Toledo Weather - Tue, May 13, 2014

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md 0595 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for parts of srn lower mi/wrn oh/much of indiana and adjacent nrn ky


mesoscale discussion 0595
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1137 am cdt tue may 13 2014

areas affected...parts of srn lower mi/wrn oh/much of indiana and
adjacent nrn ky

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 

valid 131637z - 131830z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through
the afternoon as the pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes. 
though a few marginally severe hail or wind events will be possible
with stronger cells...ww is not anticipated.

discussion...latest radar loop shows convection gradually increasing
in a band from srn lower mi sswwd into swrn indiana...along the
slowly advancing surface cold front. objective analyses indicate
moderate destabilization ongoing ahead of the front/storms...as a
relatively cloud-free warm sector permits continued diurnal heating
of the moist boundary layer /upper 60s dewpoints/.

though the thermodynamic environment will support additional
increases in storm coverage/intensity...deep-layer wind field should
remain somewhat of a limiting factor with respect to widespread
severe potential. strongest flow aloft will be confined to the cool
side of the front...while mid-level wind vectors remain aligned
roughly parallel with the front/convective band. as such...somewhat
weakly organized storms are expected with little ewd
propagation/acceleration off the front. thus...with only isolated
severe risk expected...ww will likely remain unnecessary across the
region.

..goss/mead.. 05/13/2014

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...lmk...iwx...grr...ind...pah...

lat...lon 43608369 43378234 40898334 38468511 37608646 37608778
39628724 41508591 43298490 43608369 

hr.

short term forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
303 pm edt tue may 13 2014

ohz003-006>008-132015-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-
including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton...
fremont
303 pm edt tue may 13 2014

.now...
showers and thunderstorms will be moving into the area through
the afternoon. some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe
with locally heavy rainfall.


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