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Toledo Weather - Sat, May 30, 2015 #toledo #weather hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 636 am edt sat may 30 2015 ohz003-006>009-017>019-311045- lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie oh-hancock-seneca-huron- 636 am edt sat may 30 2015 this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central ohio and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight showers and thunderstorms...some of which will produce heavy rainfall...will develop this afternoon and continue into this evening. the heavy rainfall could lead to ponding of water on area roadways or minor flooding. one to two inches of rainfall is possible through tonight. storm motion will be to the northeast at around 20 mph. a few thunderstorms today could have strong gusty winds approaching severe limits. .days two through seven...sunday through friday low pressure will track northeast along a stalled frontal boundary on sunday bringing another round of rain. this rainfall could cause additional ponding of water and minor flooding of poor drainage areas. there will be a high risk or rip currents along the lake erie shoreline on saturday. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected through tonight. $$ page created: May 30, 2015 - 7:00 a.m. EDT hr. TOL: May 30, 2015 6:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 68 F Humidity : 87% Wind Speed : SSW 8 mph Barometer : 30.01 in Dewpoint: 64 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. fxus61 kcle 300909 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 509 am edt sat may 30 2015 synopsis... moisture will spread north across the area today and interact with a cold front approaching from the north. this frontal boundary will stall in the vicinity of lake erie overnight with a wave of low pressure tracking northeast along the boundary on sunday. the front will push south on sunday night with high pressure building overhead on tuesday. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... the forecast area remains in the warm sector ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. water vapor imagery shows a potent upper level trough pushing south across ontario while a plume of moisture can be seen spreading north up the mississippi valley. this moisture which is just starting to sneak into nw indiana will be directed eastward with time as the trough pushes south this afternoon. the surface front itself will be slow to arrive...but moisture will increase this afternoon and some leading energy or even remnant support from upstream convection will help to initiate convection this afternoon. some of the high resolution models seem a little too fast with activity developing this afternoon and think activity will follow more of a diurnal cycle...increasing in coverage this afternoon. pw values are forecast to increase to around 1.70 inches as the deeper moisture arrives. instability may be a little better out ahead of the front where there may be more sun. models showing around 1000 j/kg of ml cape developing this afternoon and expect the greatest coverage of thunderstorms to be focused from northwest ohio...extending ne towards cleveland and erie by this evening. storm motion today will be to the ne at about 20 knots which will could result in some training of storms. due to the threat of training...moderate storm motion and enhanced precipitable water values...expecting some thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall. the coverage of the more robust convection is still somewhat hard to determine so did not want to go with any flood watches...but will need to keep an eye on rainfall this afternoon/evening. added a mention of heavy rain possible with thunderstorms to the favored areas. the storm prediction center also has the area in a marginal risk for severe storms with wind gusts being the primary threat. this would be mainly in the form of a wet microburst with limited organization today. one question will be if it tends to propagate to the south with time towards the better instability so that will be something to watch which may help reduce training. warm mid- levels may limit the southward progression though. && short term /6 pm this evening through tuesday night/... convection will likely continue into the evening with a decreasing trend as we lose diurnal support...before the next wave rides north along the front on sunday. this should place a swath of rain on the northwest flank of the low with thunderstorms possible in the east ahead of it. did raise temperatures in ne ohio and lower them towards toledo. models are placing a 1.50-2.00 maxima of rain to the north of the storm track but this may end up clipping northwest ohio and then largely passing north of our area. depending on how much rain we receive today...we may need to consider a flood watch for sunday if a secondary round of heavy rain is expected. a limiting factor for the heavy rain could be the intrusion of a mid-level dry slot as seen on the gfs so we are still trying to pin down the track of the highest qpf. the front will eventually be pulled south behind the departing wave on monday evening with any lingering precipitation becoming light. much cooler temperatures expected on monday with highs struggling to reach the low 60s. high pressure will build southeast overhead on tuesday with partly to mostly sunny skies helping temperatures recover to the 70s except 60s near lake erie. a complicated forecast is expected this period trying to time the convective development ahead and along a cold front for saturday and the development and movement of a wave on the stalled front south of the region sunday into monday. && long term /wednesday through friday/... in general...the models have upper ridging over the area until late fri when a weak trough is shown moving east thru the lakes. dry air is in place on wed then by fri enough moisture appears to have moved back into the area for sct shra/tsra to develop. near normal temps on wed should increase to above normal by fri as east winds turn south. && aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/... some patchy mvfr fog may develop toward daybreak for a few hours otherwise vfr will prevail with patches of higher clouds and widely sct shra the rest of the night. the approach of a cold front will trigger sct shra/tsra to develop on sat...mainly in a west to east fashion. the short term models indicate that a band of convection tries to develop near cle around 13 to 14z then pushes east into nw pa thru 17z. this may be something to focus on but for now will keep tafs broad-brushed but by mid to late afternoon...the storms should become numerous and continue thru 06z. the cold front should drop se across most of the taf sites by 06z causing sw winds of 10 t0 20 knots to turn nw to north at 5 to 15 knots. outlook...non vfr possible likely sunday. && marine... a cold front will drop se across lake erie this evening causing sw winds of 10 to 20 knots to shift to nw then ne and increase to 15 to 25 knots for sunday. numerous tsra will occur with the frontal passage so beware. a sca will likely be needed for the end of tonight thru sun eve. winds and waves will gradually diminish sun night into tue as high pressure pushes into the lake. the high should provide light e to ne winds on wed as it begins to shift east of the lake. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... pa...none. ny...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...kec near term...kec short term...kec long term...adams aviation...adams marine...adams hr. Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: May 30, 2015 5:55 am Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. West wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms before 3am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 53. North wind 8 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 55. Breezy, with a northeast wind 21 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 64. North wind around 14 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 71. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 77. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.