Toledo Weather - Mar 1, 2014 Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Mar 1, 2014 6:44 am Today: A slight chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight: Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 15. North wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sunday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -9. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 17. North wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 0. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Friday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. hr. fxus61 kcle 011145 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 645 am est sat mar 1 2014 synopsis... a cold front across the central great lakes to the mississippi valley will drop southeast across the area today. the front will stall across kentucky and west virginia sunday. low pressure will come out of texas sunday and move northeast along the front. high pressure will build in on monday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... update...most of the moisture should remain to our northwest this afternoon however just didn't like how the radar return was increasing so boosted pops to chance for the afternoon in the northwest. kept all other areas at slight chance. no other changes. original...for today a cold front over the central great lakes will drop across the area. snow showers currently are across wisconsin and nrn lower mi with patchy cloud/virga return south of those areas. as the front drops across the area today moisture will increase although with dewpoints as low as they are am skeptical that we will see a lot of snow. looking at bufkit forecast soundings most soundings show low level dry air with the airmass moistening up above. will therefore go with mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance of rain or snow for the afternoon. guidance highs of mid 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast reasonable. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... the short term begins with the cold front just south of the cwa and moisture deepening across the area from the west. the gfs is faster here with the model indicating snow across much of the area by 00z this evening while the nam has it just about to move in. have shaded toward the drier nam given the slight chance pop during the day saturday but the small model differences in moisture not relevant as both show deep moisture and categorical pops for the evening and the overnight. temps across the north favor any rain/mix changing back to snow through the early evening. further south however thicknesses support a period of mixed precip. favor the cooler gfs with any mix remaining mainly across the far south. will continue with categorical pops for snow sunday...tapering from the north sunday night as drier air and high pressure build in. monday and monday night high pressure builds across the area and will go with a dry forecast. tuesday moisture increases to our north. will go with slight chance pops across the northeast...increasing to chance pops tuesday night. sunday through tuesday temperatures...below normal. && long term /wednesday through friday/... the models show high pressure extending south into the area for wed but also show a band of moisture associated with a back door cold front still across the area. will carry a slight chance for light snow wed into wed night more in line with guidance pops while temps stay below normal. for fri...a southern system in a split flow should stay far enough south of the area to keep precip from that system out of the area. however...a weak upper trough in the northern flow with a surface cold front may get close enough to the nw for some light rain by late in the day fri or fri night.as temps jump all the way into the mid to upper 30s. && aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/... vfr should generally prevail until this evening when snow will then spread se across the area. there could be some sct flurries or sprinkles as a cold front passes thru today while sw winds turn to the nw then n to nne tonight. would think conditions will deteriorate down to ifr within 2 to 4 hours of the onset of the snow during the 1st half of the night. outlook...non-vfr sunday...and possibly into monday in widespread accumulating snow. && marine... a cold front crossing the lake today will shift the ssw flow of 10 to 15 knots to nw then north into tonight will winds increase to mainly 15 to 20 knots. high pressure moves into the lake by mon eve to diminish the flow then a back door cold front slides south across the lake tue so there should be some increase in a ne flow into wed. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter storm watch from this evening through monday morning for ohz017-027>033-036>038-047. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...tk near term...tk short term...tk long term...adams aviation...lombardy marine...adams hr. fzus51 kcle 010804 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 304 am est sat mar 1 2014 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>149-011530- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva- on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 304 am est sat mar 1 2014 today...southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. mostly cloudy. a slight chance of snow late. tonight...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming north. snow. sunday...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming north. snow. sunday night...north winds 10 to 15 knots. mostly cloudy. a chance of snow in the evening. waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered. see lake erie open lakes forecast for monday through wednesday. the water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees...off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 34 degrees. $$ hr. flus41 kcle 011127 hwocle hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 627 am est sat mar 1 2014 ohz003-006>014-018>023-089-paz001>003-021130- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-crawford pa- 627 am est sat mar 1 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. day one...today and tonight. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. days two through seven...sunday through friday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ ohz017-027>033-036>038-047-021130- hancock-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning- marion-morrow-holmes-knox- 627 am est sat mar 1 2014 ..winter storm watch in effect from this evening through monday morning... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter storm watch. days two through seven...sunday through friday. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. winter storm watch. spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ for lake erie. day one...today and tonight. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. days two through seven...sunday through friday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. Currently, no weather watches nor advisories exist for metro Toledo. Same for the northern quarter of Ohio. The rest of the state is under a Winter Storm Watch. "For the Findlay area":http://www.wunderground.com/US/OH/017.html : q. Winter Storm Watch now in effect from this evening through Monday morning. * accumulations... a storm total snowfall of 6 to 8 inches is expected. A period of freezing rain or sleet is also possible tonight. * Timing... snow will move in this evening... possibly mixing with freezing rain and sleet both this evening and overnight. Snow will continue heavy at times Sunday into Sunday night before tapering off by Monday morning. * Winds... northerly at 10 to 20 mph. q.. br. "Toledo forecast":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/forecast.html : bq. *Tonight:* Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 15. North wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of *2 to 4 inches* possible. bq. *Sunday:* Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of *1 to 3 inches* possible. bq. *Sunday Night:* A chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -9. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 1222 pm est sat mar 1 2014 ohz003-006>014-018>023-089-paz001>003-021730- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-crawford pa- 1222 pm est sat mar 1 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...this afternoon and tonight. accumulating snow is expected tonight as a cold front moves south across the area. most areas will see 1 to 3 inches of snow overnight with snow continuing into sunday. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. accumulating snow will linger into sunday with additional accumulations of 1 to 4 inches...for storm totals in the 2 to 6 inch range. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Mar 1, 2014 6:15 pm Tonight: Snow. Low around 14. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sunday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -7. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as -10. North wind 5 to 9 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -1. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 7. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Friday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. hr. fxus61 kcle 012352 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 652 pm est sat mar 1 2014 synopsis... a cold front will push south of the area tonight. a wave of low pressure will track northeast through the tennessee valley on sunday morning with a stronger low pressure system tracking south of the appalachians sunday night and monday. meanwhile strong high pressure will expand from the northern plains over the great lakes through sunday night. && near term /through sunday/... snow is beginning to spread across the southern portions of lower michigan at this time. models indicate upper level positive vorticity maximum will push into the forecast area over the next several hours along with some deeper mean relative humidity. this should help in blossoming snow across the northern tier counties between now and midnight. so...current forecast looks reasonable and will make only minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and dew points. previous discussion... fairly large changes to the forecast for the upcoming storm with this package. the low pressure system that will move through the tennessee valley from sunday night into monday will be far enough south that it is expected to have little impact on our forecast area. without that as a contributing factor...the forecast calls for less snow with an end time by sunday evening. a winter weather advisory has been issued for all of nrn oh except ashtabula county. snowfall totals will range from 3 to 7 inches...with the highest in the south. water vapor imagery shows a plume of moisture streaming northeast across the plains ahead of a closed upper low off the southern california coast. this moisture and energy will stream across the southern great lakes region over the next 24 hours within an area of confluent flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough dropping south out of canada. upstream radars shows precipitation approaching lake michigan...with snow expected to overspread nrn ohio by midnight. models show additional energy and a jet streak approaching from the west for late tonight and sunday morning. in the low levels...a cold front will move south across the area this evening leaving a tight baroclinic zone in place through 800mb. temperatures this afternoon peaked in the mid 40s but will fall quickly through the evening as precip begins. surface temperatures will drop first leaving a brief window of time near the onset of precipitation where we could see rain or even sleet from marion to youngstown. any icing will be minimal this evening but could create a few slick spots...mainly between 10 pm and 2 am. after that time expect the column to cool enough that all areas should see snow. models soundings show steep low level rates above 600mb which coincides well with the dendritic growth zone. the snow is expected to come in waves as the shortwaves move through the flow aloft...heaviest in nw ohio overnight...and heaviest in the southern areas late tonight and sunday. we will have to keep an eye on snowfall totals in the southern counties as specific humidities increase to near 4 g/kg and upper level divergence strengthens on sunday. && short term /sunday night through monday night/... dont expect to much additional accumulation from lake effect snow as the system pulls away sunday night as the airmass really dries out quickly. a few light snow showers or flurries will linger...as the ridge builds to the north and there is a little extra shoreline convergence. high pressure expands over the southern great lakes on monday with skies clearing late in the day. monday night will be cold with some locations dipping below zero again. && long term /tuesday through saturday/... a minor and somewhat brief warm up for late in the week and next saturday...but no major storms are anticipated. in the meantime below normal temperatures. high pressure will be over the area to start. some nuisance precipitation could occur in the snow belt tuesday with a low chance everywhere tuesday night as a weak front sags in from the north. a threat will linger into wednesday and then dry weather until friday afternoon through saturday. the models are not in complete agreement on this period. the gfs moves a front through while the ecmwf moves a low up the east coast. none the less some low chance pops. the qpf amounts will be light and temperatures will not get real warm...so some runoff from snow melt will occur...so at this time not expecting any major ice jam flooding...but some of the ice jams may try to move again. this threat will be monitored. && aviation /00z sunday through thursday/... cold front continues to sag southward across the area with cooler air in its wake. mvfr ceilings are beginning to fill in behind the front across nw ohio and should spread to the south and east through 06z. lift will increase across nw ohio through the evening with snow developing. the snow will slowly spread to the east and south through the overnight. some ifr snow will develop for 2 to 4 hours after 06z across the west and toward 12z across the central areas. most locations will only see 1 to 3 inches but localized amounts of 4 to 5 inches may occur across the south. conditions will improve sunday afternoon. outlook...non-vfr sunday evening. non vfr tuesday night into wednesday. && marine... a cold front will sag south across lake erie later today and will shift the generally light flow from the sw to the nw tonight. by sunday morning the winds will increase to around 15 to 20 knots. high pressure will quickly build in behind the front wed afternoon and the winds will respond by decreasing to 5 to 15 knots. by thu evening the high will be located off the new england coast and the winds will begin to turn to the north as a low pressure system deepens to the south of the hudson bay. meanwhile a strong low pressure system will move up the eastern seaboard early next weekend...but its effects will be few if any across le. the lake remains almost completely ice covered. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est sunday for ohz003- 006>013-017>020. winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est sunday for ohz021>023-027>033-036>038-047. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...lombardy short term...kec long term...kieltyka aviation...mullen marine...mayers hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 954 pm est sat mar 1 2014 ...winter storm to move across the region tonight and sunday... .snow will continue to move into the area as a wave of low pressure moves along the front. snow will diminish sunday evening as drier air and high pressure spreads into the area from the north. snowfall associated with the low pressure system moving through the tennessee valley on sunday night will remain mostly south of the forecast area. ohz003-006>013-017>020-021100- /o.con.kcle.ww.y.0011.000000t0000z-140302t1800z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- hancock-seneca-huron-medina- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon... findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina 954 pm est sat mar 1 2014 ...winter weather advisory remains in effect until 1 pm est sunday... * accumulations...storm total snowfall of 2 to 5 inches. * timing...snow will continue through sunday morning and then taper off during the early afternoon. * visibilities...visibilities will gradually drop to a half mile or less overnight. * winds...north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph. * temperatures...falling to the upper teens overnight and holding near 20 on sunday. * impacts...roads will become snow covered and travel will be slow overnight and sunday morning. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter weather advisory is normally issued for a variety of winter weather conditions such as light snow... blowing snow... sleet... freezing rain and wind chills. while the weather will be significant... the word advisory implies that severe winter weather is not anticipated. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. #toledo - #weather