mesoscale discussion 0255 0436 pm cdt thu apr 09 2015

md 0255 concerning severe potential...watch possible for portions of nrn oh



nws storm prediction center norman ok


areas affected...portions of nrn oh

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 092136z - 092330z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...potential for a few damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado
or two will exist with any stronger cells late this afternoon into
early this evening. trends are being monitored for a possible ww.

discussion...latest wsr-88d mosaic depicts a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms progressing generally enewd across nrn oh...just south
of lake erie. this convection is likely in response to forcing from
ascent from a weak perturbation in sw flow aloft...working in
concert with some focus for initiation along a warm front in the
vicinity. one cell in particular over seneca/sandusky counties has
shown supercellular characteristics...with some rotation apparent in
mrms products. the cell is currently in an environment characterized
by mlcape values of around 400-1000 j/kg...and these values may
increase further to near 1500 j/kg in any pockets of stronger
insolation. strong flow aloft is yielding effective shear values of
around 40-45 kts...which combined with adequate low-level srh
/apparent in regional vwp data and fcst soundings/...will offer the
potential for updraft organization and the resultant possibility of
a few damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two. if convective
trends increase...a ww may be necessary.

..picca/hart.. 04/09/2015

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...pbz...cle...iln...

lat...lon 41388375 41518300 41478261 41468175 41378141 41298122
41278106 40938113 40628129 40438170 40328239 40448311
40778378 41198384 41388375