h1. Browns at Bengals - Thu, Nov 6, 2014

Records:

* Cleveland 5-3
* Cincinnati 5-2-1

Divisional game, could be unpredictable. 

Thus far, the Bengals have underperformed a bit, but they have not lost at home this season. They went 8-0 last year at home during the regular season.

In tonight's game, if Cleveland can keep within one or two scores by halftime, then the Browns will probably make it exciting at the end.

But Cleveland is done playing the worst teams in the league. 

h2. Defensive Rankings

"Defensive rankings":http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2014&role=OPP&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&qualified=false ranked by total yards surrendered per game, the Browns and Bengals rank near the bottom while the Detroit Lions rank the best in giving up the fewest yards per game.

1. Detroit - 290.4 yards per game
2. San Francisco
3. Miami
4. Seattle
5. Kansas City
6. NY Jets ???? - rankings don't mean much
7. Denver
8. Buffalo
9. Minnesota
10. Washington

...

28. Cleveland 391.8 yards per game
29. NY Giants
30. Cincinnati 394.9 yards per game
31. Tampa Bay
32. Atlanta



br. Defensive Rankings based upon points per game surrendered, ranked fewest to most:

1. Detroit's defense gives up 15.8 points per game
2. Kansas City
3. Miami
4. Baltimore
5. Arizona
6. Buffalo
7. San Diego
8. Cleveland 21.1 points per game
9. Dallas
10. Seattle

...

17. Cincinnati 23.4 points per game


br. Defensive rankings, opponents' 3rd down efficiency, ranked lowest to highest.

1. Indianapolis - opponents convert on 3rd down against Indy only 30 percent of the time
2. Detroit 32 percent
3. Kansas City
4. Pittsburgh
5. Buffalo
6. Philadelphia
7. Cincinnati - opponents convert on 3rd down 37 percent of the time.

...

12. Cleveland - opponents convert on 3rd down 39 percent of the time.


h2. Offensive Rankings

Offensive rankings, yards per game, ranked highest to lowest:

1. Indianapolis - 451.2 yards per game
2. New Orleans
3. Pittsburgh
4. Philadelphia
5. Denver
6. Washington
7. Dallas
8. Atlanta
9. Baltimore
10. New England
11. Miami
12. Cincinnati 361.6 yards per game
13. Chicago
14. Cleveland 352.2 yards per game


br. Offensive rankings, rushing yards per game, ranked highest to lowest:

1. Dallas 153.4 rushing yards per game
2. Seattle
3. NY Jets
4. Miami
5. Houston

...

9. Cincinnati 121.4 rushing yards per game

...

15. Cleveland 111.2 rushing yards per game


br. Offensive rankings, passing yards per game, ranked highest to lowest:

1. Indianapolis 337.4 passing yards per game
2. Denver
3. New Orleans
4. Pittsburgh
5. Philadelphia
6. Washington
7. Atlanta
8. New England
9. Detroit
10. San Diego

...

14. Cleveland 241.0 passing yards per game
15. Cincinnati 240.2 passing yards per game


br. Offensive rankings, 3rd down percentage, ranked highest to lowest:

1. Dallas 53 percent of the time, the Cowboys convert on third down
2. Kansas City
3. New Orleans
4. San Diego
5. Arizona

...

23. Cincinnati 38 percent

...

31. Cleveland 32 percent




br. The two teams are similar stat-wise and record-wise. Cincy has played a slightly tougher schedule in the first half of the season, but the Bengals have not been competitive in their two losses.

If Cleveland continues not to commit a ton of turnovers, then tonight's game could be tight and decided late, which is nothing new for Cleveland.

Cleveland, however, has not won a divisional road game since 2008.

I predict Cin 24 and Cle 21.

The big game, a must-win for Cleveland is the next game, Sun, Nov 16 at Cleveland vs Houston. If the Browns lose tonight, they can get their two-game differential back by improving their home record to 5-1 against the Texans who have announced a quarterback change this week, even though Houston is 4-5, and in the playoff hunt if they beat Cleveland.

Houston has a bye this week. Earlier this week, the Texans "announced":http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11826334/houston-texans-switch-ryan-mallett-starting-quarterback?ex_cid=espnapi_public that Ryan Mallet would start at QB versus Cleveland, replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

This is Mallet's fourth NFL season, but he has seen little action.

q.
Meanwhile, Mallett relishes the idea of getting an opportunity after four NFL seasons during which he had yet to play a meaningful snap.

The Texans traded for Mallett in September, sending a draft pick to the New England Patriots.

Mallett, a third-round draft pick in 2011, spent the first three seasons of his career as a backup to Tom Brady with the Patriots. O'Brien was the Patriots' offensive coordinator that season before he left to be Penn State's head coach in 2012.

O'Brien said that, upon Mallett's arrival in Houston this year, the coach saw a player who had "grown up" since he last saw him and that it was apparent that he had learned a lot from Brady.

Mallett's first start will come in Week 11 against the Cleveland Browns, who are led by quarterback Brian Hoyer -- another former Brady backup.
q..

The Browns faced rookie QBs at winless Jacksonville and versus winless Oakland. Although not a rookie, Mallet is basically a rookie from NFL starting experience. Cleveland caught a break here. Must-win game for the Browns, regardless of what happens in tonight's game.


h2. FiveThirtyEight Stats

Nov 6, 2014 post
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-week-10-playoff-implications-a-big-week-for-miami-and-detroit/

If Cleveland defeats Cincinnati tonight, according to FiveThirtyEight's data, Cleveland's chances of making the playoffs increases from 10.1 percent 20.5 percent.

If Cleveland loses, their playoff chances decrease from 10.1 percent to 5.7 percent.

Heading into tonight's game, Cincinnati has a 45.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. If the

 #browns