see increasing se flow today and s flow tonight ahead of the front. sw flow behind the front will increase to gale force on friday. have trimmed the watch start time back several hours. it still a little far out to hoist the gale. have coordinated with buffalo and expect the day crew to go with a warning. speeds will gradually diminish friday night. west to southwest flow will then continue through the end of the period. a line of convective showers will likely cross the lake tonight. expect gusts with the line to be close to gale force. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089. wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz010>014- 020>023-031>033-038-089. wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. pa...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning for paz001>003. wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for paz003. wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est friday for paz001-002. marine...gale watch from friday morning through friday evening for lez061-142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec/kieltyka short term...kec long term...kubina aviation...kubina marine...kubina hr. fxus61 kcle 201510 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1010 am est thu feb 20 2014 synopsis... low pressure over the southern plains will undergo rapid deepening as it tracks northeast across the upper midwest today. this system will lift a warm front north across the area towards midday...followed by a strong cold front sweeping east tonight. the low will move north across lake superior on friday...with a ridge building over the southern great lakes on sunday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... the mid morning update is pretty much just an adjustment to time the advancing rain and thunder. temps in toledo should go above freezing by late morning. will have to see how much of a break develops in the rain this afternoon as we get into the warm sector and will adjust the forecast accordingly. no other changes. original discussion...active forecast as a developing area of low pressure over the southern plains tracks northeast and undergoes rapid intensification. an area of showers and thunderstorms can be seen over illinois moving northeast along the elevated front aloft and this area of precipitation will make rapid progress towards nw ohio this morning as a 50-60 knot low level jet approaches. the dry resident air mass in place will quickly be overcome with moisture as pw values increase from 0.25 to 1.00 by 18z. concerns early this morning include patchy freezing fog in ne ohio/nw pa where skies have been clear most of the night. also some concern that easterly flow off lake erie in nw ohio will slow warming this morning with a brief window of freezing rain possible before temperatures warm. upstream observations show temperatures warming into the mid 30s immediately ahead of the rain...and given that it won't arrive until around 10 am think rain is the most likely scenario. however...warm fronts tend to slow as they approach the frozen lake erie so did include a brief mention of freezing rain. this will not occur until after the morning commute is over. thunderstorm activity continues to expand to the west and did include a chance of thunderstorms all areas today as elevated instability increases. a flood watch remains in effect as we continue to melt the snow pack compounded by multiple rounds of rain expected today. the heaviest rain during the daytime hours will be focused across nw ohio where 0.50 to 1.00 of rain is likely. the ground remains frozen so this water and water being released from the snow pack will channel into area waterways. ponding of water may be aggravated by drainage systems that are clogged by lingering snow. thunderstorms during the daytime hours are not expected to pose a threat of severe weather due to the very stable layer near the surface. there will be a very strong wind field aloft with winds near 850mb of 50 knots but these are not expected to mix to the surface. the exception to this will be erie county pa where southeasterly down sloping winds will gust to 45 mph by late afternoon. temperatures will be a little deceiving for today as forecast highs in the mid 40s to low 50s will not occur until this evening. the warming will be slowed by clouds and rain through mid day with southerly winds ramping up into tonight. areas of fog are expected mainly across nw ohio as dew points increase with additional moisture from the melting snow pack and cool flow off lake erie. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... by 00z...a 982 surface low will be located west of chicago...continuing to move north with a cold front pushing east out ahead of it. convection is expected to develop along the cold front moving eastward with some uncertainty in how far north the surface based convection will extend. for now the storm prediction center has kept the slight risk for severe thunderstorms just south of the forecast area. it is possible that these thunderstorms could only reach as far north as central ohio...but think there is a decent chance of them extending into north central and north east ohio. have issued a wind advisory for the entire forecast area for tonight as the strong cold front moving through the area should at least bring wind gusts to 45 mph. if convection does reach nrn ohio then severe thunderstorm watches/warnings may also be needed. thunderstorms will mostly likely occur between 9 pm and 2 am. there is some concern that models may be struggling with temperatures this evening because of the snow pack and that we may actually make a run at the mid 50s...increasing the severe weather threat. whether it is from the convection or just strong downward momentum along the front...think wind gusts to 50 mph are likely and could exceed 60 mph with convection. winds may also be a little stronger in nw ohio where the strongest winds and pressure falls will occur behind the front. qpf will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch again but the heaviest rain will likely extend from central ohio to nw pa which may not receive as much during the first round thursday afternoon. winds will remain strong through the day on friday as the low departs to the north. the atmosphere will be well mixed through nearly 800mb and a 45-50 knot wind field remains in place at 850mb. wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible...likely strongest in the north. there will be some warm advection on saturday ahead of the next weak frontal push. highs will reach the 40s most areas and include a chance of showers most areas...possibly mixing with snow in nw ohio. && long term /sunday through wednesday/... the flow aloft will be fast and zonal at the start of the period. the models continue to have differing solutions as far as the timing and movement of the individual impulses is concerned. sunday should be dry but some lake enhanced snow showers could occur sunday night into monday. it appears the best chances for precip during the period will come monday night into tuesday. the ecmwf continues to show a wave moving across the region at that time. a period of light snow is probable. this solution is similar to the models previous couple of runs. the gfs continues to vary a lot from run to run so will follow the more consistent ecmwf. will need to continue with a mention of lake effect into wednesday. for those wanting spring...you will have to wait a while longer. high temps the entire period will be well below normal and at least 15 degrees below normal from monday on. && aviation /12z thursday through monday/... a warm front over southern ohio will lift north across the area by 18z. precip associated with this front will move into nw oh by mid morning. temps at ktol and kfdy remain below freezing. think kfdy may climb above freezing before the rain starts but ktol may see a brief period of fzra. will try to time the precip east across the remainder of the area. expect keri to remain dry till late afternoon. warmer and more humid air will arrive behind the front and expect widespread ifr cigs and vsbys to develop as the snow continues to melt. little improvement is expected till a cold front arrives later tonight. it appears that a line of convection will develop ahead of the front and move across the local area beginning later this evening. will not include any thunder in the tafs for now...but thunder is certainly a possibility...especially in the south. the other big concern today is the winds. se flow will gradually increase today and then become s toward evening. the flow will become sw behind the cold front. gusts to 30 knots are likely by late afternoon most areas with gusts to 40 knots or greater with any convection that forms and also right behind the cold front. keri will see a good set up for down sloping winds and gusts to 40 knots are possible there by late afternoon. outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa friday and maybe sat in -shsn. some non-vfr possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon. && marine... jet maximum is progged to move northeast across the southern great lakes and this feature will likely cause winds to increase over the lake friday morning and continue into friday evening. winds are expected to reach gale force friday morning. coordinated with surrounding offices and the canadians on issuing the gale warning for lake erie. warning will go into effect 7 am friday morning through 1 am saturday morning. previous discussion... a strong cold front is still on track to cross the lake later tonight. will see increasing se flow today and s flow tonight ahead of the front. sw flow behind the front will increase to gale force on friday. have trimmed the watch start time back several hours. it still a little far out to hoist the gale. have coordinated with buffalo and expect the day crew to go with a warning. speeds will gradually diminish friday night. west to southwest flow will then continue through the end of the period. a line of convective showers will likely cross the lake tonight. expect gusts with the line to be close to gale force. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089. wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for ohz010>014- 020>023-031>033-038-089. wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. pa...flood watch from 3 pm est this afternoon through friday morning for paz001>003. wind advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est friday for paz003. wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est friday for paz001-002. marine...gale warning from 7 am friday to 1 am est saturday for lez061- 142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kosarik short term...kec long term...kubina aviation...kubina marine...kubina/lombardy hr. flood advisory national weather service cleveland oh 1226 pm est thu feb 20 2014 ohc095-123-173-202330- /o.new.kcle.fa.y.0007.140220t1726z-140220t2330z/ /00000.0.rs.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/ 1226 pm est thu feb 20 2014 the national weather service in cleveland has issued a * flood advisory for rain and melting snow in... lucas county in northwest ohio... ottawa county in northwest ohio... northern wood county in northwest ohio... * until 630 pm est * at 1224 pm rain and thunderstorms continued across parts of northwest ohio. snow melt was also occurring. flooding and ponding of low lying areas and poor drainage areas was reported. the flooding was exacerbated by drains that were plugged with snow and ice. * flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas will likely continue this afternoon. precautionary/preparedness actions... excessive runoff from the rain and snow melt will cause minor flooding of low lying and poorly drained streets...highways and underpasses. minor flooding of low lying roads and farmland near creeks...streams...and drainage ditches is also likely. never cross a flooded roadway. && lat...lon 4172 8389 4174 8345 4172 8341 4170 8342 4169 8338 4172 8334 4164 8321 4162 8309 4153 8296 4153 8290 4157 8286 4151 8271 4149 8270 4146 8333 4150 8334 4150 8341 4133 8342 4132 8389 hr. Forecast.io Toledo hi-lo temp predictions as of Thu, Feb 20 at 5:30 p.m. * today : 43 and 29 * Feb 21 : 42 and 32 * Feb 22 : 36 and 27 * Feb 23 : 26 and 19 * Feb 24 : 23 and 14 * Feb 25 : 24 and 14 * Feb 26 : 21 and 11 * Feb 27 : 15 and 4 hr. fxus61 kcle 202053 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 353 pm est thu feb 20 2014 synopsis... deepening low pressure over the mid mississippi valley will cross the western great lakes tonight and move across ontario on friday. the warm front will move north of the area this evening followed quickly by the cold front tonight. a weak cold front will cross the area on saturday. colder air will spread across much of the plains and midwest and lower great lakes early next week. && near term /until 6 am friday morning/... the last of the rain (the first batch) is lifting north across lake erie. all of our meso models redevelop showers across western ohio late this afternoon and early this evening but the better action is showing across the mississippi valley as thunderstorms are already racing northeast. this activity will get drawn north quickly ahead of the front. not sure how much thunderstorms will get this far north but there certainly is a chance given the low level jet and the elevated instability. there is probably a better chance for a quasi linear convective system (qlcs) of gusty showers just ahead of or aligned with the cold front. these lines commonly produce strong to damaging wind gusts. our synoptic models have difficulty generating enough instability with the cold ground and shallow inversions but when push comes to shove we can usually get these winds to mix down with the frontal passage. the south winds can mix down enough to catch down slope areas and hilltops as well...especially near the lake erie lake shore. a wind advisory remains in effect tonight and if necessary we will issue severe thunderstorm warnings if we get a convective line. the models will also struggle with the warm advection. just because we have been slow to warm up during the day...we will get into the south flow tonight ahead of the front. temperatures are in the 60s across southern ohio during the afternoon and some parts of northeast ohio will likely see 60f for an hour or two tonight ahead of the cold front. the snow has been absorbing much of the rain and will do so until the dew points rise tonight. then then snow pack will begin to release all of its water. this will essentially cause a flash melt of the remaining snow. depending on the amount of additional qpf...which depends on the thunderstorms...we will see at least minor to moderate flooding on many waterways. ice jam flooding will almost certainly occur in some spots and exacerbate the flooding. residents need to be on alert tonight. the flood watch will remain in effect. temperatures by morning should be back down into the lower 30s across the i-75 corridor to the upper 30s/40 near the pa/oh border. && short term /6 am friday morning through sunday night/... subsidence and pressure rises will move across the area on friday. 850 mb winds are progged about 45 knots. we could essentially mix all of that down. will be close to high wind warning criteria (50kts/58mph) across northwest ohio. we will certainly see advisory wind gusts and it will likely be high end across northwest ohio and near the lake erie lake shore. temperatures will sneak back up to the lower/mid 40s on friday. the next cold front is due on saturday. the models have been consistent posting a little qpf with the front. will keep a low pop chance for a few rain/snow showers. much the same on sunday. some of the models develop just enough frontogenesis that i will keep a small chance of snow showers. none of it should be a big deal. highs still near 40 on saturday. colder by sunday with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s on sunday. && long term /monday through thursday/... broad trough extending across the eastern two thirds of canada and the northern united states will allow a vigorous positive vorticity maximum to race east across the forecast area monday into monday night. this feature will cause a low level jet to develop and move through the area and would expect some jet dynamics to help enhance the threat for some light snow. vorticity maximum pulls out to the east and upper level trough will begin to flatten somewhat and allow very weak ridging to move into the area by wednesday. surface high pressure will move east across the ohio valley on wednesday into wednesday night and bring some fair weather and drier air back to the region. there is the possibility that flow could be favorable for some lake effect snow in the northeast tuesday night into wednesday night and then ending for thursday. cold air advection returns and this will plunge temperatures back to the below normal readings we have been seeing all winter. the upper level pattern is relentless and shows no sign of breaking through next weekend. actually...upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the central united states and this will likely cause the trough over the eastern united states to strengthen and cause deep south cyclogenesis to occur. will have to monitor this to see if the storm system takes a bit further north track into next weekend. && aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/... first batch of moderate to heavy rain and occasional rumble of thunder continues to lift northeast at this time. models indicate we will see a dry slot for a period of time with a few scattered areas of sprinkles or showers through the afternoon. then...as cold front sweeps through the area this evening...we should see another shot of precipitation and lower ceilings. gradual improvement in ceilings and visibilities will take place behind the cold front. i decided to leave thunder out of the tafs with the frontal passage since it should be very limited at this time. problem of the day will be the wind as a low level jet stream broad maximum moves northeast into the lower great lakes. winds will be gusty out of the southwest at up to 20 gusting to 30 knots across the area. this should cause issues with mechanical turbulence at the taf sites through the end of the period. outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa friday and maybe sat in -shsn. some non-vfr possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon. && marine... gale warnings remain in effect for tomorrow into tomorrow night as low level jet pushes east into the region behind the cold front. winds should diminish fairly quickly late friday night into saturday. the flow will remain relatively quiet through sunday and then increase in speed on monday but diminish fairly quickly monday night into tuesday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...flood watch through friday morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089. wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. pa...flood watch through friday morning for paz001>003. wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday for paz003. wind advisory until 7 pm est friday for paz001-002. marine...gale warning from 7 am friday to 1 am est saturday for lez061- 142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...kosarik near term...kosarik short term...kosarik long term...lombardy aviation...lombardy marine...lombardy #toledo - #weather