Toledo Weather - Tue, Feb 25, 2014 * http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif ** predicts 3 to 4 inches of snowfall in the Toledo area by 1:00 a.m., Sun, Mar 2. * http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif ** predicts 4 to 8 inches of total snowfall in the Toledo area by 7:00 p.m., Sun, Mar 2 Assuming that I understand the images correctly. "From":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/area-forecast-discussions.html the Cleveland NWS: q. long term /saturday through monday/... this portion of the forecast is not clear cut ... especially later in the weekend. for sunday and monday high pressure will be to the north and low pressure will move through the ohio valley. this is where it gets tricky. all the models try to push warm air up into the area. at this time will keep it just snow...but it will have to be watched. did increase the pops for saturday night and sunday as it seems like some precipitation will be occurring. q.. hr. Toledo Express Airport Feb 25, 2014 7:52 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 14 F Humidity : 84% Wind Speed : NW 3 mph Barometer : 30.16 in Dewpoint: 10 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 9 F hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Feb 25, 2014 6:51 am Today: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. West wind 6 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -12. West wind 14 to 16 mph. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 13. Wind chill values as low as -12. West wind 11 to 18 mph. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -16. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 21 mph. Thursday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday Night: A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around -6. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 13. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%. hr. fxus61 kcle 251200 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 700 am est tue feb 25 2014 synopsis... a trough will swing across the eastern great lakes late tonight. this will be followed by another arctic front wednesday night. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... although not showing up on radar well...it is snowing just about everywhere so bumped pops up to likely to categorical across entire forecast area for this morning. original discussion... a short wave will move across the area today producing a widespread synoptic light snow event. most areas will see less than an inch. snow will taper off this afternoon as the short wave moves east. snow showers will continue across the snowbelt with a widespread 1-3 inches possible. do not expect more snow than that as winds will be shifting during the day. west winds now will shift to the northwest this afternoon and then back to the west this evening. && short term /6 pm this evening through friday night/... more snow tonight...mainly across the snowbelt as a surface trough swings across the lake. in addition will need to monitor overnight lows as wind chill values will hover near advisory criteria. snow tapers off wednesday as winds shift to the southwest ahead of approaching arctic front. models in good agreement moving another arctic front across the area wednesday night. limited moisture so not sure how much widespread synoptic snow there will be. the 850mb temps plunge to -24c thursday behind the front. sub zero temps return thursday night as clouds clear out thursday night from the west as surface high pressure builds over the area. lake effect snow finally comes to an end friday with arctic high centered over the area...but temps will struggle to make it out of the teens. && long term /saturday through monday/... this portion of the forecast is not clear cut...especially later in the weekend. an inverted trof will be over the eastern portion of the region on saturday...so will continue a chance of snow. for sunday and monday high pressure will be to the north and low pressure will move through the ohio valley. this is where it gets tricky. all the models try to push warm air up into the area. at this time will keep it just snow...but it will have to be watched. did increase the pops for saturday night and sunday as it seems like some precipitation will be occurring. && long term /saturday through monday/... this portion of the forecast is not clear cut...especially later in the weekend. an inverted trof will be over the eastern portion of the region on saturday...so will continue a chance of snow. for sunday and monday high pressure will be to the north and low pressure will move through the ohio valley. this is where it gets tricky. all the models try to push warm air up into the area. at this time will keep it just snow...but it will have to be watched. did increase the pops for saturday night and sunday as it seems like some precipitation will be occurring. && aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/... a trof was moving through the region this morning causing snow showers. a ridge will build in by late morning or early afternoon and that should end the flurries/snow showers and the ceilings should improve to vfr. another front/trof will move through tonight and will cause more snow showers and mvfr to ifr conditions mainly east of mfd. outlook...non vfr at times wednesday into saturday. && marine... off and on trofs will be moving across lake erie through thursday. the winds will be strong in the cold advection with a chance at gales on thursday. today ridging will be across the lake and the winds will be on the lighter side as a surface trof approaches for late in the day. tonight in the cold advection behind the trof the winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots...possibly sustained at 30 knots for a brief time...mainly on the east end of the lake. another front/trof will move through late wednesday night into thursday morning and the winds are stronger with this system according to the gfs. at least a brief period of gale force winds are possible. will mention it in the hwo. high pressure will build over the lake by friday and then move east by friday night. for the weekend a ridge will be over the northern lakes and low pressure over the ohio valley. the winds will be well below gale force. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...djb short term...djb long term...kieltyka aviation...kieltyka marine...kieltyka hr. fzus51 kcle 250841 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 341 am est tue feb 25 2014 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>146-251515- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh- 341 am est tue feb 25 2014 today...west winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. cloudy with a chance of snow showers. tonight...west winds 10 to 20 knots. mostly cloudy. wednesday...west winds 10 to 20 knots. partly sunny. wednesday night...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. mostly cloudy. waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered. see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday. the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees and off erie 34 degrees. $$ lez147>149-251515- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- conneaut oh to ripley ny- 341 am est tue feb 25 2014 today...west winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest. occasional snow showers. tonight...southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots. snow showers likely. wednesday...west winds 15 to 25 knots. occasional snow showers in the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. wednesday night...southwest winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. cloudy with a chance of snow showers. waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered. see lake erie open lakes forecast for thursday through saturday. the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees and off erie 34 degrees. $$ hr. Forecast.io hi-lo-temp Toledo predictions as of 9:00 a.m., Feb 25: * today, Tue, Feb 25 : 24 and 13 * Wed, Feb 26 : 12 and 3 * Thu, Feb 27 : 13 and -1 * Fri, Feb 28 : 19 and -10 * Sat, Mar 1 : 25 and 16 * Sun, Mar 2 : 15 and 10 * Mon, Mar 3 : 19 and 12 * Tue, Mar 4 : 21 and 9 hr. Public Information Statement Statement as of 1:53 PM EST on February 25, 2014 ... Reported ice jam locations across the region as of 1 PM Tuesday... This is an update to the river ice situations across the region. The ice locations ongoing will likely move very little as the cold snap this week supports ice growth. It is important to report ice jams to the National Weather Service or your local law enforcement. When a thaw and/or rain event occurs these areas will be of heightened risk for flash flooding. Below is a list of ongoing ice jams in the region: river/Creek... ... ... ... County... ... ... Ice jam site Grand River... ... ... .lake, OH... ... ... Painesville-main St bridge iced to the lake Sandusky river... ... .Seneca,OH... ... ..pleasant-near Fort Seneca French Creek... ... ... Crawford,PA... ... Hayfield/Vernon-S Mosiertown Rd for 1/2 mile Maumee River... ... ... Wood/Lucas,OH... .2 miles upstream of Grand Rapids Maumee River... ... ... Wood/Lucas,OH... .Perrysburg-Fort Hood park iced to the lake Portage River... ... ..wood/Ottawa,OH... Elmore iced to the Lake Vermilion river... ... Lorain,OH... ... ..Vermilion/Mill Hollow mp Vermilion river... ... Erie,OH... ... ... .Vermilion/Railroad bridges (2) iced to the lake chagrin River... ... ..Lake,OH... ... ... .Willoughby-glison Pkwy bridge iced to the Lake Huron river... ... ... .Erie, OH... ... ... Milan-Mason Rd bridge (n of I-90) iced to the lake Mahoning river... ... .Trumbull,OH... ... Warren/Leavittsburg-2 ice jams near Parkman Rd bridge Sandusky river... ... .Sandusky,OH... ... N of Fremont-around I-90 bridge iced to the lake Below is a list of earlier reported and since broken-up ice jams: river/Creek... ... ... ... County... ... ... Ice jam site Rocky River... ... ... ..Cuyahoga,OH... ..Rocky River Marina Huron river... ... ... ..Erie,OH... ... ... Milan Sandusky river... ... ..Seneca,OH... ... .Tiffin Mohican river... ... ... Knox,OH... ... ... Greer Nimishillen creek... ..Stark,OH... ... ..Louisville Elk Creek... ... ... ... .Erie, PA... ... ..Girard Black River... ... ... .Lorain... ... ... ..Elyria Sandusky river... ... .Sandusky... ... ... Fremont French Creek... ... ... .Crawford,PA... ..Saegertown/Meadville Portage River... ... ..wood/Ottawa,OH... Woodville Portage River... ... ..wood/Ottawa,OH... Pemberville Maumee River... ... ... .Lucas,OH... ... ..Toledo (i-475 bridge) Please report ice jams or ice jam related flooding to your local law enforcement or the National Weather Service. You can share your report at the U.S. National Weather Service Cleveland facebook Page. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 826 am est tue feb 25 2014 ohz003-006-017-261330- lucas-wood-hancock- 826 am est tue feb 25 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. a wind chill advisory may be needed tonight. the maumee river will continue to slowly rise throughout the day and night into minor flood stage. the ice on the river may jam causing erratic rises and falls in the river. those with interests on the river should carefully monitor and report any ice jams or ice jam related flooding to local law enforcement. .days two through seven...wednesday through monday. a wind chill advisory will likely be needed wednesday night and thursday night as wind chills will dip to 10 to 15 degrees below zero. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. flood statement national weather service cleveland oh 1045 am est tue feb 25 2014 ...the flood warning continues for the following rivers in ohio... vermilion river near vermilion maumee river at waterville scioto river near prospect precautionary/preparedness actions... never drive your car through flooded roadways. the water may be deeper than it appears. turn around...don`t drown! stay tuned to noaa weather radio and other local media for further details and updates. && ohc095-173-252344- /o.ext.kcle.fl.w.0016.000000t0000z-140227t0730z/ /wtvo1.1.er.140222t0603z.140223t0730z.140227t0130z.no/ 1045 am est tue feb 25 2014 the flood warning continues for the maumee river at waterville. * at 10:00 am tuesday the stage was 9.5 feet. * flood stage is 9.0 feet. * minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * forecast...the river will rise to near 10.1 feet by late tonight. the river will fall below flood stage wednesday evening. the extensive ice coverage on the river and upstream of waterville will pose a heightened risk of ice jams. should a jam develop...the river could rise and fall rapidly. * at 9.0 feet...flooding occurs in lowland areas near the river. hr. fxus61 kcle 252059 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 359 pm est tue feb 25 2014 synopsis... a couple clipper type storm systems will move across the region through the remainder of the week with colder temperatures in the wake of each. a strong storm system may move into the region saturday night into sunday. && near term /until 6 am wednesday morning/... another trough will move across the area this evening. expect lift to increase ahead of it early with light snow possible across most of the region. we then should see increased cold advection over the great lakes which should get some lake effect snow started near or shortly after midnight. the best accumulations will be across northeast ohio into nw pa. since winds are more from the northwest the lake effect snow may reach back to lorain and medina counties. 2 to 4 inches of snow will be possible in the more persistent lake bands that develop. low temperature forecast is difficult with some uncertainty about how quick the cold advection kicks in overnight. have gone with the coldest temperatures across the west where the arctic air arrives the earliest. && short term /6 am wednesday morning through friday night/... it will be cold in the morning with west to northwest winds bringing wind chills down close to advisory levels. it will be marginal and if it gets a bit colder across the west later shifts may need to issue an advisory. it will feel even colder thursday morning with strong winds in the wake of the next clipper. the stronger winds and slightly colder temperatures will likely cause wind chills closer to minus 15. thus a wind chill advisory will likely be need for thursday morning. otherwise this next clipper will bring another round of light snow to much of the area toward sunrise on thursday with another round of lake effect snow in its wake. the snow that does occur will be very fluffy with ratios of 25:1 to 35:1 likely. high pressure should build into the region enough by thursday night to shut down the lake effect snow. the question is how much of the cloud cover will dissipate by friday morning. if it clears out all locations will see below zero. it already appears that some of the western areas will see minus ten or colder. && long term /saturday through tuesday/... active weather still looks on track for the upcoming weekend. we will be watching the evolution of a trough over the desert southwest ahead of a broad trough that gradually sinks south out of canada. models have sped up considerably over the last 24 hours and continue to show timing differences. the first opportunity for light snow will come on saturday as an elongated surface trough moves across the area with a chance of light snow. shortwave energy then starts streaming over the area in advance of the upper low bringing another round of snow to the area saturday night. low pressure will eventually track through the ohio valley bringing a round of significant precipitation. at this time models are keeping us on the cold side of the system which could result in a snowstorm sometime during the sunday through monday time frame. at times models have pulled enough warm air north that we could end up with mixed precipitation. for now kept the forecast as all snow but this could change. we will need to keep an eye on timing and track of this potential storm throughout the week. && aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/... bkn-ovc mvfr stratocu is in place across the area this afternoon with a few light snow showers lingering across nrn ohio. skies may lift to vfr at times this afternoon. an arctic cold front will push south across the area this evening with snow showers increasing from north to south from 02z-06z. visibilities will generally be 5-6 miles in nw ohio and ifr at times in ne ohio...especially at cle/eri. snow will linger into wednesday morning near the lake. westerly winds will be 10-15 knots...veering to wnw behind the front. outlook...non vfr at times wednesday into saturday. && marine... a series of fronts will move across the lake this week. southwest winds of 20-25 knots will veer to northwest late tonight with the passage of an arctic front. winds will back to southwesterly again on wednesday night and increase to near 30 knots. winds will shift to the northwest early thursday and increase to gale force on the east half of the lake. a gale watch has been issued for thursday. there is a chance the gale watch may need to be expanded to the whole lake or started earlier if the southwest flow ahead of the low ramps up enough. winds will decrease quickly towards friday morning as strong high pressure will builds overhead from the west. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...gale watch from late wednesday night through thursday evening for lez061-146>149-166>169. && $$ synopsis...mullen near term...mullen short term...mullen long term...kec aviation...kec marine...kec #toledo - #weather