Toledo Weather - Mon, Mar 17, 2014 Patchy snow cover in our West Toledo neighborhood. Officially, the snow dept would probably be zero. hr. flood statement national weather service cleveland oh 737 am edt mon mar 17 2014 ohc095-173-172200- /o.con.kcle.fa.w.0023.000000t0000z-140317t2200z/ /00000.0.ij.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/ wood oh-lucas oh- 737 am edt mon mar 17 2014 ...flood warning remains in effect for ice jam flooding in southwestern lucas and northwestern wood counties until 600 pm edt monday... the river gage on the maumee river at waterville continued to indicate an ice jam on the river. sunday evening the jam just west of grand rapids broke and began to move downstream. this ice will likely jam again in the narrow channels created by the islands within the river. no ice jam flooding was reported to the national weather service during the night. water backing up behind the ice jam will cause flooding to occur in the warned area. there is also the threat of flooding downstream of the ice jam once it breaks up. precautionary/preparedness actions... ice jam flooding is difficult to predict...and conditions can change rapidly as a jam forms and breaks. flooding associated with ice jams is often worst immediately upstream of the jam location. if you live along or near rivers prone to ice jams...be prepared to act quickly if flooding is observed...or if requested by emergency personnel. && lat...lon 4159 8365 4157 8359 4145 8374 4137 8388 4144 8388 4149 8379 hr. Toledo Express Airport: Mar 17, 2014 6:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 12 F Humidity : 77% Wind Speed : NE 9 mph Barometer : 30.06 in Dewpoint: 6 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 0 F Toledo Executive Airport: (formerly Metcalf Airport) Mar 17, 2014 6:53 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 13 F Humidity : 70% Wind Speed : NE 12 mph Barometer : 30.08 in Dewpoint: 5 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : -1 F Toledo Suburban Airport: (near Lambertville) Mar 17, 2014 7:15 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 14 F Humidity : 79% Wind Speed : ENE 7 mph Barometer : 30.07 in Dewpoint: 9 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 4 F hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Mar 17, 2014 6:34 am Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Wind chill values as low as -3. East wind 11 to 14 mph. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. East wind 6 to 10 mph. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Tuesday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Southeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday: Rain likely, mainly before 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. hr. Toledo Area Forecast Summaries (using forecast.io data) Now: Clear 11 F - ENE at 9 mph Next 24 Hours: Partly cloudy tonight. Next 7 Days: Light rain later this week; temperatures rising to 59° on Friday. Today, Mon, Mar 17 : 30 and 11 Tue, Mar 18, : 44 and 21 Wed, Mar 19 : 45 and 34 Thu, Mar 20 : 46 and 29 Fri, Mar 21 : 59 and 34 Sat, Mar 22 : 48 and 35 Sun, Mar 23 : 34 and 23 Mon, Mar 24 : 36 and 19 hr. fxus61 kcle 171005 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 605 am edt mon mar 17 2014 synopsis... high pressure just north of lake erie will slowly drift northeast through tuesday then low pressure will move northeast through the upper lakes wednesday pulling a trailing cold front east across the area late wednesday. high pressure will move up the ohio valley thursday then a low will move across ohio friday followed by arctic high pressure pushing southeast from the northern plains toward ohio sunday. && near term /until 6 pm monday evening/... the higher clouds associated with a system se of the area continues to pull out of the se counties. however...there has been some nw advance to stratocu behind the system...that is trying to get into the far southern edge of the cwa. it appears from the latest sat pix that the northward progression of this stratocu may have ended. will adjust sky grids to allow for more clouds for the next few hours in the far south. more moisture and high clouds from a system over the plains will be spreading in from the west for the latter part of the afternoon. even with more sunshine today...the ne winds will keep temps from recovering much so once again highs today will be well below normal with most places in the north struggling to get much above 30 while the south struggles to get much above 35. && short term /6 pm monday evening through thursday night/... as winds turn more to the south tonight into tue...warm advection will become more pronounced. lows tonight should hold in a 18 to 24 range then highs tue should finally be able to rise back to more normal levels. decent higher level moisture should keep skies partly to mostly cloudy thru tue but lack of lower level moisture should keep precip away from the area. the low lifting ne across the upper lakes wed will lead to an increasing low level jet over the area tue night and wed until a cold front passes on wed to shift the south winds to the west causing a shift from warm advection to cold advection. windy conditions are likely tue night thru wed night. low levels moisten enough for light precip to start to develop west to east tue night into wed. the strength of the warm advection and increasing temps should lead to just rain tue night into wed so will keep lows tue night a 33 or higher so as not to allow for any other precip type. wrap moisture and an upper trough over the area wed night into thu will probably result in some snow showers...especially near lake erie. a weak ridge tries to briefly nose ne into the area thu eve but the fast moving pattern will bring moisture from another system back into the area by the end of thu night with possible light snow by the end of the night. && long term /friday through sunday/... the models agree in moving a low across northern ohio and northwest pa friday night into saturday. the threat of precipitation will start off as rain showers and then go to snow showers as the cold air seeps in on saturday. the precipitation amounts from the rain should be half an inch or less. not expecting much lake effect snow saturday night into sunday in the snow belt as a weak ridge builds in saturday night and the airmass is fairly dry even though the lake and 850 mb temperature difference will be near 18c sunday afternoon. elsewhere it will be dry. after above normal temperatures on friday...back to below normal for sunday. generally used hpc guidance for the temperature forecast. && aviation /06z monday through friday/... vfr for the taf period. the mid and high clouds that are associated with the weather system that was moving through the ohio valley during the overnight will move east by daybreak. some wind will continue...so no fog expected. some scattered cirrus during the daylight hours and then a little increase in cirrus monday night as a weak trof aloft moves through. outlook...non vfr possible tuesday night through wednesday night. && marine... an east wind today will become southeast tonight with a ridge to the north and an inverted trof over eastern ohio and western pennsylvania. the next and only threat for gale force winds through next weekend will be wednesday into wednesday night mainly in the cold advection after the frontal passage. at this time going with up to 30 knots. after that a ridge builds in for thursday night. will mention the possible gales in the hazardous weather outlook. a low will move close to lake erie early in the weekend...but at this time the winds are not expected to be gale force. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...adams near term...adams short term...adams long term...kieltyka aviation...kieltyka marine...kieltyka hr. fzus51 kcle 170736 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 336 am edt mon mar 17 2014 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>149-171415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva- on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 336 am edt mon mar 17 2014 today...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. mostly sunny. tonight...northeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to 15 knots. partly cloudy. tuesday...east winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. mostly sunny. tuesday night...southeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. mostly cloudy. a chance of rain. waves omitted due to the nearshore waters being mostly ice covered. see lake erie open lakes forecast for wednesday through friday. the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 33 degrees. $$ kieltyka #toledo - #weather