h1. Toledo Weather - Mon, May 11, 2015 hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 422 am edt mon may 11 2015 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and early tonight. the primary threat will be strong damaging winds and large hail. .days two through seven...tuesday through sunday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ h2. Toledo Airport Conditions Toledo Express May 11, 2015 5:52 am Weather : Fog/Mist Temperature : 64 F Humidity : 96% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 29.93 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 5.00 statute miles External Link : 3-day history (formerly Metcalf Airport) May 11, 2015 5:53 am Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 66 F Humidity : 90% Wind Speed : S 5 mph Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) May 11, 2015 6:35 am Weather : Fog/Mist Temperature : 63 F Humidity : 94% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 61 F Visibility : 1.25 statute miles TOL: May 11, 2015 6:52 am Weather : Fog/Mist Temperature : 65 F Humidity : 97% Wind Speed : SSW 5 mph Barometer : 29.95 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 6.00 statute miles TOL: May 11, 2015 7:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 66 F Humidity : 87% Wind Speed : SW 8 mph Barometer : 29.97 in Dewpoint: 62 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles h2. Severe Weather Summary *Areas with the best chance for severe weather* * northeast Indiana * southern Michigan * northwest Ohio *Main window for severe weather* * between 3:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. * first line: between 4:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. * second line: between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. *Primary threats* * Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-plus mph, capable of downing trees and wires and possibly causing structural damage. * Brief but torrential rainfall, capable of producing flash flooding. *Secondary threats* * Hail at least 3/4-inch in diameter * Small tornadoes *Key ingredient* * Amount of sunshine this morning and early this afternoon. * If the sky clears this morning, and we have a mostly sunny day, then our temps will warm into the low to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 60s, and the severe threat increases. The storm strength will depend upon the other atmospheric variables. * At 6:00 a.m., our sky cover was at least 80%, comprised of low and mid level clouds. Muggy walk. * At 8:00 a.m., our sky cover was around 50%. High and mid level cloudiness. Mostly sunny sky. *Storm Prediction Center* * As of early this morning our region was still under a _Slight Risk_ for severe weather. The SPC will issue an updated convective outlook later this morning. We'll know then if our area will be upgraded to an _Enhanced Risk._ * If conditions warrant, I'm guessing that the SPC will issue a Mesoscale Discussion for the region between Noon and 3:00 p.m. The MD will mention the likelihood of a watch being issues. * If a watch is issued, I'm guessing that it will be issued between 1:00 and 3:00 p.m. h2. Early a.m. CO spc ac 110518 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1218 am cdt mon may 11 2015 valid 111200z - 121200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the srn plains...lower to mid ms valley...tn valley...oh valley...sern great lakes... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the srn plains...lower to mid ms valley...tn valley...oh valley...sern great lakes... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of ern nc... ...summary... scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front from lower michigan to central texas. isolated damaging winds and hail will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. a couple tornadoes may occur in the southern great lakes region. ...srn great lakes/oh valley/mid ms valley... an upper-level trough will move into the mid mo valley today as a cold front advances ewd across the mid to upper ms valley. thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front in the mid ms valley at the start of the period. this activity is forecast to spread quickly newd across the lower oh valley into the srn great lakes region by early afternoon. a corridor of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection by early afternoon from ern indiana and ohio nwd into sern lower mi. forecast soundings from nrn oh nwd to near detroit mi at 21z show sfc dewpoints in the lower 60s f contributing to sbcape near 1500 j/kg. in addition...directional shear is present from the sfc to 700 mb with wind speeds increasing with height in the mid levels...creating moderate deep-layer shear. this should be favorable for rotating storms and possibly a couple tornadoes as a 40 to 55 kt low-level jet moves across the region during the mid to late afternoon. rotating storms and organized line segments may also produce wind damage. further to the east across much of new york...the models develop an east-to-west axis of instability along and just to the south of a warm front. scattered thunderstorm development should take place along the front during the afternoon. instability may be enough combined with unidirectional wind profiles for marginally severe wind gusts. ...srn plains/arklatex/lower ms valley... the srn extent of an upper-level trough will move ewd across the srn plains today as a cold front advances sewd into the arklatex and tx hill country. ahead of the boundary...sfc dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s f should be in place...contributing to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon. thunderstorm development should take place along and ahead from the front from the tx hill country ewd into the lower ms valley. forecast soundings along this corridor at 00z/tue show mlcape values generally in the 2000 to 2500 j/kg range with 30 to 35 kt of deep-layer shear. this combined with steep lapse rates should be favorable for some severe storms with large-hail potential. supercells will be possible where deep-layer shear becomes locally enhanced but multicells are expected to be the most common storm type. in addition to the hail threat...a wind-damage threat should exist with storms that rotate and the more persistent line segments. ...ern nc... tropical depression ana is forecast to move newd from ne nc into sern va this morning. strong wind fields to the east of the center may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with convection that develops across the cape hatteras area and further inland across ne nc. ..broyles/leitman.. 05/11/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z h2. SPC CO May 7-11 All of these convective outlooks were for Mon, May 11. The SPC has shown northwest Ohio to be in the risk of severe weather since Thu, May 7. Day 5 convective outlook issued on Thu, May 7 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7665/16882293173_c35dea5ee5.jpg! Day 4 convective outlook issued on Fri, May 8 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8694/17314855648_10671021d8.jpg! Day 3 convective outlook issued on Sat, May 9 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8863/17517475982_bb075b5e6b.jpg! Day 2 convective outlook issued on Sun, May 10 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7758/16899363713_6ff47a9428.jpg! Day 1 convective outlook issued on Mon, May 11 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8875/17332173640_ca4b2271d4.jpg! Wind outlook !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8739/17332172130_462b0a1620.jpg! Hail outlook !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8884/17517556012_54d89f5310.jpg! Tornado outlook !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8874/16899444633_5bc485a7ce.jpg! Thunderstorm outlook between 12:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8833/17517553882_c28d5836d1.jpg! Thunderstorm outlook between 4:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. !https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5340/16897194294_a9cecdf92f.jpg! h2. 8:00 a.m. images It appears that we'll have a mostly sunny sky until around Noon to 2:00 p.m. The first line of storms may reach around 2:00 to 4:00 p.m., and they may be the strongest. !https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5330/17517800992_626d50e6b5.jpg! !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7774/17519825891_bc6abb0771_o.gif! h2. Forecast Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: May 11, 2015 6:10 am Today: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 81. South wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 4am. Low around 55. Southwest wind 11 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday: A slight chance of showers. Increasing clouds, with a high near 63. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind 11 to 18 mph. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 79. h2. AFD fxus61 kcle 111142 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 742 am edt mon may 11 2015 synopsis... low pressure over minnesota will move into eastern canada by tuesday dragging a series of cold fronts across the area early tonight through tuesday. high pressure will move east across the region wednesday night and thursday then a weak low will move across the southern part of the lakes along a warm front lifting north. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... enough upper ridging should hang on over the area for much of the day to limit convective coverage. by late in the day...the approach of a cold front...increased wind shear and improving upper dynamics should start to improve the chances for more widespread convection along with the possibility for severe storms. the ongoing forecast seems to have good handle on situation with ramp up in pops from west to east starting late in the day. one more very warm day in store before below normal temps return. highs should mainly run in the low to mid 80s. && short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... the first in a series of cold fronts should bring a band of strong to locally severe convection to the area as it sweeps west to east across the cwa. drier air quickly punches in behind the first front so most of the shra/tsra should be done with the first front leaving only widely sct shra left later in the night with the second front. on tue into tue night....the upper trough works east across lake erie with another reinforcing cold front. much of the deeper moisture stays over lake erie so expect sct light shra...especially for the ne lakeshore. tue should be a fairly windy day with winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. temps should rise only a few degrees on tue due to widespread clouds and the cold advection. most of the shra should taper off tue night from west to east but a few could linger in nw pa for a while wed morning. lows tue night tricky due to uncertainty as to how quickly the cloud cover start to dissipate. cold air aloft will act to produce additional daytime cu on wed then high pressure moves over the area for wed night. highs on wed will probably only range from around 60 in the sw to only around 50 in the ne. the cu field should dissipate in the evening and winds become light. this will set up a good radiational cooling night. concerned that guidance temps may not be cold enough and that some frost may occur so will trim guidance temps a little. high pressure will hang on for thu so a dry day in store. temps should moderate some but the models show a lot of high moisture/cirrus moving into the region ahead of the next system in the plains. the expected cirrus should help to keep lows in the 40s thu night. a southerly return flow should set up thu night and lower level moisture will start to increase. this may allow to some shra to push into the west part of the cwa by the latter part of the night. will divide the forecast for thu night to better show an increase in pop by the end of the night for the west. && long term /friday through sunday/... by friday the high will have slid off to the east and warmer and more moist flow will return for the weekend. upper ridge will break down some as fairly well agreed upon shortwave tops it as it crosses the lower great lakes at the end of the work week. will continue the rain chances friday/friday night. have lingered chances into saturday with some semblance of a surface front in the vicinity. precip chances return again sunday night as a warm front will be lifting northward. overall will be returning to above normal temperatures for the weekend. && aviation /12z monday through friday/... unsettled weather with a strong storm system moving through the region. aviation impacts will primarily be from thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. light southerly winds today will increase...with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible outside of thunderstorms...especially for tol/fdy/mfd/cle. vfr to start the day. a cold front will be crossing the area this evening...with an active prefrontal trough ahead of it. some of these thunderstorms may produce winds in excess of 45 knots and of course non vfr conditions. may have some mvfr cigs develop in the wake of the cold front monday night. southwest gusts on tuesday in excess of 30 knots likely. outlook...non vfr possible monday night. mvfr ceilings possible extreme ne oh/nw pa wednesday. non vfr possible again friday. && marine... light/variable flow to start the morning on the lake will become southerly today as a warm front lifts north of the lake. showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front for later this afternoon and evening. some of these storms may be strong with gusty winds. otherwise winds will pick up on the lake behind the front tonight and continue from a southwesterly direction on tuesday. winds will definitely be enough for small craft advisory on tuesday into wednesday. will top winds out at 25 or 30 knots tuesday...with the peak in cold air advection occurring. winds slowly subside going into mid week as high pressure passes overhead. the high shifts east by friday allowing for southerly flow. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...adams near term...adams short term...adams long term...oudeman aviation...oudeman marine...oudeman http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_5-tier_Convective_Outlook_Info_files/understanding_categories.png #toledo #weather