h1. May 9-11, 2015 Toledo Weather



The nice thing about the "Storm Prediction Center":http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ and it's technology is that they have been "advising":http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ about Monday's possible severe weather since "at least Thursday.":https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7665/16882293173_c35dea5ee5_z.jpg 


br. Excerpts from Sunday afternoon "area forecast discussions,":http://toledotalk.com/weather/html/area-forecast-discussions.html  issued by the three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo region.

"Cleveland":http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/ -  (Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa counties)

q.
models have convection reaching nw oh about [4pm Mon].  forecast area remains in slight risk for severe thunderstorms monday afternoon/evening ahead of the front...just as weak low level jet moves into nw oh.  *main potential remains strong damaging winds and large hail.*
q..


"Northern Indiana":http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx - (Fulton and Henry counties)

q.
abundant cloud debris and possible precip in the 12-16z period tomorrow morning does not bode well for severe weather chances along actual cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon.

there is certainly some risk for severe weather but prefrontal clouds/precip and poor instability/lapse rates suggest a low risk at this point. if severe weather does occur... *the greatest threat will be in our eastern cwa with damaging straight line winds the primary hazard.*
q..

--CWA = County Warning Area--


"Detroit/Pontiac":http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/ -  (Monroe and Lenawee counties)

q.
more likely scenario is that the day starts out fairly quiet within the warm sector...with highs reaching a muggy 70-80 degrees and southerly gusts picking up in the afternoon to around 20 mph. 

although instability will build during the day...and storms are possible at any time with smaller-scale triggers...the best potential for storms and *a more organized threat for severe weather will be from 300 pm through 1000 pm* as the cold front approaches and works across the area.

...  instability does not look overly strong ...

30-40 kt low-level jet nosing into *southeast michigan* during the afternoon will also strengthen the wind field...increasing shear. taller/skinny cape and unidirectional wind profiles are more *supportive of damaging winds and heavy rain than anything else.*

but cannot rule out large hail or a small tornado as shear values do look high enough to support rotating updrafts. *torrential downpours and localized flooding also possible* with pw values in excess of 1.5 inches. 
q..

--PW = Precipitable Water -  measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.-- 

http://weather.gov/glossary


br. I don't think that Saturday afternoon's weather reached severe limits, but very heavy rain, "some decent wind gusts,":http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2015/05/10/Thunderstorms-cause-minor-damage-in-Toledo.html and pea-sized hail hit east Toledo. The storm moved south to north. We waited out the rain in the Marina District

!https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7672/17314049749_7f25b39786_n.jpg!

The heavy rain and hail nearly obscured the skyline.
!https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5466/17314005149_dd5254f7a7_n.jpg!


!https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5342/17318268939_60c5c8e294_o.jpg!

 #toledo #weather