Toledo weather sat sep 13 2014 hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 845 pm edt sat sep 13 2014 ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-150045- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga- ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull- wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow- holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie- crawford pa- 845 pm edt sat sep 13 2014 this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...tonight. low temperatures tonight will be mostly in the 40s but temperatures could dip into the upper 30s in some of the typical cool spots. this could lead to isolated areas of frost. .days two through seven...sunday through friday. a few locations will dip into the mid and upper 30s on sunday night...mainly in northeast ohio and inland northwest pennsylvania. patchy frost may be possible. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: Sep 13, 2014 9:36 pm Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Monday: A chance of showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 65. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 75. hr. link fxus61 kcle 140208 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 1008 pm edt sat sep 13 2014 synopsis... chilly high pressure from the mississippi valley will cross the area sunday morning and then move off the new england coast on monday. a developing cold front will drop across the area late monday and monday night and reinforce the cool air. an area of high pressure will move across the plains states and lower great lakes tuesday into wednesday. && near term /until 6 am sunday morning/... model soundings and mav guidance indicating the potential for a little bit of fog late tonight in interior northeast ohio as temperatures fall to near the dewpoint beneath a very shallow inversion. added a mention of patchy fog for just a couple hours prior to sunrise...mainly east of i-71. also added a low chance of a shower/waterspout over the south half of lake erie...mainly 10-15z. hi-res models showing a land breeze developing late tonight given the chilly temperatures over the land and building surface high. otherwise forecast remains in good shape. previous discussion...a trough at the surface and aloft over southern ontario will slide off to the east tonight. the surface high over the mississippi valley will move east...reaching northwest ohio by daybreak. with the cold air mass and the flow off lake erie... will keep clouds in the forecast for much of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania although there will likely be breaks in the clouds at times given the increasing subsidence and drying. a few sprinkles are possible...mainly in the snowbelt. some of the higher resolution models hint at precip over the western basin of lake erie as convergence will likely develop as the land breeze develops during the early morning hours. this may well occur but not enough confidence to include any precip at this time out over the lake. if it were to occur...a waterspout would also be possible along the convergence line. temps will drop as far as they can tonight over northwest ohio given the dropping dew points...decreasing winds and clearing skies. lows in the lower 40s and upper 30s. frost cannot be ruled out in the coldest outlying spots but will not specifically mention it given the isolated nature. lower/mid 40s elsewhere except lower/mid 50s at the lake erie shore. && short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/... the surface high will shift east on sunday and the flow will come around light from the southwest. a lake breeze is likely near lake erie given the light gradient. fair weather cumulus will develop or evolve from the remaining lake clouds but it should still end up "mostly sunny". some high clouds will begin to advance but will likely stay thin. given the cool start and light wind will not go as warm as some of the guidance. highs from around 60 nw pa to the mid 60s nw and north central ohio. a fast moving short wave will track across the northern states on monday. this will push a developing cold front across the area...probably late in the afternoon across nw ohio and then in the evening elsewhere. a second short wave is progged to dive southeast across the great lakes monday night. this will likely increase the frontogenesis and enhance the rain/showers along the front. a weak wave may develop on the front monday night. high temps on monday may not get as warm as it could ahead of the front since the high/mid clouds will likely start to thicken up fairly quickly. we should recover to the mid and upper 60s...maybe 70 or so if we get lucky. the air mass will be cool on tuesday behind the front but not as cool as the current air mass. not cool enough for significant lake effect showers but there will likely be lake effect clouds. highs in the 60s. && long term /wednesday through saturday/... little change in the extended forecast. models continue in good agreement with large area of high pressure moving across the great lakes thursday into friday. the high becomes nearly stationary off the new england coast on saturday...with strong upper level ridge in place over the area. warming trend saturday as southerly flow develops. overall however below normal conditions will continue into next weekend. && aviation /00z sunday through thursday/... high pressure will be over the area tonight through sunday. the cloud forecast is a little tough. the onshore flow aloft will become offshore sunday morning. with the flow decreasing the threat of broken lake effect clouds between 3000 and 4000 feet will be mainly at cle and eri. elsewhere some fog is possible. some of the models are trying to indicate dense fog at cak and yng...at this time did not go that low of visibility but some patchy dense fog will occur. the clouds will slowly decrease on sunday. ceilings could be near 3000 feet especially through mid morning. outlook...non vfr likely monday night with passage of cold front. && marine... the winds are decreasing on schedule but the waves are slow to subside so extended the small craft advisory on the east end of the lake until 3 am sunday as the waves were still 3 to 6 feet at around 10 pm. a land breeze is expected to develop by sunday morning as high pressure builds over the lake. this will mean a convergent boundary will be over the lake. isolated showers may develop on this boundary and with the lake and 850 mb temperature difference near 18c the air aloft will be cold enough for the potential for a few cold air waterspouts or funnels to develop. the threat is marginal as the amount of moisture in the low levels is barely adequate. a slight chance of waterspouts have been added to the marine forecast and the hazardous weather outlook. previous discussion... the high will be centered over the lake by daybreak sunday. high will continue to move east and move off the mid atlantic coast monday. this will allow another cold front to move across the lake monday night. expect choppy conditions tuesday with nw from of 10 to 15 knots and waves of 2 to 4 feet...but should remain below small craft advisory conditions. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...small craft advisory until 3 am edt sunday for lez147>149. && $$ synopsis...kosarik near term...kec/kosarik short term...kosarik long term...djb aviation...kieltyka marine...djb/kieltyka #Toledo #weather