toledo weather feb 20, 2014 cont severe thunderstorm watch outline update for ws 18 nws storm prediction center norman ok 920 pm est thu feb 20 2014 severe thunderstorm watch 18 is in effect until 400 am est for the following locations ohc003-011-021-023-025-033-037-039-051-057-063-065-069-091-095- 101-107-109-113-123-125-135-137-143-147-149-159-161-165-171-173- 175-210900- /o.new.kwns.sv.a.0018.140221t0220z-140221t0900z/ oh . ohio counties included are allen auglaize champaign clark clermont crawford darke defiance fulton greene hancock hardin henry logan lucas marion mercer miami montgomery ottawa paulding preble putnam sandusky seneca shelby union van wert warren williams wood wyandot hr. urgent - weather message national weather service cleveland oh 938 pm est thu feb 20 2014 .a strong cold front will move across the region overnight. southerly winds will increase this evening ahead of the front with gusts in excess of 45 mph...especially across the hilltops and the lakeshore portions of erie county pennsylvania. if a line of stronger showers and thunderstorms develops ahead of and along the front the region could see wind gusts of 50 mph or more. winds will continue to gust to more than 45 mph on friday. ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-211045- /o.ext.kcle.wi.y.0001.140221t0238z-140222t0000z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot- crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland...marion... mount gilead...mount vernon 938 pm est thu feb 20 2014 ...wind advisory now in effect until 7 pm est friday... * winds...southeast to south winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph with gusts in excess of 45 mph possible ahead of and along a cold front. as the front passes winds will shift to the southwest and continue to gust between 45 and 55 mph into friday. * timing...late this evening through friday evening. * impacts...a few limbs...trees and power lines may be blown down. light weight objects such as garbage cans will be blown around. precautionary/preparedness actions... winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. hr. fxus61 kcle 210234 aab afdcle area forecast discussion...updated national weather service cleveland oh 934 pm est thu feb 20 2014 synopsis... deepening low pressure over the mid mississippi valley will cross the western great lakes tonight and move across ontario on friday. the warm front will move north of the area this evening followed quickly by the cold front tonight. a weak cold front will cross the area on saturday. colder air will spread across much of the plains and midwest and lower great lakes early next week. && near term /until 6 am friday morning/... severe tsra watch 18 across nw ohio valid until 4 am. cold front now into eastern indiana and moving east near 40 knots. northern end of squall line just south of fwa...but with 925 mb winds of 55 knots and warm frontal boundary still lingering across nrn ohio potential for a few strong to severe tsra. original discussion... the last of the rain (the first batch) is lifting north across lake erie. all of our meso models redevelop showers across western ohio late this afternoon and early this evening but the better action is showing across the mississippi valley as thunderstorms are already racing northeast. this activity will get drawn north quickly ahead of the front. not sure how much thunderstorms will get this far north but there certainly is a chance given the low level jet and the elevated instability. there is probably a better chance for a quasi linear convective system (qlcs) of gusty showers just ahead of or aligned with the cold front. these lines commonly produce strong to damaging wind gusts. our synoptic models have difficulty generating enough instability with the cold ground and shallow inversions but when push comes to shove we can usually get these winds to mix down with the frontal passage. the south winds can mix down enough to catch down slope areas and hilltops as well...especially near the lake erie lake shore. a wind advisory remains in effect tonight and if necessary we will issue severe thunderstorm warnings if we get a convective line. the models will also struggle with the warm advection. just because we have been slow to warm up during the day...we will get into the south flow tonight ahead of the front. temperatures are in the 60s across southern ohio during the afternoon and some parts of northeast ohio will likely see 60f for an hour or two tonight ahead of the cold front. the snow has been absorbing much of the rain and will do so until the dew points rise tonight. then then snow pack will begin to release all of its water. this will essentially cause a flash melt of the remaining snow. depending on the amount of additional qpf...which depends on the thunderstorms...we will see at least minor to moderate flooding on many waterways. ice jam flooding will almost certainly occur in some spots and exacerbate the flooding. residents need to be on alert tonight. the flood watch will remain in effect. temperatures by morning should be back down into the lower 30s across the i-75 corridor to the upper 30s/40 near the pa/oh border. && short term /6 am friday morning through sunday night/... subsidence and pressure rises will move across the area on friday. 850 mb winds are progged about 45 knots. we could essentially mix all of that down. will be close to high wind warning criteria (50kts/58mph) across northwest ohio. we will certainly see advisory wind gusts and it will likely be high end across northwest ohio and near the lake erie lake shore. temperatures will sneak back up to the lower/mid 40s on friday. the next cold front is due on saturday. the models have been consistent posting a little qpf with the front. will keep a low pop chance for a few rain/snow showers. much the same on sunday. some of the models develop just enough frontogenesis that i will keep a small chance of snow showers. none of it should be a big deal. highs still near 40 on saturday. colder by sunday with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s on sunday. && long term /monday through thursday/... broad trough extending across the eastern two thirds of canada and the northern united states will allow a vigorous positive vorticity maximum to race east across the forecast area monday into monday night. this feature will cause a low level jet to develop and move through the area and would expect some jet dynamics to help enhance the threat for some light snow. vorticity maximum pulls out to the east and upper level trough will begin to flatten somewhat and allow very weak ridging to move into the area by wednesday. surface high pressure will move east across the ohio valley on wednesday into wednesday night and bring some fair weather and drier air back to the region. there is the possibility that flow could be favorable for some lake effect snow in the northeast tuesday night into wednesday night and then ending for thursday. cold air advection returns and this will plunge temperatures back to the below normal readings we have been seeing all winter. the upper level pattern is relentless and shows no sign of breaking through next weekend. actually...upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the central united states and this will likely cause the trough over the eastern united states to strengthen and cause deep south cyclogenesis to occur. will have to monitor this to see if the storm system takes a bit further north track into next weekend. && aviation /00z friday through tuesday/... lots happening next 24 hours. currently low pressure over ern ia with a warm front into north central ohio. north of the warm front conditions drop to lifr and vfr south of the boundary. currently lifr is restricted to far nwrn ohio with conditions rapidly improving to vfr across the remainder of the area. will go with ktol remaining ifr until after the cold front moves through during the 04-06z time frame after which conditions improve to mvfr and then eventually vfr by 15z. elsewhere will continue with vfr but dropping to mvfr as a wave of showers moves into the area from the ssw mid/late evening and the cold frontal passage from the west...again after the 04z-06z time frame. friday conditions will improve to vfr. another problem will be llws through the evening in the warm frontal zone transitioning to moderate to strong wsw winds to the surface late tonight and friday. outlook...non-vfr ne oh/nw pa sat in -shsn. some non-vfr possible again sunday and maybe snowbelt on mon. && marine... gale warnings remain in effect for tomorrow into tomorrow night as low level jet pushes east into the region behind the cold front. winds should diminish fairly quickly late friday night into saturday. the flow will remain relatively quiet through sunday and then increase in speed on monday but diminish fairly quickly monday night into tuesday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...flood watch through friday morning for ohz003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089. wind advisory until 7 pm est friday for ohz003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089. pa...flood watch through friday morning for paz001>003. wind advisory until 7 pm est friday for paz001>003. marine...gale warning from 7 am friday to 1 am est saturday for lez061- 142>149-162>169. && $$ synopsis...kosarik near term...djb/kosarik short term...kosarik long term...lombardy aviation...tk marine...lombardy hr. md 0131 concerning tornado watch 14... for ern half of ind...wrn/central ky...wrn oh mesoscale discussion 0131 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0819 pm cst thu feb 20 2014 areas affected...ern half of ind...wrn/central ky...wrn oh concerning...tornado watch 14... valid 210219z - 210345z the severe weather threat for tornado watch 14 continues. summary...the svr threat continues across ww 14 and in counties n/ne of the nrn ww boundary. a new ww will be issued across nrn ind and wrn oh. discussion...a cold front extends s/se from a deepening sfc low over srn wi across wrn portions of ind/ky at 02z...while an east-west warm front lifts nwd across nrn ind and oh. the cold front will continue moving quickly ewd...supported by 7 to 8 mb/2 hr pressure rises behind the front. despite modest buoyancy...stg/svr tstms in advance of the front will move newd at 45-50 kts and persist for several more hours across ww 14...aided by strong forcing for ascent associated with a newd-lifting shortwave across the upper midwest/great lakes region. within the strongly-sheared environment...multiple lines of svr tstms will continue to pose a widespread threat for damaging winds...some significant...with embedded qlcs/mesovortex low-level rotational signatures capable of producing tornadoes. tstms across nrn portions of ww 14 and just to the north...in the vicinity of the warm front...will continue to pose a risk for damaging winds into wrn oh to the east of ww 14. a new ww will be issued shortly across nrn ind and wrn oh. ..bunting/corfidi.. 02/21/2014 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...jkl...iln...lmk...iwx...ind...pah... lat...lon 39818349 38058469 36678496 36698622 36768681 37288703 38098681 38538678 38698663 39068665 39478648 39998618 40478621 41388560 41698515 41698445 41478299 40618316 39818349 #toledo - #weather