Toledo weather Sun Jun 7 2015 #toledo #weather hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 415 am edt sun jun 7 2015 lez142-143-162-163-ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-080815- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands-lucas-wood- ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot- 415 am edt sun jun 7 2015 this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening. the threat for severe thunderstorms will be associated with a thunderstorm complex. right now...it is too early to determine where exactly the complex will move through the area. the main threat will be damaging winds. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. $$ Tol Jun 7, 2015 5:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 49 F Humidity : 97% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 29.99 in Dewpoint: 48 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles External Link : 3-day history (near Lambertville) Jun 7, 2015 5:35 am Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 52 F Humidity : 88% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 30.00 in Dewpoint: 48 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. spc ac 070559 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1259 am cdt sun jun 07 2015 valid 071200z - 081200z ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms today into this evening across parts of northern and central illinois...northern and central indiana...and extreme southwest lower michigan... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the enh risk area across the southern great lakes and oh valley through the lower mo valley to parts of the central and southern high plains... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms extending from the great lakes and oh valley to the central and southern high plains... ...summary... severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the lower great lakes and ohio valley region to the central and southern high plains...with the greatest potential across northern and central portions of illinois and indiana...and far southwest lower michigan. ...synopsis... a midlevel speed max will cross portions of the middle/upper ms valley and great lakes region on the south side of a broad/amplifying trough across the upper/middle ms valley and great lakes region. a related surface low will advance across parts of nrn wi and upper mi into adjacent ontario...reaching swrn quebec by 12z monday. a cold front extending sw of the surface low to the co rockies front range will advance east and south toward lower mi...into the midwest...lower mo valley and through the central plains. the leading edge of the warm sector will advance nnewd across srn and ern portions of the great lakes region...establishing a broad corridor of rich gulf return moisture ahead of the cold front. meanwhile...a midlevel trough will elongate ene/wsw over parts of the great basin to central rockies...between flanking ridges over the srn plains and nwrn states. ...srn great lakes/oh and mid ms valleys... an ongoing mcs...possibly producing strong to severe storms...should be moving through ern wi...far nrn il and west-central il per recent hrrr runs/00z nam/12z ecmwf. moderate-strong instability is expected across the warm sector...given low-level moistening /surface dew points in the mid-upper 60s/ as far east as srn lower mi and wrn oh and diabatic heating. the leading extent of the early morning mcs should re-intensify it reaches swrn lower mi and nrn il /including the chicago metro area/ by early afternoon. effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt oriented generally parallel to the convective outflow boundary suggests line segments/bowing structures as the primary storm mode with damaging winds the primary threat. however...enhanced low-level shear along modestly strong swly low-level winds will favor a tornado threat. the potential exists for afternoon storms to congeal into a wsw/ene-elongated quasi-linear mcs through the early evening hours. this activity should be largely oriented parallel to the mean cloud-layer flow...while gradually spreading esewd/sewd into parts of central il...central indiana...nwrn oh...sern il and parts of wrn oh. damaging winds and marginally severe hail will remain possible with this activity as convection regenerates/spreads into a moist/moderately unstable air mass. ...portions of nrn/central mo wwd to ern co... ascent supporting convection will be primarily confined to low-level convergence processes related to the cold front and the trailing extent of the outflow boundary attendant to the wi/nrn il mcs as it settles swd. isolated to widely scattered tstms will likely develop near these boundaries and wwd to diurnally enhanced orographic circulations over the co front range and moist/upslope flow to its e. the presence of 25-35 kt of deep shear will have the potential to support organized/sustained convective structures/possible supercells. in the absence of a strong equatorward surge of low theta-e air...convection should also evolve behind the cold front in parts of e-cntrl co into nrn ks and perhaps far srn neb where post-frontal directional-flow variability in the low-levels will bolster deep shear /potential for organized storms/. a strengthening swly llj from ok into sern ks and mo may aid in sustaining tstms through the evening into the early overnight period across sern ks to central mo with a lingering threat for strong to severe storms. ..peters/dean.. 06/07/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z