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Toledo Weather Thu, May 21, 2015 TOL: May 21, 2015 7:52 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 48 F Humidity : 83% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 30.04 in Dewpoint: 43 F Visibility : 9.00 statute miles (formerly Metcalf Airport) May 21, 2015 7:53 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 50 F Humidity : 77% Wind Speed : WNW 8 mph Barometer : 30.05 in Dewpoint: 43 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 47 F (near Lambertville) May 21, 2015 7:55 am Weather : Overcast Temperature : 50 F Humidity : 82% Wind Speed : NW 3 mph Barometer : 30.05 in Dewpoint: 45 F Visibility : 7.00 statute miles Wind Chill : 50 F fxus61 kcle 211142 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 742 am edt thu may 21 2015 synopsis... high pressure over the plains states will begin to move east. a weak cold front from the northern great lakes will brush the area on friday. the high pressure area will be overhead on saturday then move to the east coast on sunday. a warm front will develop over the area by monday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... forecast seems on track. virtually all of the showers have moved east of the area. made some minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures today based on the current trends but did not change the forecast highs for the day. also minor adjustments to the hourly sky cover. no other changes for the early morning update. original "today" discussion... the old upper low will continue to slide east this morning and shear and weaken. on its current pace...the patchy light showers/ sprinkles will move east of the forecast area about 6 am and will not mention it in the forecast for today. a little nervous about a trailing short wave that will cross the area this morning. given the low dew points and how little rain has made it to the ground with the first system...will not mention any more sprinkles although a few drops possible this morning. clearing should reach the toledo area late this morning and advance southeast this afternoon. still rather cool with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s except mid 60s northwest ohio. && short term /6 pm this evening through sunday night/... a weak cold front will approach later tonight. cannot rule out a shower and came up with "slight chance" pops. enough of a breeze tonight and increasing clouds to keep temperatures from bottoming out. lows in the 40s. the weak cold front will slide southeast of the area friday morning. subsidence and drying should increase and we should see clearing from northwest to southeast although will be more pessimistic for northeast oh and northwest pa where the cold air aloft and cyclonic flow may cause a fair amount of clouds to linger. highs from the lower 60s nw oh to the lower 50s nw pa. a large area of chilly high pressure will work across the area friday and saturday. will include frost for extreme northeast ohio and northwest pa later friday night thru early saturday morning. the colder spots may well bottom out around freezing so it is possible that a freeze watch/warning may be necessary. at the very least...a frost advisory. prefer to see temps at or below freezing for at least a couple of hours for a true freeze and will hold off on a freeze watch for the time being. will likely start to see some high clouds saturday but we should still see plenty of sunshine. temperatures should recover to near normal. worried about a fair amount of mid/high clouds on sunday as strong warm advection develops...especially to the west and north. i doubt there would be much in the way of showers although we can sometimes get some showers spilling over in the northwest flow aloft. probably not a significant risk of thunder until sunday night as the lower layers will remain rather dry and stable on sunday until it moistens up. temperatures are a bit tricky on sunday. the air mass can support mid to upper 70s perhaps 80 but will not go quite that warm given the concerns for clouds. && long term /monday through wednesday/... a warm and active pattern will return for the extended forecast. a warm front is forecast to lift north across the area during the sunday night/monday day time frame. showers with a chance of thunderstorms will likely accompany the front with coverage of showers decreasing as the front lifts north. hard to determine where exactly the front will be located this far out but the gfs/gem actually have it north of the area by monday morning. warm fronts tend to get held up in the vicinity of lake erie this time of year so will keep a little higher pop going in the northeastern areas on monday. after that we will be in the warm sector with a steady supply of moisture from the gulf setting up for much of the week. gfs has pw values up between 1.5-1.75 inches through mid-week. the upper level ridge axis should shift east of the area by monday night allowing shortwave energy moving overhead to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms on tuesday and wednesday. highs will depend on coverage of cloud cover so kept values conservative in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. && aviation /12z thursday through monday/... vfr conditions expected through the taf cycle as a mid cloud deck between 5-12k will gradually clear this afternoon into this evening. northwest winds at most sites today will back to west southwest tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. the cold front will push south towards the end of the taf period with winds shifting back to northwest. outlook...non vfr possible sunday night into monday in showers and thunderstorms. && marine... generally light winds this morning will develop out of the west/southwest today and increase to near 15 knots tonight ahead of an approaching trough. a cold front will push south across the lake on friday with winds veering to northwest and increasing to 15-20 knots on the east end. waves will build into the 2-4 foot range for friday evening but at this time are forecast to remain below small craft advisory criteria. high pressure builds overhead on friday night...then off the east coast through sunday. a warm front will lift north across the lake on monday with southerly winds and chances of thunderstorms setting up for much of next week. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...kosarik near term...kosarik short term...kosarik long term...kec aviation...kec marine...kec Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: May 21, 2015 7:09 am Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 65. West wind 5 to 11 mph. Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 45. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Sunday: A chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Memorial Day: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%. #toledo #weather