Toledo Weather - Fri, Sep 5, 2014 http://jothut.com/cgi-bin/junco.pl/replies/43829 Sep 5, 2014 1:52 pm Weather : A Few Clouds Temperature : 91 F Humidity : 56% Wind Speed : SW 8 mph Barometer : 29.99 in Dewpoint: 73 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 100 F (formerly Metcalf Airport) Sep 5, 2014 1:53 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 92 F Humidity : 52% Wind Speed : SW 14 mph Barometer : 29.99 in Dewpoint: 72 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 100 F (near Lambertville) Sep 5, 2014 1:35 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 90 F Humidity : 59% Wind Speed : SW 6 mph Barometer : 30.00 in Dewpoint: 73 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 99 F hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Sep 5, 2014 12:27 pm This Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Southwest wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 7pm and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday: A chance of showers, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 75. Light north wind. Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 77. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 40%. page created: Sep 05, 2014 - 2:00 p.m. EDT hr. fxus61 kcle 051759 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 159 pm edt fri sep 5 2014 synopsis... a cold front associated with a love moving over ontario low will move across the area tonight. high pressure will build in saturday night and remain in control of our weather into early next week. && near term /through tonight/... only minor changes to the near term forecast. subsidence in control with mostly clear skies. expect to see some gradual cu development this afternoon but not enough to prevent temperatures from reaching around 90 for most locations. with dew points around 70 this will put heat indicies around 95 at times. spc has expanded the slight risk for severe weather further east covering most of our ohio counties...however this will mainly play out after dark. the cin in indiana is waning so would anticipate some development there ahead of the front over the next few hours. the upper ridge will begin to break down with height falls starting in our western counties later this afternoon. the short fuse models remain a bit too aggressive with pops so we are carrying 20 pops in the west increasing at the later part of today and tonight. prev discussion... temperatures started off the day in the upper 60s/lower 70s which will support highs rising into the upper 80s/lower 90s. h850 temperatures around 20c this afternoon with produce some of the warmest weather felt this year. the sw flow at the surface will add a downsloping component for most areas which will add a degree or two. believe the warming around h850 will cap most of the area for the better part of the day. some morning showers near erie...associated with a weak theta-e moisture convergence...is already showing signs of dissipating. to our west we could see some activity advect in as cin continues to drop in indiana...creating a more favorable environment for storm development. dtx morning sounding shows a weaker cap over this region so it supports the spc placement of a slight risk clipping just our nw counties. the main concern is the downward cape supportive for strong winds. can't rule out small hail given cape values >2000 joules and fz lvls around 14-15k ft. an approaching frontal boundary will be the main focus for storms...but that will be later tonight. && short term /saturday through monday night/... main weather maker for the short term is the cold front that will make its way across the area tonight. will bring in likely pops for tonight...tapering to chance saturday morning north and west while hanging onto likely south/southeast. for the afternoon will dry out the north and taper south to a chance pop. models have been showing this transition now for several days and other than minor timing differences...have been fairly consistent. as for cloud cover believe that clouds should break west and north in the afternoon given the significant decrease in moisture from the north during the day. elsewhere skies will clear saturday night. high pressure builds in sunday and should keep the area dry through monday night. aside from tonight...temps below normal for the balance of the short term. && long term /tuesday through thursday/... trends for the extended remain the same...but models not in agreement with the track and timing of a series of short waves that will move across the forecast area mid week. the ecmwf moves the low across the area on wednesday...while gfs is further south and about 12 hours slower. since so much doubt at this time will just keep chance pops going wednesday into thursday. both models trending toward much cooler temps by next weekend. && aviation /18z friday through wednesday/... showers and thunderstorms have been focused around an area of deepening low pressure moving due east across northern michigan. this activity will pass well north of the area this evening. however... isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop ahead of an attendant cold front that stretches from eastern wisconsin through western missouri by mid afternoon...lasting through the early evening. western terminals are more likely to see thunder than those in the east today. overnight...the cold front will move into the tol area around 08z and eventually work its way south and east by daybreak. rain and isolated thunder will accompany the front. mvfr fog and ceilings will linger through late morning/early afternoon. outlook...non vfr likely tonight and saturday with showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front...then vfr through early tuesday. non vfr again with the next cold front on wednesday. && marine... winds will remain out of the south southwest today. models in good agreement moving cold front across the lake overnight. choppy conditions behind the front as winds turn to the north-northwest at 10 to 15 knots and waves build to 2 to 4 feet. will need to continue to monitor...if winds just a little stronger small craft advisory may be needed...especially in the east. winds diminish quickly saturday night as high pressure builds over the lower lakes. high pressure will remain over the lake through the remainder of the weekend. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...tk near term...jamison/tk short term...tk long term...djb aviation...mayers marine...djb hr. !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd1681.gif! spc ac 051608 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1108 am cdt fri sep 05 2014 valid 051630z - 061200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from ern mo ene into lwr mi and the lwr grt lks... ...summary... scattered strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail across parts of the lower great lakes and midwest later this afternoon into tonight. ...synoptic setup... ridge will remain in place from the srn rckys ene to the wrn atlantic...s of broad cyclonic flow over cntrl/ern canada. within the latter flow...positive-tilt trough now over wrn ont expected to continue ene onto que tngt/early sat...while trailing/positive-tilt impulse now over wrn neb continues ene to wi/ia this eve...and to lk huron early sat. at the sfc...cold front associated with ont trough should advance steadily ese across lwr mi and the mid-ms vly today. a weak wave may form along the boundary over il/ind/srn mi tngt in response to neb/ia impulse. ...ern mo/midwest/lwr mi this aftn into tngt... set-up appears favorable for the development of lines/small clusters of mainly multicell storms from parts of the mid-ms vly ene into lwr mi and the lwr grt lks later today into tngt as sfc heating further destabilizes corridor of 1.75+ inch pw along/ahead of cold front. extrapolation of morning raob data suggests that residual eml/steep mid-lvl lapse rate plume spreading ene on nrn side of upr ridge will overlie srn lwr mi/nrn ind and wrn/nrn oh this aftn. once convective temps have been reached...frontal uplift and...in cntrl lwr mi...uplift along pre-frontal outflow boundary...should overcome cinh to foster strong storm development. development in mo/il also may be encouraged by the approach of neb/ia upr impulse. deep...largely unidirectional wsw flow will minimize convergence. but storms that do form will pose a conditional risk for dmgg wind and possibly svr hail given very warm/humid near-sfc environment...eml...and 30-35 kt 700-500 mb flow that could yield small bows/arcing line segments. although the strongest storms should occur before mid-late eve...strong activity could persist into late tngt/early sat over oh and the lwr grt lks. ...s-cntrl plns this aftn/eve... upr air pattern is such that mid-lvl lapse rates will be relatively weak along and n of that part of cold front advancing se across the srn plns today/tngt. while nrn ok will be glanced by srn fringe of neb/ia upr impulse...large-scale forcing for ascent over most of the region will remain neutral at best. coupled with modest cloud-layer shear /aob 30 kts/...the prospects for organized/sustained svr storms appear low. nevertheless...frontal uplift amidst pw aoa 1.75 inches and diurnally-steepened low-lvl lapse rates may yield a few storms with a potential for briefly svr wind/hail. ..corfidi/rogers.. 09/05/2014 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z h2. 1:53 p.m. Toledo Temps From the Wundermap. !https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5575/15149179955_1507581c22_c.jpg! h2. mesoscale md 1681 concerning severe potential...watch possible for s lower michigan...nw ohio...n indiana...far ne illinois mesoscale discussion 1681 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0119 pm cdt fri sep 05 2014 areas affected...s lower michigan...nw ohio...n indiana...far ne illinois concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 051819z - 051945z probability of watch issuance...60 percent summary...strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into the evening hours along and ahead of a cold front. strong...locally damaging winds will be the main threat but some hail is also possible. a watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours. discussion...temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees this afternoon under mostly clear skies. this has resulted in eroding early inhibition and with dewpoints in the low 70s...strong mlcape approaching 3000 j/kg was noted in 17z mesoanalysis. furthermore...18z raob from dtx confirms that little if any inhibition remains over the region...and cumulus was noted in latest vis sat imagery in the vicinity of a pre-frontal wind shift/convergence zone. also noted on the 18z dtx raob were steepening lapse rates above the very moist boundary layer /midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 c per km/ and 0-6 km shear near 30 kt. convergence along the sewd advancing cold front is weak...but given degree of instability and other favorable parameters...at least some semi-organized storm clusters/bowing line segments will be possible into the evening hours. one or more bands/waves of storms will be possible...first along any pre-frontal convergent zones and then further west along the actual cold front itself. steep lapse rates combined with pw values aoa 1.75 inches will mainly support a damaging wind threat. while instability and shear will be adequate for some stronger/briefly rotating updrafts...500 mb temps near -8 c should limit larger hail potential...but some near-severe hail could occur in strongest updrafts. area will be monitored for watch issuance within the next 1-2 hours. ..leitman/corfidi.. 09/05/2014 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...grr...ind...lot... lat...lon 43558425 43828299 43698257 43178221 42548232 41498282 41028383 40748564 40548747 40648824 41008865 41368867 41748817 42388679 43558425 hr. Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS OHC003-039-043-051-063-069-077-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-171- 173-060100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0495.140905T1905Z-140906T0100Z/ OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN DEFIANCE ERIE FULTON HANCOCK HENRY HURON LUCAS OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA VAN WERT WILLIAMS WOOD hr. Sep 5, 2014 2:52 pm Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 93 F Humidity : 52% Wind Speed : WSW 12 mph Barometer : 29.97 in Dewpoint: 73 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 102 F (formerly Metcalf Airport) Sep 5, 2014 1:53 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 92 F Humidity : 52% Wind Speed : SW 14 mph Barometer : 29.99 in Dewpoint: 72 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 100 F (near Lambertville) Sep 5, 2014 2:54 pm Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 91 F Humidity : 52% Wind Speed : SW 9 mph - Gust 16 mph Barometer : 29.97 in Dewpoint: 72 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 98 F #toledo - #weather hr. Sep 5, 2014 3:52 pm Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 93 F Humidity : 49% Wind Speed : WSW 14 mph - Gust 25 mph Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 71 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 100 F hr. !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd1684.gif! md 1684 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 495... for nern il...nrn ind...srn mi...nwrn oh...srn lk mi...wrn lk erie mesoscale discussion 1684 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0536 pm cdt fri sep 05 2014 areas affected...nern il...nrn ind...srn mi...nwrn oh...srn lk mi...wrn lk erie concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 495... valid 052236z - 060000z the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 495 continues. summary...the threat for damaging wind and isolated large hail continues across svr tstm watch 495 and surrounding areas. a locally enhanced damaging wind threat will continue across srn mi for the next 1-2 hrs. discussion...at 2230z...scattered strong to severe tstms are ongoing in and near ww 495. the most organized storm structure has been observed with the ongoing small bow echo now moving across swrn mi. convection along the srn flank had weakened earlier...but has recently intensified as it begins to overtake a prefrontal wind shift where sfc convergence and instability are somewhat stronger. as this system merges into more scattered convection developing along and ahead the wind shift...a locally enhanced severe wind risk will be progress rapidly ewd across srn mi over the next 1-2 hrs...potentially affecting the detroit area by 00z. further to the southwest...strong to locally severe tstms continue across nrn indiana and along the cold front in nrn il. sufficient instability/shear will continue to support a severe threat with this activity for the next several hours. some uptick in the damaging wind threat is possible as the frontal convection consolidates over nrn il and propagates into ongoing convection across nrn ind into the evening. ..dean.. 09/05/2014 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...iwx...grr...ind...lot...ilx... lat...lon 40458713 40388824 40808888 41128902 42138778 42808656 43188506 43648257 43328235 43048224 42598225 42238197 41818192 41488194 40948197 40788301 40638415 40528485 40458713 hr. Toledo Express Airport Sep 5, 2014 5:52 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 92 F Humidity : 49% Wind Speed : SW 12 mph - Gust 22 mph Barometer : 29.89 in Dewpoint: 70 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 98 F hr. TOL: Sep 5, 2014 6:52 pm Weather : Fair Temperature : 89 F Humidity : 53% Wind Speed : SW 12 mph - Gust 22 mph Barometer : 29.89 in Dewpoint: 70 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Heat Index : 94 F