Afd may 10 2015 morning link fxus61 kcle 101122 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 722 am edt sun may 10 2015 synopsis... a stationary front just northwest of the area will move little through today. a warm front will lift north across the area this evening and become stationary over lake erie overnight. low pressure will move east along the stationary front monday dragging a cold front across the area monday evening. a trough extending from the low will slide south across the area tuesday night into wednesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... minor update to hourly temperatures and dew points. otherwise...scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the day. previous discussion... strong warm air advection will move north into the forecast area through the day today. an upper level positive vorticity maximum in an elongated formation will slide east this afternoon and evening with a fairly good swath of moisture associated with it. some moisture will be around the area through the day and with instability increasing with day time heating...scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area. however...with the upper level vorticity maximum moving into the region...this should be a focusing mechanism to cause showers and thunderstorms to develop over the west and move east with the feature. at this time...will keep mention of precipitation as a chance pops for today. may need to up the pops in the west if the activity becomes a bit more robust. precipitation amounts are tough to call due to the scattered activity but generally speaking...around a tenth of an inch is possible throughout many of the basins with locally much higher amounts. if we get more sun than expected...temperatures could soar again well into the 80s for highs since we are still in the same air mass as the last couple days. && short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/... upper level ridging will begin to shift to the east tonight allowing upper level trough axis to move east toward the area by monday. surface low pressure will intensify as it moves east due to the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted across the forecast area. a warm front is progged to lift north of the area by tonight and then become nearly stationary over the central lakes. low pressure will move east along the front and drag a cold front east toward the region on monday evening. forecast area remains in the warm air mass on monday ahead of the front. pre cold frontal trough will likely develop and could become the focusing mechanism for the development of a line of showers and thunderstorms. the potential exists due to timing of this activity and max heating for strong damaging winds and large hail. severe threat in the extreme west may even include tornadoes before sunset due to the close proximity to the low pressure system and stationary front extending east from the low. will have to monitor this situation over the next 36 hours to see how it develops. otherwise...low pressure moves east of the area by tuesday forcing the cold front to push east of the region as well. this will usher in some much cooler air by wednesday and wednesday night. high pressure will begin to build in from the west and this should bring an end to the precipitation threat. warm temperatures continue tonight through monday and then cooling down monday night through wednesday night in the cold air advection. && long term /thursday through saturday/... not many changes to the long term this morning. the period will start with high pressure over the area. this will result in another cool and dry day thursday. the high will slide off to the east by friday and the next question is how fast precip will return to the area. the new guidance shows a warm front developing to the south and then lifting north into the area by the start of the weekend. could see some precip at the sw end of the area by friday evening and all areas by saturday morning. both the 00z ecmwf and gfs show a large area of precip over the region on saturday so may eventually need higher than chance pops. temps by saturday will be back to seasonable values. && aviation /12z sunday through thursday/... some showers continue to move up the i-71 corridor. they have shown some weakening and should pass to the east of kcle and kmfd the next hour or so. the new guidance continues to hint at precip breaking out around midday in nw oh and then elsewhere later in the afternoon. probably will see scattered showers with just a few embedded thunderstorms. as has been the case the past few days...timing and location will be tough to pinpoint. the fog at ktol should improve quickly this morning. light flow will become s to sw later this morning and increase to 10 to 15 knots. things should quiet down this evening. will have to watch for more patchy fog and possibly mvfr cigs late in the taf period. outlook...non vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms through monday night. && marine... lake erie is expected to be relatively quiet through monday as warm air advection rides up over the lakes cold dome that is in place. a cold front will eventually cross the lake some monday night into tuesday. this will cause the pressure gradient to increase and could prompt the issuance of a small craft. winds gradually diminish tuesday night through thursday as high pressure builds east across the lake. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...lombardy near term...lombardy short term...lombardy long term...kubina aviation...kubina marine...kubina #toledo #weather