Toledo Weather - Wed, Jul 16, 2014 Jul 16, 2014 12:52 pm Weather : Overcast Temperature : 64 F Humidity : 58% Wind Speed : NW 9 mph - Gust 17 mph Barometer : 29.99 in Dewpoint: 49 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Jul 16, 2014 9:26 am This Afternoon: Scattered showers, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 6 mph. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. hr. fxus61 kcle 161417 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1017 am edt wed jul 16 2014 synopsis... an upper level trough will swing across the great lakes today kicking off a few showers. high pressure will build over the area thursday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... scattered lake enhanced showers continue across the ne ohio counties and raised pops especially for geauga and ashtabula counties for the next several hours. an extensive cloud deck can be seen on visible satellite extending from lake huron to nrn indiana and will continue to spread se with time. between the approaching cloud deck and increased clouds due to diurnal heating...expect skies to be mostly cloudy for much of the day. temperatures are tricky today and will depend a lot on the cloud cover. weak cold advection will continue with the 12z dtx sounding showing a pocket of air at 870mb of 5c. tweaked temperatures down a few degrees most areas into the upper 60s...especially nw ohio where cloud cover is expected to be fairly thick and ne ohio where the showers have already been ongoing this morning. the july sun is strong this time of year though so any areas that do not cloud up could reach or exceed 70. original discussion... upper level trough now over southern lake michigan will swing across the area today producing scattered showers. trough will swing east of the area late this afternoon. today will feel more like fall than the middle of summer with unseasonably cool temps. most places the temps will barely make it into the lower 70s. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... this evening after the upper level trough swings east of the area expect the development of some lake effect showers. the lake to 850 mb temperature difference will be around 16 degrees which may be unstable enough to produce showers tonight. the ridge builds over the area thursday...but could well see a few showers into thursday morning. high pressure will be centered over the forecast area thursday afternoon. the high shifts east of the area on friday allowing a southerly flow to develop leading to a gradual warming trend. models still differ on saturday. ecmwf continues to move wave into the area saturday...while gfs slower and holds off the precip until sunday night into sunday. for now will just keep chance pops going. && long term /sunday through tuesday/... an upper level low pressure system will persist over the forecast area through the forecast period keeping a slight chance for unsettled weather going into the middle of the week. surface low pressure will be present through the period as well and will be associated with persistent moisture across the area. a series of upper level positive vorticity maximums are also progged to move through the region and these too could aid in some brief periods of convection that could develop especially sunday into tuesday. may need to make some adjustments down the road as trends begin to take shape. otherwise...will not be making major changes with this package. as upper level and surface based low pressure systems settle into the area...warm air advection is expected to take place and bring a return back to some warm and humid air. as moisture increases over the region...muggier conditions will prevail along with warmer overnight lows. trended temperatures for maximum and minimum upward a few degrees to account for this trend. && aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/... showers continue to develop along area of convergence along the lake shore from cleveland east. convergent area will shift from the wet to east orientation to a more northwest direction later today. i anticipate the showers will end for a period today and then redevelop up near erie for a few hours this afternoon. otherwise...rest of the area should remain dry. vfr should be the rule all areas. expecting some fog to develop at akron canton around 09z down to 2 miles and also at youngstown down to 3 miles. otherwise...vfr rest of the sites. outlook...non vfr possible ne oh/nw pa saturday and sunday in showers/thunderstorms. && marine... will keep the small craft advisory going through the mid morning hours as winds were still around 20 knots. expecting them to diminish this morning and drop below small craft criteria for waves by mid morning. due to the higher wave action along the nearshore from cleveland east...will also mention the moderate risk of rip currents. west of cleveland...waves will likely be in the 2 to 4 foot range but decided to keep small craft advisory up there to account for the pockets of higher waves around 4 feet. expecting both rip current risk and small craft risk to diminish by mid day for the most part and be finished by 2 pm this afternoon. the rest of the forecast period looks like it will be fairly quiet on the lake as high pressure begins to build east across the region. waves will subside to 2 feet or less by tonight and remain that way through the rest of the period. we still have a risk for waterspouts on the lake through thursday morning. unstable atmosphere with the cold air aloft over the warm lake will make for ideal conditions for waterspouts to form. most likely locations will be where areas of convergence develop to produce showers. stay well clear of showers in the event waterspouts form. numerous sitings may be possible today. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...djb near term...djb/kec short term...djb long term...lombardy aviation...lombardy marine...lombardy hr. fxus63 kiwx 161643 afdiwx area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana 1243 pm edt wed jul 16 2014 synopsis... issued at 329 am edt wed jul 16 2014 low pressure centered over quebec will result in another unseasonably cool day across our area today. highs will only be in the upper 60s and lower 70s...with a few light showers possible. high pressure will build into the area tonight resulting in light winds and diminishing cloud cover. temperatures will remain chilly for mid-summer... with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. && short term...(this afternoon through thursday) issued at 612 am edt wed jul 16 2014 deep vertically stacked low centered over swrn quebec contg to cause fall-like wx conditions this morning with rather moist cyclonic low level flow across the grtlks. water vapor also indicating several wk vort maxes dropping s-se through the backside of mid level trof. these conditions should persist through much of today resulting in considerable cloudiness and a few light showers... mainly this aftn. temps should be similar to yday with highs in the u60s/l70s... which is near record low-maxes for the date. by this eve subsidence associated with ridging building into the area from the west should allow for some clearing... spreading eastward across the cwa overnight. although temps aloft should be a little warmer tonight... radiational cooling associated with diminishing winds/clouds should allow for better radiational cooling conditions than current night prbly resulting in a little cooler mins... in the u40s/l50s... which will be close to record lows for the date. && long term...(thursday night through tuesday) issued at 612 am edt wed jul 16 2014 dry and pleasant weather to start this long term period. low level anticyclone will be directly overhead on thursday with gradual airmass modification under july sun pushing highs into the mid 70s. some diurnal cu expected but not to the extent of previous periods given quickly exiting trough. just partly cloudy skies currently forecasted. more decent radiational cooling potential thursday night with very light gradient and mostly clear skies. warmer start thursday evening and slightly higher dewpoints may prevent us from touching the 40s again but mid 50s look easily attainable and lower 50s not out of the question in a few spots. temps slowly increase into next week as weak southerly flow gradually increases behind exiting low level ridge. no good waa/deep southwest flow in the foreseeable future though. the best we will get is temps around normal for mid-late july. a few outside chances for rain but nothing substantial. extrapolation of 00z nam12 suggests rain chances on saturday with approaching shortwave but all of the other 00z counterparts keep this wave and the associated moisture advection far enough south/southeast for a dry forecast. gfs40 convective schemes also get very active beginning sunday afternoon with surface dewpoints in the low 70s. not sure dewpoints will get quite that high in the weak s/se low level flow. also no synoptic forcing to speak of. a few afternoon showers/thunderstorms may certainly be possible...especially toward the middle of next week...but confidence in any one period is just too low at this juncture for blanket mention. && aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z thursday afternoon) issued at 1243 pm edt wed jul 16 2014 mainly vfr strato cu deck expected to slowly thin/lift this afternoon under thermal trough/cyclonic flow. this in combination with a weak vort max dropping through on backside of trough axis may be enough to generate iso -shra this afternoon at fwa...although coverage/confidence/impact remains too low for a shra mention in tafs. height rises/subsidence in wake of trough will promote clearing skies/light winds tonight-thursday as sfc high pressure builds in. && iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...none. mi...none. oh...none. lm...none. && $$ synopsis...jt short term...jt long term...agd aviation...steinwedel visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx (all lower case) follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at: www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.northernin.gov www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana hr. fxus63 kdtx 161057 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 657 am edt wed jul 16 2014 aviation... //discussion... cool northwest flow will continue over lower michigan on the heels of low pressure moving eastward through southern quebec. an mvfr ceiling has settled over most of the taf sites during the overnight hours. current observations show this should continue south to the metro airports with a few-sct deck in place at 11z. daytime heating this morning will initially contribute to greater coverage of mvfr stratocu generated by mixing of low level moisture within thermal trough...then help lift ceiling more firmly into vfr by afternoon. a gradual clearing trend will be promoted by high pressure advancing into lower michigan during the evening hours. //dtw threshold threats... * high confidence in ceilings at or below 5000 ft today. && prev discussion...issued 349 am edt wed jul 16 2014 short term...today and tonight the central great lakes will be underneath a cold upper level trough this morning as seen on water vapor imagery. the main core of the trough can also be seen exiting the great lakes to the north...currently over the ontario/quebec border and headed through quebec. 850 mb temperatures will still in the single digits...which happens to be about where the top of todays mixing will take place. this puts daytime highs right around 70 degrees which is about 15 degrees below normal and around the record low maximum for the day. the cold air in place also means that any clearing we have this morning will quickly lead to diurnal cumulus clouds. the aforementioned trough and shortwaves rounding the trough will assist in shower development this afternoon with a general 30 percent chance for showers across the area. the main trough exits to the east tonight...allowing ridging to build out to the west...clearing out the clouds as subsidence...the loss of daytime heating and drier air move in. with clearing skies under the cold airmass and light winds...overnight lows will tumble to around 50 degrees outside of the detroit metro area. long term...wednesday through next monday the deep mid level closed circulation has lifted well off to the nw through quebec by thursday morning...although the remnant trough will still linger over the state into the weekend. this is partly due to a developing split flow regime...albeit a weak one...over the conus. with all the noam jet energy exiting off the east coast...we are left with a weak zonal northern stream across canada and a weak southern stream shortwave diving se from the central rockies into the southern plains down east side of the ridge. this locks the mid level cold pool...whats left of it...over the great lakes into the weekend. strengthening ridge over the sw conus and western atlantic try to merge together across the southern states which block any attempts of the jet to work back southward. with the great lakes caught under to the trapped cool air aloft...with high pressure at the sfc and only weak zonal flow...expect only a slowly moderating trend in temperatures through the weekend. subsidence from the high will help clear skies out thursday...outside of an afternoon cu field resulting from the elevated sfc moisture content...which will aide in the slow temperature recovery. for the weekend...the sfc high will drift eastward allow southerly flow to return to the area. this will allow some moisture and warm air advection into lower mi. meanwhile...the aforementioned southern stream shortwave will be tracking ne from the tennessee valley into the ohio valley. models have kept this track close enough to se mi to have the nw edge of the deformation region brushing metro detroit on saturday. with weak troughing/cool air aloft still...moisture advection returning in the low level...and this shortwave nearby... models are all generating low pops for sunday and beyond. will just keep a low slight chance pop for the end of the period until some detail can be resolved. marine... the cold upper level trough axis will hold over the region into the weekend though it will be filling in throughout the period. with the cold air aloft...conditions will still be favorable for waterspouts until this afternoon with scattered showers through this evening. broad area of high pressure will start building into the region later today which will encompass the region thursday and into the weekend. this will bring light winds and calm seas back to the eastern great lakes. && dtx watches/warnings/advisories... mi...none. lake huron...none. lake st clair...none. mi waters of lake erie...none. && $$ aviation.....kurimski short term...kurimski long term....drk marine.......drk you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit (all lower case). hr. fzus51 kcle 161650 cca nshcle nearshore marine forecast...corrected national weather service cleveland oh 942 am edt wed jul 16 2014 for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake erie lez142>145-162015- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- 942 am edt wed jul 16 2014 this afternoon...northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. partly sunny with isolated showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 1 to 3 feet. tonight...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 2 feet or less. thursday...north winds less than 10 knots. mostly sunny. a chance of waterspouts in the morning. waves 2 feet or less. thursday night...southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. partly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less. see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday. the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees...off cleveland 71 degrees and off erie 74 degrees. $$ lez146>149-162015- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva- on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 942 am edt wed jul 16 2014 ..rip current risk in effect until 3 pm edt... this afternoon...northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. partly sunny with scattered showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. there is a moderate risk of rip currents today. tonight...west winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 10 knots or less. mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. a chance of waterspouts. waves 1 to 3 feet. thursday...north winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. mostly sunny. a chance of waterspouts in the morning. waves 2 feet or less. thursday night...west winds 10 knots or less becoming south. partly cloudy. waves 2 feet or less. see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday. the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees...off cleveland 71 degrees and off erie 74 degrees. hr. flus41 kcle 160841 cca hwocle hazardous weather outlook...corrected national weather service cleveland oh 438 am edt wed jul 16 2014 ohz011-012-089-paz001-170845- cuyahoga-lake-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie- 438 am edt wed jul 16 2014 ..rip current risk in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon... this hazardous weather outlook is for northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. moderate risk of rip currents. days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ ohz003-006>010-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-paz002-003-170845- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-geauga-ashtabula inland- hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-wyandot-crawford- richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox- southern erie-crawford pa- 438 am edt wed jul 16 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. day one...today and tonight. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ for lake erie. day one...today and tonight. please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. moderate risk of rip currents. there is a chance for waterspouts today and tonight. numerous waterspouts are possible...especially in showers. days two through seven...thursday through tuesday. waterspouts are possible thursday morning. otherwise...no other hazardous weather is expected. $$ lombardy hr. #toledo - #weather