Toledo Weather - Thu, Mar 6, 2014 TOL: Mar 6, 2014 7:52 am Weather : Mostly Cloudy Temperature : 14 F Humidity : 73% Wind Speed : E 12 mph Barometer : 30.41 in Dewpoint: 7 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 0 F hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Mar 6, 2014 6:50 am Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Saturday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. hr. fxus61 kcle 061159 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 659 am est thu mar 6 2014 synopsis... arctic high pressure over eastern canada will move east and off the east coast tonight. a south flow with warmer temperatures will develop as the high moves east. a cold front will sag south across the region saturday morning. high pressure will build over the lower great lakes by sunday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... made a few adjustments to the hourly temps and sky cover for the early morning update otherwise the forecast seems on track. earlier discussion... the large area of arctic surface high pressure over eastern canada will slide east today. as it does so...the boundary flow will come around from the east southeast. this will help moderate temps...mainly across ne oh... where the flow will become down slope as an inverted trough develops. the forecast will keep toward the colder temperature guidance across nw ohio and extreme nw pa (mid/upper 20s) and go with the warmer guidance for ne oh (lower 30s). meanwhile the trof aloft over the midwest will slowly move east. not much upward motion progged and looking upstream we find only patches of cloud cover... mostly between 050-100. cannot rule out a snow flake or a little virga this morning but will not mention anything in the forecast. the clouds should thin this afternoon as subsidence increases. && short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/... we should actually see weather that is more seasonable the next few days. temperatures will drop off this evening but should begin to rise tonight as the south wind begins to pick up. sunshine and warmer for friday. will go a few degrees above guidance friday since we should be in a zone of subsidence between the low along the southeast coast and the approaching cold front over the great lakes. high clouds will begin to increase in the afternoon. most of the models agree that the next cold front will begin to slide south across the area early saturday morning. the models have also been consistent in generating post frontal precipitation. it is likely the front will be shallow at first. some rain may occur but as it gets colder aloft we should see the precipitation turn to snow. hopefully there will be no freezing rain in between. highs on saturday in the 30s. warm advection will begin quickly on sunday as a warm front develops across the great lakes. a rain or snow shower is possible sunday night as the next short wave begins to dive across the great lakes. forecast temperatures will be relatively close to guidance except a couple of degrees colder across the far northern counties... especially around toledo and the snowbelt where there will still be decent snow cover. && long term /monday through wednesday/... are we in for a treat or is this just winter saying it is not finished yet. upper level pattern made a significant change in the extended periods. monday appears the region will be under the influence of a nearly zonal flow across the united states and not stuck in one of the lazy upper level troughs we have seen all winter as a result of the sloppy polar jet stream. sure enough...the sloppiness looks like it will return in earnest by wednesday as a major ridge amplifies dramatically over the western united states causing a trough to dig into the eastern united states by thursday morning. unfortunately...this will result in another oklahoma panhandle hook that will thankfully remain well south of the forecast area. this feature could brush our area by weeks end. until then...weak low pressure will race east across the northern great lakes by monday night into tuesday. this feature will be starved for moisture as it makes its way east but with upper level support could ring out a few snow or rain showers as it moves by. so will keep the mention of precipitation in for monday. stationary front sets up over the region on tuesday and some limited moisture could stream northeast along the boundary and keep the threat for precipitation going through wednesday and then exit to the east on thursday. big question during this period is where the boundary will be to make the difference between 30s and well into the 40s for highs through the period. && aviation /12z thursday through monday/... large area of high pressure at the surface continues to dominate the weather across the region. however...an upper level disturbance will move east across the area this morning and produce some mid and high level clouds. otherwise...clearing will take place tonight. winds will be fairly light around 8 to 10 knots at all taf sites except erie. expecting 10 to 15 knot winds there today. generally variable winds all areas tonight. outlook...non vfr possible late friday night into early sunday...then again monday. && marine... high pressure will gradually shift off to the east through friday afternoon setting up a southerly component to the wind. then...weak low pressure moves by to the north forcing a weak cold front across the area followed by more high pressure. the secondary high will build south across the central united states by sunday and extend a ridge northeast over the lake. the high will then become resident over florida by monday while weak low pressure quickly moves southeast into the great lakes region. pressure gradient across the lake will rise and fall through the period. winds will gradually weaken with time by friday night and remain generally light through sunday. a southwesterly flow will develop for monday as winds increase to around 15 knots. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...kosarik near term...kosarik short term...kosarik long term...lombardy aviation...lombardy marine...lombardy hr. fzus51 kcle 060836 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 336 am est thu mar 6 2014 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>149-061515- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva- on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 336 am est thu mar 6 2014 today...east winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. partly sunny. tonight...east winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast and increasing to 10 to 20 knots. mostly clear. friday...south winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less. mostly sunny. friday night...south winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered. see lake erie open lakes forecast for saturday through monday. the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 33 degrees. $$ lombardy hr. !http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2783/12969569003_92d4575354_o.png! hr. 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