Sample day 3 convective outlook text page

spc ac 170722

   day 3 convective outlook  
   nws storm prediction center norman ok
   0222 am cdt mon jun 17 2013

   valid 191200z - 201200z

   ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms for parts of mt wed afternoon
   to wed night...

   ...synopsis...
   a vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within the basal portion of
   the amplified wrn conus upper-level trough should eject newd from
   the nwrn great basin to the nrn rockies by early thu. this will
   induce lee cyclogenesis over ern mt with a cold front accelerating
   ewd across the nrn high plains wed night. farther s...the dryline
   will probably mix off the higher terrain in the cntrl/srn high
   plains. a mid-level ridge should continue to slowly slide ewd across
   the great plains with weak height rises mainly late in the period.

   ...mt...
   preceding days of low-level moist advection should yield
   predominately 50s surface dew points across most of the lee of the
   nrn rockies at peak heating wed. with steep lapse rates throughout
   the troposphere...air mass should become rather unstable with mlcape
   likely reaching 1500-2500 j/kg. mid-level height falls and dcva
   downstream of the approaching shortwave trough will overspread wrn
   mt by afternoon and into cntrl mt by evening...with isolated to
   scattered tstm development likely occurring over the higher terrain.
   meridional mid/upper-level wind profiles will favor n/nely storm
   motions with a few supercells primarily producing large hail.
   convection may grow upscale during the evening as the llj
   strengthens with an organized cluster producing a mix of severe
   wind/hail.

   ...great plains...
   although moderate to strong buoyancy should exist across the bulk of
   the plains...overall pattern appears nebulous for warranting slight
   risk probabilities attm. with mid-level heights slowly rising and
   moderate 700 mb winds becoming predominately swly...it appears
   probable that the wrn periphery of the plains moisture plume should
   mix e of the higher terrain /especially in the lee of the srn
   rockies/. however...the nam remains farther w than the
   ecmwf/ukmet/gfs/cmc and suggests another round of cntrl/srn high
   plains convection will fire wed afternoon. most other guidance
   suggest convection may remain quite isolated along the dryline owing
   to a strengthening eml/capping inversion. where isolated dryline
   tstms are able to form...sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for
   supercells and a risk for severe hail/wind. somewhat higher tstm
   probabilities are apparent along the leading edge of the cap where
   nocturnal elevated tstms are possible as the llj strengthens. some
   of this activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail/wind.

   ..grams.. 06/17/2013

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