Toledo Weather - Mon, Mar 10, 2014 hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 358 am edt mon mar 10 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-110800- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 358 am edt mon mar 10 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .days two through seven...tuesday through sunday. a low moving up the ohio valley tuesday night and wednesday may produce significant snow across the area. initially...the precipitation will start as rain then change over to all snow at some point wednesday morning. still uncertainty in the exact track of the low but the heaviest snowfall...greater than 4 inches...looks to be near and north of a line from findlay to meadville. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Mar 10, 2014 8:48 am Today: A slight chance of light rain before 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind 6 to 14 mph. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow. Low around 28. North wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday: Snow. High near 29. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. hr. fxus61 kcle 101249 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 849 am edt mon mar 10 2014 synopsis... a low will move across ontario today with a cold front moving across the region late this afternoon into the evening. this front will stall across southern ohio and become the track for low pressure that will move eastward along the ohio river valley on wednesday. high pressure will briefly ridge across the area on thursday before another low moves across ontario on friday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... update...updated...and then corrected with another update...to remove snow from the forecast and to adjust pops to account for the area of light rain drifting southeast across the western and central counties. also changed wording from showery to stratiform. (rw to r). previous discussion... a couple pieces of jet energy will move across the area today. the first is moving into western ny now with some lift over the region. the precipitation on radar is likely not reaching the surface because of the dry layer in the 00z soundings. have mentioned some sprinkles for a decent portion of the area. there could be a few flurries across extreme ne ohio into inland nw pa. low pressure will then move across ontario through the day with breezy conditions expected through the afternoon. as it approaches lift will increase but believe any rain will be light. the southwesterly winds will allow the region to warm nicely with highs above average for a change. most locations will warm into the 50s...except where there is more snowpack across the toledo area and nw pa. these locations will likely remain in the 40s. && short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... as a weak frontal boundary passes this evening we could see some lake induced light rain/sprinkles from the central lakeshore counties northeast into nw pa. it may end up just being some increased cloud cover off of the lakes. temperatures will remain above average in the wake of the front tonight with lows generally in the middle and upper 30s. tuesday will be another warm day as the next storm system takes shape across the southern plains. highs should once again reach the 50s for most inland locations. cooler near the lake with the likelihood of a lake breeze. cloud cover will thicken and lower tuesday night as the low moves up the ohio river valley. this should help to keep in some of the afternoon warmth over the region through much of tuesday night. so with that said we believe most of the region will see rain into the overnight hours of tuesday night. however by sunrise on wednesday the colder air will be ready to spread across the region in the wake of the low. wrap around moisture will flow into the colder air and produce a period of moderate to maybe heavy snowfall. the snow will move into nw ohio first then spread eastward into the afternoon. at this point it appears that the heaviest swath of snow will be near and north of a line from findlay to meadville. still enough uncertainty with the track and precipitation type to keep us from pinpointing snow amounts. however 4+ inches of snow will be possible in the swath of heavier snow. model trends this winter season have been too far south with several of the storm systems. this combined with some of the ensemble guidance indicating a further north track of the 850 mb low make us think that much of the eastern half of the county warning area could be rain into mid morning on wednesday. stay tuned for more details over the next 24 hours. the low should be east of the region by wednesday night with some lake effect snow showers lingering into at least thursday morning. it will be much colder with lows into the single digits by thursday morning. if the region can get some sunshine on thursday then most locations will be able to warm into the 20s. && long term /friday through sunday/... southwesterly flow and warm advection will ramp up on friday ahead of a low pressure system dropping south out of canada. highs should reach 40 degrees again all areas...upper 40s in our southern counties. the cold front associated with the low will move south across the area late friday night bringing a chance of snow showers and temperatures dropping back below normal for the weekend. the initial surge of cold air is not that strong...but a secondary push will arrive late in the weekend with highs on monday struggling to reach 30 degrees. && aviation /12z monday through friday/... regional radars show precipitation trying to increase in coverage however little of this has been reaching the ground with a dry sub-cloud layer. a light shower or sprinkle is possible at the taf sites...mainly through 16z...before drier air spreads in from the west. conditions should remain vfr in light showers with ceilings briefly dropping to 4-5k feet. otherwise southwest winds near 10-12 knots this morning will gust to 20-25 knots this afternoon... despite a strong low level inverstion with stronger winds alfot. sites in ne oh/nw pa may see mvfr clouds develop downwind of lake erie with the passage of a trough tonight. outlook...non vfr likely tuesday night in rain with accumulating snow on wednesday. && marine... southwesterly winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue on the lake today...shifting to westerly and increasing to 25 knots on the east end of the lake with the passage of a trough this evening. winds will drop off by tuesday morning to 5 to 15 knots as low pressure pulls away to the east and weak ridging builds over the lake. by midweek we will be watching a low pressure system that will strengthen as it tracks northeast through the ohio valley. there is some potential for north winds to approach gale force for a brief period of time on wednesday as this system passes to the south but will keep winds at 30 knots in the forecast for now. uncertainty remains in the exact track and strength of this storm system. high pressure will build over the lake on thursday followed by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of low pressure approaching from the north on friday. hr. Winter Storm Watches are up for the western half of the Toledo metro area and the rest of NW OH. Cleveland should be following suit at some point. Heavy snow main threat...someone could see 6-12" out of it. Toledo metro area... 12Z NAM: 6-8" 12Z GFS: 10-15" 12Z GEM: 2-6" 12Z ECMWF: 4-7" ! posted by JustaSooner on Mar 10, 2014 at 03:42:00 pm # + hr. Next threat of snow is next Sunday/Monday. ECMWF kicks out at least another 5-7" of snow for much of the area. Still a long ways out to worry about though. It goes crazy over Indiana dropping up to 15" of snow over from Fort Wayne down to Indy. ! posted by JustaSooner on Mar 10, 2014 at 03:47:59 pm # + hr. urgent - winter weather message national weather service cleveland oh 350 pm edt mon mar 10 2014 .low pressure will move through the lower ohio valley tuesday night and early wednesday. rain will move into the area ahead of the low tuesday night but the rain will change to snow overnight and wednesday across the area as colder air moves in behind the low. a period of freezing rain is also possible before changing to all snow. based on the current track of the storm...snowfall should be highest across northern ohio into northwest pennsylvania with decreasing amounts further south. a glaze of ice however will also be possible. ohz003-006>009-017>019-110400- /o.new.kcle.ws.a.0005.140312t0000z-140313t0000z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...findlay...tiffin...norwalk 350 pm edt mon mar 10 2014 ...winter storm watch in effect from tuesday evening through wednesday evening... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a winter storm watch...which is in effect from tuesday evening through wednesday evening. * accumulations...6 to 8 inches of snow along with a glaze of ice. * timing...tuesday evening through early wednesday evening. * winds...north 15 to 25 mph. * impacts...accumulating snow along with a glaze of ice will slow travel across the region and make any untreated surfaces slick. precautionary/preparedness actions... a winter storm watch means that heavy snow is possible. if you are within the watch area...remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. stay tuned to the national weather service or the local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings. hr. Toledo Express Airport: Mar 10, 2014 3:52 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 47 F Humidity : 63% Wind Speed : SW 20 mph - Gust 31 mph Barometer : 29.63 in Dewpoint: 35 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 40 F hr. fxus61 kcle 102012 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 412 pm edt mon mar 10 2014 synopsis... low pressure will move from ontario into quebec overnight and drag a weak cold front into the area. another low will develop in the central plains and move along the front through the lower ohio valley tuesday night and early wednesday. high pressure will build in on thursday. && near term /until 6 am tuesday morning/... clearing skies this afternoon so will continue with pc overnight. went with lows close to continuity which is near to a couple degrees below mav guidance. && short term /6 am tuesday morning through thursday night/... issued watch for tuesday night through wednesday. for tuesday expect clouds to move in quickly. moisture streaming in on the north side of the front stalled across central ohio will eventually have enough moisture to warrant a slight chance across the north in the late afternoon. will have this in the graphics but will not be in the text forecast. for tuesday night...models close but the ecmwf is coldest transitioning the rain to snow across the area. models show precip beginning as all rain tuesday evening changing to snow after midnight from the northwest. good chance for a period of zr before the change. transition will take into wednesday morning however as models really just show nwrn and possibly the nrn fringe of counties changing to snow through the night. wednesday behind the low cold air will come in quickly changing the rain to snow from the north. again...will maintain a couple hours of zr in the graphics and text. drier air will move in from the northwest beginning wednesday afternoon. will hang onto likely pops snow belt wednesday evening but will drop as moisture exits after midnight. wednesday night and thursday dry but well below normal with a short lived arctic intrusion across the area. && long term /friday through monday/... we should recover on friday as a decent southwest flow develops ahead of the next front. normally in this pattern in mid march i would forecast high temperatures in the lower/mid 50s but we will have snow on the ground to melt so will forecast highs from the mid 40s to around 50 with a varying amount of mid and high clouds... probably at least partial sunshine. the next front will drop across the area on saturday. actually it may just be a trough...with a secondary cold front later in the day. there will likely be a chance for a few rain or snow showers...v eventually getting cold enough aloft for all snow showers later. all of the models indicate another arctic high building south on sunday. there should be enough anticyclonic flow to minimize the threat of lake effect snow showers. clouds will probably be on the increase though as all of the models show a wave developing on the front. not sure if the system will slip south of the area relatively quickly or turn into a snow storm. unfortunately it seems as though we will be on the cold side of the system regardless so early indications are that it will be a cold saint patricks day. && aviation /18z monday through saturday/... the weak short wave is southeast of the area. patches of mid clouds will move east by late afternoon. high clouds will begin to increase again tonight. winds my lighten up enough for patchy fog...mainly across northwest ohio early tuesday morning. mid and high clouds will increase on tuesday but conditions will remain vfr. outlook...non vfr developing tuesday night with rain changing to snow. non-vfr with accumulating snow on wednesday. && marine... moderate southwest flow on lake erie will gradually relax as the gradient weakens ahead of a cold front. the cold front will sag across the lake tuesday...probably in the morning. the wind will veer to the north and northeast behind the front. a panhandle hook low pressure system will develop on the front and track across the ohio valley on wednesday. the wind on lake erie always gets stronger than the guidance with these lows and we should approach gale force winds from the north to northeast on wednesday. arctic high pressure will build down from the north wednesday night into thursday. as fast as the high builds in by thursday... it will retreat on friday as a warm front sweeps across the great lakes. the south to southwest flow will increase on friday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...winter storm watch from late tuesday night through late wednesday night for ohz010>014-089. winter storm watch from tuesday evening through wednesday evening for ohz003-006>009-017>019. winter storm watch from wednesday morning through late wednesday night for ohz020>023-029>031. winter storm watch from wednesday morning through wednesday evening for ohz027-028-036-037. pa...winter storm watch from late tuesday night through late wednesday night for paz001>003. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...tk near term...tk short term...tk long term...kosarik aviation...kosarik marine...kosarik hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Mar 10, 2014 3:32 pm Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind 7 to 15 mph. Tuesday: Cloudy, with a high near 45. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning. Tuesday Night: Rain and snow before 2am, then snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Low around 26. Northeast wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. High near 27. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. North wind 10 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%. #toledo - #weather