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Toledo Weather - Wed, May 27, 2015 Storms and/or wind gusts caused some minor damage and power outages in the Toledo area yesterday between 6:00 and 7:00 p.m. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 529 am edt wed may 27 2015 for portions of lake erie... north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the region this afternoon into the evening. the main threat will be strong damaging winds but large hail will be possible. a weakening cold front will move into northwest ohio this afternoon with thunderstorms developing along it. these thunderstorms will move eastward through the evening and could impact all of northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday severe thunderstorms will be possible saturday afternoon and evening as another cold front moves across the area. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be required. hr. spc ac 271252 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0752 am cdt wed may 27 2015 valid 271300z - 281200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over parts of the oh valley... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the mid atlantic states into new england... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over the central and southern high plains... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over parts of the central and eastern us... ...summary... severe storms are possible today across parts of the northern mid atlantic coast region into northern new england...as well as parts of the upper ohio valley and lower great lakes region...and portions of the central high plains into the southern plains. ...ohio valley... morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough moving across ia/mo. a persistent cluster of thunderstorms is associated with this trough over southeast mo. early visible satellite imagery shows relatively clear skies downstream of the convection...which should allow rapid heating and destabilization. present indications are that this cluster of storms will intensify by late morning over southern ind/western ky and track northeastward across oh into western pa. mlcape values over 1500 j/kg and 40-50 knots of mid level flow support a risk of locally damaging winds and hail in these areas. ...mid atlantic region into new england... a band of showers currently extends from western ny southward into wv. this weak convection is associated with a lead shortwave trough that will move eastward into parts of the mid atlantic region and new england later today. strong heating in this region coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will help yield mlcape values over 1000 j/kg. most cam solutions show scattered thunderstorm development along this corridor by mid afternoon. low level and deep layer shear profiles are favorable for organized/bowing storm structures capable of locally damaging winds. any storm that can remain discrete in this region would pose a marginal risk for a tornado as well. ...central/southern high plains... strong heating will occur once again today over parts of eastern co/western ky and southwest neb...southward into tx and western ok. similar to yesterday...moderate cape values and a breakable cap will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline. the highest probability of storms appears to be from southwest neb into northwest ok. strengthening low level winds this evening and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of supercells capable of hail...damaging winds...and isolated tornadoes. ..hart/gleason.. 05/27/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z hr. fxus61 kcle 271352 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 952 am edt wed may 27 2015 synopsis... a weakening cold front will cross the region late this afternoon into the evening. high pressure will briefly be located over the region on thursday but will move off the new england coast early friday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... update...no changes for the update. original...a weakening cold front will cross the region late this afternoon into the evening. the area looks to be dry through the morning but with afternoon heating and the lift near and ahead of the front there should be some convective development. some of the thunderstorms will have the potential to produce some stronger wind as they cross northern ohio and nw pa. temperatures aloft may also cool enough to allow for the development of some hail. will mention the severe potential in the hwo. it will be another warm day under variable amounts of cloud cover. most locations should warm into the lower 80s. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... cold front should be east of the county warning area near or shortly after midnight with the thunder moving eastward with it. high pressure should then take control for about 24 hours with dry conditions expected thursday into friday. we will have to monitor nw ohio friday evening to see if any convection can drift into the region ahead of the next cold front. the main push of thunderstorms should hold off until saturday afternoon and evening. these thunderstorms will again have a chance to become severe. temperatures will only cool slightly for thursday in the wake of the weak front. most locations will be within a couple degrees of 80. cooler near the lakeshore with a lake breeze developing. friday will see highs return to at least the middle 80s. a few degrees cooler on saturday with more cloud cover. && long term /sunday through tuesday/... trend continues for saturdays cold front to be south of the area by sunday. have therefore trended precip chances down...but still left some as there are still discrepancies on how far south it gets. at any rate it will be much cooler with high pressure building to our north and northerly flow across our area. fair weather and high pressure by tuesday with highs slowly trending warmer. overall though temperatures near seasonal averages. && aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/... todays cold front that will bring showers/thunderstorms to the terminals was located just west of chicago at 11z. expect quick cumulus development this morning...with some mvfr ceilings at first especially across eastern oh/nw pa. vfr by midday/early afternoon. ssw winds will gust upwards of 30 knots today. thunderstorms this afternoon will bring local ifr conditions and also the potential for winds to exceed 40 knots. for tonight...after the cold frontal passage...wind become light and skies will at least partially clear. with lingering low level moisture fog/br may be a possibility. outlook...local/brief mvfr/ifr conditions saturday in shra/ts. non vfr possible into sunday. && marine... a cold front will be crossing lake erie this evening with potentially strong thunderstorms. southwest winds will shift to the northwest late tonight and become light with high pressure overhead. the high shifts east friday and southerly flow returns to the lake. a strong cold front is expected saturday. could see a small craft advisory for saturday into sunday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... pa...none. ny...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...mullen near term...tk/mullen short term...mullen long term...oudeman aviation...oudeman marine...oudeman #toledo #weather