Toledo Weather - Mon, Apr 14, 2014 hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 459 am edt mon apr 14 2014 ohz003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-150900- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-wyandot-crawford-richland- ashland-wayne-stark-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- 459 am edt mon apr 14 2014 ...wind advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon... this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. wind advisory. hazardous weather is not expected. .days two through seven...tuesday through sunday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. urgent - weather message national weather service cleveland oh 358 am edt mon apr 14 2014 ...strong winds expected through early afternoon... .low pressure located near chicago early this morning will track northeast into quebec today...pulling a cold front east across the area. southerly winds will increase ahead of the front with winds gusting to 40-50 mph this morning. some of the stronger showers may also contribute to bringing strong winds gusts down to the surface. ohz003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-141600- /o.new.kcle.wi.y.0003.140414t0758z-140414t1800z/ lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-wyandot-crawford- richland-ashland-wayne-stark-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...mentor...chardon... findlay...tiffin...norwalk...medina...akron...ravenna... upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield...ashland... wooster...canton...marion...mount gilead...millersburg... mount vernon 358 am edt mon apr 14 2014 ...wind advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon... the national weather service in cleveland has issued a wind advisory...which is in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon. * winds...southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * timing...winds are expected to peak between 9 am and 1 pm...then decrease as showers fill in. * impacts...strong wind gusts may cause loose objects to blow around. high profile vehicles...especially those traveling on east to west oriented roads may encounter difficult driving conditions. precautionary/preparedness actions... a wind advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. stay tuned to noaa weather radio for further details or updates. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Apr 14, 2014 6:48 am Today: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Temperature falling to around 51 by 5pm. Windy, with a southwest wind 21 to 26 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Rain showers before 2am, then rain, possibly mixed with snow showers. Low around 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Light southeast wind increasing to 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 58. hr. Now: Drizzle 69 F - S at 19 mph Next 24 Hours: Breezy later this morning, with mixed rain and snow (1–2 in) until this afternoon, starting again tonight. Next 7 Days: Mixed precipitation today through Saturday, with temperatures falling to 40°F tomorrow. hr. fxus61 kcle 141140 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 740 am edt mon apr 14 2014 synopsis... low pressure will track from the central great lakes northeast into quebec today...pulling a strong cold front east across the area. high pressure will build over the central great lakes on tuesday...lingering over the eastern great lakes on wednesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... going forecast remains on track with showers approaching nw ohio. thunderstorms are confined to the deep south at this time but will continue to carry a chance in the forecast. winds are increasing as expected with peak gusts at 7 am of 48 mph at dfi and 45 mph at mnn. the strongest winds are expected between 8am and noon. previous discussion...a surface analysis shows a 995mb surface low near chicago with a warm front extending northeast across lake huron and a cold front extending southwest to oklahoma. northern ohio is starting the day off in the warm sector with temperatures near 70 degrees and increasing southerly winds this morning. the low will quickly track northeast ahead of shortwave energy zipping northeast through the flow aloft. winds will be a concern this morning as a very strong 65 knot low level jet moves across northwest and north central ohio. the strongest winds will be associated with the low level jet this morning and not the actual frontal passage as the strongest core of winds aloft are located some 200-250 miles out ahead of the cold front. winds speeds start to decrease as the front approaches which does not have a very fast forward motion or downward momentum push. with that said...models are indicating a 2-4 hour window where we could see winds gust to 40-50 miles across most of nrn ohio and a wind advisory has been issued for all but our eastern 2 tiers of counties. mfd already reported a gust to 51 mph at 251 am. the nam and other more hi res models seem to be handling the winds better than the gfs which is struggling with boundary layer temps and mixing depths. the advisory will run until 18z but winds may start to come down a little earlier as the rain moves in although the potential will remain for any stronger showers to bring strong winds down to the surface. if the rain fills in faster than expected this morning it could help to stabilize the boundary layer and cut back on mixing. however...it appears the rain will be intermittent enough initially to not have a stabilizing effect. the coverage of thunderstorms will be limited by warm air in the mid-levels and minimal instability with dewpoints struggling to reach the upper 50s. temperatures will peak this morning in nw ohio...with highs occurring this afternoon in ne ohio/nw pa. && short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... a break in the shower activity could occur across nw ohio this afternoon with precipitation filling back in this evening. a jet streak will move north across indiana/nw ohio with upper level divergence enhancing lift along the 700mb front. thermal profiles will continue to cool through the night and we will see a gradual transition to snow from west to east...starting after midnight towards toledo and occurring near sunrise in cleveland. the nam seems to hold onto a warm layer of air between 850-700mb a little too long while the gfs may cool too quickly. went with a blended solution that allows for a couple inches of wet snow...mainly overnight in nw ohio...tapering to about an inch of snow in eastern areas on tuesday morning. ground temperatures are starting to warm up so that may have a limiting effect on accumulations. with that said...we could have a period of good snowfall rates which will reduce the effects of the warm ground...especially during the overnight hours. if the transition to snow occurs faster then accumulations may be higher. after warm conditions this weekend...highs on tuesday will struggle to reach the mid and upper 30s. high pressure expands eastward tuesday night with skies clearing and temperatures dipping into the low 20s and possibly teens in nw pa. the cool snap will be short lived with warm advection ramping up on wednesday night ahead of the next low pressure system approaching the western lakes region. highs will be close to 60 again by thursday. && long term /friday through sunday/... long term begins friday with models showing an upper trof digging across the mississippi valley and upper midwest. the associated trof will be in missouri or illinois with a stationary front northeast into the central great lakes. with differences showing up...models bring moisture associated with the system into the western half of the area by 00z saturday while the surface low moves to near chicago. will bring a chance of rain into much of the area during the afternoon with highest chances west. friday night the gfs bring a closed upper low across the lower great lakes while the ecmwf has an open wave. gfs surface low is also a lot stronger. will go close to hpc/efmwf solution which is less intense. still...expect a good chance of rain moving across the area with the upper trof and surface system friday night...and saturday...tapering off saturday night into sunday. temps seasonal to just above friday...and a couple degrees below saturday and sunday. && aviation /12z monday through friday/... surface low over lower michigan will move northeast across the central great lakes early today. a cold front trailing the low will move east across nrn ohio beginning after about 15z. expect front into the ktol area 17z-18z...22-23z kcle and just after 00z keri. expecting vfr conditions well ahead of the boundary lowering to mvfr near the front and mvfr to ifr after passage. could have a few tstms in the area as well...mainly near and just ahead of the front. other concern would be low level wind shear into the morning hours as low level jet strengthens across the area. windy conditions expected monday with gusts into the mid 30s...and higher if mixing is deeper. ifr will continue overnight outlook...non vfr mainly in the east on tuesday. && marine... cold front will move across the lake from west to east today. ahead of the front expect south to southwest winds 15 to 25 knots or so with higher gusts. will likely be a decrease in winds invof the cold front followed by increasing northwest flow...mainly tonight into tuesday...back again to 15 to 25 knots. will continue with the small craft advisory as it is. for today offshore...lower levels are likely somewhat stable with the warm air/cold water setup but closer to shore expect winds to reach criteria ahead of the cold front. tonight and tuesday winds should be more widespread in cold advection. tuesday night into wednesday high pressure builds across the lake with light winds expected. light east to southeast flow is expected thursday night into friday as low pressure develops in the central plains. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...wind advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for ohz003-006>013- 017>022-027>032-036>038-047. pa...none. marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt tuesday for lez142>149. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec short term...kec long term...tk aviation...tk marine...tk hr. fzus51 kcle 140702 nshcle nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 302 am edt mon apr 14 2014 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>147-141430- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 302 am edt mon apr 14 2014 ..small craft advisory in effect through tuesday evening... today...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. a chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning...then showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet. tonight...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots. thunderstorms in the evening. rain showers likely. waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. tuesday...northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. rain showers likely in the morning. a chance of snow showers. waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet. tuesday night...northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms. waves are for ice free areas. see lake erie open lakes forecast for wednesday through friday. the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees...off cleveland 40 degrees and off erie 39 degrees. $$ lez148-149-141430- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 302 am edt mon apr 14 2014 ..small craft advisory in effect through tuesday evening... today...south winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. a slight chance of showers this morning...then showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet. tonight...west winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. showers. thunderstorms in the evening. waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. tuesday...northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. rain showers with snow showers likely in the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. tuesday night...northwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots. mostly cloudy. a chance of snow showers in the evening. waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms. waves are for ice free areas. see lake erie open lakes forecast for wednesday through friday. the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees...off cleveland 40 degrees and off erie 39 degrees. hr. special weather statement national weather service cleveland oh 843 am edt mon apr 14 2014 ohz003-006>011-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-141500- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-hancock-seneca- huron-medina-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-marion- morrow-holmes-knox- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont...sandusky...lorain...cleveland...findlay...tiffin... norwalk...medina...upper sandusky...carey...bucyrus...mansfield... ashland...wooster...marion...mount gilead...millersburg... mount vernon 843 am edt mon apr 14 2014 ...strong gusty wind expected with the showers... winds will remain elevated through the morning with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph common. the greatest concern will be near the heavier showers that move across the region. wind gusts with these showers may exceed 55 mph. #toledo - #weather