Toledo Weather - Tue, May 13, 2014

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md 0595 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for parts of srn lower mi/wrn oh/much of indiana and adjacent nrn ky


mesoscale discussion 0595
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1137 am cdt tue may 13 2014

areas affected...parts of srn lower mi/wrn oh/much of indiana and
adjacent nrn ky

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 

valid 131637z - 131830z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through
the afternoon as the pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes. 
though a few marginally severe hail or wind events will be possible
with stronger cells...ww is not anticipated.

discussion...latest radar loop shows convection gradually increasing
in a band from srn lower mi sswwd into swrn indiana...along the
slowly advancing surface cold front. objective analyses indicate
moderate destabilization ongoing ahead of the front/storms...as a
relatively cloud-free warm sector permits continued diurnal heating
of the moist boundary layer /upper 60s dewpoints/.

though the thermodynamic environment will support additional
increases in storm coverage/intensity...deep-layer wind field should
remain somewhat of a limiting factor with respect to widespread
severe potential. strongest flow aloft will be confined to the cool
side of the front...while mid-level wind vectors remain aligned
roughly parallel with the front/convective band. as such...somewhat
weakly organized storms are expected with little ewd
propagation/acceleration off the front. thus...with only isolated
severe risk expected...ww will likely remain unnecessary across the
region.

..goss/mead.. 05/13/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...lmk...iwx...grr...ind...pah...

lat...lon 43608369 43378234 40898334 38468511 37608646 37608778
39628724 41508591 43298490 43608369 

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