Toledo weather Sun Jun 7 2015 #toledo #weather hazardous weather outlook national weather service cleveland oh 415 am edt sun jun 7 2015 lez142-143-162-163-ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-080815- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands-lucas-wood- ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot- 415 am edt sun jun 7 2015 this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie and northwest ohio. .day one...today and tonight. there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening. the threat for severe thunderstorms will be associated with a thunderstorm complex. right now...it is too early to determine where exactly the complex will move through the area. the main threat will be damaging winds. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .spotter information statement... spotter activation may be needed. $$ Tol Jun 7, 2015 5:52 am Weather : Fair Temperature : 49 F Humidity : 97% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 29.99 in Dewpoint: 48 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles External Link : 3-day history (near Lambertville) Jun 7, 2015 5:35 am Weather : Partly Cloudy Temperature : 52 F Humidity : 88% Wind Speed : Calm Barometer : 30.00 in Dewpoint: 48 F Visibility : 10.00 statute miles hr. spc ac 070559 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 1259 am cdt sun jun 07 2015 valid 071200z - 081200z ...there is an enh risk of svr tstms today into this evening across parts of northern and central illinois...northern and central indiana...and extreme southwest lower michigan... ...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the enh risk area across the southern great lakes and oh valley through the lower mo valley to parts of the central and southern high plains... ...there is a mrgl risk of svr tstms extending from the great lakes and oh valley to the central and southern high plains... ...summary... severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the lower great lakes and ohio valley region to the central and southern high plains...with the greatest potential across northern and central portions of illinois and indiana...and far southwest lower michigan. ...synopsis... a midlevel speed max will cross portions of the middle/upper ms valley and great lakes region on the south side of a broad/amplifying trough across the upper/middle ms valley and great lakes region. a related surface low will advance across parts of nrn wi and upper mi into adjacent ontario...reaching swrn quebec by 12z monday. a cold front extending sw of the surface low to the co rockies front range will advance east and south toward lower mi...into the midwest...lower mo valley and through the central plains. the leading edge of the warm sector will advance nnewd across srn and ern portions of the great lakes region...establishing a broad corridor of rich gulf return moisture ahead of the cold front. meanwhile...a midlevel trough will elongate ene/wsw over parts of the great basin to central rockies...between flanking ridges over the srn plains and nwrn states. ...srn great lakes/oh and mid ms valleys... an ongoing mcs...possibly producing strong to severe storms...should be moving through ern wi...far nrn il and west-central il per recent hrrr runs/00z nam/12z ecmwf. moderate-strong instability is expected across the warm sector...given low-level moistening /surface dew points in the mid-upper 60s/ as far east as srn lower mi and wrn oh and diabatic heating. the leading extent of the early morning mcs should re-intensify it reaches swrn lower mi and nrn il /including the chicago metro area/ by early afternoon. effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt oriented generally parallel to the convective outflow boundary suggests line segments/bowing structures as the primary storm mode with damaging winds the primary threat. however...enhanced low-level shear along modestly strong swly low-level winds will favor a tornado threat. the potential exists for afternoon storms to congeal into a wsw/ene-elongated quasi-linear mcs through the early evening hours. this activity should be largely oriented parallel to the mean cloud-layer flow...while gradually spreading esewd/sewd into parts of central il...central indiana...nwrn oh...sern il and parts of wrn oh. damaging winds and marginally severe hail will remain possible with this activity as convection regenerates/spreads into a moist/moderately unstable air mass. ...portions of nrn/central mo wwd to ern co... ascent supporting convection will be primarily confined to low-level convergence processes related to the cold front and the trailing extent of the outflow boundary attendant to the wi/nrn il mcs as it settles swd. isolated to widely scattered tstms will likely develop near these boundaries and wwd to diurnally enhanced orographic circulations over the co front range and moist/upslope flow to its e. the presence of 25-35 kt of deep shear will have the potential to support organized/sustained convective structures/possible supercells. in the absence of a strong equatorward surge of low theta-e air...convection should also evolve behind the cold front in parts of e-cntrl co into nrn ks and perhaps far srn neb where post-frontal directional-flow variability in the low-levels will bolster deep shear /potential for organized storms/. a strengthening swly llj from ok into sern ks and mo may aid in sustaining tstms through the evening into the early overnight period across sern ks to central mo with a lingering threat for strong to severe storms. ..peters/dean.. 06/07/2015 click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z hr. link fxus61 kcle 071144 afdcle area forecast discussion national weather service cleveland oh 744 am edt sun jun 7 2015 synopsis... high pressure over the coast of maine will continue to move east today. a cold front will move east over the area late tonight into monday morning. a trough of low pressure will follow the cold front and linger over the area through monday night. a ridge of high pressure will build east tuesday and wednesday into the local area. another cold front will move east across the area wednesday night. && near term /until 6 pm this evening/... current forecast looks reasonable so will only make some minor changes to the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the east. decided to take this out as best chance will be in the west ahead of the cold front. latest spc discussion talks about possible convective system moving east across the area later this afternoon and evening. still not sure exactly where this thing will track at this time. latest satellite imagery shows the coldest cloud tops starting to take a dive toward the southeast. if this trend continues...then bulk of activity may remain south of the forecast area. previous discussion... a warm front will lift north across the local area this morning. warm air advection will take place across the forecast area today in the wake of high pressure. the warm air advection will bring with it an increase in dew points resulting in higher humidity. dew points should climb into the middle 60s all areas except extreme east by this afternoon. due to the instability...cant rule out a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. as warm air advection takes place...expecting highs to be much warmer than yesterday and should max out in the middle 80s west to upper 70s in the east. south to southwest flow behind the warm front should keep the lake breeze at bay during the day. && short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/... cold front approaches from the west this evening and showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front will spread from west to east. severe thunderstorm threat appears it should remain over the western portions of the area tonight. the storm prediction center brings the enhanced risk as far east as the indiana ohio border and a slight risk over the western quarter of the forecast area. cold frontal passage will occur around sunrise tomorrow morning. the front will push east and will be followed by a trough of low pressure. the trough will linger over the area through monday night. a weak ridge of high pressure is expected to build east over the forecast area tuesday with a return back to fair weather. this will be short lived as yet another cold front approaches from the west to the forecast area wednesday night. the front is expected be very moisture starved but cant rule out a few showers or thunderstorms along the area of convergence with the front. lows overnight ahead of the cold front should be quite mild...especially in the east. some locations may stay around 70 for lows. further west...as showers and thunderstorms along with the beginning of the cold air advection arrives...expecting lows to be a bit cooler there. air mass behind the cold front is not very cold at all and expecting to see temperatures drop back into the 70s for highs monday and 60s for lows monday night. warm air advection returns by wednesday as ridge moves east of the region. && long term /thursday through saturday/... models differ on the locations of a weakening cold front as it crosses the area wednesday night into thursday. for now will go with slight chances in the grids and adjust the forecast as we get closer to thursday. upper level ridging then increases but the lower levels will become more humid. afternoon heating may be enough to generate a few thunderstorms but without a trigger under the increasing 5h heights it seems difficult to go with more than isolated to scattered thunder chances. the lake breeze could play a roll for convective development on friday. have gone with afternoon/evening thunder chances through the long term. the increased upper level heights mentioned above should lead to warm conditions. believe the entire region will see highs in the 80s. && aviation /12z sunday through thursday/... drier air remains in place as high pressure moves eastward across ny state. southerly winds this morning. winds will become gusty by afternoon across the west and central portions of the area. vfr conditions are expected through the day with only a few cumulus during the afternoon. the cumulus will generally be across the west but could develop across the central late afternoon. as a cold front moves closer to the region late sunday afternoon into the evening hours some thunderstorms will be possible...mainly across nw ohio. most locations will not see any thunder until after dark. outlook...non vfr at times monday with showers and thunderstorms. showers and thunderstorms may bring non vfr conditions back to the region wednesday night into thursday. && marine... high pressure over the eastern great lakes will move off the east coast today. southerly winds will increase ahead of a cold front today with winds approaching small craft criteria across the western basin this afternoon. later shifts will need to monitor this. the cold front will cross the lake on monday with increased waves due to the longer fetch across lake erie. at this point it appears the waves will remain just under small craft advisory criteria. however the swimming risk will reach the moderate category on monday for the central and eastern portions of lake erie. another cold front will sag south across the lower great lakes late wednesday night or thursday. && cle watches/warnings/advisories... oh...none. pa...none. marine...none. && $$ synopsis...lombardy near term...lombardy short term...lombardy long term...mullen aviation...mullen marine...mullen