Toledo Weather - Tue, May 13, 2014 !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd0595.gif! md 0595 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for parts of srn lower mi/wrn oh/much of indiana and adjacent nrn ky mesoscale discussion 0595 nws storm prediction center norman ok 1137 am cdt tue may 13 2014 areas affected...parts of srn lower mi/wrn oh/much of indiana and adjacent nrn ky concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely valid 131637z - 131830z probability of watch issuance...20 percent summary...thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon as the pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes. though a few marginally severe hail or wind events will be possible with stronger cells...ww is not anticipated. discussion...latest radar loop shows convection gradually increasing in a band from srn lower mi sswwd into swrn indiana...along the slowly advancing surface cold front. objective analyses indicate moderate destabilization ongoing ahead of the front/storms...as a relatively cloud-free warm sector permits continued diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer /upper 60s dewpoints/. though the thermodynamic environment will support additional increases in storm coverage/intensity...deep-layer wind field should remain somewhat of a limiting factor with respect to widespread severe potential. strongest flow aloft will be confined to the cool side of the front...while mid-level wind vectors remain aligned roughly parallel with the front/convective band. as such...somewhat weakly organized storms are expected with little ewd propagation/acceleration off the front. thus...with only isolated severe risk expected...ww will likely remain unnecessary across the region. ..goss/mead.. 05/13/2014 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...lmk...iwx...grr...ind...pah... lat...lon 43608369 43378234 40898334 38468511 37608646 37608778 39628724 41508591 43298490 43608369 hr. short term forecast national weather service cleveland oh 303 pm edt tue may 13 2014 ohz003-006>008-132015- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky- including the cities of...toledo...bowling green...port clinton... fremont 303 pm edt tue may 13 2014 .now... showers and thunderstorms will be moving into the area through the afternoon. some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. hr. Severe Thunderstorm Warning Statement as of 3:53 PM EDT on May 13, 2014 ...A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for Monroe County until 430 PM EDT... At 351 PM EDT...severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Wyandotte to Monroe...and moving northeast at 50 mph. Hazard...60 mph wind gusts. Source...radar indicated. Impact...expect damage to roofs...siding and trees. hr. !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd0596.gif! md 0596 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for parts of ern indiana and adjacent nwrn oh mesoscale discussion 0596 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0300 pm cdt tue may 13 2014 areas affected...parts of ern indiana and adjacent nwrn oh concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely valid 132000z - 132200z probability of watch issuance...20 percent summary...strong/isolated severe storms continue ahead of the cold front. isolated gusts near severe levels will remain possible with strongest cells. discussion...visible satellite imagery shows an outflow boundary moving ewd across ern indiana attm...with a second arcing outflow crossing nwrn oh. these two boundaries are associated with the most active clusters of storms right now -- one crossing sern lower mi and the other advancing across ern indiana toward wrn oh. the most vigorous activity s of the lower mi convective cluster /which has started shifting into ontario/ is ongoing near the intersection of these two boundaries /invof adams and jay counties in indiana and adjacent van wert...paulding...and mercer counties in oh/ -- where locally gusty winds near severe levels are possible over the next hour. that said...storms overall however have remained largely disorganized...redeveloping along outflows as cool air repeatedly undercuts ongoing storms leading to successive new updraft development farther e. expect similar trends to continue over the next few hours...before storms begin to gradually decrease due to diurnal influences. ..goss/mead.. 05/13/2014 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...ind... lat...lon 41668256 40618291 39708482 40038524 41148499 41718414 41668256 #toledo - #weather