h1. Toledo Weather - Mon, May 11, 2015 hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 422 am edt mon may 11 2015 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and early tonight. the primary threat will be strong damaging winds and large hail. .days two through seven...tuesday through sunday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ h2. Toledo Airport Conditions Toledo Express May 11, 2015 5:52 am Weather : Fog/Mist Temperature : 64 F Humidity : 96% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 29.93 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 5.00 statute miles External Link : 3-day history (formerly Metcalf Airport) May 11, 2015 5:53 am Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 66 F Humidity : 90% Wind Speed : S 5 mph Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) May 11, 2015 6:35 am Weather : Fog/Mist Temperature : 63 F Humidity : 94% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 29.94 in Dewpoint: 61 F Visibility : 1.25 statute miles TOL: May 11, 2015 6:52 am Weather : Fog/Mist Temperature : 65 F Humidity : 97% Wind Speed : SSW 5 mph Barometer : 29.95 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 6.00 statute miles TOL: May 11, 2015 7:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 66 F Humidity : 87% Wind Speed : SW 8 mph Barometer : 29.97 in Dewpoint: 62 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles TOL: May 11, 2015 8:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 68 F Humidity : 81% Wind Speed : SSW 6 mph Barometer : 29.97 in Dewpoint: 62 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (formerly Metcalf Airport) May 11, 2015 8:53 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 70 F Humidity : 76% Wind Speed : SW 12 mph Barometer : 29.99 in Dewpoint: 62 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) May 11, 2015 8:54 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 70 F Humidity : 78% Wind Speed : SW 5 mph Barometer : 29.98 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles h2. Severe Weather Summary *Areas with the best chance for severe weather* * northeast Indiana * southern Michigan * northwest Ohio *Main window for severe weather* * between 3:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. * first line: between 4:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. * second line: between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. *Primary threats* * Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-plus mph, capable of downing trees and wires and possibly causing structural damage. * Brief but torrential rainfall, capable of producing flash flooding. *Secondary threats* * Hail at least 3/4-inch in diameter * Small tornadoes *Key ingredient* * Amount of sunshine this morning and early this afternoon. * If the sky clears this morning, and we have a mostly sunny day, then our temps will warm into the low to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 60s, and the severe threat increases. The storm strength will depend upon the other atmospheric variables. * At 6:00 a.m., our sky cover was at least 80%, comprised of low and mid level clouds. Muggy walk. * At 8:00 a.m., our sky cover was around 50%. High and mid level cloudiness. Mostly sunny sky. *Storm Prediction Center* * As of early this morning our region was still under a _Slight Risk_ for severe weather. The SPC will issue an updated convective outlook later this morning. We'll know then if our area will be upgraded to an _Enhanced Risk._ * If conditions warrant, I'm guessing that the SPC will issue a Mesoscale Discussion for the region between Noon and 3:00 p.m. The MD will mention the likelihood of a watch being issues. * If a watch is issued, I'm guessing that it will be issued between 1:00 and 3:00 p.m. h2. Early a.m. CO spc ac 110518 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1218 am cdt mon may 11 2015 valid 111200z - 121200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the srn plains...lower to mid ms valley...tn valley...oh valley...sern great lakes... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of the srn plains...lower to mid ms valley...tn valley...oh valley...sern great lakes... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms across parts of ern nc... ...summary... scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front from lower michigan to central texas. isolated damaging winds and hail will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. a couple tornadoes may occur in the southern great lakes region. ...srn great lakes/oh valley/mid ms valley... an upper-level trough will move into the mid mo valley today as a cold front advances ewd across the mid to upper ms valley. thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of the front in the mid ms valley at the start of the period. this activity is forecast to spread quickly newd across the lower oh valley into the srn great lakes region by early afternoon. a corridor of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection by early afternoon from ern indiana and ohio nwd into sern lower mi. forecast soundings from nrn oh nwd to near detroit mi at 21z show sfc dewpoints in the lower 60s f contributing to sbcape near 1500 j/kg. in addition...directional shear is present from the sfc to 700 mb with wind speeds increasing with height in the mid levels...creating moderate deep-layer shear. this should be favorable for rotating storms and possibly a couple tornadoes as a 40 to 55 kt low-level jet moves across the region during the mid to late afternoon. rotating storms and organized line segments may also produce wind damage. further to the east across much of new york...the models develop an east-to-west axis of instability along and just to the south of a warm front. scattered thunderstorm development should take place along the front during the afternoon. instability may be enough combined with unidirectional wind profiles for marginally severe wind gusts. ...srn plains/arklatex/lower ms valley... the srn extent of an upper-level trough will move ewd across the srn plains today as a cold front advances sewd into the arklatex and tx hill country. ahead of the boundary...sfc dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s f should be in place...contributing to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon. thunderstorm development should take place along and ahead from the front from the tx hill country ewd into the lower ms valley. forecast soundings along this corridor at 00z/tue show mlcape values generally in the 2000 to 2500 j/kg range with 30 to 35 kt of deep-layer shear. this combined with steep lapse rates should be favorable for some severe storms with large-hail potential. supercells will be possible where deep-layer shear becomes locally enhanced but multicells are expected to be the most common storm type. in addition to the hail threat...a wind-damage threat should exist with storms that rotate and the more persistent line segments. ...ern nc... tropical depression ana is forecast to move newd from ne nc into sern va this morning. strong wind fields to the east of the center may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with convection that develops across the cape hatteras area and further inland across ne nc. ..broyles/leitman.. 05/11/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z h2. SPC CO May 7-11 All of these convective outlooks were for Mon, May 11. The SPC has shown northwest Ohio to be in the risk of severe weather since Thu, May 7. Day 5 convective outlook issued on Thu, May 7 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7665/16882293173_c35dea5ee5.jpg! Day 4 convective outlook issued on Fri, May 8 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8694/17314855648_10671021d8.jpg! Day 3 convective outlook issued on Sat, May 9 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8863/17517475982_bb075b5e6b.jpg! Day 2 convective outlook issued on Sun, May 10 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7758/16899363713_6ff47a9428.jpg! Day 1 convective outlook issued on Mon, May 11 for Mon, May 11 !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8875/17332173640_ca4b2271d4.jpg! Wind outlook !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8739/17332172130_462b0a1620.jpg! Hail outlook !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8884/17517556012_54d89f5310.jpg! Tornado outlook !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8874/16899444633_5bc485a7ce.jpg! Thunderstorm outlook between 12:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8833/17517553882_c28d5836d1.jpg! Thunderstorm outlook between 4:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. !https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5340/16897194294_a9cecdf92f.jpg! Updated Day 1 Convective Outlook. No upgrade to enhanced. !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8815/16898601924_a0e628b06c.jpg! Map of low pressures and fronts. Good migrating songbird activity around our home this morning. The weather may have made for a big movement overnight. Need to check BSBO banding data to see how big today ends up being. !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8720/17520988931_2ab3fd78ec_o.png! spc ac 111253 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0753 am cdt mon may 11 2015 valid 111300z - 121200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms portions sern lower mi...oh...indiana...nrn ky... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms portions mid south across lower ms valley to s tx... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms elsewhere from s tx to portions wrn/nrn ny... ...summary... scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front over parts of lower michigan to the ohio valley...as well as from the mid south to south texas. damaging winds and hail will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. a couple of tornadoes may occur in the southern great lakes region. ...synopsis... progressive mid/upper-level pattern is fcst through period...featuring cyclones now evident in moisture-channel imagery over ern dakotas and offshore pac nw. nrn-plains cyclone is expected to move generally ewd across mn today...devolving into open-wave trough tonight across wi. this will occur as accompanying shortwave trough now over central high plains pivots ewd over ks/neb then newd across lm and lower mi...and another perturbation pivots sewd/ewd out of black hills region and across mid-upper ms valley. pac cyclone will move sewd to swrn ore and nwrn ca through period...and srn-stream perturbation now seen off baja will eject enewd across nwrn mex toward far w tx and big bend region. at sfc...cyclone now over srn mn is expected to move enewd across wrn/nrn wi by 00z...then occlude...with new low ejecting enewd across swrn que during 09-12z time frame. cold front...now extending from upper ms valley across ozarks to central/sw tx...is preceded along much of its length by convectively generated outflow/baroclinic boundary that is evident from srn il to nrn la and se tx. front itself should decelerate over s-central/se tx...perhaps merging with prefrontal boundary this aftn or overnight. cold front should move ewd to lower mi...indiana and central/ern ar by 00z...then to ern ny...central/srn appalachians and central ms around end of period. warm front should move nwd today through parts of wi...lm and lower mi ahead of sfc cyclone...and more slowly move nwd across wrn/nrn ny. ...s tx to lower ms valley... ref spc ww 163 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term info on svr threat over s tx. additional svr-tstm development is possible today over this corridor as air mass destabilizes in preconvective sector...including potential re-intensification of currently/mostly anafrontal squall line now evident from sern ar to se tx. damaging wind will be possible...and large-hail threat increases with wwd extent across s tx in proximity to steeper deep-layer lapse rates and larger diurnal cape. although mid/upper-level trough will be ejecting away from this area...leading to height rises...subtle impulses embedded within swly subtropical plume...combined with continued advection of eml off higher terrain of nrn mex...will help to maintain steep lapse rates aloft. meanwhile...combination of more direct lift from four primary sources should support potential for convective development across this swath today... 1. cold pools from any ongoing convection...especially la/se tx sector... 2. leftover outflow boundary/boundaries and related differential-heating zones extending from la/se tx tstm area swwd across s tx... 3. front...especially where it can access suitably unstable warm-sector air through gaps or mesobeta-scale recovery zones behind morning convection. s tx seems most probable for this process. 4. sfc diabatic heating and related differential-heating zones. svr potential should diminish late this evening over s-central/sw tx and with offshore movement of leading squall line farther e today. ...great lakes/oh valley region to mid south... one or more bkn bands of tstms are expected to develop through aftn and move newd across this region...offering primarily damaging-gust risk with a couple tornadoes also possible. although mid-upper level lapse rates will be mrgl...sufficient moistening has occurred such that cooling aloft shear of ejecting cyclone...combined with pockets of diurnal sfc heating...will yield supportive instability. mucape 500-1000 j/kg is possible...amidst 45-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes. sufficient component of mean-wind and deep-shear vectors across convective-band orientation is evident to suggest discrete storm modes as well..increasing probabilities for a few sustained supercells compared to areas farther s ahead of sfc cold front. relative min in svr potential is apparent between these two areas across lower oh valley and parts of mid south...where convergence along and ahead of cold front will be relatively minimized due to boundary-layer veering in preconvective sector...and convective plume has outpaced substantial waa/moisture-advection-related destabilization. in addition...cloud cover will limit diabatic sfc heating over this area. ...ern nc/sern va... remnants of td ana will proceed newd across ern sc and offshore hampton roads region through this evening. due to weakness of both instability and low-level shear...and lack of substantial convective structures...in weakening system...svr probabilities have been dropped. ..edwards/mosier.. 05/11/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z h2. 8:00 a.m. images It appears that we'll have a mostly sunny sky until around Noon to 2:00 p.m. The first line of storms may reach around 2:00 to 4:00 p.m., and they may be the strongest. !https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5330/17517800992_626d50e6b5.jpg! !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7774/17519825891_bc6abb0771_o.gif! h2. Forecast Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: May 11, 2015 6:10 am Today: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 81. South wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 4am. Low around 55. Southwest wind 11 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday: A slight chance of showers. Increasing clouds, with a high near 63. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind 11 to 18 mph. Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 79. h2. AFD fxus61 kcle 111142 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 742 am edt mon may 11 2015 synopsis... low pressure over minnesota will move into eastern canada by tuesday dragging a series of cold fronts across the area early tonight through tuesday. high pressure will move east across the region wednesday night and thursday then a weak low will move across the southern part of the lakes along a warm front lifting north. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... enough upper ridging should hang on over the area for much of the day to limit convective coverage. by late in the day...the approach of a cold front...increased wind shear and improving upper dynamics should start to improve the chances for more widespread convection along with the possibility for severe storms. the ongoing forecast seems to have good handle on situation with ramp up in pops from west to east starting late in the day. one more very warm day in store before below normal temps return. highs should mainly run in the low to mid 80s. && short term /6 pm this evening through thursday night/... the first in a series of cold fronts should bring a band of strong to locally severe convection to the area as it sweeps west to east across the cwa. drier air quickly punches in behind the first front so most of the shra/tsra should be done with the first front leaving only widely sct shra left later in the night with the second front. on tue into tue night....the upper trough works east across lake erie with another reinforcing cold front. much of the deeper moisture stays over lake erie so expect sct light shra...especially for the ne lakeshore. tue should be a fairly windy day with winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. temps should rise only a few degrees on tue due to widespread clouds and the cold advection. most of the shra should taper off tue night from west to east but a few could linger in nw pa for a while wed morning. lows tue night tricky due to uncertainty as to how quickly the cloud cover start to dissipate. cold air aloft will act to produce additional daytime cu on wed then high pressure moves over the area for wed night. highs on wed will probably only range from around 60 in the sw to only around 50 in the ne. the cu field should dissipate in the evening and winds become light. this will set up a good radiational cooling night. concerned that guidance temps may not be cold enough and that some frost may occur so will trim guidance temps a little. high pressure will hang on for thu so a dry day in store. temps should moderate some but the models show a lot of high moisture/cirrus moving into the region ahead of the next system in the plains. the expected cirrus should help to keep lows in the 40s thu night. a southerly return flow should set up thu night and lower level moisture will start to increase. this may allow to some shra to push into the west part of the cwa by the latter part of the night. will divide the forecast for thu night to better show an increase in pop by the end of the night for the west. && long term /friday through sunday/... by friday the high will have slid off to the east and warmer and more moist flow will return for the weekend. upper ridge will break down some as fairly well agreed upon shortwave tops it as it crosses the lower great lakes at the end of the work week. will continue the rain chances friday/friday night. have lingered chances into saturday with some semblance of a surface front in the vicinity. precip chances return again sunday night as a warm front will be lifting northward. overall will be returning to above normal temperatures for the weekend. && aviation /12z monday through friday/... unsettled weather with a strong storm system moving through the region. aviation impacts will primarily be from thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. light southerly winds today will increase...with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible outside of thunderstorms...especially for tol/fdy/mfd/cle. vfr to start the day. a cold front will be crossing the area this evening...with an active prefrontal trough ahead of it. some of these thunderstorms may produce winds in excess of 45 knots and of course non vfr conditions. may have some mvfr cigs develop in the wake of the cold front monday night. southwest gusts on tuesday in excess of 30 knots likely. outlook...non vfr possible monday night. mvfr ceilings possible extreme ne oh/nw pa wednesday. non vfr possible again friday. && marine... light/variable flow to start the morning on the lake will become southerly today as a warm front lifts north of the lake. showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front for later this afternoon and evening. some of these storms may be strong with gusty winds. otherwise winds will pick up on the lake behind the front tonight and continue from a southwesterly direction on tuesday. winds will definitely be enough for small craft advisory on tuesday into wednesday. will top winds out at 25 or 30 knots tuesday...with the peak in cold air advection occurring. winds slowly subside going into mid week as high pressure passes overhead. the high shifts east by friday allowing for southerly flow. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...adams near term...adams short term...adams long term...oudeman aviation...oudeman marine...oudeman http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_5-tier_Convective_Outlook_Info_files/understanding_categories.png h2. Mid-morning HWO hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 922 am edt mon may 11 2015 for lake erie...north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight. there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and early tonight. the primary threat will be strong damaging winds and large hail. an isolated tornado is also possible. .days two through seven...tuesday through sunday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... *spotter activation is not expected at this time.* h2. N. IN. AFD fxus63 kiwx 111047 afdiwx area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana 647 am edt mon may 11 2015 synopsis... issued at 413 am edt mon may 11 2015 showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area today...especially between mid morning and early evening. severe weather is possible this afternoon into early evening...especially over east and northeast indiana...northwest ohio and southeast lower michigan. high temperatures will range from the lower 80s east to lower and middle 70s west. rain chances will decrease tonight as it becomes cooler and less humid behind a cold front. lows will drop into the 50s. && short term...(today and tonight) issued at 413 am edt mon may 11 2015 severe weather and locally heavy rain threat today remains the concern in the short term period. water vapor this morning shows upper low in the dakotas with sfc low over eastern sd. occluded front stretches to triple point in ia with quasi stationary boundary east through northern indiana and a trailing cold front from ia into tx. regional radar mosaic showed a large area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain ahead of the cold front lifting northeast through southeast mo into southern il early this morning. quasi stationary boundary expected to lift into southern mi this morning as south southwest low level flow increases. this puts our area in the warm sector today though existing cloud cover remains problematic and conditional for severe weather chances this afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear increases to around 40 knots by afternoon as mid level height falls spread east. short wave responsible for mo convection this morning expected to lift northeast across our region while associated pcpn to move into southwest area this morning. most guidance in agreement on bulk of this pcpn moving northeast through about the western half of our cwa this morning which keeps severe weather threat there quite low with lack of any heating and destabilization. pwat values close to 1.75 inches though supports locally heavy rainfall today which could create some localized flooding issues in areas that have seen rain past few days. the question then for this afternoon is whether we can see any breaks in cloud cover over the east to allow some heating and destabilization for stronger thunderstorm development ahead of main cold front. nam12 soundings most aggressive with mucapes to between 1 and 2k j/kg along with the deep layer shear of 40 knots. this more than sufficient for severe storms but again...conditional on the cloud cover and heating to generate the increased cape values. damaging winds and hail would be primary hazards if severe weather does develop. however...there is some low level directional shear noted in the soundings over our northeast which coupled with the strong deep layer shear could aid in a few stronger rotating storms and possibility of an isolated tornado...assuming instability materializes. spc has included this region in a slight risk today along with a 5 percent prob for tornadoes. bulk of convection should be into nw ohio by early evening and quickly exiting our local area around 00z/12. some hints at a few lingering showers with main front and cold air advection in the evening so have left a small chance for showers through midnight. drier air to clear things out late before wrap around clouds begin to invade the north toward sunrise. && long term...(tuesday through sunday) issued at 413 am edt mon may 11 2015 upper trough axis will work through the great lakes region on tuesday. steepening low level lapse rates under this cold pocket aloft should provide good momentum transfer for 30-35 mph gusts...with potential for just enough wrap around moisture to spark a few showers/sprinkles across far northeastern zones by late morning/afternoon. dry/much cooler with a bkn/ovc stratocu deck otherwise tuesday. building heights in wake of the upper trough will allow high pressure to build in for the middle of the week. temps will gradually rebound but remain below normal for the most part through thursday. shower/storm chances and milder temps then return friday into next weekend as moisture increases on the backside of high pressure and several shortwaves eject through in developing southwest flow. && aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z tuesday morning) issued at 639 am edt mon may 11 2015 regional radar mosaic shows large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting northeast through il this morning. this area will slide east this morning with rain moving into ksbn around 15z. rain shield continues to move east while main short wave over eastern arkansas this morning races into indiana by afternoon. this will set the stage for stronger thunderstorms near kfwa provided atmosphere can sufficiently destabilize. potential wind gusts to 60 knots possible if stronger storms develop. partial clearing expected this evening in wake of cold front. && iwx watches/warnings/advisories... in...none. mi...none. oh...none. lm...dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for lmz043-046. && $$ synopsis...lashley short term...lashley long term...steinwedel aviation...lashley visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx (all lower case) follow us on facebook...twitter...and youtube at: www.facebook.com/nwsnorthernindiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/nwsnorthernindiana h2. Det/Pon AFD link fxus63 kdtx 111517 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 1117 am edt mon may 11 2015 update... difficult forecast to get a handle on the evolution of this afternoons convection. basic synoptic setup referenced in early discussions remain the same. current showers and storms over the western half of indiana and lake mi were several hours ahead of schedule based off of 00z and 06z hi res runs. this band of showers and storms was spreading cloud cover across most of indiana and western lower which could compromise the atmosphere for the afternoon. despite the slightly eastward advance of the rain shield...timing of 3 pm to 9 pm for the best coverage and intensity for the southeast mi thunderstorms is still on target. several arms of moisture/theta-e advection were also kicking off showers. the first extended across saginaw bay into the tip of the thumb...while the other moisture surge triggered showers in sc lower mi and nw oh. this surge will work through the cwa early this afternoon. that leaves the question of how much instability do we achieve and where will it be maximized. a temp of 80 and dew point of 62 gets a mlcape around 1000 j/kg from 12z dtx and nam/hi res forecast soundings. that is possible in the southeast 1/4 to 1/2 of the cwa with a few peaks of sunshine during the afternoon. something like an ozw to sandusky line and south would seem to be the threat area. 12z dtx sounding should have some air mass replacement...and expect to send up an 18z sounding to sample that. wind fields will be the most notable as the 50-60kt 500 mb jet and 35-50kt 850 mb jet move into the southern great lakes. with enough instability...could be a few shallow supercells that develop initially before they transition into small bowing segments. with the increasing low level wind enough 0-1km shear and helicity that if the storms develop...the storms could rotate. lcl is forecast to be rather robust...but given the lack of full sunshine...the mixed layer could be lower. will continue to highlight wind as the greatest threat...with just an isolated threat from hail or a tornado. any flood threat should be localized as the storms should have a decent forward propagation component to them. && aviation...issued 646 am edt mon may 11 2015 ifr/lifr cigs/vsbys will steadily improve early in the forecast as low level mixing increases and frontal boundary shifts north during the morning. by mid/late morning...vfr conditions should become the rule...with the transition occurring from south to north. attention then turns to convective potential late today as a cold front works into the area. timeframe still looks to be roughly 18z-20z through 00z-02z or so...with ifr/mvfr conditions with some of this activity. sct-bkn lower vfr conditions are then expected tonight in the wake of this activity with steady 10-12kt sw flow persisting. for dtw...lower cigs/vsbys will lift in the 12z-14z time frame as southerly flow gradually mixes to the surface. after a relatively quiet mid morning to early afternoon...expect shras/tsras to spread back into the terminal by 20z or so...and persist at times through 01z as a cold front pivots through the area. ifr/mvfr conditions will be possible with some of this activity. //dtw threshold probabilities... * medium in ceilings aob 5kft 18z-04z this afternoon and evening. * medium in thunderstorm occurrence after 20z this afternoon. h2. Noon Time weather From the 11:17 a.m. Det/Pon AFD q. that leaves the question of how much instability do we achieve and where will it be maximized. a temp of 80 and dew point of 62 gets a mlcape around 1000 j/kg from 12z dtx and nam/hi res forecast soundings. that is possible in the southeast 1/4 to 1/2 of the cwa with a few peaks of sunshine during the afternoon. something like an ozw to sandusky line and south would seem to be the threat area. q.. TOL: May 11, 2015 11:52 am Weather : Mostly Cloudy Temperature : 75 F Humidity : 64% Wind Speed : SW 12 mph - Gust 20 mph Barometer : 29.97 in Dewpoint: 62 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Seems mostly sunny or at least partly cloudy to me. Temps not as warm at Noon as originally thought, though. Although Toledo Executive is warmer. (formerly Metcalf Airport) May 11, 2015 11:53 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 79 F Humidity : 52% Wind Speed : SW 13 mph Barometer : 29.97 in Dewpoint: 60 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles (near Lambertville) May 11, 2015 11:54 am Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 77 F Humidity : 61% Wind Speed : SW 8 mph Barometer : 29.96 in Dewpoint: 63 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wundermap at 12:08 p.m. shows Toledo area temps mainly in the 75 to 78 degree range. Temps, however, were in the low to mid 80s east and south of Toledo. Port Clinton - Sandusky - Findlay were in the 80s at 12:10 p.m. Basically, east of I-75 and south of the lake shore were in the low to mid 80s around Noon. Maybe the worst storms will occur east and south of Toledo. h2. MD !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd0606.gif! md 0606 concerning severe potential...tornado watch likely for portions of ohio...indiana...southern lower michigan...far northern kentucky mesoscale discussion 0606 nws storm prediction center norman ok 1148 am cdt mon may 11 2015 areas affected...portions of ohio...indiana...southern lower michigan...far northern kentucky concerning...severe potential...tornado watch likely valid 111648z - 111915z probability of watch issuance...80 percent summary...portions of the lower great lakes and ohio valley region are being monitored for an increasing risk of severe thunderstorms including the potential for a few tornadoes. the issuance of a tornado watch is likely. discussion...a cluster of convection intensifying across southern indiana can be traced back to a long-lived convective circulation emanating from southern-plains diurnally enhanced thunderstorms from yesterday afternoon. this activity continues cycling -- having weakened in response to nocturnal cooling -- and should continue to re-intensify as it tracks newd across parts of indiana and wrn ohio to srn lower mi. this zone aligns with vis-imagery-implied... diurnally enhanced baroclinicity owing to differential heating across the remnant cloud shield from more widespread decayed convection. as baroclinic circulations intensify through the afternoon...and the air mass becomes increasingly unstable amidst lower 60s sfc dewpoints...other convection will increase in coverage and intensity within a warm sector s of a synoptic warm front advancing nwd across srn lower mi. mlcape within the warm sector air is projected to peak around 1000-1500 j/kg...while 30-50 kt of effective bulk shear supports small...fast moving bowing segments capable of dmgg wind gusts. the ind vwp samples 45-55 kt of flow in the 1-3-km-agl layer...enhancing the risk for dmgg wind gusts by convective momentum transport. while directional shear/hodograph curvature will be limited in general -- except invof the mi warm front -- the magnitude of low-level shear will be sufficient for a tornado risk with any sustained supercell storms / lewp inflections. such risk will be greatest near backed sfc flow invof the warm front. ..cohen/corfidi.. 05/11/2015 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...lmk...iwx...grr...ind... lat...lon 39238659 41358562 43638432 43418249 41828232 39908295 38618453 38468601 39238659 h2. Tornado Watch tornado watch outline update for wt 164 nws storm prediction center norman ok 110 pm edt mon may 11 2015 tornado watch 164 is in effect until 800 pm edt for the following locations ohc003-005-011-017-021-023-025-027-033-037-039-041-043-045-047- 049-051-057-061-063-065-069-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-101-107- 109-113-117-123-125-129-135-137-139-143-147-149-159-161-165-171- 173-175-120000- /o.new.kwns.to.a.0164.150511t1710z-150512t0000z/ oh . ohio counties included are allen ashland auglaize butler champaign clark clermont clinton crawford darke defiance delaware erie fairfield fayette franklin fulton greene hamilton hancock hardin henry huron knox licking logan lorain lucas madison marion mercer miami montgomery morrow ottawa paulding pickaway preble putnam richland sandusky seneca shelby union van wert warren williams wood wyandot $$ URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 110 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA NORTHERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WESTERN ANDN NORTHERN OHIO LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS AND STORMS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES...EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...A COUPLE TORNADOES...AND SEVERE HAIL. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. h2. Early PM CO !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7734/17499499876_aef328f968.jpg! !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8886/17339576729_17b792c60e.jpg! h2. Early PM Notes Guesses this morning have occurred, although nothing was a stretch. * The SPC upgraded our area to an _Enhanced Risk._ * The SPC issued a mesoscale discussion between Noon and 3:00 p.m. (issued at 12:48 p.m. EDT). * The SPC issued a watch between 1:00 p.m. and 3:00 p.m. (tornado watch issued at 1:10 p.m. EDT). h2. Warnings and Watches Tornado Warning Statement as of 1:34 PM EDT on May 11, 2015 ... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for central Allen County until 145 PM EDT... At 133 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 5 miles southeast of New Haven... and moving northeast at 35 mph. Hazard... tornado. Source... radar indicated rotation. Impact... Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... New Haven... Tillman... Zulu and Townley. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Lat... Lon 4096 8497 4102 8508 4118 8497 4104 8480 time... Mot... loc 1734z 226deg 32kt 4100 8497 Tornado... radar indicated hail... 0.00in br. That one will miss Van Wert County. Anytime a threat of severe weather exist within our region, my bet is on Van Wert County getting pounded. br. Paulding County in Ohio will probably warned soon. hr. Severe Thunderstorm Warning Statement as of 1:41 PM EDT on May 11, 2015 The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... eastern Allen County in Northeast Indiana... southeastern De Kalb County in Northeast Indiana... Defiance County in Northwest Ohio... northwestern Paulding County in west central Ohio... * until 215 PM EDT * at 138 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of Woodburn... and moving northeast at 55 mph. Hazard... quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Source... radar indicated. Impact... hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs... siding and trees. * The severe thunderstorm will be near... Antwerp around 150 PM EDT. Hicksville around 155 PM EDT. Other locations in the warning include Georgetown... Mark Center... Farmer and Ney. This includes Interstate 469 between mile markers 23 and 25. Precautionary/preparedness actions... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Lat... Lon 4105 8471 4100 8491 4113 8502 4143 8482 4142 8427 time... Mot... loc 1741z 215deg 47kt 4111 8489 Hail... 1.00in wind... 60mph Jball br. If the cell holds, parts of Williams and maybe Fulton counties will be warned. We'll see if the storm is fizzling out, or if it's capable of maintaining, even cycling back upward. If no warnings for Williams and/or Fulton counties, then it's a short-lived cell, and not a super-cell. http://www.digital-topo-maps.com/county-map/ohio-county-map.gif #toledo #weather