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Toledo Weather - Wed, May 27, 2015 http://jothut.com/cgi-bin/junco.pl/replies/54794 Storms and/or wind gusts caused some minor damage and power outages in the Toledo area yesterday between 6:00 and 7:00 p.m. hr. hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 529 am edt wed may 27 2015 for portions of lake erie... north central ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .day one...today and tonight there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the region this afternoon into the evening. the main threat will be strong damaging winds but large hail will be possible. a weakening cold front will move into northwest ohio this afternoon with thunderstorms developing along it. these thunderstorms will move eastward through the evening and could impact all of northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania. .days two through seven...thursday through tuesday severe thunderstorms will be possible saturday afternoon and evening as another cold front moves across the area. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be required. hr. spc ac 271252 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0752 am cdt wed may 27 2015 valid 271300z - 281200z ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over parts of the oh valley... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the mid atlantic states into new england... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over the central and southern high plains... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms over parts of the central and eastern us... ...summary... severe storms are possible today across parts of the northern mid atlantic coast region into northern new england...as well as parts of the upper ohio valley and lower great lakes region...and portions of the central high plains into the southern plains. ...ohio valley... morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough moving across ia/mo. a persistent cluster of thunderstorms is associated with this trough over southeast mo. early visible satellite imagery shows relatively clear skies downstream of the convection...which should allow rapid heating and destabilization. present indications are that this cluster of storms will intensify by late morning over southern ind/western ky and track northeastward across oh into western pa. mlcape values over 1500 j/kg and 40-50 knots of mid level flow support a risk of locally damaging winds and hail in these areas. ...mid atlantic region into new england... a band of showers currently extends from western ny southward into wv. this weak convection is associated with a lead shortwave trough that will move eastward into parts of the mid atlantic region and new england later today. strong heating in this region coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will help yield mlcape values over 1000 j/kg. most cam solutions show scattered thunderstorm development along this corridor by mid afternoon. low level and deep layer shear profiles are favorable for organized/bowing storm structures capable of locally damaging winds. any storm that can remain discrete in this region would pose a marginal risk for a tornado as well. ...central/southern high plains... strong heating will occur once again today over parts of eastern co/western ky and southwest neb...southward into tx and western ok. similar to yesterday...moderate cape values and a breakable cap will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline. the highest probability of storms appears to be from southwest neb into northwest ok. strengthening low level winds this evening and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of supercells capable of hail...damaging winds...and isolated tornadoes. ..hart/gleason.. 05/27/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z hr. fxus61 kcle 271352 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 952 am edt wed may 27 2015 synopsis... a weakening cold front will cross the region late this afternoon into the evening. high pressure will briefly be located over the region on thursday but will move off the new england coast early friday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... update...no changes for the update. original...a weakening cold front will cross the region late this afternoon into the evening. the area looks to be dry through the morning but with afternoon heating and the lift near and ahead of the front there should be some convective development. some of the thunderstorms will have the potential to produce some stronger wind as they cross northern ohio and nw pa. temperatures aloft may also cool enough to allow for the development of some hail. will mention the severe potential in the hwo. it will be another warm day under variable amounts of cloud cover. most locations should warm into the lower 80s. && short term /6 pm this evening through saturday night/... cold front should be east of the county warning area near or shortly after midnight with the thunder moving eastward with it. high pressure should then take control for about 24 hours with dry conditions expected thursday into friday. we will have to monitor nw ohio friday evening to see if any convection can drift into the region ahead of the next cold front. the main push of thunderstorms should hold off until saturday afternoon and evening. these thunderstorms will again have a chance to become severe. temperatures will only cool slightly for thursday in the wake of the weak front. most locations will be within a couple degrees of 80. cooler near the lakeshore with a lake breeze developing. friday will see highs return to at least the middle 80s. a few degrees cooler on saturday with more cloud cover. && long term /sunday through tuesday/... trend continues for saturdays cold front to be south of the area by sunday. have therefore trended precip chances down...but still left some as there are still discrepancies on how far south it gets. at any rate it will be much cooler with high pressure building to our north and northerly flow across our area. fair weather and high pressure by tuesday with highs slowly trending warmer. overall though temperatures near seasonal averages. && aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/... todays cold front that will bring showers/thunderstorms to the terminals was located just west of chicago at 11z. expect quick cumulus development this morning...with some mvfr ceilings at first especially across eastern oh/nw pa. vfr by midday/early afternoon. ssw winds will gust upwards of 30 knots today. thunderstorms this afternoon will bring local ifr conditions and also the potential for winds to exceed 40 knots. for tonight...after the cold frontal passage...wind become light and skies will at least partially clear. with lingering low level moisture fog/br may be a possibility. outlook...local/brief mvfr/ifr conditions saturday in shra/ts. non vfr possible into sunday. && marine... a cold front will be crossing lake erie this evening with potentially strong thunderstorms. southwest winds will shift to the northwest late tonight and become light with high pressure overhead. the high shifts east friday and southerly flow returns to the lake. a strong cold front is expected saturday. could see a small craft advisory for saturday into sunday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... pa...none. ny...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...mullen near term...tk/mullen short term...mullen long term...oudeman aviation...oudeman marine...oudeman br. As of 8:52 a.m. EDT on Wed, May 27, the Toledo area remained under a slight risk for severe weather yet again today. q. the main threat will be strong damaging winds but large hail will be possible. q.. !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7739/18164270591_819c4cf865.jpg! br. WTOL Meteorologist "Ryan Wichman'":https://twitter.com/ryan_wichman tweets from this morning: q. "#":https://twitter.com/Ryan_Wichman/status/603554680078245888 - Pouring over data but the severe threat today looks just as high today as it did yesterday. Could be a busy PM of watches/warnings. "#":https://twitter.com/Ryan_Wichman/status/603565956942659584 - Wednesday Severe Update: Timing: 3-7pm. "#":https://twitter.com/Ryan_Wichman/status/603539500694904832 - Storms Tuesday came from the south. Storms today will be coming from the west. q.. br. The NWS is looking ahead to Sat, May 30. q. we will have to monitor nw ohio friday evening to see if any convection can drift into the region ahead of the next cold front. the main push of thunderstorms should hold off until saturday afternoon and evening. these thunderstorms will again have a chance to become severe. q.. br. Some area storm reports from yesterday, May 26. fence.preliminary local storm report...summary national weather service cleveland oh 1029 pm edt tue may 26 2015 ..time... ...event... ...city location... ...lat.lon... ..date... ....mag.... ..county location..st.. ...source.... ..remarks.. 0537 pm tstm wnd gst findlay airport 41.01n 83.48w 05/26/2015 m70.00 mph hancock oh asos kfdy asos measured a wind gust of 61kts. 0554 pm tstm wnd gst bowling green 41.38n 83.65w 05/26/2015 m55.00 mph wood oh trained spotter trained spotter reported a 55 mph wind gust near bowling green. 0555 pm tstm wnd dmg 1 s norwalk 41.23n 82.61w 05/26/2015 huron oh trained spotter estimated 60 mph wind gust near norwalk. multiple 2 foot diameter trees down. power outage in area. 0612 pm tstm wnd dmg 3 w gibsonburg 41.39n 83.38w 05/26/2015 sandusky oh fire dept/rescue multiple trees down west of the town of gibsonburg on cr 55. 0615 pm tstm wnd dmg helena 41.34n 83.29w 05/26/2015 sandusky oh fire dept/rescue overturned semi truck reported in helena. 0620 pm tstm wnd dmg oak harbor 41.51n 83.15w 05/26/2015 ottawa oh trained spotter trained spotter reported several trees down in the town of oak harbor. the roof of an auto parts store in the center of town was ripped off and damaged. 0620 pm tstm wnd dmg 5 w bucyrus 40.80n 83.07w 05/26/2015 crawford oh trained spotter trained spotter reported a semi blown over at us 30 and knauss road, west of bucyrus. a barn roof was also damaged near this location. 0625 pm tstm wnd dmg 4 w bucyrus 40.80n 83.05w 05/26/2015 crawford oh 911 call center reports of power poles and lines down near us 30 and cr 22, west of bucyrus. report relayed by spotter and confirmed by county sheriff dispatch. 0635 pm tstm wnd dmg oregon 41.67n 83.42w 05/26/2015 lucas oh trained spotter approx. 1 square mile power outage in oregon fence.. hr. Mesoscale discussion issued at 12:09 p.m. EDT. !http://toledotalk.com/weather/images/mcd0802.gif! md 0802 concerning severe potential...watch possible for srn lower mi/e central il/nrn indiana/nwrn oh mesoscale discussion 0802 nws storm prediction center norman ok 1109 am cdt wed may 27 2015 areas affected...srn lower mi/e central il/nrn indiana/nwrn oh concerning...severe potential...watch possible valid 271609z - 271745z probability of watch issuance...60 percent summary...storms are forecast to increase in coverage/intensity across the sern upper great lakes and swd into the indiana/nwrn oh vicinity. damaging wind risk will likely evolve locally with stronger cells...which warrants ww consideration within the next hour or so. discussion...recent wv loop reveals a vort max crossing lk mi into w central lower mi attm...veered/unidirectional -- but increasing -- flow with height is observed just s of the newd track of this feature...resulting in a wind profile featuring ample speed shear for organized/bowing convection and associated risk for damaging winds. heating of the relatively moist boundary layer /low to mid 60s dewpoints/ this morning has pushed mixed-layer cape values to around 1000 j/kg per latest objective analyses...which has been sufficient for a marked increase in tcu/a few cb within the past half hour. with storms likely to increase/organize over the next couple of hours...risk for damaging winds and isolated/marginal hail may require ww issuance prior to 27/17z. ..goss/mead.. 05/27/2015 ...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...iwx...grr...ind...lot...ilx... lat...lon 41648351 41218338 40108486 39548748 40328808 41388749 42028618 42898511 43298415 43538376 43948267 42918220 41648351 hr. 12:30 p.m. EDT radar snapshot. Precip is moving northeast. Currently, nothing is warned. !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7737/17977770780_aa8b29b57f.jpg! br. Northern Indiana NWS special weather statement that includes Fulton and Henry counties. q. Special Statement Statement as of 12:23 PM EDT on May 27, 2015 ... Scattered thunderstorms developing with gusty winds possible this afternoon... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio through mid afternoon. The stronger showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 50 mph... small hail... and brief heavy downpours. An isolated severe thunderstorm will also be possible this afternoon... with strong gusty winds as the main threat. Anyone with outdoor plans this afternoon should be prepared to take shelter. q.. hr. Det/Pon NWS Special Statement Statement as of 12:52 PM EDT on May 27, 2015 ... Significant weather advisory for Monroe and northeastern Lenawee counties until 145 PM EDT... At 1251 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Britton... or near Blissfield... moving northeast at 40 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. This strong thunderstorm will be near... Deerfield and Britton around 1255 PM EDT. Petersburg around 100 PM EDT. Dundee and Ida around 110 PM EDT. Milan around 115 PM EDT. Maybee around 120 PM EDT. Carleton around 135 PM EDT. Flat Rock around 145 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this storm include Ridgeway... Woodland Beach... Macon... Azalia... Estral Beach... South Rockwood... Oakville... Scofield... Holloway and Newport. This storm may intensify... so be certain to monitor local radio and TV stations... as well as local cable TV outlets... for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. Lat... Lon 4180 8391 4207 8399 4209 8329 4203 8319 4202 8319 4203 8317 4200 8318 4201 8321 4199 8321 4197 8325 4192 8327 4194 8331 4192 8334 4189 8334 4190 8338 4189 8337 time... Mot... loc 1651z 245deg 33kt 4193 8386 hr. Det/Pon NWS issued a special weather statement that includes Lenawee and Monroe counties. q. Special Statement Statement as of 12:52 PM EDT on May 27, 2015 ... Significant weather advisory for Monroe and northeastern Lenawee counties until 145 PM EDT... At 1251 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Britton... or near Blissfield... moving northeast at 40 mph. Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. This strong thunderstorm will be near... Deerfield and Britton around 1255 PM EDT. Petersburg around 100 PM EDT. Dundee and Ida around 110 PM EDT. Milan around 115 PM EDT. Maybee around 120 PM EDT. Carleton around 135 PM EDT. Flat Rock around 145 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this storm include Ridgeway... Woodland Beach... Macon... Azalia... Estral Beach... South Rockwood... Oakville... Scofield... Holloway and Newport. This storm may intensify... so be certain to monitor local radio and TV stations... as well as local cable TV outlets... for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. q.. br. 12:55 p.m. EDT radar snapshot. Nothing warned yet, but coverage and intensity of the cells are obviously increasing. !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8789/18167293381_2a6671fa88.jpg! I guess that all is well in Lucas and Wood counties, since no statements have been issued by the Cle NWS. hr. Severe Thunderstorm Warning Statement as of 1:00 PM EDT on May 27, 2015 The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Monroe County in southeastern Michigan... * until 215 PM EDT * at 1259 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm was located near Dundee... moving northeast at 40 mph. Hazard... 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. Source... radar indicated. Impact... hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs... siding and trees. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Ida around 110 PM EDT. Maybee around 115 PM EDT. Carleton around 130 PM EDT. Flat Rock around 140 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Woodland Beach... Samaria... La Salle... Azalia... Estral Beach... South Rockwood... Oakville... Scofield... Newport and Toledo beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. hr. For the Toledo area ... Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Statement as of 1:10 PM EDT on May 27, 2015 q. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana southeast lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Erie * effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible Summary... thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon while moving east across the watch area. Damaging outflow winds will be the primary hazard with these storms. Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. q.. severe thunderstorm watch outline update for ws 228 nws storm prediction center norman ok 110 pm edt wed may 27 2015 severe thunderstorm watch 228 is in effect until 700 pm edt for the following locations ohc003-005-011-033-039-041-043-051-063-065-069-077-083-091-093- 095-101-107-117-123-125-137-139-143-147-149-159-161-171-173-175- 272300- /o.new.kwns.sv.a.0228.150527t1710z-150527t2300z/ oh . ohio counties included are allen ashland auglaize crawford defiance delaware erie fulton hancock hardin henry huron knox logan lorain lucas marion mercer morrow ottawa paulding putnam richland sandusky seneca shelby union van wert williams wood wyandot !https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7729/17546002563_8bc1c5f89f.jpg! hr. For southern Henry County ... Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Statement as of 1:15 PM EDT on May 27, 2015 q. The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... southern Henry County in Northwest Ohio... * until 200 PM EDT * at 114 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm was located near Holgate... and moving northeast at 25 mph. Hazard... quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Source... radar indicated. Impact... hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs... siding and trees. * Locations impacted include... Holgate... Deshler... McClure... New Bavaria... Gallup... Hamler... Elery... Malinta and Grelton. q.. hr. Severe Thunderstorm Warning Statement as of 1:20 PM EDT on May 27, 2015 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Lucas County in northwestern Ohio... * until 215 PM EDT * at 120 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm was located near Delta... or near Wauseon... moving northeast at 45 mph. Hazard... 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. Source... radar indicated. Impact... hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs... siding and trees. * Locations impacted include... Perrysburg... Oregon... Sylvania... Waterville... Whitehouse... Holland... Maumee... Ottawa Hills... Berkey... Harbor View and Neapolis. hr. More rain is headed our way. Currently, parts of Defiance, Fulton, Henry, and Williams counties are under a severe thunderstorm warning. And now a severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for central Wood County. Thus far, I think that only moderate to heavy rain fell over Toledo between 1:30 and 2:00 p.m. 2:00 p.m. EDT radar snapshot. Rain is moving northeast. !https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8835/17547420063_8757a4488c.jpg! br. Some power outages have been reported, especially in northwest Toledo, the area bordered by roads Alexis, Talmadge, Sylvania, and Douglas. I assume that these are new and not leftovers from yesterday. http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/oh.html hr. A few local storm reports, including the one that JustaSooner referenced. fence.preliminary local storm report national weather service cleveland oh 228 pm edt wed may 27 2015 ..time... ...event... ...city location... ...lat.lon... ..date... ....mag.... ..county location..st.. ...source.... ..remarks.. 0138 pm tstm wnd dmg 1 wsw sylvania 41.71n 83.72w 05/27/2015 lucas oh broadcast media several utility poles and wires down. 0157 pm tstm wnd dmg 5 nw toledo 41.72n 83.65w 05/27/2015 lucas oh public several large limbs down. 0220 pm hail 3 w pemberville 41.41n 83.52w 05/27/2015 e1.00 inch wood oh trained spotter 0210 pm hail bowling green 41.38n 83.65w 05/27/2015 e0.75 inch wood oh trained spotter hail covering the ground. fence.. hr. JustaSooner post at 3:03 p.m. q. Radar update... Storm over Southern/Central Lucas into Northern/Central Wood is marginal to be severe. Winds up to 50 and some small hail over PBurg into Rossford and Oregon posible. Next storm southwest of Defiance hail up to an inch possible. Small inflow area developing on this with unobstructed air to the south. Could see hail size increase and possibly a quick spin up with this if it can get established. Damaging winds will be possible with this regardless if the meso gets any tighter. Everything moving ENE at 40-45 mph. q.. !http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/27-001.PNG! hr. 258 PM EDT Wed may 27 2015 The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... eastern Defiance County in Northwest Ohio... Henry County in Northwest Ohio... eastern Paulding County in west central Ohio... northern Putnam County in west central Ohio... * until 400 PM EDT * at 254 PM EDT... severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 9 miles east of Hicksville to Paulding to 7 miles southeast of Payne... and moving east at 40 mph. Another severe thunderstorm was developing 2 miles northeast of Paulding... moving northeast at 35 mph. Hazard... quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Source... radar indicated. Impact... hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs... siding and trees. * Locations impacted include... Defiance... Napoleon... Continental... Holgate... Liberty Center... Leipsic... McClure... Deshler... Sherwood... The Bend... Broughton... Charloe... Melrose... Brunersburg... Oakwood... Arthur... Jewell... Independence... Ayersville and Standley. hr. Damaging wind threat increasing with the storm over Holgate. WIll move into Wood County here in 15 minutes. Locations in the path will be Cusar, Rudolph, Portage, and Bradner. BG might get clipped on the south side if this takes a more northerly jog. ! posted by JustaSooner on May 27, 2015 at 03:22:57 pm #toledo #weather