Toledo weather - jul 12, 2014 Jul 12, 2014 3:52 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 85 F Humidity : 53% Wind Speed : SSW 9 mph Barometer : 30.05 in Dewpoint: 66 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 87 F External Link : 3-day history hr. link fxus61 kcle 121938 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 338 pm edt sat jul 12 2014 synopsis... a warm front over the midwest will move across the area tonight. a cold front will move across the region on sunday and a much stronger cold front will push into the great lakes on monday. high pressure will begin to build in for mid week. && near term /until 6 am sunday morning/... high pressure has shifted east of the area and southerly flow has allowed us to warm into the 80s and has begun to bring dewpoints up. tonight will begin a stretch of few days of unsettled weather as a large cool trough encompasses the great lakes by monday. as the first shortwave emerges from the plains and midwest...low pressure will develop and move to the great lakes. this will take a warm front across the area tonight. this front should be active enough to bring a threat of some showers/thunderstorms across nrn oh/nw pa overnight and toward sunday morning. best chances will be across the north. by 6am sunday morning the cold front is expected to be laying across se mi/nrn in. temperatures will be mild tonight...a few on either side of 70. && short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/... an unseasonably vigorous/large amplitude trough will develop across the great lakes to start the new week. questions on how the day will progress with morning convection likely...especially from se mi/tol and across the lake. degree of cloud cover will have an impact on future convection as well as where any outflow boundaries reside. area is within spc slight risk for severe thunderstorms. rest of severe ingredients look good assuming we are amply unstable. deep moisture advects into the area and pw approaches 2 inches. these thunderstorms will have locally heavy rainfall and may have some training. the front sinks south of the area hopefully by midnight and weak ridging will develop over the lower lakes for the remainder of the night. another cld front...this one bringing in temperatures that will be well below normal...crosses on monday. again showers/thunderstorms will be possible. will still have enough moisture. a west breeze behind the front will usher in h8 temps that will fall below 10c monday night. depending on moisture may continue the shower threat on tuesday...although thunder chances appear lower but not zero at this point. will be lucky to hit 70 degrees for the high tuesday. ridging and drying work into the ohio valley tuesday night. && long term /wednesday through friday/... the upper level trough will still be in place over the great lakes on wednesday. the colder air aloft will be enough to at least produce some scattered showers across much of the county warning area. the better chances will be downwind of lake erie. the upper trough will gradually move eastward into friday as high pressure increases at the surface. however we cant completely rule out a shower or two thursday or friday. if they do occur it will be across ne ohio into nw pa. temperatures will be well below average on wednesday with several locations struggling to reach the upper 60s. a bit more sunshine thursday into friday should nudge highs back into the middle 70s. && aviation /18z saturday through thursday/... showers continue to decrease in coverage across indiana early this afternoon. we will have to watch the outflow boundary as it moves toward nw ohio for additional convective development. however the atmosphere will have a difficult time become unstable enough this afternoon with considerable convective debris cloudiness. elsewhere afternoon cumulus around 5000 feet and increasing high level cloud cover are expected. winds will be southwest into tonight with a few gusts around 20 knots across the western half of the region possible. weak lake breeze from east of kcle to keri will keep winds onshore for a few more hours but it should become southwest by early evening. thunderstorms are expected to develop from lower michigan to northern illinois during the evening and move toward nw oh and lake erie late this evening into the overnight hours. current thinking has the thunderstorms into nw ohio and northern lake erie around 05z. the thunderstorms will then slowly sag southeast through sunday morning. gusty winds could be an issue with the stronger thunderstorms. mvfr/ifr conditions will be with the thunderstorms. outlook...non vfr possible sunday afternoon through tuesday in thunderstorms. && marine... warm front will lift across the lake tonight with the entire lake seeing southwesterly winds increase. these winds will be disrupted by thunderstorms that move across the lake ahead of a cold front that will attempt to cross the lake by sunday afternoon. so after the gusty winds from the thunderstorms winds will become westerly in the wake of the front. the longer fetch will build waves to the 2 to 4 foot range. the winds relax a bit in the wake of the first front but will increase from the southwest on monday ahead of a strong cold front. this front will cross the lake monday evening. the longer fetch from the westerly winds will likely build waves enough by tuesday morning to require a small craft advisory. winds and waves will only slowly decrease into wednesday as cold advection continues over the warmer waters. the upper level trough over the region will keep cool air over the lake. any of the showers or even tower cumulus that develop over the lake tuesday into wednesday could generate waterspouts. did not add this to the grids yet but anticipate it will be added at some point on monday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...oudeman near term...oudeman short term...oudeman long term...mullen aviation...mullen marine...mullen hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jul 12, 2014 3:25 pm Late Afternoon: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4am. Low around 72. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. West wind 5 to 9 mph. Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Light west wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. #Toledo #weather